A Jewish friend says: Dear Luke,
Thank you for soliciting my opinion about this. There is no assurance that Trump will be nominated let alone elected, but if he is, you have my predictions in writing and we will see how good I am.
It is crucial to note that Trump, (like Obama) is at least a partial cipher when it comes to what he really believes, and many of his supporters assume he shares their hopes and fears and will govern accordingly. I think that many of them will be very disappointed, not only because he won’t be able to deliver on many promises, but because the actual policies he implements may differ widely from their expectations.
Once Trump assembles his team (Cabinet officers and especially his chief of staff and press secretary) and we seek the make up of Congress, we will have a better idea what he will try to do.
Also, we don’t know to what effect events beyond his control such as a market crash, implosion of the economy, terrorist actions and moves by in particular China and Russia will affect his decisions.
That being said I think Trump will seek to do the following:
(1) cut back on wasteful government spending. This is always the position that reformers take, including Arnold when he was governor. There are many institutional barriers to true reform and we shall see whether Trump can change the procurement process for drugs and for military hardware, two areas he has singled out in the debates.
(2) cut back on America’s foreign commitments. I think he will do this both in Europe and the Middle East, and East Asia. One thing that people forget is that the United States after WWII took on the role the British navy performed. The U.S. keeps the sea lanes open around the world. This enables shipments of very expensive loads of manufactured goods (say cars and electronics) to come from Asia with limited fear of piracy. We don’t charge for this, but that is because we don’t want any other nation to do this, either because we don’t trust them or just want the control. Trump may cut this back, or demand that the countries which avail themselves of operating under our defensive umbrella pay for it.
(3) increase infrastructure spending within the U.S. This will likely have bipartisan support and will hopefully help us rebuild our manufacturing and skilled construction sector by employing more people.
(4) speak out in favor of free speech and against political correctness when it inhibits free speech.
In large part we live in an administrative state. Some portions of that state exert enormous power over the sectors of the economy and the American people they are supposed to protect. Two of the most politicized departments are the environmental protection agency and the justice department. We will have a better idea how Trump intends to govern by whom he appoints to head those departments and if the persons he appoints are able to marginalize “true believers” and replace them with persons who share their political philosophy.
The courts will also give us a clue. Trump’s sister is a centrist and well respected Appellate Judge. I think he will probably rely on her and try to appoint persons like her. I don’t think he will go for an ideologue such as Scalia, or Thomas, so if he is elected the right wing will be very upset about it. But as other’s die off, Ruth Ginsburg for example he will also replace her with a centrist. He has the opportunity to depoliticize the court and I think he will do that through his appointments.
