From Blogosphere to Vlogosphere

Anatoly Karlin writes:

times the views as writing out a more labor intensive and K-selected blog post.

The Alt Right child prodigy “soph” – recently profiled by Mr. Bernstein – is currently just shy of a million subscribers on YouTube. She has had 17 million views since she started her (rather irregular) vlogging career in August 2015. That’s approximately what the Unz Review currently generates in half a year, and we have far, far more visitors now than we did even just a couple of years ago.

The typical video by the psychometrist Edward Dutton – probably the most high profile HBD vlogger – gets around 10,000-20,000 views. I am reasonably sure that this is well above what the typical article by James Thompson here gets. My most popular “HBD” article ever – The Idiocy of the Average – got something like 40,000 views IIRC. The Golden One, a Swedish alt right pagan bodybuilder whose videos I recently binge watched, has 100,000 subscribers, and most of his videos – rather low effort productions with minimal editing or graphics – get at least 20,000 views. The most high profile vloggers make enough money to make a comfortable living (Sargon of Akkad was getting $15,000 from YouTube ads before they demonetized his account)….

Where has that old blogosphere gone?

(1) Many of the small, old school bloggers just stopped blogging. It was the digital venereal disease that is social media that killed them off more than anything else from around 2010. To have a vigorous blogosphere, you need a tightly connected network of independent bloggers bouncing ideas and arguments off each other, but when 75% of them have migrated to Twitter, there’s no longer sufficient scope in the community to generate the vigorous and counter-argument on which the old blogosphere thrived.

(2) Some bloggers were snapped up by larger websites. As a rule, the ones with stable backing from moneyed patrons were the main ones that survived and thrived (e.g. this very venue).

(3) Some parts of the blogging HBDsphere have gone into or were recruited into actual science. This is perhaps the single biggest positive development.

(4) Rising SJWism has also forced many of these discussions into closed boards, mailing lists, and Slack chats (this describes NRx and the HBDsphere).

Comments at Anatoly Karlin:

* One historical analogy to consider, is that a century ago a very similar Poz also took hold in advanced society, in Weimar Germany, where the world’s first ‘trans-gender’ clinic opened there in 1919. – In 1933 that clinic was burned to the ground by the Hitler Youth. The pendulum may swing yet again.

* Trying to negotiate and plead completely failed. Power does not relent peacefully. Swedish people, en masse, created a bunch of organic socities. The first unions were created like this. The co-operate grocer stores (which were co-owned by the shoppers themselves) were created like this. ABF – arbetarnas bildningsförbund – was created like this in order to educate the workers about their rights, and also to increase literacy. This was before universal education. This went on in sphere after sphere. Collective bargaining power is a mighty thing indeed once it fully blooms.

What happened in Sweden was essentially a state within a state, that massively increased its bargaining power vis-a-vis powerful corporations and forced its hand. YouTube is acting on pressure from Jewish lobbies but also USG pressure. There is no free market. If the “free market” esisted then YouTube would not purge these people, because it is manifestly popular and it brings in money. They are purged because of ideological pressure, giving to lie to the myth of the “free market”.

A problem for many people on the Alt Right is that they are basically racist libertarians. Many people came from libertarian and/or conservative backgrounds and still carry that baggage, so they idealise markets. But markets are not your friends and left untouched, a natural tendecy to oligarchy and/or monopoly will happen. In Sweden, nationalists are already starting to work on similar projects. Dan Eriksson has plans to create a large number of houses for Swedish nationalists, where we can have conferences and/or just hang out. The first house has already been opened. People talk about taking this approach to many other areas of life and I think this is needed.

At the risk of sounding stereotypical, we really do need to Think Big™. Censorship will only increase in the future and hiding in the shadows trying to get money is not a viable solution, it’s a rationalisation for cowards. Only mass organising is a viable long-term path, and it needs to happen now. Depending on a small number of donors is a critical mistake. A decentralised system is far harder to beat, as various Swedish oligarchs discovered over a century ago.

* I download all the videos I am interested in and just convert them to audio-only formats like .m4a. I only listen to them when walking, commuting, at the gym etc. Most of the content is just debating, so actually seeing video is completely unnecessary.

Secondly, even if the amount of vloggers have increased, everyone have their personal taste. I like some podcasts a lot more even if their quality is about equal to others simply because I like their personalities more. There is a lot of repetition across the WN/AR vloggersphere, so you only need to pick out a few you like and that will cover your bases. I don’t think people watch/listen to as much as you think they do.

