Scenes from the Passport Question

FICTION:

1.

Vienna, March 1938. Ruth Steiner’s grandmother, then nineteen, stands in a queue outside a consulate with her father, who holds a folder of documents against his chest under his coat. The family business is gone as of Tuesday. The apartment goes next. What the family has left is inside the folder: her father’s Argentine passport, kept current for twenty years out of a habit his brothers laughed at. The brothers stood in longer queues later, holding papers from one country only, the country that had turned on them.

Ruth grows up in Buenos Aires and then Miami on the moral of that queue. The moral costs money and time and she pays without complaint: her American passport, her Argentine one, the Austrian citizenship restored to descendants in 2020, renewed on schedule, stored in a fireproof box with copies in a cousin’s safe. Her friends call it paranoia. She calls it Tuesday. Somewhere in every century there is a queue, and the folder decides which one you stand in.

Whatever else the rooted say about her kind, this scene stands. The case for the second passport was written in 1938 and it has not been refuted. It has only been forgotten by people whose families never needed the folder.

2.

Julian Cross, 44, holds three passports and clears immigration at Changi in eleven minutes. British by birth, American by naturalization, Portuguese by a residency program that cost him five years of paperwork and one condo in Lisbon. His consulting practice bills in dollars, banks in Singapore, and answers to no single tax authority without a fight from two others.

The life delivers what it promises. When London prices him out, he works from Lisbon. When an American client needs a body in the room, the blue passport opens the fast lane. He has options the way other men have savings, and options compound: the best assignment, the best jurisdiction, the best school for his daughter, chosen from a menu three countries long. His grandfather worked one job in one town for one company that closed the year he retired. Julian looked at that life and drew the reasonable conclusion. Never depend on one of anything.

At dinner parties he says the future belongs to people like him, and the evidence in his bank statements agrees.

3.

Julian at 61. The practice sold, the money fine, the daughter in Melbourne with children he sees on a screen at hours governed by time zones. He learns that Pete Hollis died when the funeral is three weeks past, in an email forwarded twice before it found him, because no one was sure which address he used now or which country he was in.

He sits with that awhile in the Lisbon condo. Pete was the last friend from before the life, the one who knew him at twenty-five. Julian runs the inventory an accountant runs. Three passports. Property in three countries. Neighbors in none. In London he is a former resident, in Miami a tax question, in Lisbon a foreigner with good Portuguese. There is no one within four thousand miles who would notice inside a week if he stopped answering the phone, and no ground anywhere that expects his body. His grandfather, the one-town man, had a funeral that filled a church, and the men who carried the coffin had known him fifty years. Julian optimized every variable except the ones that turn out, late, to have been the point. The menu three countries long never listed them. They come only in the house pour, and only if you stay.

4.

Harlan Voss, 58, runs the hardware store in a river town of 4,100, and in the spring the river comes into the store to a depth of forty inches. It comes into half the town.

The people with options leave. Nothing shameful in it; the options were bought and paid for. What the town learns in the next eighteen months is who has options and who has the other thing. Harlan guts the store to the studs with his sons and reopens in a tent in the parking lot because the farmers still need parts in June whether the building stands or not. The school board, the volunteer fire department, the levee committee that meets Thursdays in the Methodist basement to fight the Corps of Engineers for a floodwall: every seat is filled by someone who cannot leave or will not, and from inside the basement the difference between cannot and will not stops mattering. Commitment does the same work either way.

The floodwall gets funded in year three. It gets funded because forty people showed up at hearings for three years, and the forty were the rooted, and they fought like people fight when the exit is bricked over. A man with a condo elsewhere attends one hearing. There is no cynicism in the observation, only arithmetic: voice is what people do when they cannot exit, and everything in the town that works, the levee, the school, the firehouse, was built by voices with nowhere else to go.

5.

A dinner party in a capital city, 2018, the year Ruth’s kind and Harlan’s kind stopped pretending to be one country. Twelve people, good wine, and a guest named Tom Brandt, up from a district that voted the way districts like his had started voting. The host, a think-tank man with an EU passport through an Irish grandmother, has been explaining that borders are a nineteenth-century technology and labor mobility is a human right and the losers of globalization need retraining.

Tom sets down his fork. “Can I ask you something. If this country goes bad, what do you do?”

“Bad how?”

“Any how. Crash, mob, the thing you’d call fascism. What do you do?”

The host laughs. “Worst case? Dublin, I suppose.”

“Right. And I do what?”

The table goes quiet in the way tables do when a bill arrives that no one budgeted. “You’re voting on my life,” Tom says, without heat, which makes it worse. “Trade, wars, borders, all of it. If your vote goes wrong, you have Dublin. If my vote goes wrong, I have the consequences. You’ve got no skin in this game and mine’s all in it. So when you tell me your judgment is better than mine because you’ve seen more of the world, I hear a man betting my house at a table he can walk away from.”

The host has answers, good ones, about interdependence and the wealth mobility creates. He gives them. They are true and they do not land, because Tom’s charge was never about economics. It was about reliability. A promise means one thing from a man who must stay for the outcome and another from a man who need not, and every rooted person at every table already knows this, and almost no one with a megaphone has ever had to learn it.

6.

Carol Wentz has taught calculus at the high school for thirty-one years, and every June she performs the town’s proudest ritual, which is also its bleeding. The scholarship winners stand on the gym stage. She claps hardest. She wrote the letters.

They go, as they should, to the state flagship and beyond, and the arithmetic of it runs in her head during the applause. The town paid for those minds, in property taxes and bake sales and thirty-one years of her Saturdays, and the return on the investment accrues to Chicago and Austin and Seattle, and once in a while to Singapore, where one of hers, a boy she taught limits to in 2004, now holds three passports and gives interviews about the future belonging to the mobile. The town keeps the ones the scholarships passed over. They fix the cars, staff the clinic, coach the teams, and pay the taxes that fund the next class of leavers.

She would not stop a single one of them. That is what makes it a bleeding and a ritual at once: the town’s love is measured in what it exports and its survival hangs on what refuses to be exported. The cosmopolitan skims a surplus that rootedness produced. Somebody raised him, schooled him, kept his streets safe and his water drinkable through the eighteen years before he became mobile, and the somebodies stayed, and the case against him is their unsent invoice.

7.

An office in a Caribbean capital, brochures fanned on a glass table. The salesman, blazer and lapel pin, walks a Russian client through the tiers. “Citizenship by investment. One hundred fifty thousand to the sustainable growth fund, or a real estate placement at two hundred. Passport in six months. Visa-free travel to 140 countries. No residency requirement. You never have to come here.”

“And my family?”

“Spouse and dependents, additional fees. Many clients add a second program in a second jurisdiction. Diversification.” He says the word the way Julian Cross says it, the way a wealth manager says it, and that is the tell. The product on the glass table is the same thing Ruth Steiner’s grandfather carried through the queue in Vienna, and it is nothing like it. His was a bond between a man and a country that would claim him. This is a commodity with a price sheet, loyalty unbundled from belonging, sold to men whose plan for every country is to hold it as an option and visit none of them as a home. Down the hall a clerk processes the papers of a nation she was born in, for buyers who will never learn the name of its second-largest town. The rooted have a word for a marriage entered this way. No one in the office uses it.

8.

The scenes do not cancel; they price each other. Ruth’s folder is unanswerable: when the state turns predator, the second passport is the difference between a queue that ends in Buenos Aires and one that ends elsewhere, and any account of rootedness that forgets 1938 is sentimentality. But the folder is insurance, and insurance priced across a society changes the society. Albert Hirschman (1915-2013), who fled the Gestapo on borrowed papers and knew both sides of the question in his body, put the trade in three words: exit kills voice. Julian’s menu, the host’s Dublin, the blazer’s price sheet, all of them drain the Methodist basement. Every polity runs on people who behave as if they cannot leave, and the ones who can leave ride on that behavior while pricing their own escape from it.

The reason the case against the cosmopolitan life goes unmade is in the making of cases. Books, columns, panels, and dinner parties belong to the people with the folders. Harlan is rebuilding a store. Carol is grading. Tom said his piece once, at a table where the wine was better than the welcome, and went home to the district that has to live with how everyone voted. The rooted do not write the argument. They are the argument, and they are usually too busy holding up the town to make it.

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Scenes from Human Resources

FICTION:

1.

Tuesday, 4:15 p.m. Priya Nair, 34, financial analyst, sits in a conference room with glass walls and tells the HR business partner about her director. The pattern took her six months to name: credit lifted from her models, meetings scheduled over her presentations, the comment at the offsite about her accent, delivered as a joke, received as a joke by everyone whose accent was not the joke.

The HR partner, a woman named Beth, takes notes on a legal pad and nods at the right places. “Thank you for bringing this forward. We take this seriously. We’ll look into it.”

Three weeks pass. Priya receives an email. The matter has been reviewed and appropriate action has been taken. Due to confidentiality, we cannot share details. Her director still runs the Monday meeting. He still has her model on his slides. Nothing she can see has changed except one thing: he no longer looks at her at all, which means he knows she went to the glass room, which means the confidential process leaked in exactly one direction.

She understands something now that the handbook never said. She thought she was filing a complaint. She was giving a deposition.

2.

Beth’s side of the glass. She is 41, one of three HR business partners for 900 employees, and Priya’s complaint is the fourth item on a Tuesday that started with a workers’ comp claim and will end with a termination review.

She believed Priya within ten minutes. That was the easy part. Then she did what her job requires: interviewed the director, who denied everything with the fluency of a man who has denied things before; interviewed two witnesses, who saw nothing, because people who report seeing things ride in the same boat as people who report things; and wrote a summary for Legal. Legal weighed it. The director’s team produced $40 million in revenue last year. The evidence was her word, his word, and a joke nobody would repeat on record.

The “appropriate action” was a documented coaching conversation. Beth sat in it. The director said “I hear you” four times and checked his phone twice. She wrote the confidentiality letter to Priya knowing how it would read on the other end, because she has been on the other end; she filed a complaint once, at a previous company, years ago.

She keeps a folder on her drive, a private one, where she logs the coaching conversations that fixed nothing, waiting for the day the pattern is long enough that Legal’s math changes. The folder has a name that would mean nothing in discovery. It is the only power she has: memory with a timestamp.

3.

Thursday, 9:00 a.m. Dave Kowalski’s calendar shows a meeting that appeared overnight: “Sync re: org update,” fifteen minutes, a conference line, an HR name he does not recognize. He has worked at the company nineteen years. He knows what a fifteen-minute meeting with an unknown HR name means. Everyone knows.

The call runs off a script. His position has been eliminated as part of a restructuring. The decision is final and does not reflect his performance. A packet will arrive by email covering severance, benefits continuation, and outplacement services. Does he have questions the script anticipates?

His laptop dies at 9:11, mid-call, the screen going to a lock icon while a voice tells him his contributions are valued. Nineteen years, and IT beat the goodbye by four minutes. He sits in his home office looking at the lock icon. His mug says WORLD’S OKAYEST GOLFER. The severance is eleven weeks. He learns from the packet that his health insurance runs out on the last day of the month, which is in nine days.

4.

The voice on Dave’s call belonged to Maria Santos, 38, senior HR manager, who ran twenty-two of those calls that day off a spreadsheet with names, tenure, and a column labeled “risk flag.” She did not build the list. Finance built the list in a model that scored positions, and a committee she never sat on approved it, and then the list came to her the way the ball comes to the last player in a relay: everyone else has finished running.

She fought for three names in the pre-meetings, the only lever she had. She won one. The other two were on Thursday’s calls.

Call eleven cried. Call fourteen went silent for so long she asked if he was still there. Call nineteen, a man her father’s age, thanked her, which was worse than the crying. Between calls she had four minutes to reset her voice. The script exists because Legal wrote it, and Legal wrote it because a stray sentence of comfort, “this isn’t fair, you deserved better,” becomes Exhibit A in a wrongful termination suit. So she says the sentences that protect the company from her own decency, twenty-two times, and drives home, and her husband asks how her day went, and she says fine, because the names are confidential and the weight is not transferable.

Sunday she will see call nineteen at the grocery store. He will nod at her. She will stand in the cereal aisle afterward for a while.

5.

Denise Carter’s sister, Angela, has a baby due in April and a company portal that will not accept her FMLA certification. The portal wants the form as a single PDF under 2 MB. Her doctor’s office faxes, and the fax-to-scan comes out at 2.4 MB, sideways. Upload three fails like uploads one and two. The portal’s error message says An error has occurred, a sentence the vendor charged six figures for.

She calls the benefits line. The benefits line is outsourced to a firm in another state. The representative can see her account and cannot fix the portal. He opens a ticket. The ticket has a number and a service level of five business days. Her leave starts in twelve. If the paperwork lands late, the leave becomes unapproved absence, and unapproved absence has its own paperwork, with teeth.

Angela is eight months pregnant, on hold, holding a phone in one hand and rotating a PDF with the other, doing the unpaid clerical labor of proving to a machine that she is having a child.

6.

The ticket lands with Grace Okonkwo, 29, benefits coordinator, one of two people administering benefits for 1,400 employees since the third position was eliminated in the restructuring that took Dave. The portal is not hers. The company bought it from a vendor whose salesman promised “self-service” and whose product delivers self-blame. Grace has a workaround for the file-size bug. She has had it for a year. The vendor’s fix is on a roadmap, and the roadmap is a place where fixes go to age.

She finds Angela’s ticket at 5:40 p.m., manually attaches the faxed form on the back end, approves the leave, and sends a confirmation with two sentences the script does not require: You’re all set. Congratulations on the baby. It takes her nine minutes. It is the fourteenth ticket like it this month.

Angela will read the confirmation and think the system finally worked. The system did not work. Grace worked, off script, after hours, patching by hand the machine that was sold as her replacement. Nobody measures the patch. The dashboard the executives see shows tickets closed within SLA, a green number, and the green number is Grace, invisible, staying late.

7.

One scene where both sides sit at the same table. An exit interview. Marcus, before Denver, sits across from Beth with nothing left to lose, which makes him the only kind of employee who tells HR the truth.

“You want honest feedback?”

“I do.”

“Nobody here trusts your department. People think you exist to protect the company.”

Beth clicks her pen once. “We do exist to protect the company.” She lets it sit there, the sentence her whole profession spends its conferences avoiding. “The company pays me. When your interests and the company’s line up, I can do a lot for you. Tuition money, a transfer, a manager problem the numbers make easy. When they don’t line up, I have a script. The people who get hurt are the ones who can’t tell which meeting they’re in.”

It is the most useful thing anyone at the company ever tells him. He gets it on his last day, from the one person whose honesty finally costs nothing, in the one meeting that was never confidential to begin with.

8.

Line the scenes up. Priya and Beth, Dave and Maria, Angela and Grace: each pair sits on opposite sides of the same event, and neither side built the machine between them. The employees meet a department; the department is three exhausted people and a spreadsheet built somewhere above them. HR holds a double mandate, care for the people and protection for the employer, and when the two conflict the paycheck decides, and the people in the chairs absorb the difference. The cruelty employees experience is mostly structure wearing a name tag. The pain HR carries is mostly conscience with no authority. Both sides go home tired from the same design, and the design goes home fine.

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Scenes from the Unsubscribe Economy

FICTION:

1.

Sunday night, 10:20 p.m. Dave Kowalski decides he watches Prime Video four times a year and pays for it twelve. He logs in. Signing up for Prime took one click. He remembers the click. It sat under the checkout button like a doorman holding the door.

Canceling begins in Account, then Prime Membership, then Manage Membership, then Update, Cancel and More, then End Membership. Each click loads a new page and each page has a job. The first page reminds him what he will lose: free shipping, Prime Video, Prime Music, Prime Reading, photo storage, and a grocery discount he has never used. The second page offers him a deal to stay. The third page suggests he switch to annual billing instead. The fourth page asks if he would rather pause. The buttons that keep his membership are yellow and wide. The button that ends it is a text link the color of dishwater.

Amazon’s own designers had a name for this flow. They called it Iliad, after a war that ran ten years. The FTC put the internal documents in a lawsuit. The designers knew what they built. They named it after the siege of Troy and shipped it.

Dave reaches the final page at 10:31. End Membership. A last banner: Are you sure? Your benefits end immediately. He is sure. Eleven minutes to undo one click.

2.

Renata Voss, two floors up in the same life, opens her Adobe account page. The freelance work dried up and $59.99 a month buys groceries now. She finds the Cancel Plan link, which took two searches and a support article, and clicks it.

A screen she has never seen before presents a number: $174. An early termination fee.

She reads it twice. She pays monthly. She has always paid monthly. The screen explains that her plan is an Annual Plan, Paid Monthly, and that canceling in month five of the contract year costs half the remaining months. The word “annual” had lived in the fine print at signup, below the fold, in the gray text where words go when a company needs them said and not heard.

“You’re charging me a fee to stop paying you,” she says to the screen.

The screen offers alternatives. Two months free if she stays. A cheaper Photography plan. A pause. The FTC sued Adobe over this fee and the hiding of it in 2024, and the Justice Department brought the case, and the flow in front of her is the flow the government lawyers described, still running, still gray.

She takes the two free months. She hates herself a little. In month seven the fee will be smaller. Adobe knows most people never come back for month seven.

3.

Marcus, from the cubicle next to Dave, moved to Denver in March. His gym membership stayed behind in Ohio.

The gym joined him to itself online in ninety seconds with a $1 down special. Leaving works differently. The website’s cancellation page says, in the tone of a shrug, that memberships may be canceled in person at your home club or by letter. Postal letter. Certified mail recommended.

His home club sits 1,200 miles behind him. He calls. The front desk kid is nice about it. “Yeah, you gotta come in or send the letter. Corporate policy.”

“I’m in Colorado.”

“Then the letter. Make sure it has your signature, your member ID, and give it like thirty days. Oh, and if it lands after the tenth, the next month still bills.”

Marcus, a man who deposits checks by photographing them, drives to a post office. He waits in line behind a woman mailing a birdcage. He pays $4.85 for certified mail and $3.65 for the return receipt, postage for the privilege of stopping a payment to a StairMaster he has not seen since winter. The gym bills him for April anyway. The letter landed on the twelfth.

4.

Crystal Marsh’s mother, Donna, subscribed to a newspaper during an election year. $4 a month for the first six months, said the ad. The seventh month billed $17, which is how the $4 worked.

Donna finds no cancel button in her account. The site instructs her to call or chat. The chat queue holds her for nineteen minutes, and then a retention agent named “Kevin B.” arrives with a script.

I see you’ve been a valued subscriber since 2024. Before you go, I can offer you 50% off for the next year.

“I just want to cancel.”

I understand. Many readers find our Games subscription a great lower-cost option at $5.99. Would that interest you?

