Can Trump Win?

Comments:

* The two “black swan” events that can still sink Hillary are:

– Wikileaks release of her “deleted” private server emails.

– Major health problem revelation.

Otherwise, Trump has a long, uphill slog even if there are multiple terrorist attacks (Moslem and/or Negro.)

Not saying he can’t win, but right now he’s a 5-1 long shot. At best. What he needs is a very, very motivated following versus a very, very unmotivated bunch of Hillary supporters. Think Brexit. Young, pro-stay voters turned out 30%. Older, pro-leave voters turned out 80%.

In a way, the popular wisdom that Trump can’t win might be his best asset.

* There’s no real evidence that these things have helped Trump. If none of them had happened, do you suppose he’d be down 20 points or something in the polls right now?

* Trump is probably underpolling by 3-5% which seems to be the current range that right of center candidates or issues underpoll. This seems to be the current range. For example, Brexit. The last polls showed a close Remain win, only for reality to reflect a clear Leave mandate. In the UK they refer to it as the “Shy Tory” syndrome. Right of center, conservative voters/thinkers tend not to shout out their views to the world. The Left devotes considerable effort to making non-liberal views socially unacceptable. That’s Sarah Silverman’s entire department in the Democratic Party.

Trump is an extreme case. We are told daily from literally every media source that Trump is unacceptable. Few people who intend to vote for Trump are going to advertise this fact. So the polls probably understate his true position. But if he trails Hilary by more than 3 percentage points in November, he’s probably toast. Plus Obama’s get-out-the-vote machine destroyed Romney’s and Hilary will inherit that, so Trump has issues beyond bad poll numbers.

* Good thing no one watches The Simpsons anymore, eh? My family watched The Simpsons religiously for its first 12 years. In the last two or three of those years, we noticed that maybe one out of four programs was actually funny, and the proportion kept declining. Hearing occasionally that The Simpsons is still on TV gives me a mild surprise, like noticing that MAD magazine or Playboy are still being published.

* Obama’s get-out-the-vote machine destroyed Romney’s

Maybe so, but the main problem with getting out the vote for Romney was that by the time Election Day had arrived he had long since destroyed any energy around his campaign, first by dropping the immigration issue and then by his wimpy performance in the second and third debates.

* It’s different this time. Trump has smoked out the globalists and Lefties like crazy and shown the MSM to be totally corrupt and dishonest. Not to mention censoring issues on the economy, employment, trade and immigration.

Also the pain threshold among the blue collars and middle-class is pretty much off the charts now because of globalization and immigration.

It can’t be whitewashed by a bunch of Ivy Leaguers anymore. The shitstorm we’re facing is right out in front of us.

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Will Trump Go Nuclear?

Comments at Steve Sailer:

* It’s like a replay of the LBJ attack ad on Goldwater in which a little girl was picking the pedals off a daisy while a voice was counting down from 10 in a nuclear launch. The implication was that LBJ was the one to trust with the nukes. It does look like the dems are using this against Trump. On a few blogs I read the trolls are bringing this up a lot. They seem oblivious to the retorts that Hillary, not Trump, seems intent on baiting Russia.

* The idea of expanding NATO endlessly — not sure where that came from. It strikes me as a zombie idea … you can’t kill it. No one (other than Russia) wants to say no. And it gets muddled with the expansion of the Eurozone. But the idea of expanding Europe Eastward never goes away.

One requirement for NATO expansion is that the candidate country can’t have current border disputes. Sort of like an insurance company not underwrite a burning building.

So … There are breakaway territories in Georgia and Moldova. Which precludes their admission, which is exactly what Russia wants. And now Ukraine is ineligible. The reason it doesn’t/hasn’t happened more is that the border dispute qualification isn’t carved in stone, and there is always the chance that the ultra hawks will get their way and expand into a dispute. Someone always brings it up, so maybe it is considered best to not overuse the tactic.