Lastly, a lot of podcasts are focused on particular regions. I won’t get Sweden-specific stuff from a US podcast. Just as a Russian guy wouldn’t get his Russian politics podcast from a Swedish stuff. And you always want to mix the local with the international to get a good mix. It’s not good to be too isolated, just as it is bad too be too unmoored from your roots and surrounding.

* I don’t get the popularity of videos. I can’t really watch Ed Dutton or any other youtube personality. They are just endlessly wordy. The information density is so low, I occasionally just skim through the transcript.

The question is whether viewership is really the essential thing. A quality audience also counts for something.

* I think that a big part of the solution is technological. Why has the Pirate Bay been able to stay online despite massive attempts to shut it down? Because 1) many jurisdictions are available to move the website to, 2) making a full backup of the website and moving between these jurisdictions is easy and fast

Neither (1) nor especially (2) is currently true for accounts on social networks such as Youtube, Twitter, Facebook or Patreon. If your account is censored or deleted for whatever reason (for example, the Terms of Service change), it can be extremely time-consuming to move your operations anywhere else, and the more content is in your account, the longer it takes (and you also lose all comments & subscribers).

This is like feudalism. A few landlords, many peasants. And no Yuri’s Day, either.

So anyway,
The solution for (1) already kind of exists – federated social media such as Peertube, MediaGoblin, Diaspora. PeerTube is like many different Youtubes, with “instances” that can be hosted by anyone, all of which can communicate with each other (well, unless they block other instances) and share data. Go to any PeerTube instance, and you’ll see a familiar interface. Moreover, the hosting costs are low because the videos stay up with BitTorrent.
The problem is that without (2), anyone signing up to one of these is no better off than with Youtube – in fact, things can be much more draconian, because any instance can be hosted by just a random guy with no reputation to worry about if he decides to go nuts and ban everyone.

Unfortunately, account migration is not currently possible in any of these projects.

Not in PeerTube:
https://github.com/Chocobozzz/PeerTube/issues/549

Not even in Diaspora, where it had been advertised as a huge feature since 2011, yet absolutely no progress has been made:
https://github.com/diaspora/diaspora/issues/908

So watch this space. The day that easy account migration becomes possible on one of these federated social media sites is the day that control over discourse begins to decentralize once again.

https://transferring-videos.com might work as a stopgap solution to (2) for some. It’s limited to only the few big Western social media sites, but at least it means that some of your content will remain up unless there’s a coordinated attack against you across all those sites. (which is, really, the direction things are going in. Federated social media with easy account migration would be preferable, but it doesn’t exist yet)

* Some videos are high signal to noise. It’s not inherently a bad format, any more than some vapid celebrity podcast is akin to Bach just because they’re both “sound”.

The problem with YouTube is that a few years back, for reasons best known to them, they decided to prioritize “length of time viewers spend watching a video” rather than “how much viewers like a video”. The result was to make YouTube more similar to television. You’d think the boomers who run YouTube really missed the old idiot box. The new system rewards those who stretch things out as long as possible, and punishes those who like to make videos that are “short and packed”.

This algorithm change put some animators out of business (animation requires a lot of labour per unit of footage, which previously had been offset by their high popularity). One artist I was following at the time (SexualLobster – yeah, his stuff was rather degenerate, but amusing) had his YouTube income cut in half, tried to keep going with just Patreon for a while, then seemed to give up and went to work for a studio.

* Video is a valid format when there is visual content to be presented. Cinema being the classic, but by no means only, example.

Video as a substitute for text, which is what most vlogging consists of, is for illiterate plebeians. As a means of transmitting non-visual information video has inherently lower bandwidth than text which makes vlog consumption a gigantic waste of time.

That vlogging far exceeds blogging in popularity is evidence that 90% or more of the human population should be eradicated.

* I couldn’t understand why YouTube allowed thought crime content for so long. I assumed they allowed it so that ZOGist intel agencies could monitor who was drawn to the content and study the progression of radicalization. This also allowed them to steer people toward their assets such as David Duke and Dick Spencer. Now they are shutting it down. Have they gathered enough data now? Why allow it for so long? I remember being puzzled by this way back in 2012.

