Category Archives: Iran

LAT: Trump’s war rhetoric is coarse. It’s also heard differently, depending on the audience

The Los Angeles Times piece reads Trump’s Iran rhetoric through a framework built on traditional presidential norms. That framework assumes wartime rhetoric must do three things: justify the war on moral grounds, show some respect for casualties and the enemy, … Continue reading

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Decoding Bibi Netanyahu Advisor Ophir Falk

Per Alliance Theory, Ophir Falk sits at the intersection of several coalitions, but his power does not come from public intellectual status or journalistic influence. It comes from being embedded in the governing national security circle around Benjamin Netanyahu. His … Continue reading

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Trump Says America Might Hit Kharg Island Against ‘Just For Fun’

When elites react with alarm to a statement like “we might hit Kharg Island again just for fun,” they are responding to incentives tied to their coalition roles. Alliance Theory helps clarify why the same sentence lands so differently depending … Continue reading

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Decoding Iran Scholar Roxane Farmanfarmaian

Roxane Farmanfarmaian teaches international politics at the University of Cambridge and she is the daughter of the Iranian prince Manucher Mirza Farman Farmaian of the Qajar dynasty. She carries inherited knowledge. Alliance Theory predicts that coalitions often need a bridge … Continue reading

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Decoding Iran Scholar Sahar Razavi

Alliance Theory, developed by David Pinsof, shifts the key question away from what a scholar believes toward what coalitions her framing allows her to coordinate with, and what audiences reward her for saying it. Applied to Sahar Razavi, a political … Continue reading

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Elite Narrative Convergence In Iran War

Grok says: From elite strategy circles and quasi-intel shops, the narrative is coalescing around a “pivot to endurance” – the initial shock of decapitation strikes has given way to a grinding campaign aimed at eroding Iran’s logistical backbone, but Tehran’s … Continue reading

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The Definitive Verdict On Trump’s Iran War

The conflict is fifteen days old. The definitive verdicts are already everywhere. That speed is not accidental, and it is not simply a product of media incentives, though those matter. The deeper engine is coalition logic. Each alliance in the … Continue reading

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How do the MSM know Trump doesn’t have a plan for the Strait of Hormuz?

They don’t know. They infer. Most mainstream reporters covering the Strait of Hormuz question work from three signals. The first is bureaucratic. In Washington reporting, journalists treat the visible behavior of institutions as a proxy for the existence of a … Continue reading

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Decoding Historian Turned Pundit Phillips Payson O’Brien

Phillips Payson O’Brien is a historian who uses the past to strip the romance from the present. His work belongs to a tradition of materialist strategy that treats war as an industrial process rather than a series of heroic maneuvers. … Continue reading

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Iran Experts On The War

Afshon Ostovar is an expert on Iran, the Middle East, and security issues—Associate Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, and author of books like Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Middle East. He says … Continue reading

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