Election 2016

Comments at Steve Sailer:

* Number of black voters among early voters down significantly.

Guess that’s the problem with the “Rainbow coalition”: can’t expect every individual group to show up at once.

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I’m Studying Torah For Trump Tonight

I’m studying Torah this evening and booking the merit to the Trump campaign. Hope it makes a difference.

Studying Tehillim aka Psalms. Lots of stuff about beating one’s enemies.

“All day long my enemies (Clinton puppets, Globalists) taunt me; those who deride me use my name for a curse” 102nd Psalm

I wish more of the rabbenim had thought to organize this. Torah Yidden 4 Trump says Chaim Amalek.

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The Election

A Jewish friend says: There is an obvious divergence in the polls, with the Los Angeles Times’ poll the outlier.  It has a different polling methodology in that the same persons have been polled since the polling started so it does reflect voters changing their minds.  Whether it is more accurate than traditional polling methods drawing a different sample to poll will be proven after the results are in.
 
Almost all the national polls show a “tightening” of the race, especially since Comey made his announcement a couple of weeks ago.  It also remains to be seen whether Comey’s memo of today makes any meaningful difference in the results.
 
Politico ran a story earlier this week based on a Morning Consult Poll that they said showed that there isn’t much difference in how persons say they will vote based on whether they are  interviewed by a human being or responding to on-line anonymous questions.  The theory was that Trump supporters may be reluctant to admit their support of Trump to a human being.  Overall Trump did narrow the gap based on the entire sample from 5 points to 3 points, and among those earning $50K a year or more from 10 points to 1 point.
 
There also is a big difference in the samples for some polls among, registered voters, likely voters and voters who have made up their mind.  Apparently Trump holds a not insignificant lead among voters who have decided who they will vote for.
 
Some sites that fervently back Trump-The Conservative Treehouse and The Gateway Pundit – think that there is a “monster vote” out there of up to 73 million persons who will cast ballots for Trump.  Since most projections are the total number of  voters will be around 120 million persons, this would, if true, deliver a blow out-mandate type of election.  
 
Virtually, all establishment pundits and pollsters have weighed in that this won’t happen.
 
The Trump supporters also say that the clear enthusiasm gap between the Trump personal appearances at rallies and those of Clinton show that Trump voters are more numerous and more committed to vote than the Clinton supporters.  It is worth recalling that this same pattern was raised by Mitt Romney supporters in 2012 because he was filling areas with fervent supporters, yet he lost the election by a margin predicted by the polls.
 
Before I get to the prediction of the election, if Trump wins the election, it will  be the death knell for traditional political consultants and even traditional grass roots activism and get out the vote operations.  It will be very damaging to those who create, buy and broadcast political advertising.  It will be very damaging to traditional media ways of covering elections.  (Much of this media damage will be self inflicted because of the obviously one sided coverage of the campaign to favor Clinton, and the rest because the Wikileaks reveals the close relationship between many of the top “reporters” and the Democrats.  I think that most persons realize that reporters and journalists have to cultivate sources and relationships, but much of what has been released in the emails goes far beyond that)  However if Clinton wins the election almost everyone who would be shook up by a Trump victory will go back to  business as usual, although there will a continuing diminution, at least as far as the press goes, in influence, since traditional print media are all losing money, and a significant minority (if not an outright majority) no longer trusts the mass media.
 
The election will come down to a few states.   What is clear is that African American participation (relative to the rest of the electorate) is down and that a higher percentage of Blacks will support Trump than have supported Republican presidential candidates in decades.  It does look like Latino participation is up, but it really must be  broken down into subgroups of Latinos- Mexicans, Central Americans, Cubans, and Puerto Ricans.
 
The Cubans are typically a strong Republican contingent  and are very important to the Republicans in Florida.  However, as a result of the economic distress in Puerto Rico, a number of Puerto Ricans, who typically support Democrats are voting in Florida.  Large numbers of Mexican and Central American immigrants now live in all parts of the country.  However, a large percentage of them outside the Southwest (California, Nevada, Arizona, New  Mexico and Texas) are illegals and should not be able to vote. 
 
It is not exactly clear how strong Clinton’s support among women is.  She certainly has the strong backing of single or unmarried women over fifty, but this may not be true for married women or younger women.  Since this is the centerpiece of her support, how these demographics break will be instrumental in calling the election. 
 
It is also not clear whether millennials (or Bernie Bros) will support Clinton.   Clinton’s campaigning is based on stirring up fear among this group of Trump presidency, but their personal loyalty to Sanders, in light of the Wikileaks comments about Sanders) and Clinton’s continuing close relationship with investment banks may either lead them to abstain for voting or even vote for Trump. 
 
