What Would Tom Wolfe See?

I ask Grok: “What would Tom Wolfe, born in 1930, at the height of his powers, observe about status markers and status striving in America today?”

Grok says:

Tom Wolfe, the sharp-eyed chronicler of American social hierarchies, would likely find today’s status markers both familiar and bewilderingly evolved. At his peak—say, the 1970s or ‘80s, when he dissected everything from radical chic to astronaut bravado—he’d notice that the old trappings of class ( pedigree, tailored suits, Ivy League pedigrees) have been scrambled by new forces: tech wealth, digital clout, and a performative egalitarianism that masks cutthroat ambition.
He’d probably zero in on the smartphone as the ultimate status totem—not just its brand (though an iPhone 15 Pro Max in titanium screams louder than a battered Android), but how it’s wielded. The Instagram flex of a “candid” private-jet shot or a TikTok dance from a minimalist $10 million loft signals wealth without the gauche old-money stench of a Rolls-Royce. Wolfe would see the shift from physical trophies to curated online personas—your follower count, your X blue check, your ability to “go viral”—as the new currency of prestige. The hedge fund titan in Patagonia fleece isn’t slumming it; he’s signaling he’s above needing to signal.
He’d likely marvel at the paradox of “authenticity” as a status game. The tech bro fasting for 72 hours or the influencer hawking $40 organic candles—both are chasing clout by pretending not to chase it. Wolfe would spot the high-low mashup too: billionaires in hoodies dining at hole-in-the-wall taco joints, not because they’re humble, but because obscurity is the new exclusivity. Meanwhile, the middle class scrambles for Pelotons and Tesla leases, aping the elite’s casual excess.
Striving, though? It’s fiercer than ever. Wolfe would see the gig economy hustle—Uber drivers, DoorDashers, OnlyFans creators—as a raw, Darwinian scramble dressed up as “freedom.” The old ladder’s gone; now it’s a greased pole. He’d probably write a biting scene: a Stanford dropout in a San Francisco co-living space, guzzling Soylent, pitching his AI startup to VCs on Zoom, all while tweeting about “disrupting the paradigm”—a modern Willy Loman with better Wi-Fi.
Wolfe’s eye for detail would catch the linguistic tics too: “founder,” “thought leader,” “impact”—words that inflate egos while dodging the stink of naked ambition. He’d see America’s status obsession hasn’t faded; it’s just gone fractal, splintered across a million screens, each a tiny stage for the same old human comedy.

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Is there a mental health crisis on the left since Trump’s election?

Grok says:

There’s no hard data confirming a full-blown mental health crisis specific to “the left” since Trump’s election in November 2024, but there’s enough smoke to suggest something’s brewing. The American Psychological Association’s 2024 “Stress in America” survey, released pre-election, already showed 77% of adults felt anxious about the future of the nation, with liberals historically reporting higher stress over political outcomes than conservatives. Post-election, anecdotal evidence—therapists on X and in news reports like NPR’s December 2024 piece—notes a spike in clients citing “Trump-related anxiety,” with symptoms like insomnia, panic attacks, and doomscrolling. Some call it a replay of 2016’s “Post-Trump Stress Disorder,” a term psychologists coined half-seriously back then.
On X, you’ll find left-leaning users posting about despair over Trump’s win, Musk’s influence, and policy fears—think climate rollback or DOGE layoffs. Hashtags like #TrumpTrauma and #ResistanceBurnout pop up, though they’re more vibe than diagnosis. Studies like the 2021 NIH paper on political polarization and mental health show losing elections can trigger real psychological distress in partisan groups, especially when the stakes feel existential. Liberals, often framing Trump as a threat to democracy or marginalized communities, might be primed for that hit. A 2025 Kaiser Family Foundation poll (hypothetical, based on trends) could easily show 30-40% of Democrats reporting worsened mental health post-election—plausible, but unconfirmed as of March 19, 2025.
Flip it, though: conservatives argue the left’s reaction is overblown, pointing to their own resilience after Biden’s 2020 win. Mental health pros say distress is normal after seismic political shifts—doesn’t mean a “crisis” unless it’s sustained and widespread. Hospitalizations, suicide rates, or therapy upticks specific to left-leaning areas haven’t been publicly tracked yet for Q4 2024-Q1 2025. Without that, it’s a theory with legs but no firm footing. What’s undeniable: Trump’s return has some on the left rattled, and a chunk are vocal about it. Whether that’s a crisis or just loud coping, the jury’s still out.

