* While we often hear that McConnell is tactically brilliant, as Republicans we never seem to see much evidence (unless he’s directing his tactics against Republican voters themselves, which often seems to be the case).
His almost immediate decision to block any Obama nominee is one piece of evidence in his favor, though. There is absolutely nothing to be gained from rubber stamping an Obama nominee, or even twisting his arm in getting him to nominate an (allegedly) more moderate justice than he would otherwise. Democrats have two chances to lose in November – either the White House or in their bid to recapture the Senate. If they lose either (or both) then Republicans still have leverage over the choice of justices.
If the Senate held confirmation hearings, then Republicans from coast to coast would get to see Orrin Hatch and Lindsey Graham in all their asshole glory defending the right of Obama to nominate whomever the hell he chooses.
Blocking an Obama nominee keeps Republicans united around victory in the Senate and White House, even if the GOP nominates a mush (Bush, Rubio) that conservatives don’t like or a conservative that neofeudalist RINOs don’t like. It will protect any endangered Senate incumbent from a primary challenge, unless he or she lives in a state that would elect a Republican anyway (I still expect the RINOs to challenge Mike Lee in Utah).
If the Senate approves a nominee – especially before the deadlines for filing to run have passed – then there will be hell to pay. With his last dying gasp, the great Antonin Scalia may have given the last full measure of devotion to keeping the GOP united this fall.
* I’d add that another brilliant aspect of McConnell’s very rapid announcement that the Senate wouldn’t be considering an Obama nominee is that it allows Republicans to get ahead of the identity politics line of attack that Obama will inevitably attempt. If he waited until after Obama nominated someone then Republicans could more reasonably be accused of not voting for Obama’s nominee because he/she is gay, lesbian, Hispanic, Chinese, Indian, or whatever. Now it’s out there. If McConnell, for some inconceivable reason, needs to backtrack he can do so safely.