In terms of watching the election, if Clinton carries Florida, she will win the election.  If Trump carries Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire and either carries or comes close in Virginia, Trump will likely win.  If Trump does not come close in Virginia, we have to wait until we see the results of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota.  If Trump carries Pennsylvania he will likely win.   If he carries Michigan and either Wisconsin or Minnesota he will likely win.
 
Pat Caddell, Jimmy Carter’s pollster, who has been very critical of the Democrats, says Trump can win if he points out how he and Clinton differ on the issues, since Trump’s positions are more popular.  Trump has not followed this advice  but rather run the 2 minute commercial, now criticized as anti semitic by Josh Marshall and Al Franken.   Scott Adams thinks the commercial is very persuasive and that Clinton cannot really  counter it.
 
My prediction is that Trump will win the election, although narrowly and not in a blow out.   This despite the superior “ground game” that Clinton has, her early voting advantage (although this has been disputed) and despite the unprecedented intervention in the election by Obama who is more popular by far than either Trump or Clinton and fears he has stirred up against Trump. 
 
Despite this prediction, it is possible that Clinton will pull it out, and it is not impossible that Trump will win the electoral vote yet lose the popular vote by a margin of a million or more opening himself up to attacks that his presidency lacks consensus and is illegitimate.
 
Assuming there is no ongoing litigation challenging some state’s results, the time between the election and inauguration will be most interesting.  I don’t think any outgoing president has attacked the other parties candidates in such harsh terms – yet Trump and Obama will have to work together for the transition.   There is the possibility that the Republican congress may enact legislation that they know they can’t get through under Trump for Obama to sign, creating even more fissures in the Republican party.
 
I do think the consequence of the demonization by each candidate of the other, will certainly lead to protests, likely lead to riots and possibly lead to insurrection by the followers of the defeated candidate.

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#TrumpTheEstablishment

Comments:

* All these years it seemed Trump was just a flamboyant real estate developer and producer of beauty pageants. But now it’s apparent he’d been paying attention to all sorts of subjects all along. This comes as something of a surprise. He actually has a coherent world view unlike most others who offer disconnected homilies about this or that small issue. What did Romney stand for? Can anybody remember?

* For the Republican side, this election has never been about Trump, but the issues that only he had the guts and patriotism to raise. It is the Democrats who wanted this election to be about Trump the man, and they got what they wanted.

* Heck, things would be looking different if just the GOPe hadn’t actively tried to sabotage him.

Meanwhile, Ari Fleischer pens a column in Jeff Bezos’ blog announcing that he will not vote for Trump.

* It was a great ad – runs directly counter to the bleating narrative of the Left and NeverTrump Right that Trump is an authoritarian. That was just straight up meat and potatoes populism.

It would be very fitting if Michigan or Pennsylvania give Trump the victory. The rust belt will rise again!

* Ironically, the four minute selectively edited video from Michael Moore’s new documentary has gone a long way to help explaining a Trumpian coherent, big picture worldview.

In other words, I’ll be voting for Trump on Tuesday because Michael Moore endorsed him and persuaded me that I should vote for a person who’s not a Romney globalist, pro-Wall Street, pro-Invade and Invite the world, etc.

* I find it pretty astonishing that people are dismissing Trump’s chances in this election.

He’s down by only 2% in the national poll average at this point.

Any number of factors can put him over the top:

Generally, in a change election, voters break toward the challenger.

Turnout for Trump’s base may be distinctly higher than expected because of their far greater enthusiasm — and turnout for Hillary distinctly lower because of far lower enthusiasm than for, say, Obama.

There may well be a Shy Trump effect, as there was in Brexit (which accounted for at minimum a 4%, and perhaps up to 7%, discrepancy between the final poll averages and the electoral outcome.)

Any one of these factors could take Trump over the top, and in a perfect storm in which all played a role, could give him a dominant win.

Of course it may be that none of these things really affect the outcome, and that he loses.

But from my point of view, the factors that are now unknowable will be the decisive ones in this election. I can see no reason to assume his chances are worse — or better — than 50-50, given that we can’t know how they will work out. A 2% difference, given all the unknowables in this highly variable and unprecedented election seems negligible to me.

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Jews & Poetry

Steve Sailer writes: World War II poet Karl Shapiro wrote this poem about his one semester at the U. of Virginia in the 1930s:

University
BY KARL SHAPIRO

To hurt the Negro and avoid the Jew
Is the curriculum. In mid-September
The entering boys, identified by hats,
Wander in a maze of mannered brick
Where boxwood and magnolia brood
And columns with imperious stance
Like rows of ante-bellum girls
Eye them, outlanders.