It is clear smart phones have killed our attention spans. It’s harder than ever to read books. Things are winding down, the frogs are gay, the libraries are filled with drag queens. Buy and hold Bitcoin brothers, that’s all we have left.

* Television intruded on the influence of newspapers and news magazines. Now YouTube is pushing blogs aside. It seems like the same pattern.

Also, there has always been elite control of most influential media. Hearst comes to mind: “Remember the Maine!”*

Furthermore, down through history, mass media have always had to be K-selected in order to reach the masses, because the portion of the audience with high comprehension and analytical aptitude has always been small. Until relatively recently, huge numbers of people couldn’t even read; they learned by word of mouth or from priests and public speakers.

So, today we see the same thing. Spoken-word mediocrity continues in the form of YouTube, and that becomes the channel of ideas for the largest number of people among those who even care about understanding the world.

#257 6-12-19 From Blogs To Vlogs To Where After YouTube, Have Dissidents Anywhere To Go?

00:00 Steve Sailer: The Great Awokening Conspiracy Theory
06:00 Kyle Rowland on HBD
11:00 KMG arrives: From Blogs To Vlogs To Where? After YouTube, Have Dissidents Anywhere To Go?
1:29:00 Women’s Soccer: Ugly American Women On The Pitch
1:50:00 Pride Month Roundup [incorporates Kirsten Gillibrand & Elizabeth Warren Go Nuts, Florist Targeted By Gays & Masterpiece Cakeshop Sued Again, 180 Companies Come Out For Abortion & “Gestational Slavery” Under Attack]
2:12:00 Immigration Roundup [incorporates George Will Chooses The Economy Over Americans, Immigration As Revenge (NYT Op-Ed), Congolese Dumped In San Antonio & Illegals Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Papers]
2:34:00 God Says Women Shouldn’t Settle
3:12:00 David Weissman: Why I left team MAGA
3:24:00 Our culture needed an adult. Gayle King rose to the challenge.
3:32:00 Senator Hawley Attacks Pelagianism
3:37:00 Crimestopping By Genetics

Posted in Blogging, Censorship, Youtube | Comments Off on From Blogosphere to Vlogosphere

Google May Have Just Increased The Chances Of Antitrust Action Against It

David Pinsen writes: Last week, I wrote that Alphabet (GOOG), (GOOGL) had an inauspicious weekend, mainly due to the news that the U.S. Department of Justice was preparing an antitrust investigation into it. You would think that Alphabet’s Google would have wanted to lay low after that, but instead its YouTube subsidiary “demonetized” a number of right-leaning channels, most prominently Steven Crowder’s, as Fox New’s Tucker Carlson discussed with journalist Glenn Greenwald in the video below (videos are normally monetized on YouTube via ads, enabling both the video’s creators and YouTube to profit).

The focus at Seeking Alpha is on investing, rather than politics, so I don’t want to dwell too much on the politics here, except to note that Glenn Greenwald is on the left politically, and dislikes Crowder, but opposes YouTube’s actions on principle. The investment-specific issue here is that Google’s actions are increasing the company’s risk by drawing further antitrust scrutiny and possibly exposing it to shareholder litigation, as I elaborate below.

YouTube’s demonetization wasn’t limited to Crowder: Smaller channels were hit too, including Luke Ford’s as Ford mentions below (coincidentally, I had mentioned Ford’s channel to Seeking Alpha’s CEO as an example of the potential of the medium, at a meeting in April).

Posted in Google | Comments Off on Google May Have Just Increased The Chances Of Antitrust Action Against It

New York Times Doesn’t Get The Joke

Comments at Steve Sailer:

* Except if you read the article carefully, it is clear he was never actually a member of ‘the alt-right’. He was always a leftist who just used to watch alt-light youtube videos and who fancied Lauren Southern.

* No one has ever been a “member” of “the alt-right.”

* Imagine having the high ground in every single cultural institution and this is the best psyop you can do.

* The problem is you can’t just copy youtube. You need a payment processor, and financial institutions fold like a cheap suit when the SJWs get on them. So either you don’t allow “far right” material on your youtube clone, giving nobody a reason to use your site, or you have to use a porn payment processor, meaning the playing field is tilted toward youtube before you even get started.

* The idea of analyzing a data dump of his YouTube history is pretty interesting.

