John J. Mearsheimer writes in 2010: The United States has been the most powerful state on the planet for many decades, and has
deployed robust military forces in the Asia-Pacific region since the early years of the second world war. The American presence has had significant consequences for Australia and for the wider region. This is how the Australian government sees it, at least according to the 2009 Defence White Paper: ‘Australia has been a very secure country for many decades, in large measure because the wider Asia-Pacific region has enjoyed an unprecedented era of peace and stability underwritten by US strategic primacy.’ The US, in other words, has acted as a pacifier in this part of the world.
However, according to the very next sentence in the White Paper, ‘That order is being transformed as economic changes start to bring about changes in the distribution of strategic power.’ The argument here, of course, is that the rise of China is having a significant effect on the global balance of power. In particular, the power gap between China and the United States is shrinking and in all likelihood ‘US strategic primacy’ in this region will be no more. This is not to say that the US will disappear; in fact, its presence is likely to grow in response to China’s rise. But the US will no longer be the preponderant power in the Asia-Pacific region, as it has been since 1945.
The most important question that flows from this discussion is whether China can rise peacefully. It is clear from the Defence White Paper — which is tasked with assessing Australia’s strategic situation out to the year 2030 — that policymakers in Canberra are worried about the changing balance of power in Asia. Consider these comments from that document: ‘As other powers rise, and the primacy of the United States is increasingly tested, power relations
will inevitably change. When this happens there will be the possibility of miscalculation. There is a small but still concerning possibility of growing confrontation between some of these powers.’ At another point in the White Paper, we read that, ‘Risk resulting from escalating strategic competition could emerge quite unpredictably, and is a factor to be considered in our defence planning.’ In short, the Australian government seems to sense that the shifting balance of power between China and the US may not be good for peace in the neighbourhood.
Now, Australians should be worried about China’s rise, because it is likely to lead to intense security competition between China and the US, with considerable potential for war. Moreover, most of China’s neighbours, to include India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Russia, Vietnam, and, yes, Australia, will join with the US to contain China’s power. To put it bluntly: China cannot rise peacefully.
