* Trump seems to have gone all in on the Sailer strategy. And despite everything, he is still in this. Even if he loses, as long as it isn’t a landslide, I think it vindicates the theory. Someone who never talked about grabbing pussy on tape will run with it, and we will call that person president.
* The Sailer hypothesis ignores the obvious point John Deryshire makes often: sociologically and culturally speaking, there are no whites, there are goodwhites and badwhites. Everything you can do to max out the badwhite vote drives down your share of the goodwhite vote (some moderate goodwhites vote R over taxes and what not).
This whole election has also totally disproved another Sailer hypothesis, that the electoral map can be shaken up by changing the GOP’s policies. Reality: Trump will win the exact same states as McCain and Romney +/- 3.
What you are left with is “Sailerism by Default”, relying on the badwhite vote whilst making futile attempts to reach out to goodwhites and nonwhites, which is what, in one form of another, every GOP candidate, including Trump, has been doing for 20 years.
* Trump has grokked this distinction. He is maxing out badwhite turnout with his downscale MAGA message while stanching the loss of goodwhites by hammering on Hillary’s unique history of brazen public corruption. It just might work.
* Trump is running a different campaign where he defies the establishment ideas like amnesty which are deeply unpopular across both goodwhites and badwhites, as well as blacks, and even many of the Hispanics who’ve been here legally.
Have you ever seen any other Republican presidential candidate have a black homeless woman stumping for him who gets kicked around by angry Hispanics?