These are the four things that Roose lists as beliefs that Cain accepted after watching “far-right decentralized cult YouTube personalities”:

— Western civilization is under threat from Muslim immigrants
— Western civilization is under threat from cultural Marxists
— Innate I.Q. differences explain racial disparities
— Feminism is a dangerous ideology

Cain did not buy into the following ideas:

— Holocaust denial
— The need for a white ethnostate

His far-right binge led Cain to:

— Identify as a traditional conservative committed to old-fashioned gender norms
— Date an evangelical Christian woman
— Debate liberal friends (which implies he had and retained liberal friends)

Rejecting his far-right beliefs led Cain to:

— Buy a gun
— Start his own YouTube channel with left-wing edgy humor and memes

Props to Roose for being specific about the beliefs of his subject and not exaggerating things. The four beliefs that Cain had seem pretty reasonable to me (depending on a couple of definitions). His resulting behavior seems positive, a girlfriend, doubts about World War T, and a viewpoint-diverse social circle. The things he rejected show that he balanced the evidence and made his own decisions. Not bad for “an aimless young man interested in video games.”

On the other hand, becoming a left-wing YouTuber and buying a Glock seem like unfortunate developments. I wish him the best. I don’t think the YouTube gig is going to pay enough to support marriage to his girlfriend (if she is still around).

* Caleb Cain had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Brother.

* All the talk about how YouTube’s algorithms “played into the hands” of far-right creators seems to boil down to “their videos were popular! Damn them!”

* Voxday has started unauthorized tv. It is not exactly like youtube, but it does have some great stuff on it. Owen Benjamin is putting his stuff there, David the Good, and medievalist professor Rachel Fulton Brown is creating a medieval history class that will be on there. It is the ground floor beginning for this option so I am looking forward to see how it grows. unauthorized.tv is the website.

* Have you guys ever wondered if one could ever become un-redpilled?

I mean, once you’ve read about and understood the proofs for race realism and IQ differences etc., is it possible to just go back to believing normie things? How does that work?

I’d think that some of these “former alt-right” guys are consciously lying (i.e. they want to get their jobs/social lives/etc. back), while the rest might never have fully understood the thing at all. I don’t know what the proportions are, but I’d guess the majority is in the consciously lying category.

* A ‘radical’ is of course a leftist, the equivalent on the right being ‘reactionary.’

So the title of the piece, ‘The Making of a Youtube Radical,’ is accurate, if unintentionally so.

There’s room to move in denazification, Caleb! Keep up the good work, comrade.

* Here, to my mind, is the money quote from this garbage NYT article:

“But critics and independent researchers say YouTube has inadvertently created a dangerous on-ramp to extremism by combining two things: a business model that rewards provocative videos with exposure and advertising dollars, and an algorithm that guides users down personalized paths meant to keep them glued to their screens.”

The problem, you see, is that YouTube is giving people what they want and allowing them to follow their own “personalized path.” We can’t have that!

As usual, the NYT is all-in for a revanchist program that puts people like them back in control of the information people are allowed to see.

* This is analogous to how academia shut down race research. You had to get funded by Pioneer and present your paper at American Reconnaissance’s conference and get published by Mankind Quarterly. No one else would touch you. You had to associate with outfits that were easy for the other side to slime, which meant that nobody ever read your research.

* Most white people want hate speech censured, particularly on venues like YouTube, which is essentially an over the air TV network like ABC or NBC with no restrictions to access. Normal, rational white people don’t want their kids exposed to hateful alt-right dogma. They don’t want their kids to go down a rabbit hole of white nationalist indoctrination and radicalization, which has the potential to ruin their lives.

I own Alphabet stock as do many other people I know. As far as I know, none of these people want to own stock in a cesspool of racism and hate speech. There have been very serious campaigns launched by stockholders and advertisers to clean up YouTube. Beyond that, private companies have always been able to police the speech promulgated on their platforms. This is not even a First Amendment issue, as it isn’t the government that is abridging speech, although the First Amendment too has its limits.

Here is the First Amendment:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

The alt-righters that style themselves as strict First Amendment absolutists apparently have never read it. Or having read it, don’t understand it. Because all the clauses therein, with the exception of Establishment, are designed to empower the majority with all the tools it needs to destroy a fringe movement like the alt-right.

Freedom of speech works both ways. They can shout you down.

Freedom of the press is lethal to you. There has been a constant drumbeat of anti-alt-right articles, particularly since Charlottesville. Big tech takes notice.

