Steve Sailer writes: Israelis, empowered by their pro-Israeli political class, have been thriving in recent years. Americans, on the other hand, distracted by their pro-Israeli political class, not so much …
For many years, I’ve been arguing that Americans should pay Israelis the compliment of studying what works for them and trying it for ourselves here in America. In contrast, the GOP establishment has instead attempted to outsource Americans’ natural feelings of patriotism to the small, far-off country of Israel, while elites practice profitable globalism at home.
From the Israeli broadsheet Haaretz:
Trump’s Triumphs Demolish Netanyahu’s Fortress GOP Strategy
The N.Y. tycoon is decimating the three legs of blanket Republican support for Israel: Evangelicals, Jews and interventionist hawks.Chemi Shalev Mar 03, 2016 11:59 PM
In their Super Tuesday speeches, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio tried to use an Israel hammer to bash Donald Trump. Cruz sneeringly lambasted him for saying he would remain “neutral” while Rubio trounced Trump for trying to stay “impartial”, as his audience booed accordingly. And Trump? Trump was racking up victories, amassing delegates and laughing all the way to the top of the Republican presidential field.
In this way, the New York billionaire is decimating the conventional wisdom, one of many, that in 2016, total and unconditional support for Israel is a prerequisite for any aspiring GOP candidate wishing to run for president; that such a pledge of allegiance to Israel, in general, and to Benjamin Netanyahu, in particular, is a threshold requirement for gaining the support of Evangelicals, who set the tone during primary season; …
But exactly a year after Netanyahu took this logic to its extreme and stood on the podium of Congress as Leader of the Republican opposition to President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran, the conception is falling apart. The notion that the Republican Party is a monolithic bastion of support that will withstand the test of time is evaporating. … Faced with the Trump phenomenon, Netanyahu’s Fortress GOP strategy is collapsing like a house of cards.
And it doesn’t really make that much difference whether Trump is a “phony” who is pulling the wool over the GOP’s innocent eyes, as former presidential contender Mitt Romney asserted in his astonishingly harsh speech on Thursday, or whether Trump has simply exposed the dark subterranean streams of jingoism and prejudice and resentment of Jews that were there all along.
Huh?
If Trump is the Republican candidate, never mind if he’s elected president, Israel’s place in American politics and possibly around the world will be put in question. But if Romney’s scary portrayal of Trump is even half true, that should be the least of our worries.
In the outgoing dogmatic GOP, Trump’s equivocations would have earned him a place in the all-time rogues gallery of Enemies of the Jewish People, somewhere between Obama and Father Coughlin. Today, Evangelicals shrug them off and continue to vote for Trump, as they did this week in Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia.
Every time Cruz and Rubio try to hit Trump over the head with an Israel club and nothing happens, it is Israel’s weakness that is exposed. Every time Trump wins a party primary without challenge from his supporters, another nail is driven into the coffin of the unshakeable alliance between Israel and America’s deep right.
And it’s not as if Trump is really anti-Israel; hardly. Like in most other complex policy issues on which he has spoken, Trump is mainly incoherent, improvising as he goes along, shooting from the lip, saying one thing one day and the opposite the next. He is “totally a friend” of Israel, Obama is “the most horrible president ever” for Israel, and the Iran deal is a joke. But Trump refuses to acknowledge United Jerusalem, wants to remain “neutral” so that he can broker a peace deal with the Palestinians, which is a challenge worthy of a master dealmaker like him. If he fails, he’s already made clear, Israel will be to blame.
Trump not only diverts the Republican leadership from uniform automatic support for Netanyahu, he is destroying the internal coalition that was the lynchpin of the party’s strong pro-Israel stance. Evangelical support for Trump has already sparked an internal rupture, which has some experts declaring the death of America’s Religious Right. …
If Trump becomes their candidate, the GOP will lose its most hawkish, most neoconservative and most pro-Israel secular elements as well. They [neocons] are repelled not only by his indecipherable positions on Israel but also by his harsh criticism of George Bush and the Iraq War, his undisguised adulation of dictators for Vladimir Putin to Bashar Assad, his all round belligerence and his neo-isolationist vision of making America great again within its hermetically sealed walls.
“His all round belligerence and his neo-isolationist vision” — Huh?
The third leg of the GOP’s pro-Israel array that Trump is eviscerating are the Jews. Although Sheldon Adelson’s ongoing silence has caused some people to suspect he will end up supporting Trump, other big time Jewish donors, including hedge fund billionaire Paul Singer, have placed their money on his currently losing rivals. And the Republican hope that 2016 will finally see the long awaited migration of Jews disappointed by Obama to the GOP is dashed once again. Trump hardly stands a chance of garnering 30% of the Jewish vote, as Romney did in 2012, never mind the 40% that Rubio might reasonably be expected to receive. He’s more likely to revert the GOP’s Jewish vote in the direction of the 11% that George Bush Sr. got in 1992, or the 10% that Barry Goldwater received in 1964. …
The Jews will run away from Trump because he scares them. Because his demagoguery is ominous, his willingness to slash and burn anyone standing in his way is disturbing, his tendency to incite his supporters against other ethnic groups from rapist Mexicans to terrorist Muslims, is a source of deep anxiety. Beneath the great wave of popular support for Trump one can make out with increasing clarity the dark undercurrents of rage and resentment and xenophobia that is often seen morphing into White supremacism and abhorrence of African Americans and then, on the outskirts, bad old hatred of the Jews. The allusions to Germany in the 1930’s are absurd, no doubt, but nonetheless surfacing with ever-increasing frequency.