Moldova is the poorest country in Europe and it is hard to imagine anyone really wanting it. Furthermore, the breakaway area, Transdniester, is one of the least desirable parts of Moldova.

When you look at these places, it is obvious that they aren’t worth any serious investment of anything. Why bother? It is also possible that people might look at a map and see that they are in the middle of nowhere.

I also have a hunch that even the US is ok with it. At worst, it creates a minor problem that can then be put in the pile of stuff that will never get done. And at least some people in the US are smart enough to see it as a solution to the never ending expansion.

* It was the Bush Regime that first pushed NATO to the borders of Russia in 2004 with the addition of:
Bulgaria
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia

* Speaking of the Olympics, apparently they have a “Refugee Team” now. Is this supposed to guilt westerners into taking in more refugees? Can people get any crazier? WTF.

* This reminds me of the Chicoms who love to talk about the Opium Wars and the Rape of Nanking but not so much about the much more recent Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, which killed more Chinese than the foreign invaders ever did. Historical memory tends to be very selective – in the US it’s always 1954 and Rosa Parks is always being asked to move to the back of the bus.

Apparently the Chinese have been taking their loss to the Philippines in the international tribunal on the South China Sea issue out on the Americans (the Philippines is seen as an American proxy) and specifically they have been demonstrating against that bastion of American imperialism, KFC. The Chicoms normally suppress any whiff of dissent but hating on the Americans is seen as a safe outlet for popular discontent, just as Hillary would rather that you demonstrate against racist white cops than against Goldman Sachs.

* Stalin was a shrewd operator who knew his homeland well. The minority nations had little interest in a Russian empire, whether run by the tsar or the Bolsheviks. They had to be put down by force in the Civil War era, and again during WWII.

If you look at the boundaries of the old Soviet Republics you can see they were often designed to include a “poison pill”, another minority that would resist being placed under the governance of a larger neighbor. In turn that would give the Soviet authorities a basis to intervene and and an ally. S. Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabach, Transdnistra, etc are features not bugs.

Not that I think any of ‘em are worth a Texas National Guardsman’s bones.

* The US was not happy with the Russian territorial advances at the end of WWII but it was not willing to start another war over them. Then nuclear weapons made starting another war unthinkable. Then at the end of the Cold War , Russians finally retreated, much to the relief of all the occupied countries. Now Putin would like to come back. Should the people of the territories involved have any say in this this time? Is it wrong for them to turn to the US to prevent the Russian from giving them another “bear hug”?

Honestly, the US would have no interest in places like Lithuania except for the fact that the Russians keep trying to reestablish their “sphere of influence” in places where they are not welcome and will never be welcome.

* At heart, the elites are globalists rather than Europeans or Atlanticists. They could have proposed a free trade, passport-free travel zone comprised of, say, the eight European countries with the highest GDP per capita, and there would never have been a Brexit.

But they are compelled to bundle the good with the sh*t, because they want the proles to eat sh*t. It’s the same here. They could have had an immigration comprise years ago, with more tech visas in return for ending immigration of 4th grade dropouts from Chiapas and Jihadists from Somalia and Pakistan. But they want to rub your nose in the sh*t too.

* Trump should subtly remind everyone that the only world leader ever to resort to nuclear weapons was not in his party.

Posted in America, NATO | Comments Off on Will Trump Go Nuclear?

Was Trump Wrong To Reply To Khan?

Comments:

* One of the things that disturbs me most about the US is the cult of military worship that pervades the country. Trump didn’t pick some family out at random and attack them, he rightfully (but crudely) responded to a man who exploited his son’s death in order to shame him on behalf of the warmonger who helped kill him – and will help kill many more in her future wars. Apparently, if you have any connection to the military, you are above criticism, even if you invite it by unfairly attacking someone else first.

