Trump Is Right about Crime

Heather Mac Donald writes:

The media rushes to downplay the post-Ferguson shooting and homicide surge—and its effect on black lives.

It is remarkable how little black lives matter when they have not been taken by a police officer. The mainstream media is foaming at the mouth over Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s warnings about rising crime during his Thursday night convention speech. Trump pointed out that homicides were up nearly 17 percent in the largest 50 cities. (The latest research actually shows a nearly 17 percent increase in the 56 largest cities). There have been more than 2,000 shooting victims this year in Chicago, he said, and more than 3,600 killed in Chicago since President Obama took office.
The overwhelming majority of the victims in this post-Ferguson shooting and homicide surge have been black. In Baltimore, for example, 45 people were killed in July 2015 alone; 43 of them were black. Baltimore’s per capita murder rate was the highest in its history in 2015. In Chicago, 2,460 blacks were shot in 2015—lethally or non-lethally—or nearly seven blacks a day. By contrast, 78 whites were shot in Chicago, or one every 4.6 days. Twelve cities with large black populations saw murders rise anywhere from 54 percent—in the case of Washington, D.C.—to 90 percent, in Cleveland.
Trump’s concern about rising crime is therefore not a concern about white victims and the loss of white life. Rather, it is a concern about black lives. As Trump said: “[Y]oung Americans in Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, Ferguson . . . have as much of a right to live out their dreams as any other child America.” Hint to the media: He was referring to black children in those cities, such as the ten children under the age of ten killed in Baltimore last year; the nine-year-old girl fatally shot while doing homework on her mother’s bed in Ferguson, Missouri, in August 2015; and the nine-year-old boy in Chicago lured into an alley and killed by his father’s gang enemies in November 2015.
And yet the media is twisting itself into knots trying to downplay and trivialize the crime increase. Isn’t it white Republicans (and, of course, the cops) who are supposed to be indifferent to black lives? The Washington Post and Vox.com rushed out fact checkers to recycle many of the failed arguments against what I have called the “Ferguson effect”—the crime increase resulting from cops pulling back from proactive policing. Yes, crime is up, these journalists say, but it’s not as bad as it was years ago. “Even if the nationwide murder rate increased by 17 percent in 2015, that rate would remain far, far below the peaks of the 1960s and ’70s and below any period in the ’90’s,” argues Vox. But a crime decrease that took two decades to achieve is not going to be reversed completely in two years. If present trends continue, however, we could see that unprecedented and unpredicted crime decline of 50 percent disappear in a few more years.
Vox compares the 1980 murder rate with the much lower 2014 murder rate. But the Ferguson effect kicked in only after the death of Michael Brown in August 2014. The second half of 2014 reversed the crime decline of the year’s first half, but the full Ferguson effect showed up in 2015 and continued at least into the first quarter of 2016, with homicides up 9 percent and non-fatal shootings up 21 percent.
Confronted with the Chicago bloodshed, Vox changes the subject to America’s high rate of gun ownership. But the number of guns has not changed since Ferguson. What has changed is the willingness of young gangbangers to carry and use guns now that officers are making so many fewer pedestrian stops—90 percent fewer in Chicago this year, for example.
Vox also argues that there is “no evidence that ‘this administration’s rollback of criminal enforcement’ caused violent crime to rise” in Chicago (or, presumably, elsewhere). The Washington Post likewise challenges Trump’s ascription of the violent crime increase to the Obama administration, pointing out that policing is mainly a local phenomenon. Here, Trump’s critics are on more solid ground. The real action when it comes to policing and crime is at the local level. The federal government has little role in local crime-fighting, except for federal-local task forces on drug trafficking. To be sure, the Obama administration’s drive to slap an unprecedented number of consent decrees and federal monitors on police departments has created enormous headaches and wasteful paperwork challenges. At the margins, those consent decrees could have had an impact on policing and crime, as a recent study found. When the administration’s push for bogus “implicit bias” training kicks in, officers will be diverted from desperately needed tactical training and time spent fighting crime on the streets.
Yet, while there was no affirmative, policy-driven federal “rollback of criminal enforcement,” a rollback of enforcement at the local level has in fact occurred, with officers backing off of proactive policing. On that front, Trump got the causation absolutely right. “The irresponsible rhetoric of our president, who has used the pulpit of the presidency to divide us by race and color, has made America a more dangerous environment for everyone,” he said.
President Obama’s relentless accusations that cops are lethally biased, his embrace of Black Lives Matter, and the media’s amplification of that mendacious movement’s lies about the police have led to the drop in proactive enforcement and the resulting increase in crime. Trump’s recognition of the role that official rhetoric plays in determining facts on the ground is sophisticated. And his unapologetic alarum about the rising threat to law and order signified by the deliberate attacks on police officers is welcome.
Vox tries to downplay those attacks by noting that all on-duty deaths—including those from traffic accidents—are down 1 percent. But the Black Lives Matter hatred is not causing more car crashes; it is inspiring people to kill cops. Lethal shootings of cops are up 84 percent this year, according to Vox’s source, and up 68 percent according to the Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund. Those are chilling numbers. Not to worry, says Vox, “on-duty deaths remain rare, and 2016’s increase in gunfire deaths so far came after decades of decline.”
If on-duty deaths remain rare, so do police shootings of unarmed black males. In fact, a police officer is 18.5 times more likely to be killed by a black male than an unarmed black male is to be killed by a police officer. And the fact that “2016’s increase in gunfire deaths so far came after decades of decline” is precisely what makes the increase so striking. That it reverses decades of decline is not a point in Black Lives Matter’s favor. Read on.