In whited cells, on lawns equipped for peace,
Under the arch, and lofty banister,
Equals shake hands, unequals blankly pass;
The exemplary weather whispers, “Quiet, quiet”
And visitors on tiptoe leave
For the raw North, the unfinished West,
As the young, detecting an advantage,
Practice a face.

Where, on their separate hill, the colleges,
Like manor houses of an older law,
Gaze down embankments on a land in fee,
The Deans, dry spinsters over family plate,
Ring out the English name like coin,
Humor the snob and lure the lout.
Within the precincts of this world
Poise is a club.

But on the neighboring range, misty and high,
The past is absolute: some luckless race
Dull with inbreeding and conformity
Wears out its heart, and comes barefoot and bad
For charity or jail. The scholar
Sanctions their obsolete disease;
The gentleman revolts with shame
At his ancestor.

And the true nobleman, once a democrat,
Sleeps on his private mountain. He was one
Whose thought was shapely and whose dream was broad;
This school he held his art and epitaph.
But now it takes from him his name,
Falls open like a dishonest look,
And shows us, rotted and endowed,
Its senile pleasure.

Karl Shapiro, “University” from Selected Poems (New York: Library of America, 2003).

Comments at Steve Sailer:

* He should’ve stopped after the first line – the rest was superfluous.

* I get the impression that Karl Shapiro didn’t get laid during his one semester at UVA.

In fairness, a lot of universities and colleges were like that in the old days; snooty and condescending and members of the DAR and all that. The democratizing of higher education came later, probably after WW2.

Shapiro’s poem is of a genre of outsider literature that I am tired of reading, to be honest. It sums up, in free verse, the text of a thousand blog posts by young Asians, African Americans, women, LGBT’s, etc. who are all trying to make a career for themselves by describing the ineffable pain they suffer by being different. There’s a certain navel gazing and self-pitying quality that I just can’t appreciate anymore.

I was raised — this is hardly unique — to believe that there was a Western Canon in culture, the arts, and philosophy, and if I wanted to be an educated member of society I had to be familiar with this. Some Ivy League colleges, e.g., Columbia, still promote the idea, that’s why you get minority students whining about reading the Iliad every year.

But one of the things I’ve noticed about the left in recent decades is not only do they not have that broad cultural education, they have no respect for such education, because, after all, that past was sexist, misogynist, racist, homophobic, you name it. They seem to have no conception of traditional high culture at all, but the most worrisome consequence is that they have no way of knowing that their specific attitudes as well as their grievances have been discussed before, usually by far more intelligent and insightful artists and writers.

I have no problem with outsiders. It’s not that uncommon a syndrome. And outsiders can frequently provide fresh and interesting insights. Unlike this poem.

* That is not a poem; it’s silly prose that makes little to no sense.

* I’m always amazed at how bad Jews are at Poetry. Great Novelists, screenwriters, and dramatists. But poetry seems to be a bridge too far.

I’m sure Shapiro disliked U of VA in 1939 cause of all the gang rape. You just have to read the poem more closely.

* This dude really needed a safe space.

* It seems a sub-category of the Jewish ethnic animus genre. They could just have a stamp that says “Jewish ethnic animus” or “Similar to Jewish ethnic animus” and we’d all save a lot of time.

* Some people like me went to college for the education. Others go because college is supposed to be their ladder into American’s upper class with all the money and power that implies. When these people meet a wall they can’t break through, thwarted ambition makes them rage like Karl Shapiro.

Frankly, a guy from a tightly knit in-group like Shapiro has no right to fume about another tightly knit in-group not letting him in. It also says something about a man whose greatest ambition in life is to gate-crash an in-group. He doesn’t want to accomplish something of material value in life, rather, he just wants to know the right people. It’s as if without their approval, he thinks he has no value at all. I see a person like this as being the bowing, scraping, beta male courtier always revolving with a ring of his prancing beta-ilk around a kingly WASP-type figure, and they’re ecstatic to be this guy’s servant. Sort of like Huma Abedin, actually.

* Shapiro grew up in Baltimore and, after leaving UVA, transferred to Johns Hopkins, so perhaps homesickness played a part in his sense of alienation/resentment. I don’t guess I have to add that people who go on to become poets tend to take the routine abrasions and disappointments of life VERY personally.

“Show me a poet, and I’ll show you a shit.”
–A.J. Liebling

* At least in Russian language, Jews are among the best poets: Mandelstam, Pasternak, Brodsky.

* Counter Points: Heinrich Heine, Paul Celan.

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