* Is Khan somehow immune from criticism when he makes himself a political actor? He appeared at a political convention to attack Trump from behind the body of his dead son. I found it to be insulting and offensive – for this little pakistani poppinjay to wag the Constitution at us – the fundamental law of my country, authored by my people. My people created this country. Not his. His people created Pakistan. He has no business lecturing me about my nation. Then there is this about Khan:

1.) He works, or has worked, as an agent of a foreign government (Saudi Arabia).

2.) He worked for a firm that represented Hillary Clinton.

3.) He is a proponent of Sharia Law – for him to lecture us on the US Constitution is an act of insolence and effrontery.

4.) His son is one of only 14 muslims killed in our recent wars (the first fifteen years of John McCain’s Hundred Years War). Maj. Nidal Hasan killed 13 American soldiers in one day at Fort Hood.

Hillary Clinton’s Bapu Bhat stand-in (“Donald Trump is a very bad man…..a very, very bad man!”) shouldn’t get a pass from anyone.

And where did this “Gold Star Family” stuff come from anyway? I never heard that term until last week. Like “The Homeland”, it seems to be one of these new security-state, permanent-war terms that arose in the wake of 9/11. Last time I checked, we don’t live in the “Starship Troopers” universe, where only military service guarantees citizenship. Having a relative who was killed in war doesn’t mean you get the privilege of never ever having any of your opinions questioned. This sure as Hell isn’t the country I was born in.

* Sharing your concern for Mr.Khan’s commitment to Sharia while lecturing about Constitutional guarantees of equal rights, I would add that the silence of Mrs. Khan is indeed significant.

Recognizing that the Gold Star memorial Service Flag was originally, and almost continuously thereafter, associated with and dedicated to “Gold Star Mothers,” what is sadly revealing about the whole incident is the failure of Mrs. Khan, the actual Gold Star Mother, to be the speaker. Perhaps Gold Star Family is the new multi-cultural diversity friendly identity for those whose religion does not allow an actual Gold Star Mother to speak or otherwise be recognized as an individual equal to a man.

Posted in America | Comments Off on Was Trump Wrong To Reply To Khan?

Somalia: “Where Hyenas Are Used to Treat Mental Illness”

Comments at Steve Sailer:

* Bring more! Thousands more! Millions more! Bring the hyenas too. Diversity is our strength.

* WHO estimates that one in three Somalis either is or has been affected by mental illness, compared to a global average of one in 10. In parts of the country, where the population has been the most psychologically scarred from decades of conflict, the rate is even higher.

* Hyena care: “If you like your hyena you’ll be able to keep your hyena”

* Less toxic than fluoxetine. Hyenas: nature’s answer. Organic, free-range (though not cruelty-free). Pick one up today to pick up your spirits. Now available in children’s chewables. Badoom.

* To showcase her commitment to diversity, Hillary should be locked in a hut for one night with a hyena.

* Two hyenas enter.
One hyena leaves.

My money would be on Hillary.

* A lot of Somalis look like they have zika shaped foreheads. Look at the Somali actor in the Tom Hanks film Captain Phillips, I never see any African Americans with a forehead like his.

* Everyone in the Twin Cities knows that African immigrant women chop their daughters genitals off: police, schools, clinics, and hospitals, doctors, nurses, cops, teachers and administrators. It is a dirty little secret up there.

Sooner or later, an enterprising lawyer is going to file a class action suit against the hospitals, schools, cities and counties with hundreds of these girls as plaintiffs. The settlement is going to be huge.

* So basically 23 years ago we invaded Somalia because it was 3rd world heckhole of misery, depression, violence, disease, famine, and corruption. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Mogadishu_%281993%29

Books and movies came out depicting how awful life was there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Hawk_Down_%28book%29)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Hawk_Down_%28film%29

Decades later it was no different; the residents had taken up piracy on the open seas, committing atrocities along the way.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maersk_Alabama_hijacking

A movie got made about that as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Captain_Phillips_%28film%29

And now, in 2016, we’re supposed to pretend these folks will fit right into a first-world country and not be a problem.