It’s always 1933.
COMMENTS:
* Steve, this is just Ha’aretz being Ha’aretz and prosecuting their jihad against B. Netanyahu. The Israeli joe sixpack is very comfortable with Trump and views his rise with equanimity. The agony aunts at Ha’aretz are beholden to the NYT for their view of Trump as 1933 all over again.
* The guy has a Jewish son-in-law, for christsakes. Is that enough? No…no…nothing short of groveling at the feet of Isreal will suffice.
One of the few things I liked about Obama was his tendency to keep Israel at arms length–relative to the neocons, anyway.
At some point, all this racist/Hitler accusing will wear thin. When a real ill-intentioned demagogue rises, the left may find out they’ve called “wolf” one too many times.
* Another wishful thinking op-ed from the Haaretz. They publish two types of articles:
1) How Bibi has got Israel by the balls and everything is terrible.
2) How Bibi is a moron and his world is about to collapse.
This isn’t the first time they’ve published a “Trump is Netanyahu’s nightmare” piece. Weirdly, this places Haaretz’s leftists in a conflicted position, as they find themselves admitting that Trump should actually be their preferred candidate. But they’re still as revolted by him as liberals everywhere else in the West.
* My vague impression is that Sheldon Adelson prefers Rubio and his wife prefers Cruz, but Sheldon could live with Trump, his fellow casino mogul. Perhaps Trump seems like the kind of guy you could have a productive chat with about how online gambling is a bane compared to good old tangible casinos that employ real construction workers and real croupiers? (I’d probably side with Adelson on this: gambling should be something you have to go somewhere to do in person, not just a click away on your smartphone.)
My vague sense is that Adelson is less hyperactive this election cycle. The wisdom of age?
* Donald Trump’s core support is overwhelmingly white, lower middle-class men with a high school education. He draws most of the rest of his support from white middle-class men and women. The increasingly hysterical denunciations of Donald Trump demonstrate the hatred and contempt for, and yet palpable fear of, that demographic group among American elites.
* Quite, it just shows how extreme Zionism is that they find Trump’s, with all his links to Israel and the Jewish community, modest proposal to place American interests first in the Middle East so unacceptable.
* I am feeling more and more estranged from my co ethnics lately. Israel should be solidly behind Putin and Assad, and Jews here should be supporting Trump. Nothing is worse for us, or whites generally, than mass Muslim migration to the US and Europe.
I am predicting right now that Trump will quell the neocon attacks by going over the top with pro israel statements. the best nationalist right leader in Europe is Geert Wilders and he does this. Promising to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem woud be a good start. There is no downside really, it is not like Trump is going to lose Muslim support this way. I do hope he also keeps attacking Bush and the Iraq War.
* People are looking at Trump’s demeanor and the way he interacts with the other candidates in debates. Of course, yelling people down and waving your hands a lot does not mean you’re going to pull the trigger on North Korea. Even without reasoning, people’s experience with Obama should tell them that talking like a wall-flower academic doesn’t mean you’re real peaceful, but people haven’t learned that lesson, I guess.
* Trump sounds pretty reasonable to downgrade to neutral. Netanyahu has a permanent ban on Muslim immigration and officially makes Islam a second-class religion in Israel. I don’t see any logical ground for criticizing Trump’s temporary Muslim immigration ban proposal.
* Putin is actually very popular in Israel, not only among the large Russian emigre community but among average Israelis. He is by a wide margin the most popular Foreign leader in Israel. It is only the leftist elites in Israel that despise him.
* If people are brought up with a version of their history which cuts out any bad stuff their group did and just listed the bad stuff done to them by others then I think culturally induced paranoia is the likely result – as Trump has been proving quite spectacularly.
Also if no logical explanation for the bad stuff is ever looked for then some useful insights might be missed.
(Obviously some of it will be minority prejudice / bigotry etc but all?)
For example, if wages are driven down to subsistence levels the economy will collapse and then stagnate because a prosperous economy requires disposable income. (I’d say innovation is mostly driven by disposable income also.) So if people had a habit of trying to drive wage levels to subsistence (whether thru immigration or slavery) and it always led to collapse and backlash they might decide it would be better to stop doing it.
Similarly unrestricted money-lending has the same effect as even if people nominally have disposable income if an ever increasing percentage of it goes on loan repayments for previous consumption then it’s the same as having none.
