SMH: Neo-Nazis go bush: Grampians gathering highlights rise of Australia’s far right

In his 2017 book Making Sense of the Alt Right, academic George Hawley wrote: “I am not implying that the Alt-Right is a terrorist movement. At the time of this writing, I am aware of no acts of physical violence directly connected to the Alt-Right.”

From the Sydney Morning Herald, Jan. 27, 2021:

The first thing hiker Nathaniel Maxwell noticed as he trudged towards an ancient rock cavern in the Grampians National Park last Saturday was the sound of dozens of voices singing Waltzing Matilda.

It was the Australia Day long weekend and as Mr Maxwell peered into the cave-like formation known as the Cool Chamber in central Victoria, he noticed that many of the men were wearing black T-shirts bearing a distinctive Celtic-style symbol. Others were wearing army fatigues. Some raised their arm in a Nazi salute. As Mr Maxwell walked away, he heard shouts of “white power!”

Other hikers and residents of nearby Halls Gap watched members of the same group marching through the small tourist town on Sunday and Monday. They assembled around the local barbecue area, some shirtless with Nazi tattoos, and sipped coffee outside the Black Panther Cafe, which is staffed and owned by an Indian family.

“We are the Ku Klux Klan,” one of them belligerently told a local, who declined to be named for fear of repercussions. Another heard the group screaming racist slogans as they got drunk on Sunday night while camping illegally at Lake Bellfield, a beautiful body of water at the foot of the Grampians’ granite peaks and ridges.

When Halls Gap resident James passed the group on his mountain bike on Sunday afternoon in town, he was addressed with a Sieg Heil.

“There were 40 white males, many with skinheads, some chanting ‘white power’. That is intimidating for anyone, let alone the young Asian families sharing the barbecue space,” he says…

The decision of Halls Gap locals to call the police and the immediate law enforcement response is indicative of a change in the way authorities, and many in the general public, are viewing extreme right-wing groups.

They were once widely dismissed as little more than disorganised attention-seeking misfits spruiking racist political manifestos, but Australia’s policing and security agencies are increasingly concerned about the capacity of a group adherent or lone wolf feeding off social media posts to commit an act of domestic terrorism.

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Make Noise: A Creator’s Guide to Podcasting and Great Audio Storytelling

Eric Nuzum writes in this 2019 book:

* There is a term that journalists and producers use to describe a certain type of production: a deep dive. A “deep dive” is a podcast story or episode (or long-form article, video, or other form of media) that explores a topic, happening, or event in great “depth”: lots of context and detail, as well as getting into the “how” and “why” of a story.

Guy likes to think of the role a deep dive plays in a listener’s life by taking the term and using it metaphorically.
“If you are on a boat and it’s very turbulent on the water, it’s very choppy, right. It’s very unpleasant,” he says. It becomes a metaphorical reference to the turbulence and drama of daily news, which can often overwhelm people and cause them to want to get a breakaway.

“All you have to do is dive twenty meters beneath the surface of the ocean, and it doesn’t matter if there’s a hurricane, because it’s always going to be calm. It doesn’t matter,” he says. “It’s always calm twenty meters down. The motion of the waves twenty meters above doesn’t affect what’s going on deep down. It’s calm. It’s quiet.”

… Guy sees his shows as the calm water underneath, the place where listeners can dive in to escape the turbulence.

…That’s actually a beautiful and thoughtful gift for his listeners. It’s saying that you, the listener, come to this show to get away from the frantic news of the day. The show is not just an escape, but a provider of perspective. All the craziness of the day and the week—they are all just waves on the surface: distractions. They will pass. In the deeper, still waters, we will be safe until things are calm.

* Recently a friend of an acquaintance called me for advice on starting a podcast. When I asked what the podcast was about, she told me they had done some investigative work on a local doctor who had been accused of molesting young female
patients—very young female patients.

“So tell me,” I asked. “Why would someone want to listen to that?”

“Because it is an important story,” was the reply. “And we really dive in deep on who this guy was and what makes him tick.”