“Cancel, please.”

I’ve applied a one-time loyalty credit to your account while we discuss. Can I ask what’s driving your decision today?

Every exchange costs her a paragraph and buys Kevin B. thirty seconds, and thirty seconds is the unit his dashboard counts. The subscription took one click to start. Ending it requires a negotiation with a man whose bonus depends on her fatigue. She holds. Twenty-six minutes after joining the queue, she has a confirmation number, and an email that says her access continues through the end of the billing period, along with a link to resubscribe, one click.

5.

Tomás Reyes, off duty from the hospital’s servers, tries to cancel the satellite radio in his wife’s car. The car came with a trial. The trial became $23.99 a month the way water becomes ice, quietly, at a threshold no one watched.

The website tells him to call. The phone tree routes him to a man who has been waiting for him his entire career.

“I can drop that to $9.99 a month for twelve months right now.”

“No thanks. Cancel.”

“What if I said $4.99? Same channels.”

Tomás pauses, out of arithmetic. “You’re telling me the real price was five dollars the whole time?”

“This is a special retention offer.”

The price was never a price. The price was an opening bid against the day he would call. He cancels anyway, on principle, and the agent, reading the last line of the script, reminds him he can come back whenever he likes.

6.

Denise Carter audits her mother’s credit card statement at the kitchen table, the same table where the printer died. Her mother is 78 and trusts machines.

The statement runs to four pages. Denise reads with a highlighter. $9.99, a photo storage service her mother has never opened. $12.99, a streaming channel of British mysteries, plausible. $7.99, a “PC optimizer.” $14.99, a horoscope app, billed weekly at $3.75 in a disguise of small numbers. $29.99, an antivirus that renewed at triple its teaser rate.

Six subscriptions. Her mother remembers subscribing to one.

Each cancellation is its own small war with its own terrain. One requires the phone. One requires logging into an account whose password died with an old email address. One offers only a pause. The horoscope app has no cancellation page at all; Denise cancels it by disputing the charge with the bank, the nuclear option, the only button that always works. The afternoon costs her three hours. The companies designed for exactly this: the daughter has a job and a family, the mother has trust, and $9.99 clears the threshold of nobody’s attention.

7.

One scene from the other side of the glass. A product manager at a subscription company, any of them, stands in front of a slide. The slide has one chart. The line labeled “involuntary retention” trends up and to the right.

“We added the pause option and the second confirmation screen in Q2,” she says. “Cancellation completion dropped 14 percent. That’s $2.3 million annualized.”

Nobody in the room calls the number what it is: revenue from people who tried to leave and gave up. The metric has a neutral name and the neutral name does the moral work. A vice president asks if they can test a third screen. They can. Everything can be tested. The test will win, because exhaustion always converts.

8.

The federal government looked at all this and wrote a rule. Click to cancel, the FTC called it: leaving must be as easy as joining, one click in, one click out. The agency finalized it in October 2024. In July 2025, a federal appeals court threw it out on procedural grounds before it took effect. The industry’s lawyers found the flaw in the agency’s paperwork, and so the asymmetry stands, the doorman holding the door open in one direction only.

Dave, Renata, Marcus, Donna, Tomás, and Denise have never met. They form a demographic no one markets to: people mid-cancellation, phone on speaker, certified mail receipt in a drawer, highlighter on a statement, holding for the next available agent. The companies count on the drawer and the hold music. Every screen between a customer and the exit exists because it was tested, and it stayed because it paid.

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Donny Pauling: The Producer Who Sold His Repentance

The studio sat above a sandwich shop in downtown Chico. A young woman climbing the stairs in, say, 2003 entered a room arranged to answer her doubts before she voiced them. Framed photographs showed the proprietor beside celebrities. A woman, his girlfriend, moved through the space doing ordinary tasks, and her presence said this place is safe, other women work here, nothing bad happens here. The proprietor called himself Donovan Philips. He was friendly. He did not pressure. He laid out the money, about $500 for a shoot, and he laid out the risks, and then he waited while the woman on the other side of the desk talked herself past her own hesitation. That was the method. He never needed force. He needed patience, a warm manner, and a college town that restocked its supply of nineteen-year-olds every September.

His legal name was Donny Pauling (b. about 1974), and over the following twenty years he became, in sequence, one of northern California’s more prolific amateur-porn producers, a nationally traveled anti-pornography speaker, a Catholic convert announced from a stage at Notre Dame, a convicted sex offender, a state prisoner, and a truck driver. Each identity was public. Each came with an audience. The constant across all of them was his skill at reading what a listener wanted and supplying it.

Pauling grew up in Redding, California, the son of a Pentecostal minister. The family moved often enough that he attended five high schools. In his own telling, the religion of his childhood consisted of prohibitions. No dances, no dates, no sleepovers. God appeared as a list of things forbidden. He watched members of his father’s congregations conduct themselves one way at church and another way at home, and the gap between performance and conduct became the organizing grievance of his young life. He found a pornographic magazine in the third grade. The material stayed with him, though by his account it did not govern him until adulthood.

As a high-school senior he moved in with an aunt in another city to take an advanced math class, and there he met Wendy, a Christian, whom he married. In 1997 he founded Pauling Technology Consulting. The couple brought a computer into their home, and Pauling later described nights of consumption while his wife slept or worked. His technical skill turned appetite into enterprise. At about twenty-four he bought a camera.

The business he built ran on the economics of licensing. He paid a woman roughly $500 for a shoot. The material could be licensed again and again and return several multiples of that figure. He sold to larger sites and supplied companies including Playboy. He estimated that he photographed more than 500 students at California State University, Chico, along with several faculty members, most of it solo nudity and softcore at the start. He advertised on Christian websites and forums, and he later said he regarded the users there as hypocrites, which made recruiting through their channels a private joke at their expense. He enjoyed telling members of his father’s church what he did for a living and then asking whether they consumed the product. The question collapsed the distance between the man behind the camera and the man behind the screen, and it let Pauling cast himself as the honest party in the transaction.

For about three years he ran the operation behind his wife’s back, presenting himself as a technology consultant while financing shoots from bonuses and savings. He had an affair with a performer. The end came by telephone. Pauling called Wendy from an adult-industry convention and told her what he had been doing. The marriage ended, she kept custody of their young son, and Pauling moved into his office. Secrecy had been an operating cost. With it gone, he grossed more than $50,000 in his first month as a full-time producer, and at the peak he claimed an income above half a million dollars a year, with individual days that brought in thousands.

The same period supplied the material he later used against the industry. Women began calling him after parents, employers, or boyfriends found the pictures. Some begged him to take material down that he no longer controlled, since licensed images had been copied across sites he did not own. One woman, by his account, threatened suicide. Another lost a job. Women were recognized in Chico bars and humiliated. Pauling could offer nothing. A decision made in an afternoon above a sandwich shop had become a permanent public record. In his speeches he returned again and again to one image, the light going out of a performer’s eyes. Women arrived alert and excited, he said, and went numb as the work escalated, and the cheerful performance the customer saw concealed crying and dissociation once the cameras stopped.

His exit ran through two events. The first was a Christian ministry called XXXchurch, founded by Craig Gross (b. 1975) and Mike Foster, which worked adult-industry conventions handing out Bibles stamped “Jesus Loves Porn Stars.” Pauling met them around 2002 and hated them. They kept treating him as a person rather than a target, year after year, and by his account this wore down a hostility toward Christianity that had been fixed since childhood. The second event was personal humiliation. Pauling had encouraged his fiancée to sleep with another man as part of what he called the game. She left him for that man. He described the injury to his ego as the first pain that let him recognize the pain he had caused others. In 2006, after engaging more seriously with XXXchurch at the Las Vegas convention, he turned down a Playboy offer reported at $4,000 a day for a new series and quit production. Two weeks later, sitting in his car, he surrendered his life to God. He compared the aftermath to detox. Conversion gave him a new account of his life. It restored nothing to the women in his archive.

What followed was a second career built from the wreckage of the first. Pauling enrolled in seminary classes, worked with XXXchurch, wrote online, spoke at “Porn and Pancakes” church breakfasts, and appeared in Christian media. In 2008 he stood on a stage at Yale beside Craig Gross for an ABC Nightline debate against porn performers including Ron Jeremy (b. 1953). His value on that stage was positional. He had run the business and could speak its language, and he now spoke the language of evangelical repentance, and no one else in the room held both vocabularies.

A note on the word pastor. Pauling was widely called a pastor, a preacher, or a pastor in training, and later interviews described him as an ex-pastor. The contemporary record establishes seminary enrollment and an itinerant speaking career. It does not document an ordination or a settled congregation. Anti-porn speaker is the accurate term.

His argument sharpened over the years. He stopped presenting pornography as a private addiction and began presenting production as commercial sexual exploitation. A producer, he argued, was a pimp by function. He recruited a woman, paid her for sexual performance, and resold access to her body. In a 2013 interview he ran the numbers, about $500 out for footage that returned more than $3,500. The consumer who paid nothing still fed the demand that paid the platforms. The argument placed him in company with feminist anti-pornography writers and trafficking activists as well as the evangelical circuit. He spoke at York University, at Notre Dame, at the 2014 Coalition to End Sexual Exploitation summit, and at churches and conferences across the United States, Canada, and Australia. He claimed his story had reached millions.

The recruitment skill traveled with him. At Chico State he had targeted young women new to a city and short of money and support, and he had used isolation and economic pressure where a cruder man might have used force. On the speaking circuit he read church audiences the same way. He knew what they wanted, which was sensational detail wrapped in moral warning, and he supplied it. The product changed. The salesmanship did not.

In March 2014, at a Notre Dame event, Pauling announced that he was entering the Catholic Church, and that Easter Vigil he was reported confirmed. The move gave his story a sacramental finish. The producer had confessed, converted, and been received into an ancient moral community. The arc was complete, and audiences on three continents had paid to hear it.

On December 1, 2014, he was arrested. A teenage relative who had lived under his care reported a sexual relationship of several years. Investigation produced allegations from other teenage girls in Shasta and Sutter counties, and by early 2015 prosecutors had filed roughly thirteen felony counts and a misdemeanor across two cases. The record from the plea and the reporting states that Pauling had ongoing oral and vaginal sex with one victim beginning around 2012, when she was fourteen, continuing into 2014. He committed lewd conduct with a second girl, sixteen. He massaged the genitals of a third, also sixteen. The first victim reported that Pauling told her that if she ever disclosed the relationship she should tell him first so he could kill himself, and that he was not like other child molesters because he loved her. There were allegations that he photographed her with other young girls.

The cases entangled a Sutter County sheriff’s captain, Lewis McElfresh Jr., the county jail commander and a friend of Pauling’s. Pauling claimed that McElfresh had invited him over and pressured him to have sex with McElfresh’s sixteen-year-old relative. McElfresh faced charges of his own and pleaded no contest to child endangerment, receiving five years of probation and sex-offender counseling, and no prison time. The friendship shows how far Pauling’s respectability reached. A man three years into a national ministry against sexual exploitation was socially embedded with the commander of a county jail, and the alleged conduct between the two households went on while both men held positions of public trust.

On October 15, 2015, Pauling entered no-contest pleas resolving the cases, four felony sex charges concerning two minors and a misdemeanor concerning a third, for six years in state prison, lifetime sex-offender registration, and parole. He represented himself at some appearances. At the November 12, 2015 sentencing, the judge called him a “lying and manipulative sexual predator” who had convinced himself he was in love with a sixteen-year-old, and added, “We don’t molest people we love.” Victims and their families said six years was too short. Under California rules he would serve at least half.

The crimes were committed during the ministry years. For most of a decade Pauling had stood before audiences explaining how adult men cultivate trust, normalize boundary violations, and convert apparent consent into exploitation, and through part of that decade he was doing those things to a fourteen-year-old in his own home. This does not falsify every observation he made from the stage. A compromised witness can testify accurately, and firsthand knowledge of recruitment was the one credential he possessed beyond dispute. Nor does it prove the conversion was theater from the start. People sincerely renounce one form of misconduct while concealing or growing another. What the case destroyed was the claim that his repentance certified his safety. The speaking platform had become one more environment where he received trust, access, and status while his conduct contradicted the man he performed.

The organizations that hosted him bear examination. Christian ministries run on testimony, and testimony converts disorder into narrative. The addict becomes the addiction speaker, the criminal the authority on crime, the pornographer the guide to purity. Such figures reach audiences that respectable clergy cannot, and the more dramatic the fall, the more valuable the rescue. XXXchurch and the wider circuit gave Pauling authority within months of his exit from the industry, on the strength of his past sins rather than any demonstrated record of present character, and few of the institutions that booked him had procedures for checking the difference. A corporation hiring a man for far less sensitive work might have run a background check and a probationary period. Churches accepted a story, because the story fit.

Pauling left prison and tried to build a life without a platform. By September 2019 he was writing online about depression, isolation, and suicidal thoughts, and about being told he would never have a platform again and needed to stay small. In August 2022 Luke Ford interviewed him under the title “From PK To Porner To Pastor To Convict To Truck Driver,” and he returned for a second program on the daily texture of life under sex-offender registration. He was driving a truck. The conversion formula that had organized his public life for a decade no longer had an ending it could reach.

In April 2023 he emailed the author of a long-running anti-porn blog, a man who had known him in ministry circles, asking that the names of certain young women be removed from an old post. The author complied, and after further contact raised concerns, cut him off. Faint traces of Pauling appear online as late as 2024. His ministry sites are gone. The domain donnypauling.com now hosts an adult-games site, with no sign that Pauling has any part in it. The address that once carried his escape story has been reabsorbed by the industry he described escaping.

Pauling belongs to a recurring American religious type, the transgressor whose market value comes from having crossed the boundary he now patrols. The type carries a structural risk that his case makes visible. Leaving pornography was an occupational change. The abilities that had made him rich in the industry, reading vulnerability, building intimacy on schedule, controlling a narrative, presenting himself as the one man who understood what others could not, moved with him from the studio to the sanctuary intact, and they remained in working order in his own house. Remorse and rehabilitation are different things. Religious fluency is not evidence of safety. A persuasive account of one’s sins can become a source of power over new victims, and institutions that believe in forgiveness still have to distinguish forgiveness from trust, trust from authority, and authority from access to the vulnerable.

The Moral Career of Donny Pauling: Reading a Life Through Erving Goffman

Erving Goffman (1922-1982) spent his career studying what people do in front of other people. His first book, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life (1956), argues that social life runs on performance. A man before an audience is a performer managing impressions, and he works in a front region, where the show happens, and retreats to a back region, where the props come down and the performer prepares. Goffman divides performers into the sincere, who believe their own act, and the cynical, who do not, and he notes that a man can travel between the two conditions, sometimes in a single afternoon. Stigma (1963) studies what happens when a performer carries information that could discredit him, and Asylums (1961) follows what Goffman calls the moral career, the sequence of changes a man’s self passes through as institutions take him up and put him down. A short early essay, “On Cooling the Mark Out” (1952), examines the con game and asks a question the rest of his work keeps answering: after the mark discovers the loss, who consoles him, and how?

Donny Pauling (b. about 1974) is a Goffman archive in one body. Over twenty-five years he ran three major performances from three front regions, a studio, a stage, and a courtroom-adjacent life of managed contrition, and he kept one back region through all of them, his home, which is where the state finally went looking. His case runs Goffman’s stigma sequence backward. The usual subject of Stigma is born with his mark or acquires it by accident and spends his life managing it. Pauling manufactured his first stigma on purpose, converted it into a paying credential, and then acquired a second stigma that no conversion can touch. The registry closed the account.

Begin in the studio above the sandwich shop in Chico. Goffman would inventory it as a front region built from standard materials. The setting: a downtown address, a business name, framed photographs of the proprietor beside celebrities, which Goffman calls sign-vehicles, objects that make claims the performer never has to speak aloud. The photographs said this man operates in a larger world than Chico, and a nineteen-year-old climbing those stairs could read the claim in the time it took to cross the room. The team: Goffman insists that most performances are staged by teams whose members cooperate to sustain a single definition of the situation, and Pauling’s girlfriend was a teammate whose role required no lines. A woman moving through the space at ease performed the proposition that women were at ease there. Her presence answered the visitor’s central question before the visitor asked it.

The performance’s genius was that it assigned the hard part to the audience. Pauling laid out the money and the risks and waited. Goffman’s con-game essay describes the structure. The con succeeds because the mark participates, because the mark’s own wants supply the persuasion, and the operator’s art consists of arranging the scene so the mark talks himself in. Pauling said as much in his later testimony. The women persuaded themselves. He supplied the room, the photographs, the teammate, the patience. The mark supplied the rest.

Goffman would then ask about audience segregation, the performer’s need to keep the spectators of one show from watching another. For three years Pauling ran two shows at once. Before his wife he performed a technology consultant. Before the models and the market he performed Donovan Philips. In Stigma’s vocabulary he was discreditable rather than discredited: the damaging information existed, and everything depended on controlling who held it. Goffman calls this passing, and he treats it as work, a daily labor of managing disclosure, monitoring who knows what, sorting the world into those before whom the secret must hold and those before whom it need not. The phone call from the convention ended the labor. Goffman notes that the discreditable sometimes disclose on their own initiative, since revelation, whatever it costs, ends the strain of information control. Pauling’s disclosure cost him the marriage and freed the business. He moved into the office, which is to say he moved into the front region and stopped maintaining a second one, and his first month without a back stage to service grossed more than $50,000.

Then the women started calling, and the con-game essay becomes the operative text. Goffman’s marks discover their losses after the operators are gone, and the con includes a final role, the cooler, the man left behind to console the mark, to define the loss as bearable, to keep the mark from the police by giving him a story he can live inside. The women who called Pauling after a parent or an employer found the pictures were marks discovering the full price of an afternoon. They wanted the loss reversed. Pauling could offer only definitions: the material was licensed, copies existed on sites he did not own, nothing could be recalled. He was a cooler with nothing to cool with, or a cooler who declined the role. One woman threatened suicide. Another lost a job. Goffman’s essay observes that a mark who cannot be cooled becomes a complainant, and the industry’s protection against complaint was structural. There was no one to complain to. The transaction had been legal, the consent documented, the images licensed. The con was not against the law. It was merely a con.

The conversion of 2006 opens the second performance, and here Stigma supplies the categories. Goffman describes two classes of people before whom a stigmatized man can stand without pretense: the own, who share his stigma, and the wise, normals whose work or history has made them privy and sympathetic. The XXXchurch men who worked the adult conventions in matching irreverence, handing out Bibles stamped “Jesus Loves Porn Stars,” were professional wise. Their method was Goffmanian to the letter. They refused the denunciatory performance Pauling expected, treated him as a person across repeated encounters, and thereby offered him something the industry could not, an audience before whom the information that discredited him elsewhere carried no charge. He hated them for years and then he didn’t.

