Israel is once again a light unto Western nations who want to thrive rather than be overrun by migrants.
According to Ettinger, from 1995 to 2013, the annual number of Israeli Jewish births surged by 65 percent – from 80,400 to 132,000. In 2013, the Jewish fertility rate was 3.04 births per woman – and trending upwards. It’s 3.04 births when both spouses are Israeli-born, no matter where their parents were born.
“Trending upwards” is the operational term here. There are many factors, including population age, which are important in predicting future population growth or shrinkage. But, taking all these factors into consideration, the Jewish population is growing fast, and will grow even faster.
That’s counterintuitive, if you’ve read all the literature about “sub-replacement levels” of society. Family size has been traditionally linked to the number of children it takes to run a farm or support an elderly parent. But as women become more educated, move to cities and have other economic resources, they have fewer babies. At least that’s the theory.
A CBS report earlier this year, citing UN estimates, shows there’s been a drop in family size among Muslims throughout the region. The most fertile Arab nation, Jordan, has a projected 2035 fertility rate of 2.41 children. Israeli Muslims are projected to decline from 3.37 to 2.71. This is consistent with the greater education and urbanization.
But it doesn’t hold for Israeli Jews.
Says Ettinger, “Israel’s Jewish fertility rate is currently higher than any Arab country, other than Yemen, Iraq and Jordan, which are rapidly declining. The Jewish population is also growing relatively younger, which bodes well for Israel’s economy and national security.”
The swell in Jewish population, in contrast to the downward trend among the region’s Muslims, has major implications for the geopolitics of our area, of course. But this is not the subject of this discourse.
I’m wondering why we have this surprising increase in population. It’s not from immigration.
Innately Jewish? Unhappily, this fertility pattern isn’t true for our American sisters. According to the most widely quoted survey, the National Jewish Population Survey 2001-2002, the average number of children born to Jewish women was less than 1.9. The so-called “effective Jewish birthrate” is below 1.9 children per Jewish woman.