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What are the odds there will still be an independent Jewish state of Israel in the Middle East in 30 years?

What are the most likely threats to end Israel?

Grok says:

Israel’s track record suggests durability. Since its founding in 1948, it has weathered multiple wars (1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982, 2006), intifadas, and ongoing conflicts with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran-backed proxies, emerging each time with its sovereignty intact. Its military edge—bolstered by U.S. support ($3.8 billion annually, per 2025 aid agreements)—and nuclear capability (estimated 80-200 warheads, per SIPRI 2024) make it a regional powerhouse. Economically, Israel’s tech sector drives a GDP per capita of $55,000 (World Bank, 2024), rivaling Western nations. These factors suggest a strong baseline for survival.
Yet, 30 years is a long horizon. Historical Jewish states—like the Davidic Kingdom and Hasmonean dynasty—collapsed around their 75th year due to internal strife, a pattern some analysts (e.g., Helen Diller Institute, 2023) note as Israel nears its own 75th anniversary. Current internal divisions—judicial overhaul protests, coalition instability (Netanyahu’s 61-59 Knesset majority, per MEI, January 2025)—echo this risk. Externally, shifting global alliances (e.g., BRICS’ rise) and declining U.S. youth support (Pew, 2024: 60% of 18-29-year-olds view Israel unfavorably) could erode its position. Still, Israel’s adaptability and strategic alliances (e.g., Abraham Accords) tilt the odds in its favor—call it a 70-80% chance of enduring, barring catastrophic disruption.
Most Likely Threats to End Israel
Here’s a ranked list of plausible threats that could terminate Israel’s existence as an independent Jewish state, based on current dynamics and their potential escalation over three decades:
Internal Collapse and Civil Conflict
How It Could Happen: Israel’s political polarization—between secular liberals, ultra-Orthodox Haredim (15% of population, growing 4% annually, per CBS Israel 2024), and far-right settlers—could fracture governance. The 2023 judicial crisis saw mass protests and threats of reservist boycotts; a deeper rift (e.g., over conscription or West Bank policy) might spark civil war. If diaspora support wanes (U.S. Jewish donations: $2 billion yearly, per JFNA 2024), economic strain could compound this.

Likelihood: Moderate to high. Internal discord has historical precedent and current momentum—Netanyahu’s coalition teeters, and X posts (March 2025) from Israeli thinkers warn of “self-implosion” if far-right policies persist.

Impact: A fragmented Israel could lose its Jewish-majority identity or invite external exploitation, dissolving statehood.

Regional War with Iran and Proxies
How It Could Happen: Iran’s nuclear ambitions (enrichment at 60%, IAEA 2024) and proxy network (Hezbollah: 150,000 rockets; Hamas rebuilding post-2024 ceasefire) pose an existential threat. A coordinated assault—say, Hezbollah overwhelming Iron Dome while Iran strikes key infrastructure—could cripple Israel. If Trump’s 2025 peace push falters (Newsweek, December 2024), escalation looms.

Likelihood: Moderate. Iran’s deterrence hinges on Israel’s retaliation capacity, but a miscalculation (e.g., direct missile exchange, as in April 2024) could spiral.

Impact: Military defeat or massive casualties could force Israel to cede sovereignty or trigger international intervention, ending its independence.

Demographic Shift and One-State Outcome
How It Could Happen: Palestinians in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza total 7 million (PCBS, 2024) against 7.2 million Israeli Jews (CBS, 2024). If Israel annexes the West Bank (a far-right goal) without expelling Palestinians, or if a one-state solution emerges from global pressure, Jews could become a minority by 2055 (growth rates: 2.5% Arab vs. 1.4% Jewish). X sentiment (March 13, 2025) predicts this as “game over” for a Jewish state.

Likelihood: Moderate. Political resistance (Knesset’s 68-9 vote against Palestine, 2024) delays this, but international isolation might force it.

Impact: A binational state would end Israel’s Jewish character, though not necessarily its existence as a polity.

Global Isolation and Economic Collapse
How It Could Happen: Growing anti-Israel sentiment—BRICS alignment against it (40% of global GDP, IMF 2024), U.S. youth opposition, and BDS expansion—could cut trade, tech investment, and military aid. X posts (March 19) peg Israel’s viability at “30 years max” if isolated. Losing $40 billion in annual exports (WTO, 2024) would tank its economy.

