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The Alt-Right: What Everyone Needs to Know by George Hawley
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Why Not Both?
I was recently discussing the correlation between race and life outcomes. I pointed out what I think is the most salient truth in modern politics:
When groups of millions of people are systematically doing worse, or better, there must be an explanation. If the explanation is not that the different groups have different traits, then the explanation must be some system of oppression that wrongfully suppresses the potential of certain groups. It does no good to do the fashionable conservative thing and dodge around the question of group differences, when that question determines your innocence or guilt in the greatest moral question of our time.
Someone asked: Why do we have to choose one explanation or the other? Surely some part of the difference could be due to different traits, while another portion of the difference could be due to oppression!
Well, you do have to choose one explanation or another. Let us suppose that a man goes to doctors because he has a sore on his back. Different hypotheses compete — one doctor believes they are from an autoimmune reaction, the other believes they are from a bacterial infection.
The sore is sampled, and bacteria of a type that produces such sores are found.
We now have an explanation for the sore. While it is not strictly impossible that both doctors are correct, we need nothing more than the bacterial infection to explain the sore. Now, if an autoimmune reaction was also behind the existence of the sore, it would simply be by coincidence. We are not forced to raise our estimated probability of said reaction due to the presence of the symptom, because we already have an explanation for the symptom.
Every competent doctor understands this. Now let us suppose that the career of the doctor who claims the sore was an autoimmune reaction depends upon him being correct.
That doctor will NOT say: yes, indeed we found bacteria at the site of the sore, but only part of the sore is caused by bacteria. We happened to sample that part. If we sample another part, we’ll find no bacteria, because that other part of the sore is due to the autoimmune reaction. We’re both right!
While this may seem convincing to some laypeople, it is absolutely idiotic and unbelievable to people familiar with the subject matter.
Our imperiled doctor will, instead, cast doubt upon the findings. He has several avenues of attack: perhaps the people who cultured the bacteria accidentally introduced it. Such things happen. Perhaps the people who drew the sample got it mixed up with another sample. Such things happen. Perhaps the method of culturing the bacteria is itself flawed, with an error rate too high to make a useful determination. Perhaps those who are casting doubt on his diagnosis are junior to him, and they are speaking from ignorance. Perhaps those who are casting doubt on his diagnosis are senior to him, and are speaking from arrogance.
These are all much better tactics than accepting the test results. There are uncertainties everywhere – the strategy of maximizing their apparent relevance, while mixing in doubt about everyone involved, is a very good strategy if one has the social capital to pull it off.
A layperson sitting at the sidelines might say – what is all this fuss over? Maybe both doctors are right!
Sadly, it’s almost impossible for both doctors to be right. Both doctors know this, even if the layperson doesn’t.
We are in an analogous situation when it comes to the study of variation in human traits.
If it is true that there is a large variation in human traits, particularly intelligence, that is sufficient to explain vast differences in economic and other sociological outcomes.
If we already have an explanation for vast differences in outcome, there is no need to posit a system of oppression that is forcing millions of people into suboptimal outcomes based on their race and class.
It’s not strictly impossible that there are both trait differences, and a system of oppression that forces millions of people into suboptimal outcomes based on race and class. However, pretty much the entire reason to believe that such a system exists, is the differential outcomes themselves. If we have an convincing alternate explanation for those differences, the case basically evaporates.
Theoretically, there could be lots of stuff besides differential outcome to point to in order to support the systematic oppression idea. However, there just isn’t much. The stereotype threat idea failed to replicate. The majority-minority dynamic idea runs headfirst into the incredible success of Asians and Jews. On the other hand, the hereditarians have concrete finding after concrete finding to point to — often coming from scientists who were trying desperately to avoid coming to said conclusions.
It’s not impossible to imagine situations where ’both-sides-ism’ is a logical stance. However, in the case of explaining group outcome differences, as in the case of explaining the patient’s back sore, ‘both-sides-ism’ simply reveals ignorance about the subject matter. One explanation must prevail, or the other.
Posted in Alt Lite
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NYT: Why Won’t White People Admit Defeat And Go Away Quietly?
