The United States Has Less Leverage Over Israel Than You Think

Harvard International Relations professor Stephen Walt writes in Foreign Policy Mar. 21, 2024:

Biden’s critics assume that the United States has enormous leverage over this situation and that a firm word from the president—combined with threats to curtail or halt U.S. aid—would quickly force Israel to change course. That assumption deserves scrutiny, however, because weaker states often refuse to comply with U.S. demands, and, sometimes, they get away with it. Serbia rejected NATO demands at the Rambouillet conference in 1999; Iran and North Korea have endured sanctions for decades and remain defiant; Nicolás Maduro is still in power in Venezuela; and Bashar al-Assad still rules in Syria despite earlier U.S. insistence that he “must go.”

These leaders were able to defy U.S. pressure because they were not dependent on American support, and each believed they had more to lose by complying than by hanging tough. But close U.S. allies sometimes resist U.S. pressure, too, as Germany did when it kept building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline despite U.S. objections. Even highly dependent clients can be surprisingly stubborn: Afghan leaders repeatedly failed to implement reforms demanded by U.S. officials, and Ukrainian commanders reportedly rejected U.S. advice when planning their ill-fated counteroffensive last summer. Kabul and Kyiv were almost totally reliant on U.S. material support, but Washington couldn’t get them to do what it wanted. Similarly, Israeli leaders from David Ben-Gurion to Benjamin Netanyahu have resisted U.S. pressure on numerous occasions—though not always—which suggests that the amount of leverage the United States possesses at any given moment depends on more than the sheer magnitude of U.S. largesse. We should not automatically assume that a phone call from Biden and a threat to cut off U.S. aid would get Israel to do America’s bidding…

Providing client states with economic and military assistance, diplomatic protection, and other benefits gives patrons considerable leverage when they have a near-monopoly on the aid being provided; they care nearly as much as the client about the issue(s) at hand; and there are no domestic obstacles to manipulating the level of aid in order to pressure the client to comply. Leverage decreases if a client can get similar help from someone else, if it cares far more than its patron about the issues in dispute and is therefore willing to pay the price of reduced support, or if the patron cannot reduce its support due to domestic or institutional constraints.

These conditions explain why and how some client states are able and willing to defy the patrons’ preferences. If the patron believes that a weaker ally is intrinsically valuable (e.g., because it is in a vital strategic location, shares similar values, etc.), or if the client’s success is tied to its patron’s reputation or prestige, then the patron will be reluctant to cut a client off even if it is being stubbornly defiant. The Soviet Union had lots of trouble keeping its various Arab client states in line, for example, because they were critical to its influence in the Middle East and the Kremlin didn’t want them to fail (or to realign with the United States). Similarly, the United States could not pressure South Vietnamese or Afghan leaders by threatening to withdraw its support, because it knew these clients would collapse if it did. Presidents Nguyen van Thieu of Vietnam and Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan understood this quite well, of course, which is why Washington found it nearly impossible to control their behavior…

I conclude that Washington does have lots of potential leverage here, and the barriers to using it are lower than they have been in the past. But because Israel’s current leaders remain highly resolved on this issue, even credible threats to reduce U.S. support might not lead them to alter course significantly. Nor is it clear if Biden or his advisors can make the mental adjustments necessary to move from their current failed approach to something more effective. Instead of focusing on whether pressure on Israel would work, the real question to ask is simply whether it is in America’s strategic or moral interest to be actively complicit in a vast and worsening humanitarian tragedy. Even if the United States cannot stop it, it doesn’t have to help make it worse.

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The Emergence Of Conspirituality

Here’s an important paper from 2011 by Charlotte Ward & Prof. David Voas in the Journal of Contemporary Religion, 26:1, 103-121:

The female-dominated New Age (with its positive focus on self) and the male-dominated realm of conspiracy theory (with its negative focus on global politics) may seem antithetical. There is a synthesis of the two, however, that we call ‘conspirituality’. We define, describe, and analyse this hybrid system of belief; it has been noticed before without receiving much scholarly attention. Conspirituality is a rapidly growing web movement expressing an ideology fuelled by political disillusionment and the popularity of alternative worldviews. It has international celebrities, bestsellers, radio and TV stations. It offers a broad politico-spiritual
philosophy based on two core convictions, the first traditional to conspiracy theory, the second rooted in the New Age: 1) a secret group covertly controls, or is trying to control, the political and social order, and 2) humanity is undergoing a ‘paradigm shift’ in consciousness. Proponents believe that the best strategy for dealing with the threat of a totalitarian ‘new world order’ is to act in accordance with an awakened ‘new paradigm’ worldview.

