Scott Adams
Who he is: Creator of Dilbert, author, blogger.
When he called it: Aug. 5, 2015
What he said: “[I]f Hillary does not coast into the White House as I expect (and this is a prediction, not a preference) you will see a Donald Trump presidency.” Later called Trump a “clown genius.”
What tipped him off: “I certainly understand that Trump comes off as arrogant, obnoxious, and lots of other bad stuff,” Adams wrote on his blog. “But over time, and compared to the liars on stage with him, you might get hooked on hearing his honest opinions. That’s how the New York style works. At first you hate it because it seems so harsh. In time you start to appreciate the honesty. And when you realize the harshness is not a signal of real evil—just a style—you tend to get over it. He won’t win over all of his haters, but I predict that his New York style will grow on people more than you would expect. You could say his style is his biggest problem, but it might be self-solving with time and exposure. He is getting both.”
He elaborated on his reasoning in an interview over FaceTime this week: “I have a background as a trained hypnotist and I’ve been studying persuasion and influence in all its forms—everything from advertising and marketing to you name it—for decades. I’ve gone deeper than most people in the art of influence, and when I started watching Trump I realized early that what looked like the random behavior of a clown to people who were untrained, was almost pitch perfect persuasion.”
What he says about it now: Adams thinks Trump will win the general election in a “landslide.” “I no longer think it’ll be close, unless he gets assassinated or something,” he said. As for what it was like to be taking Trump seriously when no one else was: “If you imagine politics as a stick fight, all other stick fights have been won by a person with a stick. But here was Trump who said, ‘I read the rules and there’s nothing against bringing a flamethrower.’ So I’m watching Donald Trump walk up to a stick fight with a flamethrower in his hands that only I can see. It’s like an invisible flamethrower! And the only reason I can see it is I have the same tool box.”
Chris Cillizza
Who he is: Political reporter for the Washington Post’s the Fix
When he called it: Aug. 2–4, 2015
What he said: Cillizza was wrong about Trump before he saw the light. In June he wrote a blog post titled, “Why No One Should Take Donald Trump Seriously, in One Very Simple Chart.” It doesn’t matter what the chart was. On Aug. 4, Cillizza published a follow-up: “Boy, Was I Wrong About Donald Trump. Here’s Why.”
What tipped him off: In the August post, Cillizza noted that Trump’s favorability ratings had gone up significantly in just a few months—something he did not expect because, as he put it, “I had NEVER EVER seen a reversal in how people perceive a candidate who is as well known as Trump—much less a reversal in such a short period of time.” This made Cillizza realize that Trump was in uncharted waters.
What he says now: “My guiding belief with Trump has been that no political rules—or at least no conventional political rules—apply to him,” Cillizza said in an email.