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Clinton’s VP

Scott Adams blogs:

For context, consider Trump’s VP running mate, Mike Pence. He’s the perfect choice for Trump because of the contrast it creates. If you started with Trump and removed everything interesting about him, you’d have Pence. Visually, Pence is the washed-out, smaller, duller Trump. That’s perfect contrast. When you see the two of them together, Pence looks like a black-and-white photograph compared to Trump’s full color. In other words, Pence helps to make the top of the ticket look better, and that’s exactly what you want.

But Clinton had the extra challenge of being a woman in a sexist country. If she picked another woman as her running mate, it would seem to the public as a gender-based hire and work against her. That would be a losing strategy.

If Clinton picked an alpha male running mate – a Donald Trump type – it would create an awkward contrast and do nothing to make her look stronger. So Clinton’s best path was to select a beta male with solid credentials. Tim Kaine fits the bill.

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Since 2009, I’ve Started Every Day With A Cold Shower

Occasionally I will take one or two during the day as well to get a burst of energy and clarity but the most important thing for me is to take one first thing in the morning to get my day started right with an act of will over the most difficult part of my schedule.

My dad has been recommending the cold shower thing for as long as I remember.

New York Times: The point is that starting your morning by tackling challenges head-on will help encourage similar behavior throughout the day. And, it turns out, there’s a wealth of research to back up this idea as well. People who do hard things first tend to procrastinate less and get more done, according to Brian Tracy’s book, “Eat That Frog.”

It’s important to note that it’s not just about taking cold showers, it’s also about doing it in the morning. Consider that a one-two punch. According to the Florida State University psychology researcher Roy Baumeister, one of the leading experts on willpower, “The longer people have been awake, the more self-control problems happen.” In other words, if you wait until the evening to take your cold shower, there’s a greater chance you just won’t do it. Not to mention that it nullifies the whole idea of getting your day started on the right foot. So don’t just do it, do it in the morning.

The world is full of hard and scary things. We are at our best when we can tackle them bravely and confidently, not when we are accustomed to shying away. Set your alarm for two minutes earlier, get in the shower and before you turn it off, put it on cold. Think of it, quite literally, as stepping out of your comfort zone. It may be really hard, but just remember that most good things are.