* I think they dread the diminution of their stature and influence in a Trump administration; A sort of Public Choice theory of neo-con public intellectuals if you will. Ironically , they probably wouldn’t have been marginalized to much extent had they not pursued their scorched earth campaign in the first place. Additionally I suspect (more in the case of Kristol than Boot) that they find Trump vulgar, and falling far short of what they perceive as the standard of presidential dignity. To be honest so do I, but A) I think the ship of presidential dignity sailed with the election of Bill Clinton a quarter of a century ago. and B) All other considerations must take a back seat to the immigration issue which is in the words of Ecclesiastes 1-15 “מעוות לא יוכל לתקן”
* Goldwater had a Jewish father who converted to the religion of his wife. So Goldwater was at least half Jewish by ethnicity even though he was a Christian.
Question: Which contributed more to Goldwater’s low take among Jewish voters, his religion or political ideology?
* For Jews, identifying the majority’s interests as their own would be tantamount to abandoning their jewishness.
* >the unshakeable alliance between Israel and America’s deep right
Boy are they in for a surprise when they finally figure out who Americas new “deep right wing” is, and what we think about them.
* Trump is actually relatively popular amongst Israeli Jews – which is a population enamoured with populism. Israel has fewer Ashkenazi leftists than, say, New York City. And, like in the US, these Jews find themselves disproportionately in elite positions (like writing for Ha’aretz – which no one buys). But don’t get things confused, Israel’s demographic power lies in Right-Wing, traditional communities that dominate most towns not named Tel Aviv.
Trump, to allay Israeli fears, can make a few derogatory comments about Palestinians and will find himself loved by the masses. As an Israeli Right-winger, I find it a bit embarrassing how easily one can get a “Death to Arabs” chant going in any crowd of Rightists. In any case, if Trump can use some of Netanyahu’s (own!) tactics to build support in Israel, then he’ll rise in popularity. If his campaign can say, “57% of Israelis back Trump”, and use Israeli xenophobia and illiberal attitudes against Zionist-establishment types in the US, well, that’s a winning strategy.
* Hmm, a Jew thinks that a presidential candidate should encourage Israel do whatever it wants while America pays the price. That’s novel.
Under what circumstances and to which candidate would you not offer that advice?
When does Israel have enough? When has America given enough for Israel? When can our political contests be about our needs, not yours? Can you even imagine any downsides for us Americans to be your tool, or do you believe it only does us good?
* This could all be shtick.
Obama has been very good for Jews. Even his Iran Deal was hatched by J-Street Jews.
But we are told Obama threw Israel under the bus. Zzzzzzzzzzzz.
And now, Trump is bad for Israel. Zzzzzzzzzzzzz.
Jews say one thing but feel another.
I think Jews are mainly afraid of people realizing that Jews/Israel owns the US.
I mean George W. Bush and McCain were excessively servile to Israel, and this made Jews nervous.
Better to create the impression that US politicians are NOT controlled by Jews/Israel.
Now, there may be some sincere anxieties among Israelis… but they surely know Trump isn’t anti-Israel or anti-Jewish.
Trump’s fortune is built on Jewish ties. So, there is no need for Jews to fear Trump.
I think what is really worthy worrying about is what Trump may have unleashed in the long term. Will this grass-roots nationalism stop with Trump or go beyond that?
It’s the ‘beyond’ part that is worrying to Jews.
* This is not a problem but a conflict, and in the words of Conor Cruise O’Brien, conflicts do not have solutions, they have outcomes. Hillary Clinton and along with neocons and interventionists, wants to freeze the Middle East situation by preventing or suppressing revolution in Israel’s neighbours. But this would condemn the Jewishness of Israel to inevitable ellipse, for the reasons that Mearsheimer has pointed out.
Trump is not committed to unending war in the Middle East with the objective of keeping the current Arab family dictatorships in power irrespective of the popular will in those countries, the Israel Lobby seem to be; it would lead, sooner or later to certain doom for Israel by freezing the current long-term-untenable situation. For the Jewish state to have a future, Jews will have to leave the West Bank or the Arabs will. The conventional “solution”- minded US establishment of neocons, liberal and interventionists would not stand for the necessary transfers of Arabs; do they not understand what the alternative is?
* The Republicans have been hoping to pry the Jews away from the Democrats for the last 30+ years; with absolutely no hope of ever making it happen. Jews control, fund, are the mouthpieces, and set the agenda for the Dems. And they don’t have to share the power with anyone else, if they don’t want to.
What can the Repubs offer? Jews can share power with the Evangelicals that only care about Armageddon; where only the Evangelicals go to heaven (already got their seat assignment to heaven on Jesus 1) and everybody else (jews included) dies and goes to hell for eternity. Jews seem to have ‘issues’ with Evangelicals about this; that jews assuming room temperature is part and parcel of Evangel interest.
Or share power with white gentile men, the ones that have spent the last 2000 years wailing on the Jews when they got tired of Jews not playing by the rules ( tested by college psychology types as the one type of misbehavior that the vast majority of people won’t/can’t let slide).
Or the Nationalists that observe what Israel is doing about immigration ( build walls), deport undesirables from Israel instead of giving them same rights as a citizen. Don’t allow a small minority with dual loyalties to control media and by extension the country.
Yeah, that’s something the Hebrews are having a real difficult time resisting….
