The most significant election news I saw on the morning of November 8 was that black turnout was low.
* The downside of relentless racial identity conditioning of Blacks cost Hillary the election. Trump pulled in a lot less votes than Obama did in his wins, but despite the massive GOTV ground game and campaigning by Obama, too many Blacks didn’t bother to turn out and vote for her. Bigger urban turnout in states like Michigan, Florida, Missouri, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania might have tipped the results to her, but many Blacks just can’t be bothered to particularly care about anyone outside their own tribe. We’ll see what happens in 2020 when the White percentage of the population has shrunk further, and perhaps someone like Cory Booker is somewhere on the ticket.
* He got different whites. He didn’t get turnout from the establishment types. In Wisconsin reliable establishment counties (WOW counties) were down 10+%. Trump made up for it with rural working class types.
He had similar problems in Ohio , FL, Texas, and AZ thanks to the Kasich, Rubio, Bush, and McCain machines, respectively.
In places where he got both establishment and trump independents, like Indiana, he was up several percent and had some extra turnout from Romney’s numbers.
#nevertrump had an effect. Luckily, it wasn’t a deciding effect.
* Steve, Perhaps in a few weeks, when the final official vote totals are posted, you could give us your take on how many votes the NeverTrump & GOPe crew cost DJT. A quick look on politico suggests that they probably cost him about 2% of the overall vote, and several states (NH, ME, MN, NV & CO). This assumes that about 2/3rds NeverTrump votes went to Johnson & McMuffin tickets; the other 1/3rd to HRC. Most importantly NeverTrump & their media allies may have helped HRC to edge DJT in the overall vote % by 0.2%. Am guessing that most of that difference could be accounted for by her huge pluralities in CA, WA, NY & IL. Alas, the big reveal a few days ago on Cavuto’s show that Obama was equivocating about, or even approving of illegal aliens voting begs a much bigger question: how many illegal aliens &/or non-citizens illegally cast ballots? Since estimates of the illegal population range as high as 60M, if you add in another 20M here legally, it would not be not crazy to say that somewhere in the range of 0.05 to 2.0% of a noncitizen population of 30 to 80M would be a possibility (15,000 to 1,600,000). With voter ID laws being blocked in big states and citizenship status rarely verified, it would seem easy enough to cast dirty ballots. There has got to be a way to tease decent estimates out of the raw polling data.
* …concerning northern states, I crossed the border this morning and the Canadian Border Patrol had extra checkpoints with squads of armed agents leading up to the usual border crossing. Seems they’re worried about some of the people who are fleeing due to election results. I’ve never seen this before, and they weren’t messing around.
* Gordon Lightfoot was the very first thing I thought of when I saw the map. His music always makes me think of Trump’s forgotten Americans.
