* My thoughts on the Frum piece, as they occurred:
– tribalism (fissures) within the parties mirror the more lurid colour-coding of America race-wise, under Obama, doesn’t it?
– immigration… as now constituted looks a lot like slavery; elites in favour (bonded, cheap labour). But palpable terrorist threat throws this ‘history repeats’ model into the air, doesn’t it? In capturing fears of poor whites (slaves’ first victims) and in appearing to be the only strong man in the room/race over Islamic imports, Trump scores twice, doesn’t he? (Did Frum pen this before San Bernardino?)
– Frum’s last option is a chimera: once GOP tacks to centre, the centre will move…further to the left. GOP has been consistently and successfully tarred as the heartless party; moving Democrat-wards will only see more ransom being extracted from them.
– bad timing: desperation on this scale may be a reverse indicator. Just when GOP and Dems converge (former capitulates) on idea of govt doing more/very little less, well, along comes $18trillion of public debt to effectively neuter activist government! That stark reality was veiled by zero rates for Obama’s reign; but the truth (the costs, and the eternal fact of scarcity of resources) will become plain as rates rise. Arguably GOP just has to stay ‘on message’ – government the problem not the solution – and the election success will follow. Of course, they have to find a way to spin this better. (Why don’t they talk more about ‘the children’, who’ll face the ‘centrist’ bill, in the ‘fairness’ debate? ‘Atlas Shrugged’ is still the best selling ‘business’ book of all time – someone on the GOP should discuss.)
– Trump: aside from two boosts above (related to immigration), isn’t The Donald just another example of the lust for a strong man after a failed recovery from a catastrophic depression? There are bloodier examples on this (European) side of the pond. And the most egregious was ‘Trump-like’ in his ‘whatever it takes’ attitude to ‘solutions’; high theory got you into a concentration camp as often as not.
– “Americans love the crush of competition, the hard-fought struggle, the long-slogging race”; I think the legacy of the Obama putsch is: ‘not so much’. He has moved America Europe-wards. How is that for Democrats’ respect of ‘the centre’?!
I think events will shape the election. As a businessman – at least surrounded by more clever people willing to question whether the Emperor has any clothes – Trump looks ahead more naturally; my money would be on events (another San Bernardino; another Hillary scandal; economic downturn) coming to him. I mistrust the polls that have him 5+ points behind Hillary. The arguably equally ‘outside’ (the political spectrum anyway) Goldwater was blitzed in 64 by a Kennedy sympathy vote and because events were on Johnson’s side (Vietnam not yet a running sore; economy still on sugar rush of ‘benign’ state expansion). Trump faces no similar headwinds. If he can keep his comb-over in place in cross-winds, he has a chance.
* It’s odd how intensely the media hypes the Hispanic vote when their turnout rate is less than half. Small shifts in either the black or white vote can reshuffle the electoral map yet you wouldn’t know that by listening to the news.
The way the media sounds sometimes it’s as if non-Hispanic voters shouldn’t even bother going to the polls.