I’ve toyed with the idea of researching how the mass Irish immigration of the 1840s onwards in our nation–and later the late 19th Century Southern and Eastern European immigration—turned once-livable cities into heckholes of murder, violence, and corruption. It would sting to those of us (including myself) with roots in that immigration, but it would be necessary to show that those immigrants did not seamlessly integrate and become first-worlders, but remained and brought with them 2nd and third world problems.

Heck, the history of the Five Points alone is enough to chill one’s blood about the “greatness” of mass immigration from the 2nd and 3rd world–at least 70 years of filth:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Points,_Manhattan

Thee romanticization of the American Mafia—with its roots in Italian and Jewish street gangs, and stretching back to Irish-American street gangs (the Five Families can be traced to Irish street gangs whose territory they took over)—-should be turned on its head: the mass importation of those groups added a shnikey-load of murder and crime that has lasted to this day. Do we really want even more of that?

* That’s pretty much openly acknowledged by most serious historians, whorefinder. William J. Stuntz’s “The Collapse of American Criminal Justice” faithfully documents how 19th century mass immigration was responsible for one of the two largest crime waves in American history (the other was the result of the Great Migration). Or, better yet, read George Orwell, whose view was that mass immigration was openly used by America’s elites as a battering ram against the country’s original Republican values, turning the USA from a nation of mostly Protestant smallholders into a playground for industrial capitalists.

But it was a trade: America moved from the periphery of world affairs to become a global power. Mass immigration, at least in its early stages, was also a battering ram against the South in the Civil War, and I wouldn’t argue that the triumph of plantation values would have been markedly superior to the ascendancy of industrial capitalism. Nor, for that matter, would the triumph of Germany’s administrative state in the early 20th century (any version, really) have been an improvement over the one sadly erected by Woodrow Wilson and FDR. Moreover, without mass immigration from Europe the Great Migration might simply have been greater, with fewer African Americans concentrated in the South and just as much attendant crime and misery as they spread throughout the rest of the country. Blacks would have made up the majority of the proletariat, and, instead of enjoying working conditions closer to those afforded white immigrants, might have given racist owners an excuse to make life even worse for labour. America might have become a northern Brazil

So diversity did bring strength. The question, as always, is whose strength.

* “Somalia has 1,900 miles of coastline, a government that knows its place, and all the guns and wives you can afford to buy. Why have I never heard of this paradise before?”

— Pierce Hawthorne, Community

* It is wrong to treat Zakaria Bulhan with Western medicine. He needs to be treated in a culturally appropriate way. Zakaria needs and deserves the hyena treatment in order to drive out the evil spirits that are haunting him. Giving him the hyena treatment is the least we can do for him. Somali lives matter!

* Many of these Somalis are probably just feigning depression in order to get their shaman to write a scrip for a hyena.

* I remember a day after the Afghan axe attack in Germany, I was listening to BBC world news on NPR (it’s good for the humors– I’m too phlegmatic, need more yellow bile) and the announcer says something to the effect of “Afghan axe wielder was known to suffer from depression… are western nations doing enough for refugees’ mental health?”

I had a good laugh with my colleague when I got to my desk, but I guess it’s the next thing: Ritalin for refugees. Go long Pfizer, short the euro…

* And the parents locking their children in a room with a rabid hyena are thought to be the sane ones.

* “Ask your doctor if new Hyena ™ is right for you…”

* If a small dose of hyena does a little good, would a big dose of lion do even better?

* It doesn’t matter if Trump can’t find a way to turn the media’s apoplexy to his advantage.

In a circumstance where the media is going to twist your words or outright lie about what you say (Babygate), it seems like the way to deal with it is to make sure your comments are confined to issues, like the opponent’s corruption, that you want the public to keep thinking about. (For example, Russianhackgate was not so bad for Trump.)