What Pauling built with them reverses the usual trajectory of the stigmatized. Goffman notes that a stigmatized category generates professionals, spokesmen whose life story becomes stock in trade, and he adds a dry observation: such a man never escapes his stigma, since his career consists of representing it. The ex-producer on the church stage is this figure at full development. Pauling’s value on the Nightline stage at Yale in 2008, and at Notre Dame, and at the hundred churches between, came from the stigma. The testimony format required him to rehearse his discredit before every audience, to keep the spoiled identity polished and on display, because the spoiled identity was the credential. A clean man could not give the speech. Goffman’s question about sincere and cynical performers hangs over every appearance, and the frame’s discipline is to leave it hanging. Dramaturgy cannot see inside the performer, and it does not need to. What it can see is that the confession was a front-region routine, performed on schedule, for fees, before audiences whose response was known in advance, and that the routine generated what Goffman says successful performances generate: trust, deference, and access.

Access is the word to hold. The front region of the testimony years was the stage and the conference hall. The back region was a house in northern California where a girl of fourteen lived under his care. Goffman’s architecture describes the arrangement without strain. In the front region the performer embodies the standards his audience expects. In the back region the suppressed conduct appears, the performer steps out of character, and the audience is barred. The crimes ran from about 2012 into 2014, which means the back region operated through the Notre Dame announcement, through the Coalition summit, through the Catholic confirmation at the Easter Vigil. The two regions sat in the same life with full audience segregation, church crowds on one side, a child under instruction on the other, and the instruction the record preserves is a piece of back-region stagecraft: if she ever told anyone, she should tell him first, so he could kill himself. Even the threatened exit was scripted for effect on an audience of one.

December 1, 2014 is the date the regions collapsed. Goffman writes about performance disruptions, the moments when back-region information erupts into the front, and his examples are mostly small, a slip, a leak, an embarrassment the team scrambles to repair. An arrest is the disruption in its total form. The state walked into the back region and published it. Every prior front, the studio’s staged safety, the sanctuary’s staged repentance, was re-read in a morning as what Goffman says discovered performances become, evidence of cynicism reaching backward through the whole record. The judge at sentencing performed the re-reading for the public: a lying and manipulative sexual predator, and then the sentence that closed the testimony career as a genre, “We don’t molest people we love.”

Prison belongs to Asylums. Goffman’s total institution strips the entering self of its props, its wardrobe, its audiences, its name in the mouths of others, a process he calls mortification. For most inmates the losses are severe. For Pauling they were close to complete, since more than most men he had been made of performances, and the institution confiscated every stage at once. The moral career, in Goffman’s usage, is the self’s passage through such stations, and each station issues the man a new definition of who he is, which he can fight or absorb. The definition Pauling carried out of prison was printed on a registry.

The registry deserves a Goffman analysis of its own. Stigma devotes a chapter to information control, and its premise is that the discreditable man retains some command of his biography, deciding whom to tell, when, how much. Sex-offender registration is the state’s permanent seizure of that command. The registry is a stigma symbol administered by the government, searchable by any neighbor, employer, or stranger, renewed for life. Passing becomes a crime. Covering, Goffman’s softer strategy of keeping the known stigma from obtruding, becomes the only move left, and the moves available are small: a job with a minimal audience, a truthful account delivered before anyone can discover it, distance. Pauling drives a truck. Goffman might note the occupational logic without smiling. The cab of a truck is a front region with no audience, a place where a man discredited before every public can work a full day performing for no one.

The last documents are the terminal phase of the moral career, and they show Pauling being cooled out. By 2019 he wrote of depression, isolation, suicidal thought, and of being told he would never have a platform again and needed to stay small. Goffman’s essay predicted the scene in 1952. A man who loses a role must be offered a smaller one he can accept, and the people around him, meaning well or not, become his coolers, defining the loss as final and the reduced station as his portion. Stay small is cooling-out language, addressed to a mark whose lost stake was an identity. The 2022 interviews with Luke Ford, given from the far side of the loss, read in Goffman’s terms as something between a sad tale, the account Asylums says inmates build to make their fall narratable, and a last, chastened performance for the one audience still willing to book him, an interviewer whose format was the life he had already lost twice.

What the frame yields, finally, is a redistribution of attention, away from the puzzle of Pauling’s inner states, which dramaturgy brackets, and toward the audiences, which it illuminates. Goffman closes The Presentation of Self with the observation that performances succeed because audiences cooperate, extending tact, declining to probe, accepting the front as the man. The church crowds that gave Pauling standing ovations were teammates in his performance and did not know it. The ministries that booked him accepted a confession as a credential because their format needed the confession more than it needed the man checked. Goffman’s sociology contains no villains, only performers and audiences holding scenes together, and its application here ends on that cold note. Pauling gave the audiences the show they assembled to see. The back region was where he lived.

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Are There Any Serial Killers In 90035?

Claude working memo, July 23, 2026. Data: LAPD Crime Data from 2020 to Present (city open data portal snapshot), 1,004,989 incident records, January 1, 2020 through May 29, 2025. One caveat governs everything: LAPD switched records systems in March 2024, so the legacy dataset thins out after that date. The reliable window is January 2020 through early 2024, about four years. The study area is a bounding box approximating ZIP 90035, latitude 34.040 to 34.063, longitude -118.403 to -118.371, which covers Pico-Robertson and slivers of its neighbors. All incident counts below come from that box.

Preregistered signal criteria

Before filtering, the criteria for a serial signal were: a cluster of unsolved homicides sharing method or victim type; any strangulation-weapon incidents, since strangulation is the method most overrepresented in serial killing; repetition of method, victim type, or premises among unsolved assaults on women; or a homicide rate running above expectation for the area.

The homicides

Three deaths in the box in five and a half calendar years of data.

November 13, 2021. A 26-year-old Hispanic woman died in an apartment on the 8600 block of West Olympic. Charged as negligent manslaughter, weapon field coded liquor/drugs. Cleared by adult arrest.

May 31, 2022. A 52-year-old White man died inside a pharmacy on the 1800 block of South La Cienega. Weapon unknown. Cleared by adult arrest.

August 3, 2022. A 66-year-old White man died in a discount store on the same 1800 block of South La Cienega, killed by bodily force. Cleared by adult arrest.

The second and third cases are the audit’s teaching moment. Same block, nine weeks apart, two older White men, both in retail stores. The pattern instinct fires on exactly this shape. The clearance data defuses it: both cases closed with arrests, so both killers are known, and known killers cannot be one unknown killer. This is what most apparent patterns look like on contact with case status.

The base rate

Los Angeles averaged roughly 370 homicides per year from 2020 through 2023 across about 3.9 million people, near 9.5 per 100,000. At the city rate, a population of 26,000 produces about 2.5 homicides per year, or roughly ten over the reliable window. The box produced three, only two of them criminal homicides. The neighborhood runs at about a quarter to a third of the city average.

The signal criteria, checked

Strangulation, choking, or ligature appears as the weapon in 50 incidents citywide in this window. In the box: zero.

Unsolved homicides in the box: zero. All three cleared.

Unsolved aggravated assaults on female victims in the box: 15 across the window. The weapons scatter: pepper spray, a vehicle, a BB gun, handguns, bodily force, a knife. The premises scatter: street, sidewalk, apartment, gas station, parking lot. No repetition of method, victim type, or location. Two of the 15 occurred on the 1700 block of South La Cienega in 2020, one a knife assault in a dwelling and one pepper spray in a parking lot, which share an address range and nothing else.

Verdict under the preregistered criteria: no signal. The answer to the opening question is no, with the standard epistemic caveat that absence of signal in city incident data is not proof of absence, pending the coroner and corridor layers below.

Context numbers for the essay

Aggravated assaults in the box: 150 over the window, 116 male victims, 32 female. Unsolved rate 55 percent against 60 percent citywide (32,267 of 53,525). The most common weapons were bodily force (25), unknown (19), and pepper spray (16), the profile of street disputes rather than predation.

Rapes reported in the box: 27, of which 17 remain coded Invest Cont. Even in a watched neighborhood, this is the file where under-attention lives. Most occurred in homes, hotels, and motels, the acquaintance pattern, but the unsolved fraction deserves a paragraph.

Citywide criminal homicides in the window: 1,568, of which 484 remain coded Invest Cont, about 31 percent open. That number is the bridge to the essay’s third movement. The machinery found nothing in 90035 because there was nothing to find. Four hundred eighty-four open case files elsewhere in the city are where it points next.

Total reported crime in the box ran 1,532 (2020), 1,575 (2021), 1,755 (2022), 1,808 (2023), with serious violence flat to declining: 85, 91, 86, 68.

Data caveats to state in print

The box is a rectangle, not the ZIP boundary polygon. Status codes are a snapshot; Invest Cont means open as of the data pull, and some closed cases carry stale codes. The data covers LAPD only. Beverly Hills PD and Culver City PD territory begins blocks away, and the jurisdictional seam remains unexamined. Post-March 2024 data is incomplete because of the records system transition; the apparent 2024 crime drop in this dataset is an artifact.

The pre-2020 layer: Corning Street

A 2010 slice of the LAPD legacy data (200,510 incident records) shows two homicides in the box that year, both on South Corning Street, one block apart, four months apart. News archives and LAPD press releases then opened a history the 2020-2025 data could not see. The 1900 and 2000 blocks of South Corning form a two-block corridor with at least four homicide incidents across a decade.

November 20, 2004. A drive-by at 2035 S. Corning killed LaShawn Brunson, 21, of Palmdale, and wounded two others. Witnesses described a light minivan.

May 5, 2010. Jana Collins, 26 and 18 weeks pregnant, sat in her car with two men on the 1900 block when a gunman walked up and fired repeatedly into the car. She died at the hospital with her unborn child. LAPD said she was not the intended target and called it gang related. Suspect Javier Angulo Romero was arrested in Atlanta on October 5, 2010. The incident record shows Adult Arrest.

September 9, 2010. A Black man died on the 2000 block. His record is the thinnest in the file: no age, no weapon, no premises, status Invest Cont as of the dataset snapshot. General and LAPD-newsroom searches that named every other Corning victim return nothing for him. He is, so far, the unnamed one.

December 2, 2013. Gunmen opened fire on a car in the 1900 block. Taalib Pecantte, 7, a passenger, died at the hospital. The FBI and LAPD arrested four suspects in February 2014, and the DA filed murder charges against Tradel Faniel.

Since 2014, the corridor appears in no homicide record I can reach. The violence stopped, or moved, and the neighborhood’s memory of it faded. This reframes the essay. The safe zip code contains a forgotten two-block war that took a pregnant woman and a second-grader, and it holds at least one open case whose victim has no name in anything publicly searchable. The “old enough to be forgotten” hypothesis found its case.

Follow-ups requiring hands and records access: the LA County Medical Examiner’s case files for a September 9, 2010 death on the 2000 block of South Corning, which will carry the man’s name; a CPRA request to LAPD West LA homicide on the case’s current status, since Invest Cont is a snapshot from the dataset era; the LA Times Homicide Report archive, reachable through library database access or the Wayback Machine, which likely profiled him at the time; the status of the 2004 Brunson case; and neighbors on Corning who remember 2004 to 2013.

The corridor layer: the seam test

Data: FBI Supplementary Homicide Report, 1976 to 2014, 716,550 records nationwide, the Murder Accountability Project file with the Solved flag. This is the only dataset in which LAPD, Beverly Hills PD, Culver City PD, and the Sheriff appear side by side. Caveat that governs this layer: the Solved flag reflects clearance within the reporting window, so cases solved years later still read unsolved. That staleness turned out to be a finding, not just a caveat.

The three agencies around 90035, 1976 to 2014: LAPD 26,252 homicides, 68 percent solved, 504 by strangulation or asphyxiation with 234 unsolved. Culver City PD 106 homicides, 68 percent solved, 11 strangulations with 5 unsolved. Beverly Hills PD 56 homicides, 68 percent solved. The Sheriff’s county file: 6,308 homicides, 46 percent recorded solved. LAPD’s unsolved female strangulations concentrate in the 1980s (46) and 1990s (58), the statistical shadow of the Southside era.

The flag: Culver City’s unsolved female strangulations fall in 1980 (84, White), 1982 (29, White), 1992 (39, Black), 1995 (41, Black), and 2005 (25, Black), five cases in a city of about 39,000. Run through news archives, the 1992 case resolves into Brenda Bradley, 38, found in a Culver City alley on October 5, 1992, a victim of serial killer Michael Hughes (b. 1958), who dumped four women in Culver City’s commercial alleys in 1992 and 1993, was arrested by Culver City police in December 1993, convicted of four murders in 1998, convicted of three more by DNA in 2011, and sentenced to death in 2012. Hughes was one of at least three serial killers, with Chester Turner and Lonnie Franklin Jr., behind the killings once attributed to a single Southside Slayer, in an era when as many as 90 women died in inner-city Los Angeles.

Three lessons for the essay. First, the protocol works: the preregistered signal, unsolved female strangulations clustered in one small jurisdiction, pointed at a documented serial killer on the first pass. Second, the file lies by omission: Bradley’s murder has been solved since 1998, but the SHR still counts her unsolved because the arrest came after her reporting year, so national unsolved counts overstate in both directions and every flag needs news-archive verification. Third, the two later cases, 1995 and 2005, Black women strangled in the same small jurisdiction, remain unresolved in anything I can reach, and the detective who worked Hughes said publicly that other agencies should check unsolved cases against him. Those two cases are the corridor layer’s open item.

The seam finding proper: Myles and Harrington, killed in November 1993, read as solved in the SHR because Hughes was arrested weeks later, while Bradley, killed thirteen months earlier by the same man, reads as unsolved forever. Same killer, same alleys, opposite codes, an artifact of the reporting-year boundary. Jurisdictional and temporal seams do the same work: they cut one pattern into pieces no single view reassembles.

Open layers

The corridor check: FBI Supplementary Homicide Report data via the Murder Accountability Project, covering all agencies, to test the seam between LAPD, Beverly Hills, Culver City, and Sheriff territory. The excess-death layer: LA County Medical Examiner-Coroner records for the box, deaths by cause against expectation. The missing and unidentified layer: NamUs, county-searchable. The historical layer: LAPD 2010 to 2019 dataset and the LA Times Homicide Report archive for pre-2020 cases, including any open ones old enough to be forgotten.

Police, Power, and the Production of Racial Boundaries (2015)

Ana Muñiz wrote her ethnography about Cadillac-Corning, the small tract of apartment blocks between Robertson and La Cienega south of Cadillac Avenue, which includes the exact Corning Street corridor where we found Brunson, Collins, Pecantte, and the unnamed man. Her argument, laid out from that Force Option Simulator scene forward, runs through the Coetzee frame: the neighborhood functioned as the imagined barbarian zone for the Whiter, wealthier areas around it, and policing there worked to maintain a racial boundary rather than to protect the people inside it. Her chapter 3 covers the origins of gang injunctions, and this is the book’s historical claim to fame: the 1987 injunction against the Crips in Cadillac-Corning was the first use of a gang injunction in Los Angeles, the prototype for a tool the city eventually deployed against dozens of neighborhoods. This 90035 zip code is where the gang injunction was invented.
Her Campus

The update since 2015 runs on three tracks.

The author. Muñiz is now an associate professor of criminology, law and society at UC Irvine, working on gang profiling, gang injunctions and databases, immigration enforcement, and state violence. Her second book, Borderland Circuitry (California, 2022), follows the same instinct upstream into the data layer: it traces the information systems behind immigration enforcement since the late 1980s, using ethnography, interviews, and previously unseen documents to show how data-sharing among local police, federal agencies, and foreign partners creates digital borderlands. The through-line from book one to book two is the gang database: the CalGang designation that began as a Cadillac-Corning-era policing tool became an input to deportation machinery. Her CV also shows her involved in the injunction litigation itself, in the Rodriguez and Arellano cases against the city.

The policy afterlife, which is the striking part: the book’s argument substantially won. In 2018, a federal district court barred the city from enforcing its gang injunctions, with Judge Virginia Phillips holding the city likely violated the Constitution by imposing probation-like conditions on residents, mostly men of color, without any hearing or chance to deny gang membership. The preliminary injunction lifted restrictions from nearly 1,500 residents, restrictions that had limited conduct as ordinary as carrying a cell phone or standing with family members. A 2020 settlement then required the city to give any individual a day in court before subjecting them to such restrictions. The earlier Rodriguez case had already established the damages side: after a California appellate court found the curfew provisions unconstitutional, the city agreed to pay up to $30 million in benefits including job training and tattoo removal for people served with injunctions. The class covered about 6,000 Angelenos hit by 26 injunctions with unconstitutional provisions.

And the sour coda, very much in the spirit of her book: the remedy itself became a case study in institutional neglect. By 2023, city data showed fewer than a quarter of the 6,000 class members had been assisted and less than half of the $30 million spent, and in May 2024 a federal judge ordered the program extended, appointed a special master, and sent in a forensic auditor to determine where the money went. The city that spent decades enforcing the injunctions could not competently administer the restitution for them.

The book gives the Corning corridor its history: the violence we found in the data, 2004 through 2013, happened inside the shadow of the country’s oldest injunction zone, in blocks that had been under intensive legal surveillance since the Reagan administration. And it complicates the attention thesis I handed you earlier. I said the safe zip is safe because it’s watched. Muñiz’s counter is that Cadillac-Corning was the most watched ground in the zip and the watching was containment, aimed at protecting the boundary around it. The unnamed man of September 9, 2010 died inside the most policed blocks of 90035, and his case sits open while the pharmacy and discount-store killings of White victims a few blocks east cleared.

LF: I can’t think of anything holier than solving murders. If you are looking for an exciting and rewarding hobby, may I suggest solving murders? Michelle McNamara (1970-2016) built a network of amateurs around the Golden State Killer case, and though law enforcement made the arrest through genetic genealogy, her obsessive cataloging kept the case alive and pressured the institutions to act. The DNA Doe Project runs on volunteers, many of them retired teachers and nurses who taught themselves genealogy, and they have named dozens of unidentified dead. The Bear Brook podcast case turned on a librarian, Rebekah Heath, who connected a missing woman’s name to the bodies in the barrels. An amateur beat every professional on that case.

The unavenged dead cry out from the ground in Genesis 4. A murder unsolved leaves a tear in the moral order, and a community that organizes to repair it is doing something close to religious work. The Talmud treats a found corpse as a communal obligation. The elders of the nearest city must take responsibility. Nobody gets to say it isn’t their problem.

The activity also delivers what most modern life withholds: a task with stakes, a defined mystery, a role for the obsessive autodidact, and the possibility that your late-night spreadsheet work restores a name to a dead girl and a measure of peace to her mother. Compare that to fantasy football.

