Breaking Down The GOP Field

Joe emails: This is how it breaks down. The GOP right now is a pissed off party that somehow it let Obama become President. There is no establishment to cool it off. Of the field, the following can get the nomination (in some order of likelihood) and reasons why that person can’t:

Perry (he can’t win Iowa, he can’t win New Hampshire, and he will not make it to the more liberal states such as NY, or CA unless he clobbers Romney and others in the South and beats expectations in Iowa or New Hampshire);

Christie (would immediately be seen as the heir apparent to the generic GOP candidate that would trounce Obama, can win any primary);

Romney (he can’t win Iowa, he will win New Hampshire, and he will lose all the Southern and Mountain states);

Palin (assuming she got in, she is the white female version of Cain – except that she cannot win New Hampshire – she would do great in Iowa, the South and the Mountain states, but I do not think she is running).

Cain (yes, he is the third in line now – the beauty is that there is no primary that he cannot win, perhaps save Texas or a homestate of one of the other candidates – he is in tune with the anger of the GOP, the problem of course is that he is written off as a joke – but I say that he has winning chances);

Bachmann (she has no chance outside of Iowa – she is the 2008 Huckabee and);

Santorum (he is in some ways the generic GOP candidate, but he is not a winner and he comes across as too shrill, but if he comes in second in any of Iowa, NH, or other early states, he may be seen as a hopeful);

The rest have no chance:

Huntsman (will never win a primary based on working for Obama as ambassador)

Johnson (will never win a primary because he comes across as being stoned)

Gingrich (will never win a primary because he has no appeal to anyone that can tell the guy is a fool)

Ron Paul (the GOP will declare him mentally unfit before it allows him to win a primary)

About Luke Ford

I've written five books (see My work has been covered in the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, and on 60 Minutes. I teach Alexander Technique in Beverly Hills (
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