Likelihood: Low to moderate. Abraham Accords and tech resilience buffer this, but a U.S. policy pivot under a future administration could tip the scales.

Impact: An unviable economy might force Israel into dependency or dissolution.

Catastrophic Black Swan Event
How It Could Happen: A wildcard—cyberattack disabling defenses, climate-driven resource wars (Jordan River depletion), or a global power shift (e.g., U.S.-China conflict sidelining Israel)—could overwhelm its capacity to adapt.

Likelihood: Low. Israel’s preparedness (e.g., cybersecurity leadership) mitigates this, but 30 years invites unpredictability.

Impact: Total state failure could erase independence.

Critical Take
Israel’s survival odds lean positive due to its military, economic, and diplomatic strengths, but the threats are real and interconnected. Internal division is the sleeper risk—more insidious than Iran’s rockets—because it undermines resilience against external pressures. The demographic clock ticks loudest long-term; if Israel can’t secure its Jewish majority, its identity shifts even without war. Global isolation looms as a slow choke, not a quick kill. Over 30 years, I’d wager it endures as a Jewish state unless internal rot or a regional cataclysm hits first—70-80% feels right, but the 20-30% downside isn’t trivial.

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How is MAGA growing and nurturing its own elite intellects?

I’m concerned that MAGA’s average IQ is not high. I don’t want MAGA to be a moronic movement.

Grok:

Your concern about MAGA (Make America Great Again) growing and nurturing elite intellects while avoiding being perceived as a “moronic movement” touches on a mix of organizational strategy, cultural perception, and intellectual development within the movement. As of March 19, 2025, here’s an analysis based on observable trends and efforts within MAGA-aligned circles, without speculating on unverified IQ averages or diving into unprovable stereotypes.
How MAGA Is Growing and Nurturing Elite Intellects
MAGA’s approach to cultivating intellectual leadership isn’t centralized like a university system but relies on a network of influencers, organizations, and alternative platforms that prioritize ideological alignment over traditional academic credentials. Here’s what’s happening:
Alternative Education and Mentorship Initiatives
Trump’s proposed “American Academy,” announced in early 2025, aims to offer online learning with AI tutors, real mentors, and accredited degrees, free of “woke” influence. Posts on X from March 18 highlight this as a way to nurture a next generation unbound by debt or progressive curricula, suggesting a focus on practical, conservative-aligned skills. While details are thin, it’s pitched as a counter to elite universities, potentially attracting sharp minds who reject mainstream academia.

Organizations like Turning Point USA (TPUSA), with its $80 million budget and Tempe, Arizona, campus, train young conservatives through events, leadership summits, and media production. TPUSA’s reach—think Charlie Kirk’s debates and campus recruitment—targets agile, ambitious thinkers who can articulate MAGA values.

Think Tanks and Policy Shapers
The Heritage Foundation’s Young Leaders program, which produced figures like Josh Hawley, shows a deliberate pipeline for grooming intellectual talent. Hawley’s Ivy League background (Stanford, Yale Law) paired with MAGA loyalty exemplifies how the movement co-opts high-IQ individuals into its elite. Heritage’s 2025 policy playbook, Project 2025, further demonstrates a cerebral backbone, even if polarizing.

The America First Legal group, led by Stephen Miller, and the Claremont Institute, with its “American Mind” journal, are hubs for legal and philosophical talent. They’re churning out arguments—like J.D. Vance’s populist writings—that blend street-level appeal with sophisticated reasoning.

Tech and Media Ecosystem
Silicon Valley defectors like Elon Musk (who claims a 155 IQ) and Vivek Ramaswamy bring entrepreneurial brainpower to MAGA. Musk’s X platform amplifies MAGA voices, while Ramaswamy’s 2024 campaign and post-election influence pitch deregulation and meritocracy—ideas that resonate with problem-solvers and innovators.

Podcasts like Steve Bannon’s War Room or Ben Shapiro’s show blend populist energy with policy wonkery, nurturing a cadre of communicators who can spar with coastal elites. Shapiro, a Harvard Law grad, exemplifies how MAGA leverages credentialed intellects to legitimize its brand.

Grassroots Intellectualism
MAGA’s base includes self-taught thinkers—X users dissecting news, writing manifestos, or debating policy in real time. This DIY ethos doesn’t always yield PhDs but fosters a scrappy, adaptive intelligence. The movement’s rejection of “expert class” gatekeepers encourages independent reasoning, even if it’s raw or unpolished.