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It’s Dangerous To Disagree With The Narrative

I’ve found that if you just post your own comments on your account and you don’t argue with anyone, you reduce your chances of getting in trouble with Twitter and Facebook and other social media as well as in real life.

I almost never argue in real life or on social media.

Comment: A few weeks ago, I posted contradictory information on a BLM Facebook page. I also said something to the effect of “black dads matter,” as well as facts regarding Michael Brown. It was like a sack of hornets converging with bizarre and shrill accusations galore from regulars on the site.

A few days ago, my Facebook account was suspended. I was informed that my account was suspended until I provided evidence that I was who I said I was. They required a scan either my driver’s license, my birth certificate, or mail of a utility bill with my name and address on it. I’ve had the account for years.

What this means is, unless I dox myself for Facebook, so they can keep a record of me, for future use, my account cannot be cancelled, and can never be used again. All my posts, email messages, Facebook messages, photographs will remain with Facebook, as property of Facebook.

This also means Facebook can cite me as one of their users, even though I cannot cancel the account, which I would if they’d allow it.

This being the case, I’m hard put to figure out how Scott Zuckerberg isn’t a functional sociopath.

This is because he seems to be saying, “if you post anything against any political theory of mine, I will dox you, so that I can have leverage over you in the future, should it ever come to that. In the meantime, what you’ve posted so far, I own and control for good.”

Again, I didn’t post anything on the BLM pity page besides a differing opinion, as well as contradictory citations.

* I post all kinds of chauvinist, sexist, misogynist and racist stuff on my FB page and I’m still waiting for the FBI to knock on my door.
When I troll leftists sites, I make sure to report each and every asshole who calls me names. So far, it works.

* Maybe Thiel will help you file suit against him for billions.

Or maybe you can contact writers over at Breitbart. They would probably like to cover it. Once they do, Drudge can link.

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Hillary’s Volunteer Auxiliary Thought Police

Comments at Steve Sailer:

* The linked-to article explains something I was wondering about: “Super PACs are typically prohibited from working in tandem with candidates, but Correct the Record is doing just that by exploiting a loophole in campaign finance law that it says permits such coordination with digital campaigns.”

What does this look like from the viewpoint of the hasbara hireling? How do you get hired? How much do you get paid? Can you work simultaneously for Hillary and for Donald? Are there any production quotas? Can a hasbarista achieve distinction by churning out the most Stakhanov-like output?

* Pres. Garfield’s assassin sounds like a message board troll:

Charles Guiteau turned to politics after failing in several ventures, including theology, a law practice, bill collecting, and time in the utopian Oneida Community.

Guiteau’s speech, even in written form, was ineffective. Among other problems, his hurried effort to replace references to Grant with references to Garfield was incomplete. But Guiteau convinced himself that this speech was largely responsible for Garfield’s narrow victory over Democratic nominee Winfield S. Hancock.

* Orwell envisioned that the ultimate police state would control all information flow and delete anything bad for the state. That may be the case. However, if you can’t control the information, and your opponent has some strong facts on their side, the next best thing is to so saturate the market with conflicting information/opinions/talking points that your opponents’ argument/facts get lost in the cacophony of “who can really know what’s true?”

Flood the playing field so everything gets too muddy to sort out. Game gets called on account of rain. If you were losing anyway, that kind of tie is really a win.

I remember an old Star Trek:The Next Generation episode (might have even had a guest appearance by Dr. Spock). The Bad Aliens were planning on invading Planet X via some convoluted means, and the Bad Alien Leader revealed the plans to captured Federation guys in a classic Bond Villain/Supervillain exposition .

The plan involved the Bad Aliens sending some false information to the planet in a fake emergency scenario. The Federation guy says that Planet X was too smart and wouldn’t believe such false information. The Bad Alien guy counters: “We don’t need them to believe us. We just need them to be confused long enough to carry out our plan.”