Freedom of assembly means when you assemble, your opponents can assemble. And they tend to greatly outnumber you.

Freedom to petition the government. Well, I don’t have to tell you that governments at all levels are being petitioned and not in your favor.

So there you have it. The First Amendment you people say you are devoted to is actually your worst enemy.

* Don’t make it too complicated.

Alt Right figures are being deplatformed, blackballed from mainstream society, and driven to the financial ruin.

They’re scared and they want to go back to their old boring middle-class lives, pre-Alt Right.

So they feed all sorts of BS to the media about how they “changed.” Hopefully, after all that, their old employer will rehire them and they can go back to how things used to be.

I’d also say that many Alt Right figures (like Lauren Southern) are grifters. With the money drying up (due to pay services boycotting them), they want to move on to their next con. Roosh, for example, has transitioned from Alt Right PUA to Christian preacher.

It’s not about what they believe. It’s about making a living.

* It’s possible for the right to be radicalized and dangerous, but not possible for the left to become radicalized and dangerous: Marcuse would’ve made a great reporter for the NYT.

Conspiracy theories:
-The Rosenbergs were innocent.
-Rosenbergs persecuted because they were Jewish (tho’ prosecutor and judge were Jewish.)
-The King Alfred Plan
-AIDS was invented or propagated by whites to kill blacks.
-A cure for AIDS was avoided to kill gays.
-There was no infiltration of the US gov. by Soviet agents in the 40’s and 50’s
-McCarthy blacklisted Hollywood communists
-Trump colluded with the Russians
-The cult of Hitler reigns supreme, as the right today is a consumed with white supremacism or Nazism or Neo Nazi. The Hitler of the 1940’s never dreamed he would capture the hearts and minds of his arch enemy – the USA – to the extent that he has in 2019, almost 75 years after his death.
-And finally, the left has no conspiracy theories. They mostly happen on the right.

* My point was that he was an aimless, broke young man. He needs to pull himself together and get a job and a relationship.

YouTube is a time sinkhole that only is a living for a small minority, and even for them you’re a sharecropper on someone else’s platform. Google changes the rules on income all the time. The Panda algorithm update and various AdSense changes have put many websites out of business, and that is even before the censorship problems. YouTube is not a career.

As for guns, I have not problem with owning a Glock or 20. But he bought one based on fear of online death threats, which indicate a certain level of paranoia. When people threaten to kill you online, your odds of being killed have increased about 0.00001 percent, the odds of being hit by a meterorite, and mentally healthy people understand that. And there was nothing in the article about his having trained with the weapon. I want lots of people to own lots of guns, but not him. He sounds like a nut.

* I’m really interested in how Cain did a 180 on the belief “that innate I.Q. differences explained racial disparities.” This is usually a one-way ratchet: One you see the light, you never go back.

In the case of William Saletan, I think he is a combination of trying ot walk-back a case of potential career suicide, socially and culturally not wanting to hang with “race realists,” and obfuscation about what he believes on the factual stuff with a touchie feelie layer.

Maybe Cain just walked back the “innate” part, feeling like Turkheimer and company that the gap is wholely or predominantly environmental. Maybe he thinks that a big part of disproportionate representation in high level jobs is a combination of a cognitive gap and discrimination, not solely the former.

Most people who do not believe “that innate I.Q. differences explained racial disparities” won’t even discuss it and don’t want to hear any facts. That state can only survive in the absence of understanding. Once you learn about it, you cannot unsee it. If Cain is engaging with people online on YouTube, I’d be interested in hearing him on this subject.

* Due to some quirk or some unique circumstances, he might have absorbed the “alt-right” point of view without really understanding what it’s based on, and then kept regurgitating it, until, due to some change in personal circumstances (like a new girlfriend) he started to absorb another point of view (again, without much thinking), and started regurgitating it.

I think this is a big part of it: most people just aren’t very deep thinkers and will eventually absorb what they just happen to stumble across. I myself am unfortunately in this category, and that’s something I’m going to try and change.

But I also think it is more subtle than outright social intimidation. There are a lot of guys on the alt-right that don’t have friends, career prospects, lovers, much of a future life in general to go back to, no matter how ardently they “redeem” themselves, and they know it. Social stigma has little meaningful impact for somebody with no social capital and little concrete prospect of gaining any. I don’t think this guy is quite that bad off, but his life doesn’t seem like a particularly happy, successful one in which he stands to lose a lot. Obviously, if we were talking about some L5 dude at Google on the down-low, it’d be another story.