Unfortunately, Trump lacks the intuition or discipline to do this. He makes unforced errors (Curielgate and Plagiarismgate) and takes the other side’s bait (Khangate).

The election is his to lose. All he has to do is make it a referendum on Bill and Hillary rather than a referendum on Trump, but he’s not doing it.

The only interest this article has is to let us know that the Democrats are going to naturalize all the illegals as fast as possible when Hillary wins. Great. Who’s going to stop her? Ryan? Ha!

* I’m old enough to remember when people took their mentally ill people to shamans wearing turtlenecks who promised to talk the insane out of being insane. After all, everyone knew that biology had nothing to do mental illness. It was childhood trauma that led to insanity. Heck, our schools still use shamans. They send them in to talk the kid out of being sad for the death of a classmate.

* I bet it works just as well. I might feel depressed, but maybe I should just shut up and become a productive member of society lest my family lock me in a room with an archaic carnivora beast again.

* People often adopt strange customs that are merely disguises for how they really want to behave if they could get away with it. For example, locking up an insane relative with a hyena is a way of trying to murder someone whose care is a heavy burden on you without bringing down the onus of the law on your head. And if the insane relative just ends up being mauled, it’s a socially acceptable way of letting out the family’s rage against what may be an annoying, obnoxious, and hyperaggressive family member with no control over himself without getting into trouble for beating up the victim themselves.

As for the ‘hyena’ who is hired in rape girls, in a culture which believes that women should be subservient to males, arranged rape is one way of achieving this. The result is a girl who becomes too scared and traumatized to stand up for herself, and she will become a dutiful child too downtrodden to resist an arranged marriage or any other future plans that her parents intent to impose on her against her will.

There’s a cold-blooded logic to all this.

* Who worked in the meat packing plants prior to the arrival of Somalis, Mexicans, Central Americans and Pacific Islanders?

What are they and their descendants working on today?

Slaughterhouse work used to be a rung-on-the-ladder job. A way to gain skills and then move on to more challenging – e.g., value added – work.

That rung and many like it, even the ladder itself, are disappearing fast.

What do you propose as its replacement?

Where is your comprehensive program for its construction and maintenance?

What steps have you taken to implement it?

* Actually, slaughterhouse work was a career more often than not for American workers when Americans did it. It paid a relatively high income for the crummy towns like Emporia, KS, where the slaughterhouses were located-maybe $10-13 an hour when McD’s paid $3.35 in the eighties-and though some younger workers did move on from there, usually that was where you stayed unless you moved out of town. Working in a slaughterhouse didn’t give you too many skills besides cutting up animals.

Occasionally people moved up from the line into supervisory jobs, where they would retire out from usually. But it was not an entry job for kids-there were more applicants than jobs and they usually tried to hire people with kids they had to support. And also, kids usually did not want to work in a slaughterhouse. Nobody particularly wanted to work in one, they did it because they had a family they needed to support.

* To grasp the full import of the tragedy of France, check out this video of Paris in 1937:

Only analogy I can think of is, imagine Disneyland allowing generous onsite Section 8 housing.

Posted in America, Somalia | Comments Off on Somalia: “Where Hyenas Are Used to Treat Mental Illness”

Black & Latino Journalists Can’t Stop Clapping For Hillary Clinton

REPORT: Hillary Clinton finally broke her 260-day long press conference moratorium Friday, and journalists couldn’t stop applauding her.

As a rule of thumb, press conferences are not the place to applaud politicians. It’s supposed to be a forum where the candidate is supposed to be scrutinized and questioned by reporters, who are supposed to behave in an objective manner (i.e., no clapping).

But all of that seemed to go out the window during a press event in Washington DC hosted by the National Association of Black Journalists and the National Association of Hispanic Journalists — the first press conference Clinton has held in nearly a year.

Posted in Blacks, Hillary Clinton, Latino | Comments Off on Black & Latino Journalists Can’t Stop Clapping For Hillary Clinton