* Don’t forget two important things about the point spread:
1) It’s not a prediction! Bookies don’t really care which team wins or by how much.
2) Ultimately, the wise guys in Vegas don’t set the point spread- bettors do.
A point spread that corresponds closely to the real final score of a game can be disastrous for bookies, and a point spread that’s absurdly off as a prediction can still make bookies tons of money.
The only purpose of a point spread is to ensure that a roughly equal amount of money is best on both teams. As long as that happens, the bookies are happy. If there’s just as much money bet on the Pats and the Broncos at kickoff time, then the odds makers were right to make the Pats a 3 point favorite, even if the Broncos end up winning 49-0.
By contrast, if the great majority of bettors take the Pats, and the Pats win 30-28, that point spread will be a disaster for bookies, even though it was a pretty accurate prediction of the final score.
* Brady’s QB rating this year is way up there, despite the fact that he lost Edelmann and Gronk around week 11 or whatever it was, and only got them back for last week’s game. His numbers have rarely looked better.
The Pats can definitely knock off the Broncos (Brady lacked Edelmann and lost Gronk vs. Broncos and still almost won that game). The real question is would they have it easier vs. the Cardinals or the Panthers? Panthers secondary looks pretty weak, but they look strong otherwise. But so do the Cards. I do wonder about Newton. His rating hovered in the mid eighties until this season, when it shot way up to like 99. Is he really that much better? How much did he benefit from having one of the easiest schedules in the NFL? He had the 2nd best O-Line in the NFL this year (best of the teams remaining) – and one of the best receiving tight ends, despite all the talk about “having no one around him” – which surely didn’t hurt. On the other hand, they sent the Seahawks packing last game, so we’ll see.
As for the Cards, they’re a good team. If they don’t blitz Newton too much today (they love to blitz but it has had zero statistical effect on Newton this year), and Palmer doesn’t choke, they have a good chance at a win. They look about as formidable as the Panthers, so really I guess it’s a toss-up from a Patriots POV. I think it’ll all be about how the ball bounces, like it was in the Panthers-Seahawks game (giving up a pick six is no way to start a playoff road game).
Funny thing is, I’ve been reading these “OMG Denver curse for Brady” pieces all week. Newton’s past performance, psych profile, etc? Nobody’s ever heard of it. Makes me wonder if the Panthers aren’t more vulnerable than the press is admitting. Makes sense, I guess; talking up the black guy is all up side and no down side, the reverse is the reverse.
* The media’s amusing, with their selective eye for stats.
How many “mobile” or “dual-threat” QBs have won super bowls, vs. pocket passers? Dead issue, as far as the media is concerned. I guess nobody wants to be responsible for the “stereotype threat” that ended Newton’s Run.
* Brady has not appeared less ageless as the season has gone on. He has appeared more weaponless, as basically his entire receiving core has been injured over the second half of the season. They are back now, however, and you could immediately see the difference during the KC game last week. Go Pats!
* An interesting question is to what extent Brady’s success is attributable to playing for the best coach and the best organization in football. My guess would be that at least 50% of it is.