The failure mode is famous. Reddit named Sunil Tripathi as the Boston bomber and his family, already searching for their missing son, got death threats before his body came out of the Providence River. Amateurs have harassed innocent men for years on the strength of a hunch and a message board consensus. The line between citizen sleuth and mob runs through evidentiary discipline: amateurs excel at pattern-finding across public records and fail at the accusation stage, where they lack the professional’s institutional restraints and legal accountability.

The serial killer detection angle is where amateurs might add the most value. Police departments are jurisdictional and murders cross county lines. The Murder Accountability Project, run by retired journalist Thomas Hargrove (b. 1955), uses public FBI data and an algorithm to flag clusters of unsolved strangulations, and it spotted the Gary, Indiana cluster before police acknowledged a serial killer. That’s an amateur institution doing work no police department was structured to do.

McNamara stayed up nights in a rented office chasing a man who had stopped killing decades earlier, and the pursuit killed her before the arrest, through the pills she took to sleep and to keep going. The book doubles as a portrait of the sleuth’s soul. She knew the hobby had a taint, that “murder porn” hovered near it, and she kept doing it because a solved case redeems the whole enterprise retroactively.

The websleuth world has its own sociology. Websleuths.com and the true crime subreddits have status hierarchies, veteran posters who enforce norms against naming suspects, newcomers who crash in with theories, moderators who function like clergy. The good forums developed evidentiary discipline the hard way, after Tripathi. These communities recapitulate the history of professional policing in miniature, learning through their own scandals why rules of evidence exist.

The genetic genealogy revolution changed what an amateur can do. CeCe Moore (b. 1969) came out of the adoptee-search world, self-taught, and became the most productive cold case solver in the country. Barbara Rae-Venter (b. 1948), a retired patent attorney, identified the Golden State Killer from her kitchen table. Neither had a day of police training. The skills that crack these cases now, building family trees from centimorgan data, mining old newspapers and city directories, are library skills. The obsessives who used to do genealogy for their own families turned out to hold the master key to a generation of unsolved murders.

If you want the darker reading, Michael Finkel’s work and the Serial phenomenon spawned a criticism literature arguing the hobby exploits grief. The strongest counterargument comes from the families. The parents of unidentified victims tend to love the sleuths. The Doe cases especially, because nobody else is looking. A detective has forty open files. The websleuth has one, and she thinks about it in the shower.

The documentary Murder 101 series follows a high school sociology class in rural Tennessee that revives a decades-old cold case into a present-day hunt for a killer. In 2018 a teacher named Alex Campbell assigned his students a local cold case from thirty years prior, and they developed a serial killer profile that helped revive the investigation. The case is the Redhead Murders, a string of women found dead along Southern highways in the 1980s, and in 2019 DNA confirmed that Jerry Lee Johns, who died in prison in 2015, killed Tina Farmer, one of the victims the class had studied. In the second episode the students interview Linda Schacke, the surviving victim.

Teenagers in a classroom outperformed four decades of professionals on a multi-state case. The reason fits with the Hargrove’s Murder Accountability Project. The murders crossed state lines, so no single agency owned the pattern. Each sheriff had one body. The class had all of them on one whiteboard, plus time, plus no jurisdictional ego. The amateur advantage is almost always synoptic: seeing the whole where the professionals each hold a piece.

Campbell says it’s a show about education, about what young people can do when you trust them to do real work, when they see real problems and real people they can help. The director says the film works as a case study for how school can feel when students engage in deep tasks, at a moment when dropout rates and engagement are worse than ever. A murdered woman nobody claimed becomes the occasion for a sixteen-year-old to do the most serious work of his life. Both the dead and the living get something.

The reviews back it up. It holds 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, the Wall Street Journal called it as fun and smart as anything on right now, and one critic said it answers the complaint that true crime gives too little voice to the victims.

The victims were drifters, hitchhikers, women at truck stops, the population whose deaths draw the least institutional attention. The class ended up doing recovery work on two levels, solving murders and restoring names to women the country had filed under disposable.

The use of AI leads to arrests. In April a 38-year-old Colorado case broke: Rhonda Fisher was murdered in 1987, her body found down an embankment in rural Douglas County, and preserved scene evidence combined with AI-powered analysis identified her killer after 38 years. Cold cases accumulate thousands of pages of reports, interviews, lab results, and photographs, and as detectives change assignments and evidence moves between systems, reconstructing the full story becomes as hard as solving the case. Most cold cases are cold because of information management failure. The answer sits in box 14 of 60 in an evidence room, and no human has time to read it all. A machine does.

The pattern repeats. A Madison County case cracked in 2026 after investigators uploaded more than 2,000 pages of case files and queried them conversationally, getting up to speed on three decades of evidence in a fraction of the time. Placer County’s DA implemented a program called Closure to sift massive volumes of evidence in cases where traditional leads ran dry, and the Cold Case Foundation, a nonprofit focused on unsolved homicides, missing persons, unidentified remains, and serial sexual assaults, partnered with Veritone to compile scattered data sources into a searchable system. Their AI program director said the sheer volume of unresolved cases, insufficient agency resources, and the mass of associated data are what hamper solving them.

In Indianapolis, a volunteer group called Team Monocles, made up of marketers, actors, and a retired tech engineer with no law enforcement background, ran a pilot with IMPD using AI to catalogue over 3,000 case files and 7,000 pages of evidence on a cold homicide. The Tennessee sociology class with a whiteboard becomes seven volunteers with a language model. Same synoptic advantage, bigger lens.

The deep logic here favors the dead. Serial killers survive on fragmentation: bodies in different counties, files in different formats, detectives who retire. AI is an anti-fragmentation technology. It reads everything, forgets nothing, and holds forty years in working memory at once. The Redhead Murders pattern that took a classroom a school year might now take an afternoon. Hargrove’s cluster-detection algorithm was the crude first draft of what’s coming.

Two cautions. One official in the search results claimed his new AI will tell if a person is lying. It will not. No technology does that, and a DA who believes it will generate false accusations at machine speed. And the general risk holds: AI is a lead generator. It’s superb at surfacing the overlooked interview and matching patterns across jurisdictions. Every output still needs the old disciplines, DNA, corroboration, chain of custody. The Tripathi failure at scale is the nightmare scenario.

But the direction is set. The unread file is dying as a category. For the families of the 250,000 or so unsolved American murders, that’s close to the best news in a generation.

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Karl Taro Greenfeld: The Brother, the Correspondent, the Fire

At half past midnight on New Year’s Day 2025, Karl Taro Greenfeld (b. 1964) stood outside his house at the top of Paseo Miramar in Pacific Palisades and watched a hill glow orange. His neighbors Jerry and Emily drove home from a New Year’s Eve party. He pointed at the fire. The neighbor was not concerned. The blaze was small and the fire department would handle it. That is what a hill fire in Los Angeles usually means: a helicopter, a news chopper, a story at eleven. Six days later, on January 7, wind off the desert turned a rekindled fire in the same hills into the destruction of the neighborhood. Greenfeld’s house burned with almost everything in it. So did the nearby home of his mother, the writer Fumiko Kometani (b. 1930), which held her paintings, her books, her photographs, and much of the material record of her sixty years with his father, the writer Josh Greenfeld (1928-2018).

A man who had spent three decades writing about people whose secure lives dissolved without warning, in Tokyo, in Hong Kong, in Tribeca, in an imagined foreclosed America, now stood inside his own subject. Within days he published an account in The Wall Street Journal. He had believed the house was the last one he would ever live in.

A house of three writers and one silence

Greenfeld was born in Kobe, Japan, on November 26, 1964, to parents who met at the MacDowell Colony in New Hampshire around 1960. Kometani had come from Osaka to the United States as an abstract painter. Josh Greenfeld was a Brooklyn-raised journalist, novelist, and playwright who later earned an Academy Award nomination for co-writing Paul Mazursky’s (1930-2014) Harry and Tonto (1974). The marriage joined a Japanese Buddhist-raised artist and a Jewish American writer at a time when such marriages were rare enough to be a subject in themselves. Both would eventually write about it. Everyone in this family wrote about everything, which is the family’s distinction and its wound.

The second son, Noah Greenfeld (b. 1966), was profoundly autistic. He never developed functional speech. He could not live independently. His condition became the organizing fact of the household: the schedules, the specialists, the schools that expelled him, the institutions that failed him, the question of who would care for him when the parents could not. Josh Greenfeld converted the ordeal into a trilogy, A Child Called Noah (1972), A Place for Noah (1978), and A Client Called Noah (1987), among the earliest and most read American accounts of raising an autistic child. Kometani turned from painting to writing when Noah made studio work with art supplies impossible, and her fiction drew on the same family. Her novella Passover won the Akutagawa Prize, Japan’s most prestigious award for a rising literary writer. American critics, including at The New York Times, called its portrait of a Jewish family antisemitic; a prize judge answered that the Times had misread the novella’s sardonic, self-ridiculing tone.

Karl grew up inside these books as a minor character. His father’s trilogy recorded the family’s life while Karl lived it, which means his childhood exists in two versions, the one he remembers and the one in print. Noah’s needs commanded the household’s attention, and the older boy was expected to manage. He sometimes told people he had no brother. He also understood, from early on, that Noah would one day be his responsibility. Decades later he would write that concern for Noah was the constant background noise of his youth. The household taught him three lessons at once: suffering can become literature, literature imposes an order that life refuses, and the person written about loses control of his own meaning. He learned the third lesson as the person written about.

Tokyo

Greenfeld grew up in Los Angeles, graduated from Sarah Lawrence College in 1987, and returned to Japan as an assistant language teacher on the JET Programme in 1988 and 1989. He arrived at the peak of the bubble. The Imperial Palace grounds were said to be worth more than California. American executives flew to Tokyo to learn the secrets of Japanese management. Greenfeld, half Japanese by birth and wholly foreign by upbringing, ignored the ministries and the boardrooms and went to the places the official story did not cover: the parking lots where bosozoku motorcycle gangs revved unmuffled engines at 2 a.m., the hostess clubs, the porn sets, the yakuza offices, the bedrooms of hackers. He worked as managing editor of Tokyo Journal and as Tokyo correspondent for The Nation.

The result was Speed Tribes: Days and Nights with Japan’s Next Generation (1994), published just as the bubble’s collapse became undeniable. The book’s young people had inherited a bargain: study, conform, join a corporation, defer gratification, and prosperity will follow. By the early 1990s the prosperity looked less certain and the deferral looked like a con. His subjects answered with speed, fashion, sex, drugs, machines, and crime rather than politics. Each group built its own costumes, codes, and hierarchies.

Greenfeld later acknowledged that some figures in the book were composites; one young woman combined material from three subjects. He called the method New Journalism, built from reporting, observation, and reconstruction. The admission complicates the book’s documentary standing. Its characters sometimes function as concentrated social types rather than transcribed individuals. The tension between narrative force and factual specificity ran through his journalism from the start.

The expatriate machine

He stayed in Asia through the region’s transformation, rising through the magazine world: deputy editor of Time Asia by 2001, editor of Time Asia from 2002 to 2004, then editor-at-large at Sports Illustrated from 2004 to 2007, where he was among the founding editors of Sports Illustrated China. His 2002 book His 2002 book Standard Deviations: Growing Up and Coming Down in the New Asia turned the reporter’s eye on the reporters. in the New Asia turned the reporter’s eye on the reporters. The expatriate press corps of 1990s Asia ran on ambition, access, alcohol, sex, and the conviction that proximity to history conferred importance. A correspondent could become more glamorous abroad than he had ever been at home. Greenfeld put himself inside the indictment. The book records his own appetites and evasions, the way reporting can serve as a respectable form of flight from obligation. A journalist admitted to back rooms begins to confuse proximity with power. His identity comes to depend on possessing stories.

SARS

He was running Time Asia from offices in Quarry Bay when severe acute respiratory syndrome reached Hong Kong in the spring of 2003. His wife and daughters left the city. His staff stayed and watched one of the densest urban economies on earth empty out: the ferries, the dim sum houses, the trading floors, the streets. Masks on every face. The city that never stopped touching itself, handshakes, crowded lifts, shared tables, stopped.

China Syndrome: The True Story of the 21st Century’s First Great Epidemic (2006) reconstructed the outbreak from its first cases in Guangdong through its spread to Hong Kong, Hanoi, and Toronto. The book’s argument is institutional. A virus spreads by biology, but an epidemic’s scale depends on whether officials disclose, whether hospitals recognize patterns, whether doctors can speak, and whether a government treats bad news as a problem to solve or a reputation to manage. Chinese officials concealed the outbreak while it seeded the world. Containment, when it came, ran on old technology: masks, quarantine, isolation wards, contact tracing. No drug ended SARS. Candor and shoe leather did.

When COVID-19 arrived, Greenfeld wrote in The Atlantic that determination plus luck had been enough to break open the SARS story, and he doubted the same would hold for COVID-19. The political and informational environment had hardened. The full story of the new pandemic’s origins might never be established.

Boy Alone: A Brother’s Memoir

In 2009 Greenfeld published the book that will likely outlast the rest. Boy Alone returned to Noah, and to the family story his father had made public four decades earlier, and changed the narrator. Josh had written as a father fighting for treatment. Karl wrote as the neglected sibling who lived beside the crisis without any say in how it was told.

The memoir refuses every convention of the genre. Noah does not recover. Love does not dissolve resentment. The family is not ennobled. Karl records affection, embarrassment, fear, anger, guilt, and calculated withdrawal, including the denial of his brother’s existence to strangers, including the knowledge that stewardship of Noah waits for him at the end of his parents’ lives. He shows that a person can be innocent of all wrongdoing and still dominate and damage everyone around him. The title covers both brothers. Noah is alone because autism bars him from the reciprocal world of language and friendship. Karl is alone because he can have no ordinary sibling bond and cannot voice his resentment without sounding cruel.

The book is also an answer to his father. Josh had made Noah a public story and, with him, Karl’s childhood. Boy Alone takes the story back without pretending the new version is final. Read together, the family’s books form an argument across generations and languages: the father’s American advocacy narrative, the mother’s Japanese literary transformation, the brother’s account of resentment and inherited duty. Noah, who cannot write, remains the center around which the others construct meaning.

Fiction, Tribeca, and the fear of falling

Greenfeld turned to fiction in his forties, and the honors came fast: stories in The Best American Short Stories 2009 and 2013, The PEN/O. Henry Prize Stories 2012, a Pushcart Prize in 2021, the Alice Hoffman Prize, and the Story Foundation Prize for "Womanly Words." His collection NowTrends appeared in 2011. The stories kept journalism’s compression of social detail and dropped journalism’s obligation to explain. A character could be loving, dishonest, frightened, and self-sacrificing in one scene, and the story could leave him there.

His first novel, Triburbia (2012), follows a set of Tribeca fathers through school drop-offs, breakfasts, affairs, and rivalries. He knew the terrain; he had lived in the neighborhood with his wife, Silka, and their daughters. Tribeca in the book is a social machine that converts the residue of bohemian authenticity into luxury real estate. The loft that once certified an artist’s marginality now certifies a hedge and a mortgage. The fathers consider themselves progressive husbands and attentive parents, and their attentiveness changes nothing about their vanity, infidelity, and fear. Every school, apartment, and dinner reservation communicates rank. Greenfeld’s sharpest perception concerns the insecurity of the almost-rich: people surrounded by richer people, whose achievements would look enviable from any distance except the one they occupy. The more the loft appreciates, the more there is to lose. The book put him in the line of Cheever and Updike, with the suburb replaced by the gentrified city block.

In 2013 he collaborated with Julius Erving (b. 1950) on Dr. J: The Autobiography, a study in the gap between a public self built on grace and control and a private life the persona could not absorb. In 2015 came The Subprimes, a near-future satire in which Americans ruined by debt, automation, and climate disaster become a wandering underclass named for their credit rating. The financial category becomes the human identity: people whose loans were rated risky become risks. The novel extends Triburbia’s anxiety to its conclusion. In the earlier book the professionals fear the fall; here the fall has happened, and the wealthy buy walls and read the desperation outside them as proof the walls are needed. At the story’s center stands a woman who may be a prophet or a fraud, leading the dispossessed on faith no one can verify. When security becomes a private purchase rather than a public expectation, the excluded stop appearing as fellow citizens and start appearing as contamination.

His 2018 novel True follows a teenage soccer prodigy caring for an autistic younger sister while pursuing the elite game. The autobiographical echo needs no decoding. Talent imposes one obligation, family another, and the gifted child must practice a measured selfishness to survive.

Television

Fiction led to television, a natural home for a writer whose father had told him: write scenes, and the scenes will find the story. His credits include Ray Donovan, Tokyo Vice, Accused, SEE, and Monarch, along with Netflix‘s live-action Cowboy Bebop. Tokyo Vice, an American reporter navigating Japanese crime, police, and the moral hazards of access, is close to a dramatization of Greenfeld’s own twenties. Ray Donovan, a fixer who solves every family’s problems except his own, sits near the center of his lifelong subject: men who convert emotional conflict into professional competence. The writers’ room stripped him of the book author’s control, and it resembled the editor’s chair he had held for years, arranging other people’s scenes into a story.

Fire

In a 2018 Atlantic essay, Greenfeld described California’s cycle of fire, rebuilding, denial, and renewed exposure. Seven years later the cycle came for him. After January 7, 2025, he and Silka began the machinery of aftermath. He described it in The Atlantic: the grief and displacement that do not leave, and the consuming work that crowds them out, insurance companies, city agencies, attorneys, debris removal, engineers assessing the foundation, the question of rebuilding. He was publicly angry, disputing the self-congratulation of developers whose private crews saved their own blocks, cataloguing the failures of hydrants and preparation.

The family first intended to rebuild. The obstacles accumulated: underinsurance, permitting, construction costs, and the years of capital and labor that rebuilding on a burned hillside demands. By mid-2025 the calculation reportedly widened past construction. Greenfeld wrote that the country’s political direction after the 2024 election had entered the family’s arithmetic, and that his wife and daughters’ German passports opened Europe; the family began planning a move to Spain while leaving the Palisades question open. As of mid-2026, the public record establishes the plan more firmly than the outcome.

The pattern repeats a life. Movement made the young Greenfeld: Kobe to Los Angeles to New York to Tokyo to Hong Kong to Tribeca to the Palisades. Travel then meant access, ambition, reinvention. The proposed move now follows grief and estrangement. The young correspondent crossed oceans to become more interesting. The older writer weighs whether the country that housed his family’s identity can still be trusted to hold it.