(Perhaps because they largely consist of the types of people who’ve never struggled to attain social connections, the MSM is comically bad at understanding this dynamic, hence their belief that yelling “SHAME” at ever higher decibels is going to eventually do the trick.)

I believe that it is more whether he genuinely feels like he’s a good person. This can be especially important if you are a guy with not a lot going for you in life and you want to turn it all around, as I suspect this guy might be: if you think you are genuinely scum on top of that, you are going to have a really tough time focusing on improving yourself. It messes with your brain processes. There’s a lot of people out there all too willing to conflate favoring restriction immigration numbers with actually *hating* immigrants, or a willingness to be open to the idea that IQ has a biological component with *hating* different races, or a belief that women are deeply different from men with *hating* women, or whatever. I think the more perspective/intelligent people who comment here (Twinkie, PhysicistDave, LTC, among others) show that this is utter nonsense. But there’s no question that the “real” white supremacist contingent on the alt-right, among other undesirables (incels, Holocaust deniers, that kind of thing), definitely helps confirm that in the eyes of the masses, and as I alluded to, most people aren’t particularly deep thinkers, much of our ruling classes included. As an analogy, most humans aren’t wired to be Origen or Avicenna, bent to justify the faith, most are oriented to accept the faith and not question the details too much, while their day-to-day practice is rather hit or miss depending on the circumstances.

The desire to genuinely believe you are a decent person can be very powerful. More powerful than the desire to actually be one, for that matter. To wax Joachim Fest for a bit, lot of the absolute worst movements in history had, at their core, that very dangerous kind of person with a strong but directionless craving for morality.

* I can easily imagine someone believing that blacks have the same innate abilities as whites – I more or less used to believe it myself. But how can you unlearn it, after having read all the contrary evidence? That’s just incomprehensible to me.

One explanation might be that these “ex-alt-right” people never really understood the evidence, so they held those opinions without much evidence. Due to some quirk or some unique circumstances, he might have absorbed the “alt-right” point of view without really understanding what it’s based on, and then kept regurgitating it, until, due to some change in personal circumstances (like a new girlfriend) he started to absorb another point of view (again, without much thinking), and started regurgitating it.

I still don’t understand it much. If you don’t think much about these things, then wouldn’t just absorbing the socially accepted normal point of view make the most sense? How could someone become “alt-right” without thinking a lot about it? Are there pockets in our society where the “alt-right” is the default position, which unthinking people just absorb?

Posted in Youtube | Comments Off on New York Times Doesn’t Get The Joke

Left Wing Media Activist Email Leak Shows How They Deplatform Political Rivals

Tim Pool writes: Left Wing Media Activist Email Leak Shows How They Deplatform Political Rivals. I recently received an email leak that I believe shows how activists working as journalists target their political rivals for deplatforming. Following the Vox controversy with Steven Crowder, or #VoxAdpocalypse, and mass censorship hitting youtube I found it pertinent to show how these activists in media operate and how they use framing devices to target people like conservatives and other political groups.

The reporter in question has advocated for government regulation to restrict speech and I believe this shows her to be an activist acting to target and cause harm to political rivals.

The email was confirmed to me by Chase bank on two occasions and the contents of the email were referred to in my correspondence with Slate. While not directly confirming the email I believe this with Chase bank’s confirmation is sufficient to confirm the authenticity of the email.

UPDATE: Slate has provided an official comment
“In the course of her reporting about banks providing financial services for 1776.shop, an e-commerce site associated with the Proud Boys, April reached out to those banks for comment about their policies of providing services to a designated hate group. In both her email and in the subsequent reporting, April provided important context and we stand by her reporting on this newsworthy topic.”

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Free Trade Doesn’t Work: What Should Replace It and Why by Ian Fletcher

Here are some highlights from this 2011 book:

* Foreign governments treat trade as war and use every trick in the book—legal and illegal under international agreements—to grab their industries a competitive advantage. And even when they don’t cheat, they are often more skilled in cultivating their industries than we are. Toyota, despite its troubles, somehow didn’t go bankrupt when GM did.

