My friend emails:
The Democratic party base is about what is next, not what is now. Contrast that with the Republicans who are about what is the past, not what is now. What is now is probably John Edwards and Rudy Giuliani – bona fide intelligent qualified candidates who can lead and convince people to go their way. They have led, Rudy in New York and John leading juries by the short hairs to grant him $25 million verdicts. Both are finished. The Republican party wants to look back – they want the safety of a McCain or the kind of predictability of an empty suit like Romney. As for the dems it is much more complex – clearly each of Hillary and Obama is what is next. On the one hand a woman president who represents the apotheosis of the liberal baby boomers. On the other hand, a black man right out of central casting who, if he is not shot before taking office, could probably make the peace between right and left, black and white and Britney and K-fed.
For the democratic base, namely, gays, blacks, feminists, unions, and teachers, it is a real challenging choice. Hillary is blessed and plagued by Bill. Money, apparently, can’t buy or rent the nomination. Obama is hobbled by his true lack of experience and his race – there is no question that he has no credentials to be president – and if you are an intellectually honest liberal, the moral of george W. bush is that experience matters. The other thing is that while liberals are willing to allow unqualified blacks in the door through affirmative action, governing is a whole separate matter. Tom Bradley could not get elected governor in California against a soporific Armenian, and Obama should not be permitted to be president, even against the post-menopausal and narcissistic Hillary.
Ultimately, the Hillary/Obama clash threatens the party’s chances in 2008. The party least divided tends to win and it is clear that the republicans are intent on uniting on someone, anyone, and GWB will open his fundraising prowess to get that person the $$$ to compete. Dems have to hope that super Tuesday is decisive, and my guess is that Hillary will pull NY and CA and then the white vote will flock to her.