That’s pretty much how hasbara-type campaigns work. They don’t need you to believe their counterattacks, just to be confused as to what actually is going on via a lot of white noise and double talk until the average joe just throws up his hands and walks away. It’s how the Clintons have gotten away with a lot of their scandals: her and her changing stories and multiple different witnesses contradicting each other make it really hard to tell what happened, and the average joe loses interest.

A good prosecutor could, in fact, make it make sense. Or it could fall apart if a defendant had an ounce of shame. Unfortunately, neither has occurred with the Clintons.

* Hasbara tactics may not be effective as propaganda but they may serve another purpose. By flooding comment forums with insulting ad hominem or off topic posts they discourage others from commenting or even have the comment forum shut down.

* I was talking with my kids today about what motivates politicians: I said that I thought lots of low-level hacks were motivated largely by money, but that really top-level people — President, Secretary of State, etc. — were motivated largely by ideology.

But then, on second thought, I stopped myself and admitted that the Clintons seem to be motivated largely by money.

White trash never really stops being white trash.

* So, now we can honestly say that there are two sorts of online supporters of Hillary: Some are getting paid for prostituting themselves. And, some just give it away for free.

* Good points about confusing people with different theories and allegations. The information genie is out of the bottle, and societies where the government could keep people in the dark are gone forever. So the only option is to confuse them with a blizzard of contradictory information. That’s why I’m put off conspiracy theories about the JFK assassination, 9/11, etc. There are so many theories to choose from, most of them ludicrously implausible, and I don’t have the time or the energy to sift through the rubbish to find the more reasonable ones.

* Hasbara is inefficient and gets annoying quickly.

Obviously a loon (as determined by prison psychologist Lisa Feldman) but he inadvertently exposed that there’s a more efficient cyber strategy than the traditional haranguing.

Wikipedia: Joshua Ryne Goldberg (born 1994 or 1995) is an American internet troll, who was arrested by the U.S. government for allegedly distributing information about bomb-making techniques as part of an attempt to incite acts of Islamist terrorism on the 14th anniversary of the September 11 attacks. He reportedly did this by posing as a Lebanese-Australian jihadist affiliated with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or ISIS).[1][2][3]

Goldberg first received widespread media attention under his alleged Twitter handle “Australi Witness” following the Curtis Culwell Center attack, a terrorist attack on a Garland, Texas exhibit featuring images of Muhammad in May 2015, in which two assailants died in a shootout with police. The “Australi Witness” persona, had, posing as a Perth jihadist, called for an attack on, and posted maps of, the center where the exhibit was taking place, and praised the jihadist attackers in its aftermath, and was retweeted by one of the assailants before the attack.[4] His trial was suspended after it emerged that he had previously been diagnosed with schizophrenia and anxiety disorder as part of a long history of mental illness, and he was found incompetent to stand trial[5] pending efforts by doctors to return him to competence.

* Bernie Sanders is not what we would call a: rational actor. His campaign was more of a barnstorming tour for socialism, rather than a serious candidacy.

Consider that for the first time since Debs, a socialist was a major contender for President. The stigma of the USSR is gone for millennials.

Despite the Bern’s tenuous relationship with the Democratic Party, he’s not going to undermine the left’s pain train of identity politics. A Trump presidency is the closest any of us have ever dreamed of reaching an immigration shutdown.

* A few weeks ago, I posted contradictory information on a BLM Facebook page. I also said something to the effect of “black dad’s matter,” as well as facts regarding Michael Brown. It was like a sack of hornets converging with bizarre and shrill accusations galore from regulars on the site.

A few days ago, my Facebook account was suspended. I was informed that my account was suspended until I provided evidence that I was who I said I was. They required a scan either my driver’s license, my birth certificate, or mail of a utility bill with my name and address on it. I’ve have the account for years.