The subject

Greenfeld’s genres scatter, which has cost him a settled reputation. Readers of China Syndrome may never open Triburbia. Admirers of Boy Alone may not know he wrote for Tokyo Vice. The dispersal hides a coherence. Every Greenfeld book examines a person constructing an identity from structures he does not control: a corporate bargain, a masthead, a neighborhood, a nation, a house, a family. The structures look permanent until an economic collapse, an epidemic, a diagnosis, a credit rating, or a wind-driven fire shows what they were. His prose method follows the conviction. He distrusts announced feeling and trusts the observable: the motorcycle, the loft, the mask, the mortgage, the late night at the office, the route a man drives to avoid going home. The restraint is inherited twice over, from journalism’s rules of evidence and from a father’s instruction to write scenes.

His three lasting books measure the range. Speed Tribes caught the tremor at the end of Japan’s high-growth era. China Syndrome wrote the institutional history of epidemic concealment before the pandemic that proved it. Boy Alone remains among the most candid accounts in American letters of a sibling’s life under profound disability, and the rarest kind of memoir, one that declines to forgive itself or ask forgiveness. The fire of 2025 gave his lifelong theme its cruelest confirmation and put him, once more, in the position he has always written best: the man taking inventory of what the collapse left standing.

Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Karl Taro Greenfeld and the Man Who Cannot Leave

In the fall of 1940, a twenty-five-year-old German Jew who called himself Albert Hermant worked out of a Marseille hotel room with the American journalist Varian Fry (1907-1967), forging documents, changing money on the black market, and guiding refugees on foot over the Pyrenees into Spain. Albert O. Hirschman (1915-2012) had fled Berlin at seventeen, fought in Spain against Franco, and served France until France collapsed. When the Gestapo closed in he crossed the mountains on the same route he had shown others. Thirty years later, as a Harvard economist, he compressed everything he knew about failing institutions into a small book, Exit, Voice, and Loyalty (1970). When a firm, an organization, or a state deteriorates, its members have two responses. They can leave, or they can complain. Exit is the market’s answer, quiet and efficient: take your business elsewhere. Voice is the political answer, loud and uncertain: stay and try to force repair. Loyalty is the force between them, the attachment that delays exit long enough to give voice a chance. The theorist of exit had walked his theory over a mountain range before he wrote a word of it.

Karl Taro Greenfeld’s life reads as a long experiment in Hirschman’s triangle, run once per decade, in a different institution each time. He has exited a family, a country, an industry, and a genre, and he now weighs exiting America itself for the country Hirschman escaped into. He has raised his voice in magazines, memoirs, and, after January 2025, in essays and public anger about a burned city. And beneath fifty years of departures sits a single obligation that no continent has diluted, a brother in California who cannot speak, whose care will pass to Karl at the end of their parents’ lives, and who converts every exit in this story into something partial.

The first exit

Begin with the household on the Pacific Palisades hillside in the 1970s. By Hirschman’s lights a family is the institution where exit costs most and voice avails least. A boy cannot take his membership elsewhere. The Greenfeld house was organized around Noah: the schedules, the specialists, the schools that gave up, the state agencies that promised and failed. Josh Greenfeld responded with voice on an industrial scale. His trilogy about Noah is complaint literature in the strict sense, a consumer’s public protest against providers he could not leave. There existed no competing market of institutions for a profoundly autistic child in 1972. A family that cannot exit a failing service and cannot make its private complaints heard has one channel left, and Josh used it: he made the complaint national, in hardcover, three times. The trilogy belongs on the same shelf as Hirschman’s disgruntled railroad passengers and public school parents, the members of captive markets who discover that the only lever left is noise.

Karl’s response ran the other way. The sibling of the disabled child holds the weakest voice in the household. His needs rank last by a triage everyone understands and no one defends aloud. Hirschman observes that where voice is unavailable and loyalty is heavy, exit, when it finally comes, must be drastic. Karl’s was. He put an ocean and a language between himself and the house. Tokyo in 1988 was many things for a half-Japanese twenty-three-year-old, and one of them was the farthest point on earth from a brother’s needs that still counted as going home. He sometimes told strangers he had no brother, which is exit’s purest private form, departure from the fact itself. The distance was never disloyalty in any simple sense. It was what loyalty this heavy required if the older son was to become anyone at all. But it set the pattern: for Greenfeld, exit and obligation would travel together, the second riding inside the first.

A country without voice

The Japan Greenfeld found was itself a Hirschman case study, though nobody was calling it that. The postwar bargain offered lifetime employment in exchange for total membership. The corporation supplied identity, marriage prospects, drinking companions, and a pension, and asked in return that the member never leave and never complain. Japanese corporate life had engineered both exit and voice nearly out of existence. Quitting marked a man for life. Dissent had no channel. Hirschman argues that institutions sealed this way do not produce contentment; they produce pathology, because discontent denied both outlets goes underground.

Speed Tribes is a book about where it went. The bosozoku on their unmuffled bikes, the hostesses, the hackers, the young yakuza, the office workers dissolving into nightlife had no way to voice objection to the salaryman bargain and no respectable way to exit it. So they exited sideways, into style. A motorcycle gang is a resignation letter written in noise. The tribes built parallel institutions with their own uniforms, ranks, and loyalty oaths, which confirms a Hirschman point often missed: people who exit one loyalty rarely land in freedom. They land in another loyalty. Greenfeld caught this at street level in 1994, before the economic data made it respectable to say the Japanese model was breaking. The young were the alert customers Hirschman warns about, the first to sense deterioration and the first to withdraw, and their withdrawal was the leading indicator the ministries refused to read.

His own expatriate cohort, the subject of Standard Deviations, ran on the same fuel from the other direction. The foreign correspondents of 1990s Asia were professional exiters, men and women who had left home institutions that offered them insufficient scope and reinvented themselves where nobody could check the story. Greenfeld’s honesty in that book was to price the exit correctly. Distance from home meant distance from accountability. The correspondent who can always leave for the next posting never has to stay and fix anything, including himself.

What a state does to voice

China Syndrome is Greenfeld’s most sustained institutional argument. SARS became an epidemic in the gap between what doctors in Guangdong knew and what they were permitted to say. The Chinese party-state had spent decades dismantling voice as a matter of design: no independent press, no protected whistleblowers, punishment for officials whose districts produced bad news. Hirschman’s framework predicts the consequence. An institution that suppresses voice loses its early warning system. Deterioration proceeds silently until it announces itself as catastrophe. The virus was the message the doctors could not send.

Exit operated in the story too. Chinese citizens could not exit their information environment, but the virus could and did, leaving through airports in the bodies of travelers, forcing the disclosure that voice had been forbidden to make. The military physician Jiang Yanyong (1931-2023), who exposed the concealment of cases in Beijing hospitals, supplied the exception that proved the design: his act of voice required the protection of foreign media and cost him years of house arrest. Meanwhile Hong Kong, with a free press, complaining doctors, and an accountable health bureaucracy, contained its outbreak. Greenfeld edited Time Asia from Quarry Bay through those months and watched the comparison run in real time. When he wrote during COVID-19 that the SARS story had been breakable by grit and luck while the new pandemic’s origins might stay sealed, he was measuring, in Hirschman’s terms, how much further voice had been driven out of the system in seventeen years.

Exiting a dying industry

Greenfeld’s departure from magazines tracks another Hirschman prediction, the one economists cite most. When an institution declines, its most quality-sensitive members exit first, and their exit removes exactly the people whose voice might have forced repair. American magazine journalism after 2007 shed its Greenfelds in a steady stream: the writers with options left for books, television, and technology money, and each departure lowered the odds that anyone remaining could arrest the slide. Greenfeld’s move from the Time-Warner masthead world into fiction and then into writers’ rooms was individually rational and collectively symptomatic. Television paid, and television wanted precisely what magazine training produced, scene construction and compression. His father had told him to write scenes; the industry that arose as magazines fell turned out to run on nothing else.

A neighborhood of exiters, a novel about the trapped

Triburbia looks different through this lens than through the sociology of taste. The Tribeca fathers are all beneficiaries of exit. They or their money left somewhere, the suburbs, the middle class, the flyover origins, and bought into an enclave. Hirschman’s public school parable explains the moral cost. When the affluent can exit into private options, they stop voicing for common ones, and the common institutions deteriorate for those left inside. The loft district is that parable with better restaurants. Its residents purchased separation and called it authenticity.

The Subprimes pushes the parable to its terminus. The novel’s America has sorted itself into two Hirschman categories. The wealthy hold exit in fee simple: walls, private security, private everything, and with each purchase less reason to voice for public repair. The subprimes hold neither option. They cannot exit, being already expelled, and no institution remains that must listen to them. Hirschman’s framework says people stripped of both responses do not stop responding; they seek a new object of loyalty. Greenfeld gave them one, a woman who may be a messiah, leading the dispossessed on faith no one can audit. A political economy that forecloses exit and voice manufactures believers. The novel understood this in 2015, which is early.

Fire, voice, exit

Then the theory came home. On January 7, 2025, the institution that failed was the one Greenfeld had trusted most, the compound institution of neighborhood, city, and state that is supposed to keep a hillside from killing a community. His first response was voice at full volume. The Wall Street Journal essay within days. The Atlantic essays on the grinding aftermath of insurance adjusters, city agencies, and debris removal. The public contempt for a billionaire developer whose private crews saved his own retail village while the surrounding blocks burned, and for the hydrant system that had never served the upper Palisades at all. This was classic Hirschman voice, the alert member documenting deterioration in the loudest available channel, and it joined a chorus of Palisades voices demanding that the institution repair itself.

Voice is an investment, and its expected return depends on whether the institution can plausibly respond. Through 2025 the Greenfelds ran the calculation every burned-out family ran: underinsurance against construction costs, permits against years, a rebuilt house against the next wind event on the same hillside. And, per his own reported account, a further term entered the equation, the direction of the country after the 2024 election. Here the framework turns precise. Hirschman argued that the availability of exit shapes everything. Members with exit options voice differently, invest differently, and leave sooner than members without them. Silka and the daughters hold German passports. The passports are what Hirschman would call a low exit cost sitting in a drawer. A family with European citizenship weighing California reconstruction is running a different equation than its neighbors, and in 1993 Hirschman himself, in a late essay on the collapse of East Germany, described how the sudden opening of exit and the surge of voice can feed each other until a country’s members redefine what they owe it. The reported plan to move to Spain, still a plan rather than a confirmed departure as of mid-2026, would complete a strange circuit: Greenfeld considering exit into the country through which Hirschman once smuggled the trapped, in flight from a superpower he no longer trusts to hold his family’s life.

The man who wrote The Subprimes knows what it means when those with exit options use them. Every departure of a family with passports and capital withdraws one more voice from the pool that might force American institutions to repair. He would be enacting the public school parable he satirized. The observation is not a charge against him; Hirschman never moralized exit, having owed it his life. The framework simply prices the choice. Exit is rational for the member and corrosive for the institution, and both things stay true at once.

The institution with no door

Which leaves Noah, and the reason this life cannot be told as a sequence of departures. Hirschman treated loyalty as the residual category, the attachment that slows exit and subsidizes voice, and his critics have long said he underspecified it. The Greenfeld case supplies the missing definition. Loyalty in its final form is membership without an exit option, and Karl has held such a membership since 1966. He did not choose it. He cannot resign it. Distance never modified it; Tokyo and Hong Kong and Tribeca were all, on this one ledger, the same place. When Josh died in 2018 the obligation advanced one seat. When Kometani dies it arrives.

Read Boy Alone through this and you see the voice, exercised inside the institution of the family, forty years late, by the member whose voice had ranked last. Karl could finally say what the household’s triage had made unsayable, the resentment, the shame, the counting of costs, and he could say it because exit was off the table. Hirschman’s deepest claim is that loyalty makes honest voice possible: the member who cannot leave, or will not, earns the standing to say the worst. A brother who might walk away forever could never have written that book; it would have read as a settling of accounts on the way out the door. Written by the brother who stays, it reads as the institution talking to itself at last. The memoir even performs voice’s proper function, correction from within, because it answered and revised the father’s trilogy, the family’s earlier official complaint.

So the pattern completes. Greenfeld exited the household, the country, the industry, and may yet exit the republic, and every one of those exits was underwritten by the knowledge that one membership traveled with him. The tribes of Tokyo taught him what exit without voice looks like. China taught him what an institution becomes when voice is deleted. The magazine business taught him how the capable leave a sinking thing. The fire taught him what his own voice was worth against a failing state, and the passports in the drawer are teaching him what Hirschman always said the exit option teaches: that the final question is never whether you can leave. Hirschman crossed the Pyrenees carrying nothing. Greenfeld would cross the Atlantic carrying Noah, not in body, his brother will remain in California care, but as the clause in every contract he has ever signed with a new life. The man who cannot leave one thing has spent a career studying everyone who can, and the study keeps returning the same result. Exit gets you out of the institution. It does not get the institution out of you.

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Bret Stephens

The boy rode to school through Mexico City traffic while his father talked. Charles Stephens (b. 1937) taught history at the University of the Americas and used the drive to rehearse his lectures. Munich. Yalta. The show trials. The gulag. The passenger was his son Bret (b. November 21, 1973), who later said he received his education in twentieth-century politics in that car, years before any school assigned it. The father spoke of the century as a war between civilization and totalitarianism. The son absorbed the frame and never put it down.

Almost everything in Stephens's career runs back to that inheritance. He became a Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist, editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post at twenty-eight, deputy editor of The Wall Street Journal editorial page, the house conservative of The New York Times, and editor of Sapir, a quarterly on American Jewish life. He also became a man without a party. The Republican Party he joined as a young writer treated American power as the guarantor of a liberal world order. The Republican Party of Donald Trump (b. 1946) treats that order as a racket run at America's expense. Stephens spent the decade after 2016 arguing, in the pages of a newspaper whose readers mostly despise his economics, that the tradition which formed him deserved to survive.

The family war

The family history reads like a syllabus for his politics. His paternal grandfather was born Louis Ehrlich in Kishinev in 1901. The family left the Russian Empire after the pogroms and settled in New York, where Louis eventually took the surname Stephens, by family account after the Irish writer James Stephens. He moved to Mexico City, founded a chemical company called General Products, and prospered. He started as a New Deal Democrat. After World War II he became a fierce anti-Communist.

His wife, Annette Margolis, was a New York-born painter who had studied at Hunter College and Columbia. In post-revolutionary Mexico she moved in the circle of Diego Rivera (1886-1957) and Frida Kahlo (1907-1954). The marriage ended, and Annette married the American composer Conlon Nancarrow (1912-1997), a veteran of the Abraham Lincoln Brigade in the Spanish Civil War and, in his stepgrandson's description, a devout Stalinist.

So Charles Stephens grew up inside the Cold War at his own dinner table: a father who hated Communism, a stepfather who served it. He chose his father's side and kept choosing it. He worked as a foreign-policy speechwriter for Senator George Smathers (1913-2007), the Florida Democrat, and briefly dated an office secretary named Mary Jo Kopechne (1940-1969). As the Democratic Party moved left, he moved right. In 1974, the year of Watergate, he ran for Congress as a Republican on continued military aid to South Vietnam. He lost, returned to Mexico, and helped run the family business.

Bret's mother, Xenia, was born in Milan in 1940 to a Jewish family with roots in Vilna. Her family reached the United States in 1950 after a decade of European upheaval. The household Bret grew up in was secular, Spanish-speaking, prosperous, and marked on both sides by flight. Jewish vulnerability was a family memory before it was a political position.

Charles Stephens found intellectual companionship in Commentary, the monthly Norman Podhoretz (1930-2025) had turned into the central organ of neoconservatism. In his liberal social world, Charles held minority opinions, and Podhoretz's essays told him those opinions belonged to a tradition. Decades later, going through his late father's effects, Bret found an issue of Commentary from the 1980s with a Podhoretz cover story titled "The Hate That Dare Not Speak Its Name." Stephens had used the phrase in a foreword of his own, believing it his. The line had planted itself in his memory in childhood and waited there. He apologized to Podhoretz in print and called it an honest mistake. It was also a measure of how far down the magazine went in him.

Chicago

At about thirteen, Stephens decided to finish his education in the United States. He attended Middlesex School in Concord, Massachusetts, graduating in 1991, and later returned as a trustee and as a parent of Middlesex students. He then entered the University of Chicago through the Fundamentals program, a great-books course of study created by Leon Kass (b. 1939), Amy Kass (1940-2015), Allan Bloom (1930-1992), and James Redfield, and took his degree in 1995.

Fundamentals organized education around permanent questions rather than a department. Stephens read Aristotle, Locke, Smith, Tocqueville, Arendt, Hayek, and Miłosz, and argued about them in seminar rooms where argument was the point. He has credited the Kasses above all. From Chicago he took a definition of intellectual humility that he repeated for the rest of his career: intelligent people of good faith can study the same question and reach opposite conclusions, and a serious community is built through that disagreement. In his sophomore year he read Sick Societies, the anthropologist Robert Edgerton's attack on cultural relativism, and on a whim wrote about it for Commentary. The magazine that had steadied his father now published the son. After Chicago came a master's in comparative politics at the London School of Economics, then a job at Commentary under the editors who had shaped his household's politics from three thousand miles away.

Jerusalem at twenty-eight

Stephens joined The Wall Street Journal in 1998 as an op-ed editor in New York, then moved to Brussels to write editorials on the European Union. The Journal editorial page of that era stood for free trade, low taxes, immigration, and American power, and it treated those commitments as a package. Stephens absorbed the package. Then came September 11, and in January 2002 he left to become editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post, the youngest in the paper's history.

Picture the newsroom he walked into. The Second Intifada was at its height. Buses and cafés were exploding in the city where the paper's reporters lived. The staff included veterans who had covered Israeli politics for decades, and their new boss was a twenty-eight-year-old American whose management experience consisted of editing opinion pages. Some of them regarded him the way career diplomats regard a donor ambassador. He ran the paper anyway: news, editorial, foreign editions, the works. He redesigned it, pushed its editorial line toward the conservative and internationalist wing of Israeli opinion, and treated its English-language readership as a global audience rather than a local one.

The claim, sometimes repeated, that he rescued the paper financially has no public documentation. What Jerusalem gave him was harder to audit and more durable. From the editor's chair, terrorism did not look like a symptom of poverty awaiting a development program. It looked like a strategy, chosen by movements whose doctrines rejected compromise and whose targets were civilians drinking coffee. Stephens generalized from this, and the generalization carried both insight and risk. He understood earlier than many that Hamas, Hezbollah, and al-Qaeda meant what they said. He also acquired a habit of sliding from the pathologies of movements to sweeping judgments about the cultures around them, a habit that would cost him.