00:00 Healthcare worker, 46, tied to a THOUSAND unexplained deaths of elderly patients in Texas
02:00 TRUMP PLANS TO INVOKE INSURRECTION ACT TO BOOT ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS
05:00 Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria
11:00 Brexit, Teresa May
15:00 Brazilian minister is mocked for claiming Frozen character Elsa ‘is a lesbian who is turning children gay’
18:00 Beto O’Rourke mocked for posting Facebook Live haircut video
21:00 LAT: Yesterday once more: The feel-good sadness of a Carpenters fan convention
57:00 NYT: Why Won’t White People Admit Defeat And Go Away Quietly?
1:10:00 Neocons & Saudis Demand War With Iran, Trump Says No
1:11:00 The Only Unforgivable Crime In Clown World Is Noticing Things [American Greatness essay]
1:20:00 China Roundup [Incorporates Trump Goes Directly After Huawei, Brett Stephens Cucks Out On Tariffs, Walmart Weathers The Storm]
1:32:00 Racist ‘promposal’ sign will lead to ‘severe consequences’ for Southern California students
1:37:00 Hawley Calls on GOP to Revitalize ‘Great American Middle’ in Maiden Floor Speech
1:40:00 SAT Awards Test-Takers Points For Being Not Smart
1:42:00 UK Military Mobilizes Against Household Utensils
2:05:00 Nipsey Hussle Wasn’t Rich?
2:20:00 Theater Thursday: Croupier (1998)
3:30:00 Interview with a man who had a relationship with an ex-porn star
https://isteve.blogspot.com/2006/05/why-multicultural-societies-are-less.html
https://dailycaller.com/2019/05/16/donald-trump-insurrection-act-illegal-immigration/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7037177/Healthcare-worker-suspected-involved-thousand-deaths-charged-12-murders.html
https://nypost.com/2019/05/16/walmart-announces-record-sales-growth-but-warns-of-higher-prices-due-to-tariffs/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7035493/Brazilian-minister-mocked-claiming-Frozen-character-Elsa-lesbian.html
https://nypost.com/2019/05/14/de-blasio-once-again-disgraced-nyc-with-trump-tower-stunt/
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/transgender-woman-vagina-made-out-16061951
https://nypost.com/2019/05/15/feds-id-verification-letters-frighten-eateries-hotels-that-hire-immigrants/
https://nypost.com/2019/05/16/chick-fil-a-says-it-has-much-higher-calling-amid-charity-backlash/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7037271/America-launch-precision-strikes-against-Iran-says-Saudi-state-newspaper.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/knife-crime-uk-stabbings-gavin-williamson-military-police-cressida-dick-a8809581.html
https://www.latimes.com/entertainment/music/la-ca-ms-carpenters-karen-50th-anniversary-convention-downey-20190516-story.html
https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-racist-promposal-social-media-palos-verdes-20190516-story.html
https://nypost.com/2019/05/15/jeff-koons-rabbit-sculpture-goes-for-record-91m/
https://nypost.com/2019/05/15/beto-orourke-mocked-for-posting-facebook-live-haircut-video/
https://nypost.com/2019/05/16/death-row-inmate-forgoes-final-meal-to-feed-the-homeless/
https://nypost.com/2019/05/16/pope-gives-migrant-kids-a-ride-in-his-popemobile-in-vatican-city/
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BuzzFeed: Leaked Records Reveal Tony Robbins Berated Abuse Victims, And Former Followers Accuse Him Of Sexual Advances
I’ve made several posts about Tony Robbins over the years, several of which presaged the recent BuzzFeed expose:
Two former followers who went on to work for Robbins provided BuzzFeed News with signed statements swearing under oath that they felt he had sexually harassed them by repeatedly pursuing them after they made clear they weren’t interested. Two more women who worked as his assistants said Robbins expected them to work alone with him when he was naked in his hotel room or in the shower. And another former employee said she was fired after having a consensual sexual relationship with Robbins. The events described by all five women took place in the 1990s and early 2000s, when Robbins’ fame was skyrocketing and before he married his second wife…
…Interviews and records reveal how Robbins has created a highly sexualized environment in which both men and women have been told to touch themselves intimately and simulate orgasms — but he has repeatedly singled women out of the crowd for more personal attention. One secret recording from 2018 captured him laughing as he told a woman in the audience that he wanted her to “come up onstage and make love to me.” And two former bodyguards told BuzzFeed News they were sent out to trawl audiences for attractive women on Robbins’ behalf. Two women told BuzzFeed News they had witnessed it or experienced it themselves.