I said that I didn’t doubt its importance and praised her for her journalism and efforts to approach a difficult and highly emotionally charged subject. But none of that was a reason to listen to the story. And it wasn’t a good reason to look at podcasting as the right way to distribute it.

I told her that it would be hard to imagine someone seeking out a podcast that was basically a biography of a serial rapist. I wasn’t suggesting that their portrait of this guy and his crimes wouldn’t be sympathetic, but that is really rough material.

“But no one else has this,” she protested. “We have interviews with a lot of his victims, those who knew him, and many others. We basically own this story.”

I told her that those were good reasons to cover the news story as a news story in their news programs on other platforms. But to create a stand-alone podcast, they were shitty reasons.

She just couldn’t understand why I would say this. The story was new material on a heavily reported story. It had been so widely covered before, that had to be a sign that people were interested in it.

I told her that in broadcasting, there are thousands of examples of news stories, big, important, relevant, news stories that were widely covered every day in the press—that had been found to drive listeners away in droves. Syrian refugees. The Bosnian war. Famine. Ebola. All incredibly important stories journalistically, but they drove many listeners away.

To put it simply, people couldn’t bear to hear that much bad news. It was too much.

* If the point of your journalism is to inform and enlighten as many people as possible, focus on how to tell the story in a way that engages them first, then informs and enlightens them. No one ever listened to a podcast because they “should” listen to it. That’s work. That’s not entertainment.

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No Evidence For Voter Fraud: A Guide To Statistical Claims About The 2020 Election

Anyone who believes that voter fraud played a significant role in the 2020 elections is not a clear thinker.

From the Hoover Institute: “We focus on fraud allegations with the appearance of statistical rigor. Trump and allies used statistics to claim some election facts would be unlikely if there had been no fraud. The claims fail either because sometimes the “fact” is inaccurate or it is accurate but not surprising. For example, a viral anonymous report claimed Dominion machines added 5.6% to Biden’s vote share. But, we show that the purported Dominion effect disappears as soon as we control for 2016 results, or make any number of other sensible design choices. Other times this is because accurate claims about the 2020 election simply are not that surprising. Trump and his allies claimed it was suspicious that Biden lost 18 of 19 counties that had correctly picked the winner since 1980. But we show that bellwether counties are bad at predicting future winners. Since these counties went for Trump in 2016, Biden’s low haul of bellwether counties isn’t suspicious at all. Likewise, in a lawsuit filed against PA the Texas Attorney General claimed that Biden had a “one-in-a-quadrillion” chance of winning. The probability comes from a report filed by Charles Cicchetti who examined election-to-election changes and the shift from early-to-late votes. We show Cicchetti’s tests are riddled with errors and vastly understate the probability of change. We apply his test historically and show that vote changes he said had a “one in almost infinite chance” of occurring actually happened in 6% of US elections. Our work is intended to help assess the security of US elections. We think it is important that non-partisan election experts evaluate fraud claims–to either identify suspicious results or reassure the public about the safety of US elections.”

Paper.

Justin Grimmer weighed in on the comments section at Hoover:

* Crowd size is a poor predictor of final votes, there were not more mail in ballots (we deal with that explicitly, you should read the paper!), the thousands of affidavits are largely nonsense or unrelated to fraud (you should read the news reports about this!), can you link to the video of ballots being destroyed? (the GA video was debunked), ballot run off happens all the time and isn’t evidence of fraud. Yes, there was much higher turnout this election, so Biden got more votes, but a smaller vote share than Obama. The Biden vote increases were not statistically impossible (you should read the paper, we cover this!). We also cover this bellwether argument, which is not a very good one and Nixon won Florida, Iowa, and Ohio but lost the presidency in 1960. I don’t know what to do with this last argument, but if we assume a different state of the world things would be different. But that isn’t what happened!