Global View

He returned to the Journal in late 2004, became deputy editorial-page editor with responsibility for international opinion, joined the editorial board, and wrote the weekly "Global View" column. He was no freelance contrarian; he helped write the official voice of the most influential editorial page in American conservatism. He supported the 2003 invasion of Iraq and accepted its premises: that Saddam Hussein (1937-2006) was a gathering danger and that his removal could open the region to something better. He later conceded he had been too optimistic about America's power to democratize another society. He never accepted that the invasion had been wrong in principle. The revised position, worked out over years, held that the United States must act as the world's policeman while abandoning the ambition to be its priest: enforce order, punish aggression, and give up on redeeming foreign societies through occupation.

That argument became America in Retreat: The New Isolationism and the Coming Global Disorder (2014), aimed at Barack Obama (b. 1961). Stephens argued that American withdrawal is also a policy, with victims, and that vacuums get filled by Russia, Iran, and jihadists. Events in Crimea and Syria gave the book a good first decade. Its weakness ran the other way: Stephens audited the costs of restraint in detail while treating the political aftermath of intervention as a secondary problem, and Iraq stood as the permanent exhibit against him.

The Pulitzer board gave him the 2013 prize for commentary, citing the force and contrarian edge of his columns. The submitted work attacked Republicans as well as Democrats, defended Fareed Zakaria during a plagiarism controversy, and argued for protecting vulgar speech. He later chaired Pulitzer juries and judged the Livingston Awards. By his early forties he sat inside every institution of establishment journalism while writing, increasingly, that those institutions were failing.

The move

In April 2017, Opinion editor James Bennet (b. 1966) brought Stephens to The New York Times. The logic was simple: the paper's readership had just been blindsided by an election, and Bennet wanted a conservative who rejected Trump and accepted the institution. The execution detonated on arrival. Stephens's first column, "Climate of Complete Certainty" (April 28, 2017), argued that climate advocates hurt their cause by claiming more certainty than the models support. Climate scientists dismantled it line by line. Readers posted screenshots of their canceled subscriptions. Colleagues denounced the hire in public.

Stephens had walked into a structural problem no column could solve. The Times wanted ideological range; a large part of its staff and audience believed some positions sat outside legitimate debate, and Stephens's climate record sat there. He, for his part, wanted to unsettle liberal readers from inside an institution they trusted, and he sometimes seemed to prefer the unsettling to the strongest available case.

Five years later he went to Greenland, stood on the melting ice, talked to the scientists, and wrote that his doubts had dissolved. He accepted anthropogenic warming as real and serious while continuing to argue for nuclear power, innovation, and adaptation over restrictions on growth. Critics asked, fairly, why a man who prized evidence needed a glacier when the published record had been available for decades. The episode displayed both halves of his temperament. Suspicion of consensus delayed him. Absence of loyalty to his own prior positions let him move, in public, with his name on it, which remains rare in his trade.

The bedbug

On August 26, 2019, word spread that bedbugs had been found in the Times newsroom. David Karpf, a George Washington University professor, tweeted a joke to his modest following: "The bedbugs are a metaphor. The bedbugs are Bret Stephens." The tweet drew nine retweets and no likes. It was on its way to oblivion.

That evening Karpf opened his email and found a message from Stephens, with the university's provost copied. Stephens invited the professor to visit his home, meet his wife and children, and "call me a 'bedbug' to my face." Karpf posted the email. The internet did the rest. Stephens deleted his Twitter account within a day and then wrote a column on the history of totalitarian regimes describing their enemies as insects, which readers took as a comparison of his own situation to that history, and the mockery started over.

The episode deserves its place in the biography because it tested his stated creed. Stephens's best-known lecture, "The Dying Art of Disagreement" (2017), argues that democratic life requires thick skin, curiosity about opponents, and the discipline to argue without seeking to destroy. The lecture is good. The email copied a man's employer over a joke. Stephens argued that vermin metaphors carry a dark lineage, which is true, and beside the point; a Pulitzer-winning columnist at the world's most powerful newspaper held every advantage over an associate professor with a small Twitter account, and he reached for the man's boss. The gap between the creed and the conduct is the most honest datum we have about how hard the creed is to live, including for its author.

Four months later came "The Secrets of Jewish Genius" (December 27, 2019), an essay attributing disproportionate Ashkenazi achievement to a culture of literacy, argument, and dissent. The original version cited a 2005 paper proposing a genetic explanation, co-authored by Henry Harpending (1944-2016), an anthropologist with ties to racialist thought. The Times removed the citation and appended an editor's note. Stephens maintained his thesis was cultural. The defense was plausible and the citation was careless, on a subject where the history of race science leaves no room for carelessness. In 2021 he wrote a column defending reporter Donald McNeil, pushed out after using a racial slur while discussing the slur with students; the Times declined to run it, and it leaked. Each controversy repeated the pattern: a writer who prizes force and surprise, handling evidence and power less carefully than his own standards require.

Homeless

Stephens opposed Trump from 2016 forward, and the objection went deeper than policy. His conservatism existed to defend the liberal constitutional order: alliances, courts, truthful speech, the peaceful transfer of power. Trump treated each as an obstacle. When the Republican Party submitted, Stephens concluded the party had left him, a phrase he used as a title for public appearances in 2026. At the University of Iowa in October 2025 he described his position as membership in "the conservative wing of the liberal church."

He refused the easier exits. He never became a liberal; he kept his Zionism, his market economics, his hostility to identity politics. He also refused to soften on Trump when softening would have restored his standing on the right, though he grew more willing to distinguish Trump from Trump's voters, arguing that a governing class which failed at war, finance, and borders had manufactured its own populist revolt. When JD Vance (b. 1984) lectured Europeans on democracy at Munich in 2025, Stephens answered that a man who would not say Trump lost in 2020 had no standing to give the lecture. When the second Trump administration did things he had advocated for decades, he said so, which brings the story to Iran.

On February 26, 2026, with American strikes visibly imminent, Stephens published "The Case for Hitting Iran." He faulted Trump for refusing to explain the war to the country, called that refusal a serious moral and political failure, and then made the case Trump would not make: Iran's nuclear program, its alliance with Moscow and Beijing, its proxies, its attacks on shipping. Two days later the United States and Israel struck, and the war began. Two weeks after that, with Iranian missiles falling on Israel and the Gulf states, his column opened with the question David Petraeus (b. 1952) put to a reporter during the drive on Baghdad in 2003: "Tell me how this ends." Critics of the war filed Stephens among the pundits who had learned nothing since Iraq. His own framing was that he had learned exactly one thing: support the use of force, demand an accounting of its purpose, and stop promising that force will remake the society it strikes. Whether that distinction survives contact with a long war is the open question of his late career. He is writing a book about the future of the free world while the free world's leading power is led by a man he considers unfit, which is either the best or the worst possible condition for the project.

The Jewish turn

Israel has been a constant since Jerusalem, and after October 7, 2023, it moved to the center. Stephens read the massacre, and the celebration of it on Western campuses, as the failure of an entire educational and media class. His positions since then resist the usual sorting. He rejected the genocide charge against Israel in July 2025, arguing the term's application there worked to twin the Jewish state with Nazi Germany. The next month he wrote that a permanent Israeli reoccupation of Gaza would force thoughtful supporters of Israel into opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu (b. 1949), and he demanded an immediate, large increase in food and medical aid. He held both that Hamas bore responsibility for starting and prolonging the war and that this responsibility released Israel from nothing.

Since 2021 he has edited Sapir, a quarterly funded by the Maimonides Fund, and the job marks a change in his ambitions. The columnist addresses a national audience; the editor of Sapir helps set the agenda of American Jewish institutional life, issue by issue: power, continuity, education, antisemitism, chosenness. His argument to Jewish philanthropy has been to spend less on monitoring haters and more on building Jews: schools, texts, confidence, attachment. His essay "My Liberal Faith" gave the project its widest frame, describing liberalism as an inheritance of conscience, freedom, and restraint that Jews have both served and depended on.

Podhoretz died on December 16, 2025, at ninety-five. Stephens's tribute in Commentary, "The Exemplar," opened where this essay opened: with Charles Stephens, born into a family of ideological feuds, finding in Podhoretz the assurance that his convictions had a lineage. The son who wrote the tribute now edits a Jewish magazine of his own, commissions the essays, writes the editor's notes, and supplies to younger writers what Podhoretz supplied to his father. The circuit closed in one generation.

The ledger

Stephens married the journalist Pamela Paul (b. 1971) in the late 1990s; the marriage was brief, and both later wrote for the Times, she as Book Review editor and then columnist. He married Corinna da Fonseca-Wollheim, a classical-music critic, and they have three children and a family life divided between New York and Hamburg. Russia banned him for life in 2022, a distinction he can be presumed to value. In spring 2026 Cornell appointed him a Zubrow Distinguished Visiting Journalist, and he appeared in Klarman Hall on March 6 to discuss democracy and journalism with the investor Seth Klarman, before an audience of students, many of whom regard his politics as archaeology. His eight-year weekly dialogue with the liberal columnist Gail Collins (b. 1945) ended on May 5, 2025, when both turned to books. In the final installment Collins told him that "hanging out with you like this for eight years was such a pleasure." Detractors called the feature a performance of civility between two comfortable people. Its defenders could answer that a decade in which two Americans of opposed politics argued weekly without contempt required no defense, and that the country produced few other examples.

The ledger, then. On the credit side: a writer who saw Trump clearly in 2016 and paid the full price on the right without collecting the reward on the left; who changed his mind on climate in public; who has spent thirty years arguing that ideological movements mean their doctrines, a claim that October 7 and February 28 keep re-proving; and whose prose, at its best, strips euphemism off institutional failure faster than any columnist of his generation. On the debit side: Iraq, and the asymmetry it exposed. Stephens examines the risks of restraint under a microscope and the risks of action through a window. He knows that weakness invites aggression. He is slower to see that strength invites hubris, that allies farm American commitments, and that wars end politically or do not end. The bedbug email sits on the same side of the ledger, a small entry with large print: the apostle of disagreement, disagreed with cheaply, reached for institutional power.

His deepest belief, inherited in a car in Mexico City traffic, is that liberal civilization is a single order, that markets, free speech, alliances, Jewish sovereignty, and American power stand or fall together, and that the West's mortal danger is shame at its own history. His deepest blind spot follows from the belief: the assumption that a West confident enough to use its power will know how to use it well. His father rehearsed the lectures. The son is still delivering them, to a country that has changed the course, in a war whose ending no one can yet describe.

The Bedbug and the Ritual Order: Erving Goffman Reads the Bret Stephens Email

On Monday, August 26, 2019, someone at The New York Times sent the staff a memo about bedbugs in the newsroom. The memo leaked to Twitter within the hour, because everything leaks to Twitter within the hour, and the joke wrote itself several thousand times that afternoon. One of the jokers was David Karpf, an associate professor of media and public affairs at George Washington University, a man who studies political communication on the internet for a living. He tweeted: “The bedbugs are a metaphor. The bedbugs are Bret Stephens.” The tweet earned nine retweets and zero likes. By the standards of the platform it was a failure, a pebble dropped down a well. Karpf went about his evening.

That night an email arrived. It came from Stephens’s New York Times account, and it copied the provost of George Washington University. Stephens wrote that he was amazed at what supposedly decent people say about strangers online. He invited Karpf to visit his home, meet his wife and children, and “call me a ‘bedbug’ to my face.” He promised to be courteous no matter what Karpf had to say.

Within twenty-four hours the columnist had deleted his Twitter account, the hashtag #BretBug had trended nationally, and a joke nine people had shared became the most famous insult of the year. The episode is usually filed under internet pile-ons, a genre with a large and undistinguished literature. It deserves better company. Erving Goffman (1922-1982) built a sociology for exactly this collision, and reading the bedbug affair through his work explains what every hot take missed: why the email, and not the tweet, destroyed face; why Stephens’s diagnosis of Twitter was half right; and why a man who commanded every institutional advantage lost a contest whose rules he did not know he had entered.

Goffman published “On Face-Work: An Analysis of Ritual Elements in Social Interaction” in the journal Psychiatry in 1955, and reprinted it in Interaction Ritual (1967). Face, in his definition, is “the positive social value a person effectively claims for himself” during a particular contact. The claim is social. Others must honor it, and the honoring runs on a tacit compact: I will work to protect your face, you will work to protect mine, and both of us will steer the encounter away from moments that would discredit either claim. Goffman called the whole apparatus the ritual order. His larger point, developed across The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life (1959), “The Nature of Deference and Demeanor” (1956), and Relations in Public (1971), was that this order is self-enforcing and universal. No rank exempts a person from it. A king can violate the ritual order and the violation costs him face on the spot, in front of the court, with no appeal.

Start with the tweet, because Goffman would. The joke was what he called aggressive face-work: scoring a point at another’s expense before an audience, the everyday blood sport of wit. Goffman treated point-scoring as a normal, regulated activity with a crucial condition: the target is usually present, or the remark stays in a region where the target will never hear it. Every social world runs on this segregation. The office lunch where the boss is mocked, the seminar hallway where the famous scholar is deflated, the family car after the dinner party. Goffman’s term was backstage talk, and his rule was that regions are kept separate by walls, doors, and discretion.

Twitter demolishes the walls. Joshua Meyrowitz extended Goffman to electronic media in No Sense of Place (1985), arguing that broadcast technologies merge situations that physical architecture kept apart, and the social-media scholars who followed him, Alice Marwick and danah boyd among them, gave the merger its current name: context collapse. Karpf’s tweet was backstage talk delivered in a technically public region. Its intended audience was a few hundred followers who shared his politics and his mordancy. Its possible audience was everyone, including the target. Karpf, whose scholarly field is this exact phenomenon, understood the risk in the abstract better than almost anyone alive, and rated it low, reasonably, because nine retweets is a whisper. Stephens was, in Goffman’s vocabulary, an unratified hearer, a man with his ear to a door that no longer exists.

Now the email, the document on which the whole episode turns. Stephens clearly experienced the tweet as what Goffman called a challenge to face, and he initiated what Goffman called the corrective process. Relations in Public lays out the remedial interchange in sequence: a virtual offense occurs, the offended party signals the breach, the offender supplies remedy (an account, an apology), the offended party grants relief, the offender expresses appreciation, and the ritual equilibrium is restored. The process is delicate, and Goffman’s rule for it is proportion. The signaled breach must be calibrated to the offense. An overweight challenge does not restore the ritual order. It commits a new offense, which then requires its own remedy, with the roles reversed.

Measure the calibration. The offense: a pun, nine retweets, zero likes, from a stranger. The challenge: a personal email from a Pulitzer Prize winner at the most powerful newspaper on earth, sent to the joker’s employer, with the sanctioning officer of his university copied on the correspondence. Goffman spent his career cataloguing the small change of interaction, and the cc line is small in exactly the way he taught readers to notice. Two lines of header. It converts the genre of the document. Without the cc, the email is a challenge between persons, eccentric, aggressive, but ritual. With the cc, it is a complaint to an institution, and it imports the possibility of professional consequence into what pretends to be an affair of honor.

That doubleness is the analytical core. The body of the email speaks the grammar of the duel. Come to my home. Meet my family. Say it to my face. Goffman wrote about this grammar in “Where the Action Is,” his essay on character contests, the run-ins where each party stakes his claim to courage, composure, and integrity before witnesses, and where the stake is the self. The duel is the character contest in its pure historical form, and the duel has one absolute requirement: the parties meet as equals, stripped of external advantage, or the contest proves nothing. The cc line speaks a different grammar, the grammar of the personnel file. It summons a superior. It converts the challenger from a gentleman demanding satisfaction into a customer demanding a manager. No document can speak both grammars at once. A man cannot invite you to a test of nerve and notify your boss in the same breath, because the notification concedes what the invitation denies, that he is unwilling to meet you inside the ritual order and has gone outside it for leverage. Every reader of the email understood this instantly and pre-theoretically. Goffman supplies the theory: the email failed as a challenge because it broke the equality condition of the character contest, and it failed as a complaint because the offense was beneath institutional notice. It fell between two orders and discredited its author in both.

The strange thing, and the thing a Goffman reading recovers that the pile-on could not, is that Stephens’s underlying intuition was sound. His email reached for copresence. Say it to my face is folk Goffman. It expresses the correct observation that face-to-face interaction carries ritual constraints, mutual monitoring, embarrassment, the sheer difficulty of being cruel to a body in the room, and that mediated channels dissolve those constraints. Goffman’s entire body of work rests on the special properties of copresence; Meyrowitz’s rests on what happens when media subtract them. Stephens diagnosed the disease accurately. His remedy administered a stronger dose of it. He answered a context collapse with a larger context collapse, dragging Karpf’s employer into a joke, and he enforced the norms of copresence through a channel that carried, however he later denied it, the shadow of a threat. The doctor prescribed the pathogen.

Watch Karpf’s counter-moves, because they are a clinic. He did not reply to Stephens. He tweeted that he had received the email and asked his followers whether he should post it. The move looks like hesitation and functions as ratification: it assembles an audience and obtains its consent, converting a private receipt into a public exhibit with the audience implicated in the exhibiting. Then he posted the screenshot with Stephens’s contact information cropped out, and said in interviews that he wanted no one to lose a job over this. Goffman’s essay on deference and demeanor distinguishes the two currencies of ritual: deference, the regard shown to others, and demeanor, the composure through which a person shows he deserves regard. Karpf paid both. He displayed poise, withheld escalation, protected his antagonist’s privacy while destroying his position, and performed, before a national audience, the courtesy that Stephens’s email had promised and failed to deliver. The demeanor was the argument.

It rested on a material base, and Karpf said so plainly afterward. He had tenure. The provost could read the email and do nothing, and did nothing. An adjunct, a lecturer, a graduate student receives the same cc and feels the floor move. Goffman is sometimes accused of ignoring power, of describing the ritual order as if all players held equal chips. The bedbug episode shows the relation between the orders with unusual sharpness. Institutional power determines who can afford to play the ritual game with composure; the ritual game then redistributes face without regard to the chips. Stephens held the institutional advantage and it purchased nothing, because the contest occurred in the ritual order, where the only currency is conduct. Karpf’s tenure did not win him the exchange. It bought him the calm with which he won it.

By Tuesday the corrective process had reversed polarity. The offense on the table was no longer the tweet; it was the email, and the internet, acting as what Goffman would recognize as an enormous, undisciplined sanctioning audience, demanded remedy from Stephens. He supplied two, and both misfired in ways the literature predicts. Marvin Scott and Stanford Lyman, building on Goffman in their 1968 paper “Accounts,” distinguished excuses, which admit the act was wrong while denying full responsibility, from justifications, which accept responsibility while denying the act was wrong. Apology, Goffman’s own preferred remedy, splits the self in two, a blameworthy past self and a reformed present one that joins the audience in condemning it. Stephens, on MSNBC the next morning, chose justification, the one form that restores no face. He said that likening people to insects was wrong in all cases, that the world’s worst regimes had talked of men as vermin before killing them, and that his email had threatened nothing, an assertion the cc line quietly contradicted on every screen in America. He condemned the offense he had suffered instead of the offense he had committed. The remedial slot stood open, and he filled it with a second challenge.