What this means is, unless I dox myself for Facebook, so they can keep a record of me, for future use, my account cannot be cancelled, and can never be used again. All my posts, email messages, Facebook messages, photographs will remain with Facebook, as property of Facebook.

This also means Facebook can cite me as one of their users, even though I cannot cancel the account, which I would if they’d allow it.

This being the case, I’m hard put to figure out how Scott Zuckerberg isn’t a functional sociopath.

This is because he seems to be saying, “if you post anything against any political theory of mine, I will dox you, so that I can have leverage over you in the future, should it ever come to that. In the meantime, what you’ve posted so far, I own and control for good.”

Again, I didn’t post anything on the BLM pity page besides a differing opinion, as well as contradictory citations.

* #1. Bill Clinton told a long-time lover, and she put it in a book, that she had the baby only because somebody told her it was the only way she was going to be a president some day.

(A British paper in 1992 wrote that the big money boys told Bill back in Arkansas that they would back him, but he had to quit snorting first. Maybe that’s why Jerry Brown never made that run?)

* When I was at Rutgers, I saw a number of advertisements posted for paid social activist positions, though not specifically for online spots. Libs have to fake the grassroots aspect of so many of their positions, because they’re not really anywhere near as popular among the masses as the media would have you believe- its all superficial posturing “a mile wide and an inch deep” as the saying goes.

* How come the phrase “white trash” is never used for other races, ethnicities, etc?

In other words, why is “trash” coupled with white, when whites are pretty much responsible for a lot of good in the world in various fields of endeavors?

That’s a fair question. And, uh, don’t other races and ethnicities have trash in their midsts?

* You have to talk about Tim Kaine’s first speech as Clinton’s VP. First, he switched between English and Spanish. Second, a huge portion was about how his father in law, the Republican governor of Virginia, sent his children to integrated schools. Then when he became governor he and his wife followed their lead with his children, because he wasn’t going to have one rule for himself and one for the rest of the people.

He also spent a year in Honduras during missionary work, and has spent a lifetime suing private interests for “discriminating” against blacks.

The word “cuck” is not strong enough. The man is the most repulsive politician I have seen in a long time.

* A couple months ago the Taki’s comments became little more than two or three new people constantly accusing established regulars of being hasbara. It got tiresome quickly.

In fact now that I think about it that’s how I ended up here — because the comments are moderated. It’s almost like we need a border and some enforcement to have nice things?

There’s a metaphor in there somewhere…

* People have not thought through what’s going to happen if Hillary is elected. We’d be having three women–Hilary, Huma, and Cheryl Mills–who have been threatened with prosecution and jail, seizing the reins of power. In other words, they’re paranoid, scared, angry, and out for revenge. This is a unique situation. We’ve never had anything like this happen before in American politics. A psychiatrist would tell you that anyone, no matter who they are, would be traumatized and radicalized by such an experience. People in this frame of mind became capable of doing anything in their quest to protect themselves. They become capable of extremes of behavior way outside the norm. If you know ancient Roman history, you can guess what’s going to happen.

First, the FBI is going to be gutted. Any agent working on their investigation is going to be cashiered, and I think it’s possible the agents will be smeared, framed, and jailed themselves. Hillary will want all threats neutralized one way or another. All the evidence against Hillary and her aides will be destroyed permanently. Second, any government worker who is not a Hillary supporter is going to be kicked out of their job. If you thought Trump was going to clean them out, just wait and see what a paranoid Hillary does. Our current government is stuffed with Obamabots. They have no loyalty to Hillary, and she knows it. She also knows that it was with the Obama administration’s approval that she was investigated. The Obama people didn’t support her in the primary in 2008, and they don’t support her now. She’s never forgotten or forgiven this. Everyone knows why she had an independent server set up in a closet. She didn’t trust Obama farther than she could throw him, and she didn’t want him getting hold of any ammunition to use against her when she was Secretary of State.

