Grok says:
Evaluating Amy Wax’s chances of winning her lawsuit against the University of Pennsylvania (Penn) is a bit like handicapping a horse race with half the track still under fog. It’s March 15, 2025, and Wax, a tenured law professor, filed her federal lawsuit in January 2025, claiming racial discrimination and breach of contract after Penn suspended her for a year at half pay, stripped her named chair, and issued a public reprimand. This followed a years-long saga over her controversial statements on race, immigration, and academic performance, deemed “flagrant unprofessional conduct” by a faculty board in 2024. Let’s weigh the odds based on what’s in play.
The Case Basics
Wax argues Penn’s speech policies discriminate by race—punishing her, a white Jewish woman, for remarks about Black students while allegedly letting minority faculty slide on antisemitic or violent rhetoric (e.g., Dwayne Booth’s “blood libel” cartoon or Julia Alekseyeva’s posts praising a CEO’s killer). She’s suing in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, citing violations of Titles VI and VII of the Civil Rights Act (racial discrimination), the First Amendment (via Penn’s public funding ties), and her tenure contract’s academic freedom guarantees. Penn says her conduct undermined equal learning opportunities, justifying sanctions under their rules.
Tailwinds for Wax
Legal Ground: The First Amendment leans her way if she can tie Penn’s actions to public funding (Title VI) or employment bias (Title VII). Private universities aren’t pure First Amendment zones, but Penn’s handbook promises “open expression,” and courts have slapped down schools for uneven speech policies—think Cohen v. San Bernardino Valley College (1996), where a professor’s punishment for edgy speech got reversed. If she proves a double standard, she’s got a puncher’s chance.Academic Freedom: The Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Act doesn’t apply (it’s UK law), but U.S. tenure traditions and Penn’s own policies enshrine broad expression rights. Her suit calls the “major infraction” process—meant for crimes like assault—a sham for speech disputes. If the court buys that, her odds tick up.
Evidence of Bias: She’s got comparables—Booth and Alekseyeva faced no formal discipline despite uproar. If discovery unearths more cases of Penn winking at non-white faculty’s provocations, her discrimination claim strengthens. X posts hype this angle: “Penn’s DEI shield is crumbling.”
Headwinds Against Her
Private Power: Penn’s a private entity—courts give them wide latitude to enforce conduct codes. If her tenure contract ties professionalism to DEI (likely), they can argue she crossed a line. Cases like Feldman v. Ho (7th Cir., 1999) let schools discipline tenured profs for disruptive behavior, even speech-related.Conduct, Not Just Speech: Penn’s not just mad about her blog posts—they cite classroom bias and grade confidentiality breaches (e.g., her 2017 claim Black students rarely hit Penn Law’s top half). If they prove she targeted students, it’s less a free speech case and more a workplace violation. That’s tougher to overturn.
Cultural Tide: DEI’s a juggernaut in academia. Judges aren’t immune to optics—ruling for Wax could spark headlines about “protecting racism.” X critics say, “She’s cooked; courts won’t touch this.” Public pressure might nudge a cautious bench against her.
The Numbers Game
No identical case exists, but employment discrimination suits against universities offer a benchmark. Federal civil rights claims (Title VI/VII) win at trial about 20-30% of the time (DOJ stats, 2023), though most settle. Academic freedom cases are rarer—think Urofsky v. Gilmore (4th Cir., 2000), where profs lost a speech fight—but Wax’s tenure and Penn’s promises tilt her slightly above average. Let’s ballpark it:
Base Chance: 30-40%. She’s got law and precedent, but private rules and her record muddy it.With Strong Evidence: 50-60% if discovery shows blatant racial double standards.
If It’s All Optics: 10-20% if Penn frames it as student harm and the court balks at controversy.
Wild Cards
Trump Era: Trump’s back in office—his DOJ might lean pro-free speech, though federal courts are slow and this is early days. X buzz says, “Trump’ll save her,” but that’s a stretch for 2025.Judge Roulette: Eastern District’s got a mix—some conservative, some not. A First Amendment hawk boosts her; a DEI sympathizer sinks her.
Settlement: Penn might cut a deal—reinstate her quietly—to dodge a precedent. Happens in 60%+ of these suits.
Gut Call
I’d peg her at 35-45% to win outright—decent but not favored. She’s got a real case, but Penn’s got institutional heft and a narrative (student protection) that’s hard to crack. If she ties Trump’s charisma chaos to her fight—rallying a movement—pressure might shift, but courts aren’t rallies. What’s your read—think she’s got the edge or just swinging?