The growth of industry, cities, and administrative structures has led to the separation and specialisation of social institutions. Individuals themselves occupy distinct roles (in the family, workplace, and community) that may no longer overlap. This social and personal fragmentation has caused conventional religion to become disconnected from everyday life. Alternative ideologies are available, however, offering holistic worldviews that contest the political pragmatism, economic rationalism, scientific empiricism, and social dislocation characteristic of the modern age. Examples include the Romantic movement that began in the late eighteenth century and the counter-culture of the 1960s.

In this article we focus on two forms of holistic thought that are increasingly prevalent in the contemporary period. One is what has variously been labelled the New Age, alternative spirituality or the holistic milieu (Heelas and Woodhead). These groups embrace the idea of a person as an integrated whole, with mind, body, and spirit subject to a common set of principles. The second ideology is conspiracy theory. Here one finds a denial of contingency, the discovery of patterns in events that might otherwise seem to be random, and the attribution of agency to hidden forces (Aaronovitch).

Barkun identifies three principles found in nearly every conspiracy theory: a) nothing happens by accident, b) nothing is as it seems, c) everything is connected. Similar principles are fundamental to much New Age thought and alternative spirituality. These worldviews make public and personal life respectively seem less subject to random forces and therein lies part of their appeal…

We argue that conspirituality is a politico-spiritual philosophy based on two core convictions, the first traditional to conspiracy theory, the second rooted in the New Age:
(1) A secret group covertly controls, or is trying to control, the political and
social order (Fenster).
(2) Humanity is undergoing a ‘paradigm shift’ in consciousness, or awareness, so solutions to (1) lie in acting in accordance with an awakened ‘new paradigm’ worldview.

Because conspirituality appears to be an internet-based movement with a relatively modest presence in ‘real life’, web ethnography is the method of choice.

Conspirituality appears to be a means by which political cynicism is tempered with spiritual optimism. It curbs the belligerence of conspiracy theory and the self-absorption of the New Age.

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Decoding Andrew Huberman (3-29-24)

02:00 Andrew Huberman of Stanford University, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/andrew-huberman-podcast-stanford-joe-rogan.html
08:00 Candace Owens leaves the Daily Wire,
https://decoding-the-gurus.captivate.fm/episode/mini-decoding-the-descent-of-jordan-b-peterson
24:00 The Pseudoscience of Andrew Huberman, https://slate.com/technology/2024/03/andrew-huberman-huberman-lab-health-advice-podcast-debunk.html
27:00 The descent of Jordan Peterson, https://decoding-the-gurus.captivate.fm/episode/mini-decoding-the-descent-of-jordan-b-peterson
1:11:15 The business of podcasting, https://www.patreon.com/DecodingTheGurus/posts
1:19:10 Tucker Carlson skeptical of American aid to Israel
1:20:00 WP: U.S. signs off on more bombs, warplanes for Israel,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/29/us-weapons-israel-gaza-war/
1:23:00 Elliott Blatt calls in about his 8 weeks without coffee
1:28:00 Elliott Blatt severs a relationship
1:30:20 Elliott Blatt gets sued, loses in small claims court
1:43:00 Would you date a podcast bro? https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/06/style/dating-men-with-podcasts.html
1:46:20 WEHT to Mama JF Elora Patoine? https://www.thedailybeast.com/white-supremacist-vlogger-jean-francois-gariepys-partner-elora-patoine-has-been-missing-since-june
1:59:00 My world has gotten smaller
2:09:00 Shamans and gurus
Highlights, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=143746

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Decoding Left-Wing Livestreamers Destiny, Hasan Piker (3-24-24)