* Furthermore, vested interests are not infinitely powerful. They have to persuade the rest of the country, especially Congress, to go along with the policies they want. Despite political corruption, all the money in the world couldn’t bribe Congress to pass a law requiring people to roller-skate to work; legislation always requires some non-laughable justification. Therefore, lobbying successfully for free trade requires credible economic ideas that support it.

* Japan clearly did not become the second-richest nation in the world practicing free trade. China is conceded from one end of the political spectrum to the other to thumb its nose at free trade, but it is booming.
Even Europe seems to handle these matters better than we do: Germanic and Scandinavian Europe (Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Holland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland) usually run healthy surpluses, and the Eurozone as a whole has had its trade within pocket change of balance since the euro was created in 1999.20 Thirteen European countries now pay their factory workers better than we do,21 and Germany (not China!) was the world’s largest exporter as late as 2008.22 Do all these countries know something we don’t?

* Economist Paul Craig Roberts, an Assistant Treasury Secretary under Reagan and today one of the most distinguished critics of free trade, reports seeing, when he was a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, memos analyzing what grants that think tank could obtain from the administration of George Bush, Sr. in exchange for firing him.24 (He had displeased the administration by criticizing its economic policies.) Bush’s science advisor, Alan Bromley, was forbidden to talk to the media for six months in 1991 after he told The Wall Street Journal that America needed an industrial policy.25 In 2003, the Defense Department temporarily shut down its own Advisory Group on Electron Devices after this group released a report detailing the destruction of U.S. innovation capabilities in electronics by imports.26 And Bruce Bartlett, one of the early figures of Reagan’s supply side economics, was fired by the conservative National Center for Policy Analysis in 2005 for denouncing George Bush, Jr. as a conservative “impostor,” later publishing a book by that title.27 Who pays the piper will certainly try to call the tune, no government likes to hear bad news, and shooting the messenger remains one of the favored ways of making bad news go away.

* When one scratches the editorial-page surface of economics and comes face to face with its intellectual core, one finds a mass of equations. This gives it the appearance of hard fact. How could anything so mathematical be a matter of opinion? (It also looks distinctly like something which people who don’t understand it should keep their mouths shut about.) But in fact, sophisticated math is actually overrated as an economic tool, as hinted by the fact that hedge funds employing it fared no better than others in the financial meltdown of 2008.

The overreliance of contemporary economics upon sophisticated mathematics creates a number of problems.34 The fundamental one is that because it is easier to mathematize some ideas than others, some ideas appear truer than they really are. But the presumption physics enjoys, that mathematically “elegant” theories are more likely to be true, simply doesn’t hold in economics, however much many economists may want it to.35 The aggressive use of simplifying assumptions can deliver elegant math on demand, but only at the price of misrepresenting reality.

* Some economists give unhelpful answers about free trade simply because they don’t think the national economic interest matters. Technically, they are of course correct that choosing America as the entity whose economic well-being one cares about is arbitrary, from the point of view of pure economics. There is nothing in economic science that privileges whatever nation lies between the 49th parallel and the Rio Grande.

* Contrary to myth, modern history has simply not been a one-way escalator to ever increasing global economic interconnectedness. Instead, this interconnectedness has ebbed and flowed upon larger political currents. It was pushed up by colonialism, but pushed down when former colonies, like the U.S. and India, adopted protectionist policies of their own after independence. It was pushed down by fascism on the right and socialism on the left. But it was pushed up by the Cold War. Prior to the 1970s, the peak of world trade as a percentage of world economic output was in 1914—a peak to which it did not return for two generations.52

* prosperous.53
Modern technology does not mandate free trade either. While technology indeed favors the expansion of trade, by reducing shipping and transaction costs, it does not mandate that this trade be free, rather than subject to tariffs. Indeed, if technology erodes natural trade barriers like distance, and trade barriers are sometimes beneficial (as we will shall see), then modern technology can, paradoxically, increase the justification for tariffs.
All inevitability arguments are moral evasions, anyhow, because offloading responsibility to the free market ignores the fact that we choose whether, and how much, to regulate markets. This is probably what the great protectionist President Teddy Roosevelt was driving at when he wrote that “pernicious indulgence in the doctrine of free trade seems inevitably to produce fatty degeneration of the moral fiber.”54
THE NATION-STATE IS NOT IRRELEVANT