…Robbins’ intensive multiday events are often held in rooms kept deliberately cold and run from early in the morning to well past midnight, with few breaks for food and water. Followers are encouraged to run across hot coals. Internal company emails reveal concerns about fans suffering mental breakdowns after days of emotional exhaustion as well as “sleep deprivation and dehydration.” In this intense atmosphere, some audience members became disoriented as the days went by, said Todd Spendley, a former logistics contractor for the organization. “We used to joke about it,” he said. “People started ‘popping like popcorn.’”
…Robbins demanded relentless energy and a willingness to confront your darkest fears. He spoke openly about his use of “taboo language,” humor, and other shock tactics to try to shake fans out of emotional stagnation — often swearing, berating audience members, and talking graphically about sex — and he didn’t censor himself even when addressing his most troubled fans. For some, this led to ecstasy. Others found his events mentally and physically shattering.
King said he soon found that a key part of his job involved responding to calls about participants who had threatened or attempted suicide or needed to be hospitalized after suffering mental breakdowns. At one 1995 Life Mastery event in Hawaii, he said he had to intervene after one participant started biting members of the hotel’s security staff and guests. “I was dealing with crisis and emotional meltdowns from the start,” he told BuzzFeed News.
“Date With Destiny” events could be especially difficult. The six-day program, which currently costs as much as $7,995 per person, left little time for sleep or rest and was packed with soul-searching activities and deeply personal “interventions” in which Robbins selected audience members to publicly unpack their despair.
…Gary King said this was the sort of line he had often heard Robbins use to distract nervous women during fire-walks: “Which one of your breasts is bigger?” And by now, he had reason to believe that Robbins’ intimate interest in his female fans was more than just professional.
King said that Robbins often dispatched him to get the phone numbers of attractive women in the audience, an allegation which Robbins’ lawyers fiercely denied. Though he felt deep down that what he saw wasn’t right, King said his entire world revolved around Robbins, so he tried to bury his discomfort. But as time went on, he said, his concerns grew. “Ultimate power corrupts,” King said. “I watched it like a movie unfolding.”
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LAT: Yesterday once more: The feel-good sadness of a Carpenters fan convention
Downey, about 13 miles south of Los Angeles, officially became a city in 1956. By then a growing aerospace industry had established it as a free-standing suburban enclave. Downey scored big in the pop-culture sweepstakes: It has the oldest surviving McDonalds and is the birthplace of Taco Bell. It was a hot-rod hotbed and home to musicians Dave and Phil Alvin, Metallica’s James Hetfield and Weird Al Yankovic.
But it wasn’t any music from Downey that affected the Carpenters sound; it was the orderliness and control of the place itself. After restrictive covenants were ruled unenforceable, real estate agents found ways to keep homeowners from selling to nonwhites. Then, in the aftermath of the Watts riots of 1965, whites fled many communities bordering Downey, but the city itself remained unchanged and unruffled, in large part because it had its own police and fire departments and school district, and was thus able to fend off integration for some years to come.
Agnes and Harold Carpenter, Karen and Richard’s parents, moved the family from New Haven, Conn. to Downey in 1963, in large part to continue Richard’s musical education. Once there, their kids created a sound out of various playfully high-toned California musics, including Burt Bacharach’s commuter romanticism, the go-kart go of the Beach Boys and the whiz-bang vocalizing of the Hi-Los and the Anita Kerr Singers. The sound and lyrics carried a nostalgic longing for the way things used to be almost from the moment the Carpenters started. Karen and Richard were in their 20s and wishing for it to be yesterday once more.
Posted in California, Race
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