* Zimny-Schmitt and Harris are describing the characteristics of bellwether counties, rather than measuring how predictive they are. So even though bellwethers might tend to have certain characteristics, what really matters is how well they can predict future elections. We show that bellwethers tend to be *worse* at predicting elections than counties with similar election results in the previous election. On the number of losses: it actually isn’t that surprising. If you “rerun” the 2016 election results, you’d expect Biden to lose 18 or more bellwether about 20% of the time. You can see in Figure 3 that Trump didn’t just win these bellwethers in 2016, he won them by a lot. In fact, this reflects a trend where Republicans do better in many smaller population counties, while Democrats do better in fewer high population counties. The result of this is that Biden loses bellwether counties (which exist by statistical accident). Again, if you look at our Figure 3, you’ll see that there really isn’t anything necessary about flipping the bellwether counties for Biden’s win, because he tended to improve his margin in larger counties. That said, Biden did win more counties than Clinton.

* I’d be curious about the correlation between crowd size and support for a candidate. There are related factors (like yard signs) which tend to not be particularly predictive. But I’m not sure of a systematic study of crowd size and candidate performance in an election. One reason to be doubtful of the relationship is that crowds in a presidential election will still be much smaller than the number of votes needed to win. What’s more, the Biden campaign actively pursued smaller crowds because of COVID.

Comments at Andrew Gelman’s blog:

* I didn’t see where the Hoover article covered the discussions I have seen significant reductions in various places in the % of mail in ballots rejected (compared to prior and sometimes very recent elections) as invalid. From what I have read, most of the rejections have typically been for failure to sign the mail in ballot.
I personally found it very comforting that our electorate improved its ballot signing performance in such a dramatic way… if indeed this was as widespread as some have suggested. I haven’t seen this addressed elsewhere, and maybe I missed it in the Hoover piece.

Justin Grimmer: The state where this comes up is Georgia. Gabriel Sterling , a republican election official, explains this as a result of a law change in GA that gives citizens a chance to fix their signature if the election workers find a problem.

“The decrease in rejections is attributable to a recently passed law that gives Georgians a chance to correct problems, such as a rejected signature, with their ballots. Both parties had teams roaming the state and contacting voters whose ballots were at risk of rejection, but Mr. Sterling said the Democrats were simply more prepared for the task.”

One thing that went along with the increase in mail in voting were changes in laws that made it possible for people to fix ballots that would be potentially rejected. This made it possible for the parties to connect voters to potentially rejected ballots and have them corrected. So on the one hand, it does seem intuitive that an increase in mail in ballots might increase signature issues. But on the other hand, the ability to fix signatures suggests that it should decrease substantially.

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How Republicans Can Win As The Party Of The Working Class (3-7-21)

00:00 How did Twitter & Facebook become competent to decide what information is permissible?
05:30 Paul Fussell’s “Class: A Guide Through The American Status System”, https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-fussell-on-class
08:00 A Modest Proposal For Republicans: Use The Word “Class”, https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-modest-proposal-for-republicans
14:50 The media turns against Governor Andrew Cuomo
43:00 Do Liberals Care if Books Disappear?, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/06/opinion/dr-seuss-books-liberalism.html
45:00 Immigration and the New Class War, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HE9booBU48g
51:00 Can Republicans Make Populism Work Without Trump?, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/03/opinion/vandalism-with-a-purpose-and-the-future-of-the-gop.html
59:30 Google and Urban Dictionary censor ‘Blue Anon’ following widespread mockery of left-wing conspiracy theories, https://thepostmillennial.com/google-and-urban-dictionary-censor-blue-anon-following-widespread-mockery-of-liberals
1:05:00 Disconnected Dissidence and Political Entropy: Colin Liddell’s Shortpod (61), https://rumble.com/vecuyr-disconnected-dissidence-and-political-entropy-colin-liddells-shortpod-61.html
1:12:00 Colin Liddell and Millennial Woes in Glasgow discuss morality in 2016, https://rumble.com/vedp5p-colin-liddell-and-millennial-woes-in-glasgow.html
1:18:00 Who’s David Cole? https://affirmativeright.blogspot.com/2021/02/whos-who-in-dissident-right-david-cole.html
1:23:00 Denying History: Who Says the Holocaust Never Happened and Why Do They Say It?
1:37:00 Build Back Better?, https://affirmativeright.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-cyclopian-view-of-covid-apocalypse.html
1:42:00 Jim Goad on David Cole
1:59:20 Mexicans vs blacks
2:01:20 Alex Jones wishes he never met Donald Trump
2:08:50 The Myth Of Right Populism
2:13:00 How Republican Politics (And Twitter) Created Ali Alexander, The Man Behind ‘Stop The Steal’, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/republicans-twitter-ali-alexander-stop-the-steal_n_6026fb26c5b6f88289fbab57?ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067
2:16:20 Former White Supremacist Explains How He Got Out
2:18:30 Dr. Fred Luskin: ” Happier Folks Get More Done with Less Stress; So Can You”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERIiCiQyKxY

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A Modest Proposal For Republicans: Use The Word “Class”

Scott Alexander writes:

* Pivot from mindless populist rage to a thoughtful campaign to fight classism.

* Trump stood against the upper class. He might define them as: people who live in nice apartments in Manhattan or SF or DC and laugh under their breath if anybody comes from Akron or Tampa. Who eat Thai food and Ethiopian food and anything fusion, think they would gain 200 lbs if they ever stepped in a McDonalds, and won’t even speak the name Chick-Fil-A. Who usually go to Ivy League colleges, though Amherst or Berkeley is acceptable if absolutely necessary. Who conspicuously love Broadway (especially Hamilton), LGBT, education, “expertise”, mass transit, and foreign anything. They conspicuously hate NASCAR, wrestling, football, “fast food”, SUVs, FOX, guns, the South, evangelicals, and reality TV. Who would never get married before age 25 and have cutesy pins about how cats are better than children. Who get jobs in journalism, academia, government, consulting, or anything else with no time-card where you never have to use your hands. Who all have exactly the same political and aesthetic opinions on everything, and think the noblest and most important task imaginable is to gatekeep information in ways that force everyone else to share those opinions too.

* Say “Hey, we Republicans want to be the party of the working class. We are concerned about the rising power of the upper class, and we are dedicated to stamping out classism.”

* It’s the 21st century; having principles is out of style. Politics is motivated by tribal hatred. You tell your people that the other side hates them and wants to kill them; they need to fight back. The Democrats are great at this – cis white men hate you, they deny your right to exist, the cruelty is the point, resist or be destroyed. You Republicans have been caught flat-footed. You can’t openly defend cis white men; that would be transphobic racist sexist. And you can’t openly attack trans black women – that would be super transphobic racist sexist. Plus it wouldn’t work; there aren’t that many of them, and they’re not powerful enough to be scary.

Trump outmanuevered the Republican establishment by finding a front where he could go on the offensive. He de-emphasized the unfavorable terrain of race/sex/etc, and focused on class. He didn’t use the word “class”. But he captured the idea. He implicitly understood that there was some kind of difference between the average working-class voter and the sorts of people who set trends in the media, academia, government, et cetera. Whenever an upper-class institution tried to make him admit that they were the experts and he should bow to them, he spat in their faces instead. This was terrible; he spat in the faces of epidemiologists trying to tell him about an epidemic! But it sent his message loud and clear – just as South African populist Thabo Mbeki denied HIV/AIDS partly as a way of spitting in the face of the rich white countries who wanted him not to.

Consciously embracing the project of fighting classism would let future Republican politicians replicate Trump’s appeal without having to stoop to his tactics. It could tie together all the fractured constituencies of the Republican party.

It could appeal to the white working class. Everyone agreed these people were Trump’s base, but the media insisted on emphasizing the “white”, as in “WHITE!!! working class”. Your job is to get people thinking “white WORKING CLASS!!!” instead. You cannot ethically or pragmatically flatter these people’s identity as whites, but you can very easily flatter their identity as the working class.

It could appeal to blacks and Hispanics. They’re mostly working-class, so they hate the elites as much as anyone else.

* It could appeal to Republicans who are in it for the capitalism (including the rich donors). You would argue that capitalism is the system that lets people succeed regardless of class; even the most uncouth and uneducated person can strike it rich if they work hard and make good deals. The Democrats hate this; they prefer a system where powerful insiders get to play favorites, where success depends on who you know and not what you know, and where good jobs are locked behind gates of correct credentials from the right colleges.

