* The two “black swan” events that can still sink Hillary are:
– Wikileaks release of her “deleted” private server emails.
– Major health problem revelation.
Otherwise, Trump has a long, uphill slog even if there are multiple terrorist attacks (Moslem and/or Negro.)
Not saying he can’t win, but right now he’s a 5-1 long shot. At best. What he needs is a very, very motivated following versus a very, very unmotivated bunch of Hillary supporters. Think Brexit. Young, pro-stay voters turned out 30%. Older, pro-leave voters turned out 80%.
In a way, the popular wisdom that Trump can’t win might be his best asset.
* There’s no real evidence that these things have helped Trump. If none of them had happened, do you suppose he’d be down 20 points or something in the polls right now?
* Trump is probably underpolling by 3-5% which seems to be the current range that right of center candidates or issues underpoll. This seems to be the current range. For example, Brexit. The last polls showed a close Remain win, only for reality to reflect a clear Leave mandate. In the UK they refer to it as the “Shy Tory” syndrome. Right of center, conservative voters/thinkers tend not to shout out their views to the world. The Left devotes considerable effort to making non-liberal views socially unacceptable. That’s Sarah Silverman’s entire department in the Democratic Party.
Trump is an extreme case. We are told daily from literally every media source that Trump is unacceptable. Few people who intend to vote for Trump are going to advertise this fact. So the polls probably understate his true position. But if he trails Hilary by more than 3 percentage points in November, he’s probably toast. Plus Obama’s get-out-the-vote machine destroyed Romney’s and Hilary will inherit that, so Trump has issues beyond bad poll numbers.
* Good thing no one watches The Simpsons anymore, eh? My family watched The Simpsons religiously for its first 12 years. In the last two or three of those years, we noticed that maybe one out of four programs was actually funny, and the proportion kept declining. Hearing occasionally that The Simpsons is still on TV gives me a mild surprise, like noticing that MAD magazine or Playboy are still being published.
* Obama’s get-out-the-vote machine destroyed Romney’s
Maybe so, but the main problem with getting out the vote for Romney was that by the time Election Day had arrived he had long since destroyed any energy around his campaign, first by dropping the immigration issue and then by his wimpy performance in the second and third debates.
* It’s different this time. Trump has smoked out the globalists and Lefties like crazy and shown the MSM to be totally corrupt and dishonest. Not to mention censoring issues on the economy, employment, trade and immigration.
Also the pain threshold among the blue collars and middle-class is pretty much off the charts now because of globalization and immigration.
It can’t be whitewashed by a bunch of Ivy Leaguers anymore. The shitstorm we’re facing is right out in front of us.
