A friend says: Trump does not need the Courts to declare anything. He merely needs enough legal disputes, to run the clock into December. The Constitution says in case of election disputes that bar automatic determination of Electors, the State Legislatures will determine the respective State Electors. The State Legislatures of AZ, PA, MI are all GOP, they can name Electors.
— Extortion17 ⚓️ (@NoSurrender200) November 5, 2020
I am making these tweets to explain in one place some analysis that was done last night.
1 – I was asked offline about doing Benford's on election data. I explained that this is common and a useful way to detect anomalies in data that are driven by artificial process (e.g. fraud)
— Statsguyphd (@statsguyphd) November 5, 2020
Think about your own areas of expertise. Does everything get done by the book or do things often get done by a wink and a nod? Laws matter, but all laws are enforced by people. You want the people in power on your side no matter the law.
Maybe the Supreme Court will step in, as it did in Bush v. Gore, and award the presidency to Trump or Biden before December 8. But we shouldn’t count on it. And, if not, there’s a process for what comes next.
Just six days after the safe harbor date, on December 14, the members of the Electoral College meet in their respective states. But there could be disputes about who those electors are. Imagine if in Michigan, for example, Trump is ahead in ballots received by Election Day, but that counting ballots that arrive after Election Day would give Biden the win. The Michigan Secretary of State, a Democrat, might certify a Biden win, naming a Biden slate of electors. The Republican legislature might purport to overrule that certification and name a Trump slate of electors, even though, under state law, it has no authority to do this.
This scenario with competing slates of electors has happened before, on a large scale in 1876, in the race for president between Rutherford B. Hayes and Samuel Tilden, where Republicans and Democrats in key states submitted competing slates of electors. In 1960, Hawaii submitted two sets of electors, and members of the Florida legislature contemplated submitting a competing slate of electors in the 2000 election. Even if competing slates of electors aren’t submitted, there may still be disputes about whether the single slate of electors submitted by a state is valid, likely because of allegations of fraud or other irregularities…
What if, because there is a tie or because Congress decides to not recognize any slate of electors from some states, neither candidate gets a majority of electoral votes? Then, under the 12th Amendment, the House decides the president and the Senate decides the vice president. The House vote is taken by state, so each state has one vote. Right now, even though Democrats have a majority in the House, Republicans control a majority of state delegations. If the composition of the House stays the same, and if members all vote along party lines, the House would almost assuredly elect Trump as president. If the Senate composition stays the same, a party line vote would mean Mike Pence as vice president; if Democrats take control, it would be Kamala Harris.