Addressing the IQ Concern
You’re worried about MAGA’s average IQ dragging it into moronic territory. There’s no hard data on MAGA supporters’ IQs—claims on platforms like Quora (e.g., Trump at 140-145) or X posts guessing at averages are anecdotal or satirical, not scientific. The Flynn Effect, which tracked rising IQs globally for decades, has plateaued or reversed in some developed nations (per Intelligence, 2023), but this isn’t specific to MAGA. Studies like those from Northwestern (2023) suggest U.S. IQ dips, yet political affiliation isn’t a clean proxy for intelligence.
MAGA’s intellectual profile is dual-tiered:
Elite Layer: Figures like Vance (Yale Law), Hawley, or Musk showcase high-octane intellects steering the ship. They’re not morons—they’re strategic, often contrarian, and play to both populist and cerebral audiences.

Base Layer: The broader movement’s strength is emotional resonance—anger at elites, economic anxiety—not IQ-test prowess. Critics on X or in media (e.g., The Independent, November 2024) caricature MAGA as low-IQ, citing rally antics or conspiracy threads, but this ignores the diversity of its 74 million-plus 2020 voters.

Signs It’s Working (or Not)
Growth Signals: TPUSA’s packed events and Heritage’s policy wins (e.g., shaping Trump’s 2025 agenda) show MAGA’s nurturing efforts gaining traction. The American Academy, if it launches, could churn out credentialed loyalists by 2030.

Risk of Moronic Perception: If the loudest voices remain bombastic (e.g., MTG’s X rants) rather than sharp (e.g., Vance’s speeches), the movement risks reinforcing a dumbed-down stereotype. Trump’s own style—brash, not bookish—can overshadow the brain trust.

Perspective
MAGA isn’t aiming for a Mensa convention—it’s building a hybrid of street-smart populism and elite strategists. The “moronic” label sticks when optics trump substance, but the movement’s survival suggests it’s not brain-dead. Its intellects aren’t traditional—less ivory tower, more insurgent—but they’re there, growing through parallel systems. If you want MAGA to shed the low-IQ stigma, watch how its elites balance guiding the base without alienating it.

Is Trump making progress replacing the current elites with new elites?

Grok:

Donald Trump is indeed making progress in replacing current elites with a new cadre aligned with his vision, though it’s a slow, uneven process shaped by his administration’s early moves, cultural influence, and structural constraints. This isn’t a clean swap-out of one ruling class for another—it’s more of a disruption, chipping away at established power while elevating loyalists and outsiders. Here’s how it’s playing out, based on what’s visible so far.
Progress in Replacing Elites
Political and Administrative Elites
Cabinet and Appointments: Trump’s second-term picks signal a shift from traditional GOP insiders to MAGA stalwarts. Susie Wiles as chief of staff (a campaign veteran over D.C. fixtures), Vivek Ramaswamy at Commerce, and Tulsi Gabbard as DNI (a former Dem turned Trump ally) bypass the old guard—think Mitch McConnell’s orbit or Bush-era neocons. The Washington Post (March 15, 2025) notes over 50% of his appointees lack prior government experience, prioritizing loyalty over elite résumés.

Schedule F Revival: Reinstated in January 2025, this policy reclassifies thousands of federal workers as at-will employees, per Politico (March 10). It’s already purged careerists in agencies like the EPA and State Department, replacing them with Trump-aligned figures. X posts from insiders (e.g., March 17) claim “hundreds” of holdovers are out, with Heritage Foundation-vetted replacements moving in.

Legal and Judicial Elites
Big Law Attacks: Trump’s executive orders targeting firms like Perkins Coie and Covington & Burling (WSJ, March 17) aim to kneecap the legal elite tied to Democratic power. By revoking clearances and pushing EEOC probes, he’s forcing a choice: adapt or erode. Newer, MAGA-friendly firms—like America First Legal under Stephen Miller—are stepping up, positioning themselves as an alternative elite.

Judicial Pipeline: With GOP Senate control, Trump’s appointing younger, ideologically pure judges at a clip—12 confirmed by March 2025, per Bloomberg Law. These aren’t just conservative; they’re often Claremont Institute mentees or Federalist Society outliers, shifting the judiciary’s intellectual center rightward.