Hillary isn’t going to want anyone writing tell-all books about her after she’s out of office, or giving any evidence to any committee that can be used to prosecute her for impeachment, or blacken her name after she’s out of office. The entire government is going to be turned inside out and stuffed with Hillarybots. And if you thought Republicans had it hard under Obama, just wait and see what Hillary does. She’s going to go all Nixon on her enemies’ tax returns. She’s seen that no one has been able to stop Obama from doing this, so she knows she has complete freedom to copy him. She’ll use every lever of power she can against her enemies. Remember, she’s angry, paranoid, and out for revenge. She’ll do this and many other filthy deeds without hesitation. If she doesn’t hesitate about killing people in the Middle East, she’s not going to care about you.

But keep in mind she could go much farther than the scenarios above. She’s always been arrogant. She thinks she’s pure and high-minded, and she’s convinced her enemies are genuinely evil and out to get her (remember the right-wing Republican conspiracy she loves to talk about? She was paranoid long before the current investigation into her server) and she thinks Republicans deserve what they get. To her, that justifies every bad thing that happens to them, no matter how illegal or immoral.

She must be stopped.

* Payola is common in conservative media. A few years ago some “conservative” got jammed up for talking money from Malaysia to promote Malaysia in their “opinion” pieces. Both parties have guys at the various sites who will follow orders. The Wikileakes scandal everyone in media is ignoring is pretty funny. Some of these pens for hire are nothing more than rentboys.

The Official Right is loaded with these stuff. The Wilkes Brothers are in bed with a number of outlets. I think they are bankrolling Beck and Erickson. They had Ben Shapiro on their payroll during the primary.

* Trump’s Luck has been pretty remarkable of late.

The news events immediately leading up to the RNC and immediately after it were a perfect storm seemingly designed to impress on the American people the reality and importance of the positions Trump took in his speech.

Apart from election time itself, there may be no more propitious time for events to make a message resonate and register than in the introduction of a Presidential candidate in his convention speech. It will leave a long lasting impression almost no matter how the news of the remainder of the cycle plays out — though, at this time, it’s pretty hard to believe that we won’t be seeing a good deal of the same sort of things going forward.

* In UK politics/media there are various talking heads who are billed as internet savvy types when seen on TV or interviewed on the radio. But when you visit their blogs, Twitter, Youtube channels it’s a wasteland, few views, few comments (if any), most of them crap. The alt-right equivalents are powerhouses by comparison, except of course that none of their big players will be allowed within 6 million miles of TV or radio.

I’m thinking of people like Owen Jones and Laurie Penny.

* The original saying was the William Jennings Bryan was like the River Platte in his native Nebraska, “two miles wide at the mouth and about six inches deep.”

The problem on the internet is that the change in what is supposed to be the “big issue”, “major problem”, “existential crisis” or what have you changes radically every three or four days, in accordance with normal news cycles. Nobody can pretend to be experts in all of these disparate fields, but if you are a journalist or an official talking head / egghead, you are still required to opine authoritatively on all of it.

What is really needed is fractional personal knowledge and/or some personal quantum of expert knowledge, which, in the aggregate, can add up to something useful. That is why comments sections are frequently valuable.

The other thing that would be really useful is a detailed study of what the problem is, presented in a manner that is at least trying to be balanced, that is much less common and would require one to be “off line” for an extended period. Amateurs can do that. Professionals rarely.

* When you consider the leverage effect of the fact that iSteve commentators are le creme of the online intelligentsia; and that every comment that goes forth from here probably inspires 100 men to comment elsewhere on the internet, the very impressive figure of 1000 comments starts to look colossal.

* “But the Robbins response confirmed a well-established rule of social media: The kind of confrontations Correct the Record is manufacturing almost never win converts.”

But they could be useful in silencing dissent, which I’m sure is the point. Who wants to spend hours replying to dozens of paid trolls? Most people will conclude that it isn’t worth the effort to express an opinion that could lead to such a reaction. Just make an example out of a few celebrities, then presto, no more dissenting opinions.

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