His other move was avoidance, and here he followed Goffman to the letter. The avoidance process, the 1955 paper explains, is the face-saving option of last resort: when an encounter can only cost face, stay out of the encounter; when a region has become impossible, leave the region. Stephens deactivated his Twitter account within a day, pronouncing the platform “a sewer” on his way out. The judgment was defensible and the timing was legible. Everyone could see that the sewer had been survivable for eight years and became intolerable in the specific week it turned on him. Exit read as flight, and flight, in a character contest, is a verdict.

Then came the strangest artifact of the week. On August 30, Stephens published his Times column, pegged to the eightieth anniversary of the German invasion of Poland, on the rhetoric that prepares slaughter, including the language that renders human beings as insects. He never mentioned Karpf, the email, or the week he had just lived, and no reader failed to supply them. In Frame Analysis (1974) Goffman described keying, the transposition of an activity into another register, the fight keyed as play, the tragedy keyed as rehearsal. The column attempted the largest upward keying available in Western letters: a personal embarrassment re-keyed as the prologue to genocide. Audiences are expert frame-detectors, Goffman insisted, and this audience detected the key in one reading. A man mocked as a bedbug had responded, in the paper of record, by associating his mockers with the architects of the Holocaust. The laughter that followed was the sound of a frame collapsing under its cargo. And the column produced a final ritual injury the columnist seems not to have anticipated: embarrassment, Goffman showed in his 1956 paper on the subject, radiates. It attaches to everyone identified with the flustered performer. The Times had been handed no role in the affair until the column gave it one.

Settle the ledger, then, in Goffman’s currency. The tweet cost Stephens almost nothing; nine retweets is below the threshold at which face is engaged, and unchallenged, the joke dies in the well Karpf dropped it into. The email cost him nearly everything, because it was performed incompetently in an order that forgives incompetence in no one: an overweight challenge, a duel with a cc line, a demand for deference issued through a failure of demeanor. Each subsequent move, the justification, the exit, the keyed column, was a remedy that renewed the offense. Karpf ended the week with more face than he began it, having done little except display composure while his antagonist spent his own. The affair confirmed the oldest and hardest claim in Goffman, the one that sounds like moralism and is actually mechanics. The self a man defends in these contests is a ritual object, constructed in the encounter, sustained by conduct within it, and it can be lost only by its owner. Nobody called Bret Stephens a bedbug and made it stick. Nine people saw a pun. Millions watched a remedial interchange performed backward by its injured party, and the performance, as Goffman knew, is the man.

The Cartographer’s Complaint: Bret Stephens and Hallin’s Spheres

On April 28, 2017, The New York Times published the first column of its newest hire, and by nightfall readers were posting screenshots of their canceled subscriptions. The column, “Climate of Complete Certainty,” made a claim so hedged it bordered on the trivial: that warming is real, that models carry uncertainty, and that advocates who claim total certainty overreach. The reaction treated it as heresy. Scientists rebutted it line by line. Colleagues denounced it in public. A petition circulated. The gap between the modesty of the claim and the violence of the response is the puzzle, and the puzzle has a solution, worked out three decades earlier by a scholar studying an entirely different war.

Daniel Hallin published The Uncensored War: The Media and Vietnam in 1986, and buried in its account of how American journalism covered that conflict is the most useful map ever drawn of how the press decides what counts as an opinion. Hallin proposed that journalists sort all political statements into three concentric regions. At the core sits the sphere of consensus, the realm of motherhood and the flag, where journalists feel no duty to present another side and act as celebrants of shared values. Around it lies the sphere of legitimate controversy, the region of elections, budgets, and wars-in-dispute, where the rituals of objectivity and balance apply. Outside lies the sphere of deviance, the region of actors and views that journalists and the political mainstream “reject as unworthy of being heard.” A position in the outer sphere gets no rebuttal and no balance. It gets exclusion, and the exclusion is performed as a professional duty rather than a political act.

Hallin built the model to demolish a myth. The press did not, he showed, oppose the Vietnam War from conviction; it moved when the boundaries moved, and the boundaries moved when elites split. Coverage turned critical after establishment figures turned critical, a pattern W. Lance Bennett later formalized as the indexing hypothesis: the range of debate in the news tracks the range of debate among officials. The deepest implication of the model is the one Jay Rosen (b. 1956) drew out when he revived it for the internet age in 2009: the sorting is invisible. No editor announces that a view has been assigned to deviance. The assignment happens in a thousand small decisions about who gets quoted, which claims need balance, and which need only condemnation, and journalists experience these decisions as news judgment rather than as the most consequential political act they perform.

Read through Hallin, Bret Stephens’s career stops looking like a sequence of controversies and becomes one continuous activity. He is a boundary litigant. For thirty years he has fought over the placement of the line between legitimate controversy and deviance, sometimes as advocate, sometimes as defendant, sometimes as mapmaker, and the fights he has won and lost track the largest redistricting of American public speech since Hallin’s own subject.

Begin with the hire, because the hire was cartography before it was employment. James Bennet brought Stephens to the Times in April 2017 as an explicit response to November 2016. The election had falsified the paper’s map. Sixty-three million voters had endorsed a candidate whom the Times’s opinion pages had placed, with almost no dissent, in the sphere of deviance, and the paper concluded that its sphere of legitimate controversy had been drawn too small to contain the country. Stephens was hired as an annexation: a conservative, anti-Trump, pro-market, hawkish, who would extend the map rightward without extending it to Trump. The plan embodied a theory, that the spheres should be drawn to match the electorate. The staff revolt that greeted his first column embodied the rival theory, that some boundaries are drawn by evidence and should not move for any electorate.

The climate fight is the cleanest specimen of a sphere dispute in the modern record, because the two sides were not arguing about the answer. They were arguing about which sphere holds the question. Stephens’s column, read carefully, conceded the science and contested the certainty of downstream projections, a position whose natural home is legitimate controversy. His critics answered that the anchoring claims, warming, human causation, serious risk, sit in the sphere of consensus, placed there by evidence rather than convention, and that a Times column treating them as debatable performs the one act Hallin says the middle sphere performs: it legitimates. This is the sharpest edge of the model. Admission to the sphere of legitimate controversy is a prize independent of winning any argument inside it, because admission announces that reasonable people disagree. The tobacco industry understood this for forty years; its memos asked for doubt, never for victory. The scientists who fought Stephens’s column had read that history and were policing the border, and the indexing hypothesis explains why the border was contestable at all: American political elites were split on climate while scientific elites were not, and Hallin’s model has no rule for which elite a newspaper must index. The Times, hiring Stephens, indexed to the Senate. His critics demanded it index to the National Academy. The column was the ground on which two indexing regimes collided.

Stephens settled his own case in 2022, standing on the Greenland ice, writing that his doubts had dissolved. In Hallin’s terms he did not lose the argument; he emigrated, moving his residence from the contested border zone into the consensus sphere while keeping his policy preferences, nuclear power, adaptation, growth, inside legitimate controversy where they belong. The emigration was tacit acknowledgment of what his critics had claimed in 2017, that the empirical core had never been controversy at all.

His earlier career shows the machinery running the other way, and it shows him profiting from it. In 2002 and 2003, the years he edited The Jerusalem Post and returned to The Wall Street Journal, hawkish internationalism occupied the sphere of consensus in American media. Hallin’s Vietnam finding replayed almost without revision: with both parties’ leaderships supporting the Iraq invasion, opposition was indexed to the margins, and the mainstream press treated skeptics of the war roughly as it had treated skeptics of Vietnam in 1965, as unserious, as deviant, as unworthy of the balance rituals. Stephens flourished inside that map. He did not draw it, but he never protested it, and the columnists who spent 2003 explaining that war opponents stood outside respectable opinion were performing the same boundary enforcement he would later suffer. Then the map inverted under his feet. Trump attacked the Iraq war from inside a Republican debate stage in 2016 and paid no price, which announced that elite consensus had cracked on the right, and within a few years the neoconservative position had been pushed toward the margin of the party that invented it. Stephens’s positions barely moved across these twenty years. The line moved across him, twice, in opposite directions, which is the experience that separates him from colleagues who have only ever policed a border and never been deported over one.

Inside the Times, the boundary wars of 2020 and 2021 ran through his corridor. The paper published Senator Tom Cotton (b. 1977) arguing for military deployment against riots in June 2020; the newsroom rebelled; Bennet resigned within days. Bari Weiss (b. 1984), hired in the same annexation as Stephens, resigned the next year with a letter arguing that the paper’s sphere of legitimate controversy had contracted to the tastes of its angriest online readers, that “Twitter has become its ultimate editor.” Stephens defended the Cotton publication and, in 2021, wrote a column defending the reporter Donald McNeil against dismissal over quoted use of a slur; the paper declined to run the column, and it leaked. Set aside the merits of each episode and observe the form. Every one is a jurisdictional fight over who draws the map: editors, the newsroom, the subscriber base, the platform. Hallin wrote about an era when a small elite drew one national map in private. The Times of 2020 was an institution in which the drafting room had been stormed, and Stephens spent those years as the house litigant for the widest possible middle sphere, losing most of the cases.

He has also crossed the line in the other direction, and the sanctions he drew are worth reading as procedure. The 2016 column describing antisemitism as a disease of the Arab mind, and the 2019 essay on Jewish genius with its citation of a racialist-adjacent intelligence paper, were judged by his own paper’s readers, and in the second case by his own editors, to have entered the sphere of deviance, where race science lives by settled assignment. The response to the second case followed the pattern the sociology of journalism calls paradigm repair: the offending citation was removed, an editor’s note was appended, and the note functioned as a boundary marker, informing readers that the paper knows where the line runs and regrets the trespass. Thomas Gieryn named the general activity boundary-work in 1983, writing about scientists; Matt Carlson and a generation of journalism scholars have documented the press performing it on its own members. Stephens’s editor’s note belongs in that literature as a specimen: the deviant crossing acknowledged, the border restored, the columnist retained. Exclusion has degrees, and a note is exile’s cheapest form.

Then came October 7, 2023, and the redistricting that now organizes his work. On the campuses, in the NGO world, and across large territories of online discourse, the position Stephens has held since boyhood, that Jewish political sovereignty is legitimate and necessary, began moving toward the sphere of deviance: Zionist speakers shouted down as beyond debate rather than debated, Zionism bracketed with racism in the resolutions of student governments, the word deployed as a disqualification. The fight over the genocide charge, which Stephens joined in July 2025, is at bottom a classification war conducted in Hallin’s terms, since the side that wins the label decides which position becomes undiscussable: if the charge holds, defense of the war is deviant; if it fails as he argued, the charge’s casual use is. And here the model requires the amendment that Stephens’s career has been quietly demonstrating for a decade, the amendment that constitutes an actual contribution to the literature rather than an application of it.

Hallin assumed one map. He could. His subject was a media system with three broadcast networks and a handful of national newspapers, institutions that drew a single national geography of opinion, which is why exile from it was total, and why his Vietnam-era dissidents simply vanished from the screen. That condition is gone. The spheres have gone jurisdictional. A position now holds a different status in each of several partially sealed discourse systems: Stephens’s Zionism sits in the sphere of consensus at Commentary and Sapir, in the sphere of legitimate controversy at the Times, and in the sphere of deviance at a growing number of elite universities, simultaneously, with no authority able to harmonize the maps. His anti-Trumpism sits in legitimate controversy at the Times and in deviance across the MAGA media system, which runs its own outer sphere and has assigned him to it by name. Under one map, a career was a location. Under many maps, a career becomes arbitrage, and Stephens is the type case: a writer who holds citizenship in several jurisdictions and full standing in none, and whose weekly output can be read as a customs declaration, arguing cargo across borders that face different directions.

His institutional response fits the amended model precisely. When a writer loses a boundary fight inside someone else’s jurisdiction, the historically available moves were surrender or exile. Fragmentation created a third: found a jurisdiction. Sapir, which Stephens has edited since 2021, is a machine for drawing a map, an American Jewish discourse in which the questions he considers legitimate, power, chosenness, the costs of the diaspora reflex, receive the balance rituals of the middle sphere, and the positions he considers deviant, the apologetics for Hamas above all, receive exclusion. This is what founding a journal has always meant; Podhoretz’s Commentary did the same for an earlier map. What is new is only the multiplicity, the fact that the founded jurisdiction does not replace the lost one and does not need to.

Which returns the story to his creed. “The Dying Art of Disagreement,” the 2017 lecture that stands as Stephens’s manifesto, is best read as normative cartography: an argument that the sphere of legitimate controversy should be drawn as wide as the society can bear, and the sphere of deviance as narrow. It is a serious position with a distinguished ancestry, and it contains the concession its admirers skip. Stephens keeps a deviance sphere too. He would not platform Holocaust denial for balance, or debate the massacre of October 7 as a question with two sides; he has said as much, and he is right to. No one in this fight proposes abolishing the outer sphere. Every combatant, the climate scientists, the campus activists, the newsroom staffers, the columnist, accepts Hallin’s geography and fights over the surveying, and the fights are unwinnable in the way boundary disputes are always unwinnable, by argument alone, because the boundary is upstream of argument; it decides what argument is for. Stephens has spent a career on that terrain, mostly without the vocabulary for it. Hallin supplies the vocabulary. The man is a cartographer’s complaint in human form: drawn onto three maps at once, legitimate here, deviant there, consensual in the journal he edits, and still filing columns each week that assume, against the visible evidence of his own biography, that somewhere a single map of the sayable exists and can be argued into shape.

Exit, Voice, and Bret Stephens

Albert O. Hirschman (1915-2012) knew about exit before he theorized it. He left Berlin in 1933, weeks after the Reichstag fire, a Jewish teenager who read the map faster than the adults around him. He fought in Spain, and in 1940 he worked in Marseille with Varian Fry (1907-1967), forging documents and scouting foot routes over the Pyrenees, running what amounted to an exit operation for several thousand people whose voice had failed absolutely. Thirty years later, as an economist at Harvard, he compressed the experience into the most portable framework the social sciences produced in his generation. Exit, Voice, and Loyalty (1970) begins with a small question, what customers do when a firm’s quality slips, and ends as a general theory of decline: members of any organization, firm, party, church, or state, have two responses to deterioration, leaving and complaining, and the fate of the organization depends on the mix. Exit is the economist’s response, silent and efficient. Voice is the political response, articulate, costly, and carrying what Hirschman called “the messiness and heartbreak of voice.” Loyalty is the third term, the attachment that delays exit and thereby gives voice time to work.

Bret Stephens’s career is a controlled experiment in the framework, run across every institution he has touched, and the family history that produced him is a chapter of its prehistory.

Start there, because the deep structure starts there. The Stephens family archive is a ledger of exits taken when voice became impossible. Kishinev after the pogroms: no petition available to a Jewish family in the Russian Empire of 1903, so Louis Ehrlich’s people left for New York. Milan, 1950: Xenia’s family out of a Europe that had spent the previous decade demonstrating what it thought of Jewish voice. Hirschman would have recognized both departures professionally; they were the kind he facilitated in Marseille. And the political tradition Stephens inherited, Zionism, is the exit option built into permanent form. The founding Zionist argument, made explicit from Pinsker and Herzl forward, holds that Jewish voice within other peoples’ polities has a ceiling, that emancipation-era Jews were the most loyal members European states possessed and the loyalty purchased nothing, and that a people in that position requires what no diaspora can supply, a guaranteed exit and a sovereign voice. Stephens’s attachment to Israel, usually parsed as ideology, parses more cleanly as Hirschman: he descends from people who needed exits and got them barely, and he supports the one institution on earth whose purpose is that no Jew should ever again depend on the mercy of someone else’s voice.

Now run the experiment forward, to 2016, the year the framework caught up with him personally.

Through 2015 he held a position Hirschman would classify as ideal membership: a loyalist-critic inside the Republican coalition, wielding voice from the deputy editorship of The Wall Street Journal editorial page, an organ that functioned as the party’s quality-control department. When Trump entered the primaries, Stephens deployed voice at maximum volume, column after column, and discovered what the volume was worth. The primary electorate was not reading the quality-control reports. Voice failed completely, and it failed in the presence of an audience, which is the most instructive kind of failure. In November 2016 he announced he would vote for Hillary Clinton (b. 1947), and the announcement completed the sequence: voice exhausted, exit executed.

But watch what he exited, because the precision is the whole game. Hirschman’s customer leaves a firm because the product deteriorated; the exit is an act of fidelity to the product, performed against the firm that abandoned it. Stephens left the party while refusing to leave the tradition, and his stated warrant, condensed in the title of his 2026 public appearances, “The Republican Party Left Me,” is a product-quality claim in its pure form: the firm quit making conservatism, so the customer quit the firm. The line carries an irony he certainly hears. It reverses Ronald Reagan (1911-2004), whose founding conversion story, that he never left the Democratic Party, the party left him, supplied the modern GOP with its origin myth. The myth now runs backward, recited by the people departing the church it built.

Hirschman has a name for what the party did next: the lazy monopoly. Most firms fear the exit of their most quality-sensitive customers, since those customers are the early-warning system. A lazy monopoly welcomes their departure, because their voice was the only discipline it faced, and their exit leaves the remaining membership quieter and the deterioration unopposed. The post-2016 Republican Party is the concept’s textbook case. It did not fight to retain its Never Trump intellectuals; it celebrated their departure, primaried their remaining allies, and converted the word “conservative,” in its internal usage, into a synonym for loyalty to one man. Hirschman’s model predicts the consequence with some exactness: an organization that expels its complainers loses the capacity to perceive its own decline. The two-party structure then closes the loop. Hirschman assumed exiting customers defect to a competitor, disciplining the original firm through the market. Stephens had no competitor to defect to; the duopoly offers a conservative internationalist no second firm. So he did the thing the model treats as the exile’s remaining option. He relocated his voice outside the coalition entirely, to the op-ed page of The New York Times.

The relocation solved one problem stated in the framework and created another. Voice after exit is the weakest voice there is; Hirschman notes that organizations discount the departed critic as an apostate, and the post-2016 right performs the discount on Stephens daily, his criticism dismissed as the grievance of a man who left. What the Times post restored was cost, and cost is the currency of credibility. A conservative columnist writing for conservatives pays nothing for his conservatism; the same sentences published before an audience of hostile progressive subscribers are billed at full price, in cancellations, in colleagues’ denunciations, in the standing invitation to be made an example. Every column Stephens files at the Times is costly voice in the strict sense, expensive to utter and therefore informative, and the arrangement runs both directions: his anti-Trump columns cost him on the right, his Zionism and market economics cost him on the left, and a writer taxed from both sides is a writer whose statements cannot be explained as audience service. Hirschman’s framework, built for firms, here prices sincerity.