It is sometimes suggested that free trade is a moot question because globalization has made the nation-state irrelevant. As Doug Oliver of the Cessna aircraft company recently said, in response to complaints about his company outsourcing its entry-level Skycatcher plane to a firm that supplies China’s air force:

Nothing is American any more. Nothing is German any more. Nothing is Japanese any more. Harley-Davidson sources parts from all around the world. Let’s face it, we’re in a global economy.55

This is all technically true (with respect to the sourcing of parts at least), but it misses the point. Even if the internationality of modern supply chains means that America’s trade balance adds up at the component, rather than finished product, level, we still run a deficit or a surplus. And even if who builds which finished products isn’t the key to prosperity anymore, who builds which components increasingly is.

* Ironically, the enduring relevance of the national economy is clearest in some of the “poster child” countries of globalization, like Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, and Ireland. In each of these nations, economic success was the product of policies enacted by governments that were in some sense nationalist. Japan industrialized after the Meiji Restoration of 1868 to avoid being colonized by some Western power. Taiwan did it out of fear of mainland China. South Korea did it out of fear of North Korea. Ireland did it to escape economic domination by England. In each case, the driving force was not simply desire for profit. This exists in every society (including resource-rich basket cases like Nigeria, where it merely produces gangsterism), but does not reliably crystallize into the policies needed for economic growth. The driving force was national political needs which found a solution in economic development.

* Michael Porter, one of the most distinguished faculty members of Harvard Business School, has observed:

“Competitive advantage is created and sustained through a highly localized process. Differences in national economic structures, values, cultures, institutions, and histories contribute profoundly to competitive success. The role of the home nation seems to be as strong as or stronger than ever. While globalization of competition might appear to make the nation less important, instead it seems to make it more so.”

So what we can call economic national character matters. One sign of this is that even multinational companies are almost always strongly tied to particular nations. Despite the myth of the stateless corporation, only a few dozen firms worldwide maintain over half their production facilities abroad.

* In reality, the world economy remains what it has been for a very long time: a thin crust of genuinely global economy (more visible than its true size due to its concentration in media, finance, technology, and luxury goods) over a network of regionally linked national economies, over vast sectors of every economy that are not internationally traded at all (70 percent of the U.S. economy, for example).70 On present trends, it will remain roughly this way for the rest of our lives.71 The world economy in the early 21st century is not even remotely borderless.

* Free traders since 19th-century classical liberals like the English Richard Cobden and the French Frederic Bastiat have promised that free trade would bring world peace. Even the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been known to make this sunny claim,72 which does not survive historical scrutiny. Britain, the most freely trading major nation of the 19th century, fought more wars than any other power, sometimes openly with the aim of imposing free trade on reluctant nations. (That’s how Hong Kong became British.) Post-WWII Japan has been blatantly protectionist, but has had a more peaceful foreign policy than free-trading America. In reality, free trade sometimes dampens international conflict and sometimes exacerbates it. It enriches belligerent autocrats and helps them dodge democratic reforms. Today, it strengthens the Chinese military by building up China’s econ world economy in the early 21st century is not even remotely borderless.
FREE TRADE AS FOREIGN POLICY

Free traders since 19th-century classical liberals like the English Richard Cobden and the French Frederic Bastiat have promised that free trade would bring world peace. Even the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been known to make this sunny claim,72 which does not survive historical scrutiny. Britain, the most freely trading major nation of the 19th century, fought more wars than any other power, sometimes openly with the aim of imposing free trade on reluctant nations. (That’s how Hong Kong became British.) Post-WWII Japan has been blatantly protectionist, but has had a more peaceful foreign policy than free-trading America. In reality, free trade sometimes dampens international conflict and sometimes exacerbates it. It enriches belligerent autocrats and helps them dodge democratic reforms. Today, it strengthens the Chinese military by building up China’s economy and expanding its access to military technology through both trade and through purchases of American technology companies with the money earned thereby.
Attempts to link free trade to counterterrorism don’t stand up, either.73 The U.S. is the world’s leading free trader, but somehow the world’s biggest terrorist target anyway.

* Neither does free trade promote human rights. If China had to rely upon domestic demand to drive its economy, locking up its population as factory slaves would not be such a viable strategy. The same goes in other nations, and free trade agreements then frustrate attempts to impose sanctions on human rights violators. The sanctions imposed on South Africa in 1986 would be illegal today under WTO rules.76

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