* It could appeal to poor people who just want to get jobs. Point out how DC Democrats passed a law saying all child care workers must have college degrees, and how this is just a blatant attempt to take jobs away from working-class people in order to give them to upper-class people instead. Tell them that this is class warfare, that their side is losing, but that if you are in power they will win.

It could appeal to small-government libertarians. Argue that the Democrats and the government are a jobs program for the upper class.

* It could appeal to Asians, another up-for-grab minority demographic. Asians know they’ve done the hard work and gotten the test scores that ought to make them successful, but somehow success isn’t coming. We all know why this is – they’re being excluded by an academic establishment that believes “meritocracy” is a dirty word. Your job is to make the obvious point that Democrats have transformed college admissions from a search for talented students, into a scheme to perpetuate class advantage. If they wanted to accept talented students, they’d use some objective measure like test scores, and Asians would do great.

* So here’s my proposal for a Republican platform centered around fighting classism:

1. War On College: As it currently exists, college is a scheme for laundering and perpetuating class advantage. You need to make the case that bogus degree requirements (eg someone without a college degree can’t be a sales manager at X big company, but somebody with any degree, even Art History or Literature, can) are blatantly classist. Your stretch goal should be to ban discrimination based on college degree status.

* 2. War On Experts: Argue that you love and support legitimate experts, but that the Democrats have invented and propped up a fake concept of expertise as a way of making sure upper-class people who can game admissions to top colleges control the discourse.

* 3. War On The Upper-Class Media: This is your new term for “mainstream media”. Being against the “mainstream media” sounds kind of conspiratorial. Instead, you’re against the upper-class media, which gains its status by systematically excluding lower-class voices, and which exists mostly as a tool of the upper classes to mock and humiliate the lower class. You are not against journalism, you’re not against being well-informed, you’re against a system that exists to marginalize people like you. Tell the upper-class media that if they want your respect, they need to stop class discrimination.

67% of US families watch the Super Bowl – what percent of New York Times editors and reporters do? 20% of Americans go to religious services weekly – how many of those work for the New York Times? How come 96% of political donations from journalists go to Democrats? Your job is to take a page from the Democratic playbook and insist there is no reason any of this could be true except systemic classism, that any other explanation is offensive, and it’s the upper-class media’s moral duty to do something about this immediately. Until they do so you are absolutely justified in ignoring them and trusting less bigoted and exclusionary sources (I hear Substack is pretty good!)

Insist that working-class people have the right to communicate with each other without interference from upper-class gatekeepers. Make sure people know every single fact about @Jack and what a completely ridiculous person he is, and point out that somehow this is the guy who decides what you’re allowed to communicate with your Twitter friends. Every time tech companies censor social media, even if they’re censoring left-wing views, call their CEOs in for long and annoying Congressional hearings where you use the words “Silicon Valley elites” a lot.

* 4. War On Wokeness. But now it’s because wokeness is a made-up mystery religion that college-educated people invented so they could feel superior to you. Why are they so sure that “some of my best friends are black” doesn’t make you any less racist? Because the whole point is that the only way not to be racist is to master an inscrutable and constantly-changing collection of fashionable shibboleths and opinions which are secretly class norms. The whole point is to make sure the working-class white guy whose best friends are black and who marries a black woman and has beautiful black children feels immeasurably inferior to the college-educated white guy who knows that saying “colored people” is horrendously offensive but saying “people of color” is the only way to dismantle white supremacy. You should make it clear that this is total balderdash, you could not be less interested in it, and you will continue befriending colored people of color regardless.

If anybody asks you for your theory of racism, it should be that a lot of modern racism is a subform of classism, where people naturally assume minorities are lower class.

* You’re fighting wars on all these things anyway. But now you can fight them while using the word “class”. You can have a specific target in mind: eliminating “classism”. And since you know your enemy, you can have an actual plan for victory, instead of just shouting louder and louder about how angry you are.

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