The subscriber side of that arrangement deserves its own paragraph, because the customers were running Hirschman too. The canceled-subscription screenshot, the signature gesture of the 2017 backlash to his hiring, is a hybrid the book anticipates in its discussion of boycotts: exit performed as voice, the departure staged before an audience so that the firm hears it. A silent cancellation is a market datum; a photographed one is a speech act. The Times absorbed thousands of them and kept the columnist, which was the institution’s answer in the same grammar, a signal that this quality complaint would not set the product line.

Inside the building, the channels kept illustrating the framework’s fine print. In 2021 Stephens wrote a column defending Donald McNeil (b. 1954), the reporter pushed out over quoted use of a slur; the paper declined to publish it. Blocked voice does not disappear, Hirschman teaches; it converts or reroutes. The column leaked within days, voice rerouted through the unofficial channel, and Stephens stayed, which is the datum worth pausing on. He did not resign over the spiking, or over the Cotton affair, or over any of the boundary fights he lost. Set his conduct beside the alternative course, resignation-with-public-letter, the genre that combines exit and voice in one flourish and spends the member’s entire remaining influence in a single transaction. Stephens has never used the genre against an employer. His pattern is the opposite investment: loyalty, in Hirschman’s technical sense, the attachment that holds the quality-conscious member inside through deterioration he has publicly named, preserving his voice for the long argument. The pattern extends past journalism. He serves as a trustee of Middlesex, the boarding school that formed him, while writing that elite education has curdled; he chaired Pulitzer juries and judges the Livingston Awards while arguing that his profession’s political culture is failing; he remains a contributing editor of Commentary six decades into its arguments. The portrait Hirschman drew of the member most valuable to a declining institution, the one whose options make exit easy and whose attachment makes it unthinkable, is a portrait of this specific career.

There is one clean case of the other kind, and its exception status is the point. In August 2019, after the bedbug affair, Stephens deleted his Twitter account within a day, pronouncing the platform a sewer on the way out. Hirschman’s exit is normally silent and his voice normally stays; the flounce combines them, exit announced as a verdict. Stephens exited Twitter because voice there had catastrophically failed him, and the departure was rational in the framework’s terms: voice presupposes that the organization can hear, and a platform is an organization with no ears. What the case demonstrates by contrast is how anomalous it is in his record. One exit-with-verdict in a career of loyalist persistence, and it was directed at the single institution in his life that runs on exit alone, where attention is the only vote and leaving is the only sentence anyone reads.

The Conversation, his eight-year weekly dialogue with Gail Collins that ended May 5, 2025, sits at the framework’s far pole. If the bedbug exit was voice’s failure, the Collins feature was voice domesticated, ritualized, and sold: two members of opposed coalitions performing disagreement on schedule, the messiness and heartbreak converted into a subscription product. Detractors called it civility theater, and inside Hirschman’s terms the objection has content, since voice that risks nothing purchases nothing. Its defense also has content: the feature modeled, weekly, before millions, the premise on which every use of voice depends, that the other side is worth addressing rather than exiting from, and a decade of the model may have been the feature’s actual product.

Scale the framework up one last level and Stephens’s foreign policy comes into focus as the same argument conducted among states. America in Retreat (2014) is a book-length brief against exit. Its thesis, that American withdrawal from the world order is a choice with victims and that the vacuum fills with predators, is Hirschman’s logic applied to the superpower: the United States built the postwar order, holds the largest stake in it, and is the member whose exit destroys the institution outright. Alliances, in this reading, are loyalty structures, devices that make defection expensive on purpose, and the Trump-era treatment of NATO as a protection racket is the lazy monopolist’s view of membership, all dues and no product. The apparent contradiction, a man who exited his party condemning his country’s exit from its order, resolves on the book’s own terms: exit is warranted when the firm abandons the product, and an America abandoning the order abandons a product of its own manufacture. He left the GOP for quitting conservatism; he opposes America quitting the world for the same reason, fidelity to the thing over the vehicle. Whether the resolution fully survives the Iran war he endorsed in February 2026 is a question his next book, on the future of the free world, will have to answer, since a war is voice’s final form and Hirschman’s framework goes silent at the water’s edge of force.

The ledger, then. Voice failed him once, inside his party, completely and in public. He took the exit, kept the loyalty one level up, and rebuilt the voice on hostile ground, where its cost is its credential. The institutions he stayed inside, the Times, Middlesex, the Pulitzer apparatus, Commentary, hold him as the member Hirschman prescribed for declining organizations, the complainer who will not leave. The institution he left without a backward glance was the one that could not hear complaint at all. And the deepest layer never changed: a man descended from exits, loyal to the state that exists so his people will never need another one, spending his working life on the proposition that the heartbreak of voice beats the neatness of leaving, in every case where anyone is listening.

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My Stanley Fish Reading List

Is There a Text in This Class? (1980). The interpretive communities book. His argument that meaning comes from communities of readers rather than from texts or authors connects to everything I write about coalitions and knowledge production.

There’s No Such Thing as Free Speech, and It’s a Good Thing, Too (1994). Fish at his most provocative on how speech regimes always serve some interests and exclude others.

Professional Correctness (1995). His case that literary criticism should stop pretending to do politics and accept its disciplinary limits. A book about what fields can and cannot do, which maps onto my Bourdieu work.

The Trouble with Principle (1999). Fish argues that neutral principles are a mirage and that all argument is interested argument.

Save the World on Your Own Time (2008). Short, punchy, aimed at professors who confuse teaching with activism. His clearest statement on institutional role morality.

How Milton Works (2001). The scholarly monument. Forty years of Milton work distilled.

Surprised by Sin (1967). The book that made his name at 29. His reading of Paradise Lost as a trap for the reader remains the model of a career-making intervention.

Winning Arguments (2016). Fish for a general audience on rhetoric in politics, law, and marriage. Lighter, but shows how he translates his academic positions into trade prose.

Doing What Comes Naturally (1989). Dense essays on rhetoric, law, and theory. The chapters on law and interpretation feed his later anti-foundationalism.

Versions of Academic Freedom (2014). He sorts the competing schools of academic freedom and picks the narrowest one.

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Why So Much Elite Enthusiasm For The Odyssey?

I haven’t seen the film. Nothing I’ve heard about it moves me to see it.

The reviews came in around 98 percent on Rotten Tomatoes and an 88 on Metacritic, with the film opening to $124 million, Nolan’s best debut since The Dark Knight Rises.

Why the elite ecstasy over this movei? First, Homer flatters the reviewer. A critic who writes about The Odyssey gets to display his classical education, weigh fidelity to the poem, and quote Emily Wilson or Fagles. The assignment confers status. A Marvel movie makes the critic a consumer guide. A Homer adaptation makes him a humanist. Reviewers have an interest in treating the film as an event because the event elevates them.

Second, Nolan occupies a rare position: the one director who makes original-feeling, adult-scaled films that also gross a billion dollars. The critical class has spent a decade mourning the death of theatrical cinema and mid-budget seriousness. Nolan is their counterevidence. Praising him is coalition work for the institution of moviegoing. When Deadline’s critic calls it “a return home to the robustly entertaining action movies that cinema was invented to tell,” that sentence defends an industry, not just a film. The film was also the first shot entirely in Imax, and critics saw it in Imax theaters, which stacks the sensory deck. You review the format along with the film.

Third, momentum. Oppenheimer grossed nearly a billion dollars and swept the Oscars, including Best Picture and Best Director. Awards pundits started calling this one the Best Picture front-runner, with predictions that Damon could win his first acting Oscar, before most critics had seen it. Once the trade press frames a film as the season’s front-runner, dissent carries a cost. A critic who pans the consensus masterpiece looks contrarian; a critic who joins the chorus looks perceptive. The incentives run one way.

Fourth, Universal managed the rollout. The studio let only professional press see it early, cutting out influencers, which flattered the critics with restored gatekeeper status and made their verdict feel authoritative rather than one voice among fan reactions.

Fifth, it gives elites the opportunity to scold regular Americans about their lack of appreciation for diversity. Lupita Nyong’o plays Helen of Troy, Elliot Page plays Sinon, the Greek soldier behind the Trojan horse ruse, and Travis Scott took a role as well. The backlash was large: the final trailer reportedly drew over 542,000 dislikes, and Musk declared Nolan had “lost his integrity” over the Helen casting.

The reviews praised the film; the think pieces disciplined its critics. TheWrap ran a piece arguing that anger about race and gender in the film says more about the angry viewer than the film, and asking why some people only care about historical inaccuracy when it invalidates their preconceptions. Slate deployed a military historian to argue the woke-agenda accusations collapse because the ancient Mediterranean was diverse anyway. Forbes filed the objections under culture war grievances placing politics above art. The casting functions as a boundary marker. Objecting sorts you into the out-group, and the columns writing up the objectors let the writers perform membership in the in-group. The scold is the payoff. A critic who spends 800 words on Musk’s tweet gets to demonstrate sophistication without doing criticism.

There’s also an asymmetry in the standard applied. The same publications treat armor anachronisms and Tom Holland saying “dad” as trivia for pedants, then treat objections to the casting as a moral failing rather than trivia. If nothing in the film is meant to be accurate, both complaints should get the same shrug. They don’t, because one complaint is useful.

Homer is myth, not history; the poem has been recast in every medium for centuries; stage productions of Greek drama have used colorblind casting for decades without controversy. Helen’s beauty in the poem is a force, not a phenotype. The defense of the casting becomes dishonest only when it pretends the casting carries no contemporary political meaning, that Universal made these choices in a vacuum and only the objectors are political. Everyone in the transaction knows the casting signals something. The critics know, the studio knows, the objectors know. The only forbidden move is saying so plainly.

The reception owes as much to what Nolan represents to the people writing about him as to what plays on screen. He lets an anxious cultural class believe that spectacle and seriousness can still share a theater, and they reward him for it.

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Are There Any Realistic Ways Of Unifying America?

John Mearsheimer (b. 1947) holds that humans are survival-driven social animals who live in groups, that groups need thick shared cultures to function, and that nationalism beats liberal universalism because the nation is the best survival vehicle on offer. David Pinsof holds that beliefs are alliance signals, that people adopt positions to advertise loyalty to their coalitions and to derogate rivals, and that persuasion runs downstream of alliance structure. Put them together and you get a diagnosis: America is disunited because its national identity has thinned while its internal coalitions have thickened, and every public question has become a badge in a two-coalition war. The prescription follows from the diagnosis.

First, lower the stakes of national politics. Pinsof implies that when Washington decides everything, every belief becomes a national loyalty test. If abortion, schooling, guns, and speech codes are settled state by state, a Texan and a Vermonter no longer need to treat each other as existential threats. Federalism reduces the signaling value of national positions. A leader who wants unity might push decisions down rather than win them at the top, even when his coalition holds the top.

Second, scramble the coalitions. Pinsof’s account says beliefs follow alliances, so the lever is alliance structure. The current sorting stacks race, religion, education, geography, and party into two megatribes, and stacked cleavages produce total war. Cross-cutting cleavages produce moderation because your ally on taxes is your opponent on schools and you cannot afford to hate him. Leaders can build cross-cutting alliances around material interests: an economic program that recruits Black church ladies and White factory workers into one coalition does more for unity than a thousand speeches about coming together. The speeches are coalition signaling in disguise; the payroll is real.

Third, thicken the national identity. Mearsheimer’s anthropology says a country held together only by proposition and procedure will lose to countries held together by story, ritual, and blood-adjacent loyalty. Leaders might invest in the machinery that manufactures Americans: a common civic calendar, national holidays celebrated rather than litigated, a canonical account of the country taught in schools that includes the crimes without making the crimes the whole story, English as the working language, and an immigration system calibrated to the country’s capacity to assimilate rather than to the labor market’s appetite. Mearsheimer might add that assimilation worked before because institutions demanded it. The demand can return.

Fourth, give the coalitions a common scoreboard. Nations unify around external competition and shared projects. A race with China over semiconductors, energy, and biotech gives both parties a reason to want the same numbers to go up. The risk runs the other direction too: leaders who inflate threats to harvest unity tend to buy wars with the proceeds. The project has to be real.

Fifth, stop feeding the signaling economy. Both frames imply that a president who spends his term on symbolic fights, on flags and statues and pronouns, is running a coalition-maintenance operation, whatever he says about healing. Material politics unifies more than symbolic politics because a bridge serves both tribes and a symbol can only serve one. Pick fights that end in concrete.

Pinsof says you cannot argue a country into unity, because argument is what coalitions do to each other. National conversations, fact-checking initiatives, and civility campaigns read as enemy maneuvers to whichever side did not launch them. Mearsheimer says that creedal patriotism alone cannot carry the load, which cuts against the favorite unity program of the American establishment. And both frames suggest the deepest constraint: leaders rose through the coalition war and owe their positions to it. Asking them to demobilize their own armies asks them to disarm first. The leaders most able to unify the country are the ones the current system is least likely to produce, which might be why the last several presidents each promised unity and each left the country more sorted than he found it.

What about realistic ways of maximizing what we have in common? How can we rejigger incentives to produce a more pro-social behavior and outlook? I don’t believe in much, but I believe in the power of incentives to increase good behavior and to decrease bad behavior.

Where does anti-social behavior currently pay, and how do you change the payout table?

Start with the attention economy, because that is where the worst incentives live. A politician, pundit, or professor earns more attention by attacking the outgroup than by any other act. Outrage travels farther than agreement on every platform, and attention converts to money and status. I’m not interested in throttling this.

Second, change what politicians need to win. Closed primaries reward the candidate who best signals hatred of the other tribe to the most committed ten percent of his own. Alaska’s system, a single open primary plus ranked-choice general, changed who won there: Lisa Murkowski (b. 1957) survived a censure from her own party because she could assemble votes across the line. Louisiana’s jungle primary has produced similar effects for decades. Multi-member districts with proportional allocation, which the Constitution permits and a statute currently forbids, might break the two-megatribe structure at the root, since a five-party system makes permanent total war arithmetically harder than a two-party system.

Third, pay for contact. The contact hypothesis holds up best under specific conditions: equal status, shared goals, cooperation, institutional support. Those conditions describe a job site, a military unit, a volunteer fire department, and a rec-league team, and they do not describe a comment section. Policy can subsidize the first list. National service scores again here, but smaller versions exist: AmeriCorps stipends large enough to compete with entry-level wages, employer tax credits for apprenticeships that pull the college-bound and the trade-bound into the same shops, zoning reform that lets the young cop and the young teacher live in the same neighborhood as the young analyst. Bowling leagues died partly because the economy stopped leaving room for them. Leave room.

Fourth, restore thick local institutions, because pro-social behavior gets learned in bodies, in rooms, among people who will see you again. The repeat-player condition does most of the work: a man behaves better toward people he will face next week. Churches, shuls, unions, Rotary, school boards. Government cannot manufacture these, but it can stop taxing and regulating them into the ground, and it can route services through them. Disaster relief through churches and civic groups, job training through unions and employer associations. When the state delivers everything through its own apparatus, it starves the middle layer where citizens practice cooperation on people unlike their cousins.

Fifth, make defection from your own coalition survivable. Pinsof’s frame says people hold tribal positions because the cost of breaking ranks exceeds the benefit of honesty. Lower the cost. Secret ballots did this for voting. Institutions can do the analogue: universities and firms that adopt real neutrality on contested public questions, in the style of the Kalven Report, give their members cover to think. A professor at a committed institution must signal; a professor at a neutral one may reason. The incentive design point: honesty is a supply curve, and it slopes. More people tell the truth when the price drops.

Sixth, use the tax code and the honors system. The state already shapes behavior through deductions and medals. It could weight both toward bridging rather than bonding. Charitable status might favor organizations whose membership crosses the party line over organizations that exist to fight the culture war under a 501(c)(3) flag. Presidential medals, national endowments, and public commissions could go to people whose work serves both tribes, and the selection would itself be a signal from the top about what the country pays status for.

Seventh, end immigration and incentives for American to not put America first.

Theodore Roosevelt (1858-1919) attacked “hyphenated Americanism” and made the hyphen a mark against a man in public life. German Americans dropped their language, renamed their clubs, and buried a culture inside a decade. The machine worked through elite gatekeeping: newspapers, party bosses, university admissions, officer commissions. It should be publicly unacceptable to put any identity ahead of your American identity (with the exception of your religion).

Make the top of every ladder model the ranking. When the general, the CEO, the university president, and the senator each speak as Americans first and their tribes second, ambitious people below them copy the style, because ambitious people copy up. This costs nothing and requires no law. It requires elites who want to do it, which is the actual scarcity. The current elite incentive runs the other way: a corporate officer gains status in his professional class by foregrounding subgroup identity, and the awards, panels, and profiles reward it. Flip what the prestige economy pays. The Presidential Medal of Freedom, honorary degrees, magazine covers, keynote slots. These are the currency. Spend them on people who publicly rank America first, and withhold them from people who publicly rank it lower, and within a decade the style changes, because the style always follows the money and the honors.

Build institutions where the ranking is the price of entry. The military does this now and is the last institution majorities of both tribes trust. The oath, the uniform, the flag on the shoulder: a Marine may be Mexican, Mormon, or Sikh, and the Corps does not care, and it will destroy him for placing any of it above the unit. Expand the model. A large national service program extends the oath culture to millions who will never enlist. Naturalization already requires renouncing prior allegiances; the ceremony could become a bigger public event, celebrated the way college football is celebrated, so the country regularly watches people choose it over their origins.

Pinsof notes that secure status permits understatement. The men most able to mock identity ranking are members in good standing of the subgroups. When a Black comedian ridicules a White progressive for racial ventriloquism, or a Jewish writer needles a colleague for treating Israel as his home team in American debates, the shame lands without triggering the persecution alarm, because the shot came from inside. No government program produces this, but media gatekeepers decide whom to platform, and they could platform the counter-signalers instead of the identity entrepreneurs.

Mearsheimer would say some identity rankings are load limits you cannot shame away. Religious believers place God above the state, and a country that demands otherwise turns faith into an enemy and loses the believers, who are its most pro-social citizens by most measures. The workable demand is narrower: rank America above every earthly alternative, above the old country, the race, the party, and the diaspora, while leaving the vertical relationship alone.

Pinsof would say a shame campaign run by one coalition becomes a loyalty test administered by that coalition, and “America first in your identity stack” becomes a club for beating whichever minorities the administering tribe dislikes.

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