The Election

A Jewish friend says: There is an obvious divergence in the polls, with the Los Angeles Times’ poll the outlier.  It has a different polling methodology in that the same persons have been polled since the polling started so it does reflect voters changing their minds.  Whether it is more accurate than traditional polling methods drawing a different sample to poll will be proven after the results are in.
 
Almost all the national polls show a “tightening” of the race, especially since Comey made his announcement a couple of weeks ago.  It also remains to be seen whether Comey’s memo of today makes any meaningful difference in the results.
 
Politico ran a story earlier this week based on a Morning Consult Poll that they said showed that there isn’t much difference in how persons say they will vote based on whether they are  interviewed by a human being or responding to on-line anonymous questions.  The theory was that Trump supporters may be reluctant to admit their support of Trump to a human being.  Overall Trump did narrow the gap based on the entire sample from 5 points to 3 points, and among those earning $50K a year or more from 10 points to 1 point.
 
There also is a big difference in the samples for some polls among, registered voters, likely voters and voters who have made up their mind.  Apparently Trump holds a not insignificant lead among voters who have decided who they will vote for.
 
Some sites that fervently back Trump-The Conservative Treehouse and The Gateway Pundit – think that there is a “monster vote” out there of up to 73 million persons who will cast ballots for Trump.  Since most projections are the total number of  voters will be around 120 million persons, this would, if true, deliver a blow out-mandate type of election.  
 
Virtually, all establishment pundits and pollsters have weighed in that this won’t happen.
 
The Trump supporters also say that the clear enthusiasm gap between the Trump personal appearances at rallies and those of Clinton show that Trump voters are more numerous and more committed to vote than the Clinton supporters.  It is worth recalling that this same pattern was raised by Mitt Romney supporters in 2012 because he was filling areas with fervent supporters, yet he lost the election by a margin predicted by the polls.
 
Before I get to the prediction of the election, if Trump wins the election, it will  be the death knell for traditional political consultants and even traditional grass roots activism and get out the vote operations.  It will be very damaging to those who create, buy and broadcast political advertising.  It will be very damaging to traditional media ways of covering elections.  (Much of this media damage will be self inflicted because of the obviously one sided coverage of the campaign to favor Clinton, and the rest because the Wikileaks reveals the close relationship between many of the top “reporters” and the Democrats.  I think that most persons realize that reporters and journalists have to cultivate sources and relationships, but much of what has been released in the emails goes far beyond that)  However if Clinton wins the election almost everyone who would be shook up by a Trump victory will go back to  business as usual, although there will a continuing diminution, at least as far as the press goes, in influence, since traditional print media are all losing money, and a significant minority (if not an outright majority) no longer trusts the mass media.
 
The election will come down to a few states.   What is clear is that African American participation (relative to the rest of the electorate) is down and that a higher percentage of Blacks will support Trump than have supported Republican presidential candidates in decades.  It does look like Latino participation is up, but it really must be  broken down into subgroups of Latinos- Mexicans, Central Americans, Cubans, and Puerto Ricans.
 
The Cubans are typically a strong Republican contingent  and are very important to the Republicans in Florida.  However, as a result of the economic distress in Puerto Rico, a number of Puerto Ricans, who typically support Democrats are voting in Florida.  Large numbers of Mexican and Central American immigrants now live in all parts of the country.  However, a large percentage of them outside the Southwest (California, Nevada, Arizona, New  Mexico and Texas) are illegals and should not be able to vote. 
 
It is not exactly clear how strong Clinton’s support among women is.  She certainly has the strong backing of single or unmarried women over fifty, but this may not be true for married women or younger women.  Since this is the centerpiece of her support, how these demographics break will be instrumental in calling the election. 
 
It is also not clear whether millennials (or Bernie Bros) will support Clinton.   Clinton’s campaigning is based on stirring up fear among this group of Trump presidency, but their personal loyalty to Sanders, in light of the Wikileaks comments about Sanders) and Clinton’s continuing close relationship with investment banks may either lead them to abstain for voting or even vote for Trump. 
 
In terms of watching the election, if Clinton carries Florida, she will win the election.  If Trump carries Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire and either carries or comes close in Virginia, Trump will likely win.  If Trump does not come close in Virginia, we have to wait until we see the results of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota.  If Trump carries Pennsylvania he will likely win.   If he carries Michigan and either Wisconsin or Minnesota he will likely win.
 
Pat Caddell, Jimmy Carter’s pollster, who has been very critical of the Democrats, says Trump can win if he points out how he and Clinton differ on the issues, since Trump’s positions are more popular.  Trump has not followed this advice  but rather run the 2 minute commercial, now criticized as anti semitic by Josh Marshall and Al Franken.   Scott Adams thinks the commercial is very persuasive and that Clinton cannot really  counter it.
 
My prediction is that Trump will win the election, although narrowly and not in a blow out.   This despite the superior “ground game” that Clinton has, her early voting advantage (although this has been disputed) and despite the unprecedented intervention in the election by Obama who is more popular by far than either Trump or Clinton and fears he has stirred up against Trump. 
 
Despite this prediction, it is possible that Clinton will pull it out, and it is not impossible that Trump will win the electoral vote yet lose the popular vote by a margin of a million or more opening himself up to attacks that his presidency lacks consensus and is illegitimate.
 
Assuming there is no ongoing litigation challenging some state’s results, the time between the election and inauguration will be most interesting.  I don’t think any outgoing president has attacked the other parties candidates in such harsh terms – yet Trump and Obama will have to work together for the transition.   There is the possibility that the Republican congress may enact legislation that they know they can’t get through under Trump for Obama to sign, creating even more fissures in the Republican party.
 
I do think the consequence of the demonization by each candidate of the other, will certainly lead to protests, likely lead to riots and possibly lead to insurrection by the followers of the defeated candidate.