01:00 Why do people watch livestreams?
02:00 Hasan Piker is the most popular left-wing stream, as lame as Red Scare podcast, https://decoding-the-gurus.captivate.fm/episode/hasan-piker-a-swashbuckling-bromance
21:00 How Hasan Piker Became Our Generation’s Top Political Pundit, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oza5eNpWP00
23:30 Livestreamer Destiny doesn’t know much: https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1771765706993873080
45:00 India’s exploitative sugar industry, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/24/world/europe/india-sugar-cane-fields-child-labor-hysterectomies.html
47:00 Thinking for ourselves, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/24/opinion/politics-intellectual-humility.html
49:00 Free speech and anti-semitism, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/24/us/politics/kenneth-marcus-college-antisemitism-complaints.html
50:00 Biden can’t stop Israel’s Gaza invasion, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeAMSMhMrJQ
1:00:40 Russia is defeating NATO in Ukraine
1:03:45 American foreign policy is directed by a tiny elite against popular opinion
Usually presidents don’t matter much to your real life, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39_bpaaio1U
1:26:20 Devotional followers of favorite e-personalities such as Sam Harris, https://decoding-the-gurus.captivate.fm/episode/supplementary-material-2-dissident-dialogues-bloodbaths-genocidal-debates
1:06:00 Ukraine and a Trump presidency, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39_bpaaio1U
1:46:20 Decoding Academia: “Two leading COVID contrarians: Vinay Prasad and John Ioannidis” https://www.patreon.com/DecodingTheGurus/posts
1:58:00 Economist Ronald Coase, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Coase
2:08:30 Why do narcissists like conspiracy theories?
2:17:00 My experience with Modafinil, Aderall, ADHD
2:20:00 Israel and ethnic cleansing
2:31:00 Pessimists pay no price, https://www.ft.com/content/6b21b2a4-577f-4d8f-9b53-dfb8771ce4c8
2:36:40 Ben Braddock, crank: https://twitter.com/GraduatedBen/status/1770841563679039750
2:38:00 Fourth Black Female Harvard Scholar Accused of Plagiarism Amid Assault on DEI Initiatives, https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2024/3/22/cross-plagiarism-harvard-anonymous-complaint/
2:42:00 WEHT to Skip Bayless? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wggJHXJW7hw





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Let’s Go Gay For Gaza (3-17-24)

01:00 Gay for Gaza
03:00 Israel Is Doing A Great Job Minimizing Civilian Casualties In Gaza, https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-must-can-and-will-win-hamas-defeat-rafah-war-gaza-22e9a19d?mod=hp_opin_pos_3#cxrecs_s
06:00 Israel-Hamas war: IDF eliminates 15 terrorists in 24 hours, amid Hamas aid attack, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuvBbZt91AY
09:00 A WTF Moment in the Middle East (US Dock in GAZA?) || Peter Zeihan, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fagtI6MOCUo
20:00 Netanyahu must change Israel’s strategy against Hamas | Scott Lucas, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28dh9e4QAWM
24:00 NYT: How Trump’s Allies Are Winning the War Over Disinformation: Their claims of censorship have successfully stymied the effort to filter election lies online., https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/17/us/politics/trump-disinformation-2024-social-media.html
33:00 Obese Aussies, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtSMEWOOHbY
35:00 NRL’s Vegas stunt dazzles media, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pi22sRYZsoA
43:30 Russell Brand And The Conspiracy Grift, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eo4gIihETu8
1:14:20 Most comics are horrible people – Modern Day Philosophers podcast, https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/season-10-wrap-up-show-with-daniel-lobell-alex-fossella/id684158414?i=1000610898349
1:21:00 Omnibus: The Treble | BBC 1 1985, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmLXePXNNkA&t=2061s
1:24:00 Why Stimulant Medication Helps ADHD — and How Stigma Can Hurt, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38qpm6VKBFc
1:26:00 What if medication masks the underlying condition of natural death?
1:28:00 Emotional addiction and ADHD, https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/step-study-step-1-brendan-t-ireland/id1247514851?i=1000648791625
1:33:30 ADHD as a Performance Disorder, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58gU8tsxkkI
1:50:45 Adult ADHD What You Need to Know, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDgOmFd5SlE
1:58:00 ADHD Medications – Part II – Stimulants, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4kxqLw7WXc
2:00:00 My 2000 diagnosis of Narcissistic Personality Disorder, https://www.lukeford.net/luke_ford/bio/l17.htm
2:02:00 An ADHD Guide to Emotional Dysregulation and Rejection Sensitive Dysphoria (w/ William Dodson, M.D.), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klmxcj52PQQ
2:04:40 Driving a car is the most difficult skill most people master
2:06:50 Rejection sensitivity does not lend itself to research
2:09:00 Defining Features of ADHD That Everyone Overlooks: RSD, Hyperarousal, More (w/ Dr. William Dodson), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vycWIzURgZM
2:22:00 Deficient Emotional Self-Regulation: The Overlooked ADHD Symptom That Impacts Everything (Barkley), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nh-IpsDPizI
2:25:00 Build Your ADHD Emotional Resilience: Help for Adults Who Feel Deeply (with Tamara Rosier, Ph.D.), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWYtgBrO_ME
2:27:20 6 Principles for Raising a Child with ADHD (with Russell A. Barkley, Ph.D.), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52wQuMSUAkY
2:33:30 The Dark Philosophy of Cormac McCarthy, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHfHx9x2jg4

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