Cultural and Intellectual Elites
Media and Tech Shift: Trump’s amplifying voices like Elon Musk (X’s de facto megaphone) and Tucker Carlson, whose nightly X streams rival cable news reach. Traditional gatekeepers—CNN, NYT—are losing ground to this new elite, with Musk’s net worth hitting $421 billion (Forbes, March 18) and his influence dwarfing legacy media barons. X posts show MAGA fans crowning these figures as “real thought leaders.”

Education Push: The “American Academy” plan (X, March 18) isn’t live yet, but it’s a long-game bid to train a generation outside Ivy League norms. Meanwhile, Turning Point USA and Hillsdale College are churning out young thinkers—less credentialed, more populist—who challenge coastal academics.

Economic Elites
Business Allies: Trump’s courting tech and finance renegades—Peter Thiel, Marc Andreessen, and Ramaswamy—who reject ESG and DEI orthodoxies. Their venture capital and policy clout (e.g., Thiel’s Palantir contracts) signal a pivot from Wall Street’s old guard to a MAGA-friendly plutocracy. The Financial Times (March 16) notes these “new billionaires” are reshaping elite networks.

Evidence of Success
Speed and Scale: Over 1,000 federal hires by mid-March (Axios, March 19) and a judiciary already 25% Trump-appointed from his first term show tangible replacement. Big Law’s wobble—Perkins Coie’s client losses, per its lawsuit—hints at elite fragility.

Cultural Echo: X trends like #DrainTheSwamp spiking weekly and Trump’s 80% approval among Republicans (Gallup, March 17) suggest the new elite resonates with his base, legitimizing them over old power.

Institutional Disruption: Agencies like the CFPB face leadership overhauls, and universities brace for funding cuts (NYT, February 28), weakening entrenched elites’ grip.

Limits and Pushback
Time Constraint: Two years (or six with a 2028 proxy) isn’t enough to fully displace entrenched elites—think Wall Street banks or Harvard’s endowment. The old guard’s wealth and networks endure.

Resistance: Courts have stalled some moves—Perkins Coie’s injunction (March 2025)—and careerists in bureaucracies slow-roll changes. Elites adapt; they don’t vanish.

Quality Debate: Critics on X and in The Atlantic (March 14) argue Trump’s new elite—often untested or bombastic—lacks the polish or depth of predecessors, risking a perception of amateurism.

Perspective
Trump’s making headway by brute force and parallel systems, not subtle infiltration. He’s less replacing elites wholesale than creating a rival class—rougher, louder, but gaining ground. The old elite’s still standing, but cracks are showing: Big Law’s on edge, D.C.’s reshuffling, and MAGA’s intellectuals are getting airtime. Progress is real, but it’s a siege, not a coup—yet. If you’re measuring “elites” by power, not pedigree, he’s ahead of schedule.

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Will Barack & Michelle Obama divorce soon?

Grok says:

The rumors kicked into high gear recently due to Michelle’s absence from notable events like Jimmy Carter’s funeral and Donald Trump’s inauguration in early 2025, while Barack attended solo. His courtside appearance at an NBA game in Los Angeles on March 12, 2025, without her added fuel to the fire, as reported by outlets like the Daily Mail. Gossip has also been stoked by tabloids like In Touch, which in August 2024 spun wild tales of betrayal involving Barack and Jennifer Aniston (who laughed it off on Jimmy Kimmel Live! in late 2024, saying she barely knows him). Posts on X have echoed these sentiments, with some users claiming Michelle’s absences signal a split, though none offer hard proof.
On the flip side, the Obamas have pushed back subtly but consistently. Barack’s Valentine’s Day 2025 post on X—“Thirty-two years together and you still take my breath away”—paired with a smiling couple photo, and Michelle’s reciprocal Instagram Story calling him “my rock,” suggest they’re still united. Their 32nd anniversary posts in October 2024 were similarly affectionate. Michelle’s new podcast, IMO with Michelle Obama and Craig Robinson, launched March 12, 2025, doesn’t directly address divorce rumors but includes her joking about Barack’s quirks—like his tardiness—while reflecting on their White House years, per reviews from The New York Times and Vanity Fair. She’s also spoken broadly about weathering gossip, as noted in a March 17, 2025, The Root piece, without confirming any rift.
The media’s take splits along predictable lines: the Daily Mail and pundits like Maureen Callahan (March 12, 2025) lean into the drama, suggesting Michelle’s podcast hints at strife, while InStyle (March 15, 2025) and others frame it as the Obamas shrugging off noise as they always have.

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