Indefensible: The Missing Truth about Steven Avery, Teresa Halbach, and Making a Murderer

I’ve changed my mind on this case. I now think that Steven Avery did it and that the compelling Netflix documentary Making a Murderer was deceitful.

Wisconsin prosecutor Michael Griesbach writes in this 2016 book:

Prison records corroborate the fact that Avery was and would continue to be a danger to society upon his release. Eight years into his sentence, in 1993 he described himself succinctly to his caseworker at the prison in an “ORDER TERMINATING RESPONDENT’S PERIODS OF PHYSICAL PLACEMENT AND RETAINING MONITORED CONTACT BY TELEPHONE AND CORRESPONDENCE.” The caseworker’s notes read: He describes himself as an impulsive man, a person who acts out of anger, an individual who possibly would be better off if he thought before he acted.
The caseworker believed that Avery was in need of serious help but pointed out that he wasn’t willing to assist in his rehabilitation.
Mr. Avery is an individual who has significant needs, and perhaps of most concern to me is that fact that he is not involved in any programming as a result of his own choice.
Programs that would provide him with insights into parenting skills; hopefully tools to deal with the type of anger flashes that flare up in a [sic] domestic violence; anger management programs; sexual treatment; sexual behavior programs. They are all available as well as academic programming, in the institution.
Avery’s risk factors multiplied when he got out. No longer residing under the structure of a carefully regimented prison system where behavior is strictly monitored and opportunities to offend are minimized, he faced a whole new set of challenges upon his release. Not least among them was his choice of where to live. His decision to move into an ice shanty when winter arrived is a case in point. After living eighteen years in an eight-by-twelve prison cell, perhaps he felt the need for confinement. Its close quarters made it feel just like home: “I wanted somethin’ small,” he told a reporter, “everything was, I don’t know, just too big. It didn’t feel right.”
* * *
Continuing to explore what may have motivated Avery to commit such a heinous crime, I moved forward to the last time he made an appointment with Teresa prior to the day she disappeared. What was he thinking with regard to Halbach when she snapped a picture of a Grand Prix that he was selling just weeks before she died?
It had been less than two months since his fiancée, Jodi, who later informed police that they were accustomed to having sex every day, and sometimes multiple times per day, was incarcerated. On his desk Avery had copies of a picture of his erect penis, along with a note ( back to patio door ) and another with Teresa Halbach’s personal cell phone number. He came out to do business with her while he was dressed “just in a towel,” which concerned her enough to at least mention it to a coworker shortly after it occurred. Driven perhaps by the same kind of madness that led to his drawing of a torture chamber in prison and comments he made to other inmates, he bought handcuffs and leg irons the day before her visit, just a short time before she was murdered. Jodi would not be released from jail for months, and Barb Janda told police she didn’t think the handcuffs and leg irons were intended for Jodi—begging the question, then whom were they for?
Fast-forward to the night before Halbach disappeared. Avery called his nephew’s ex-girlfriend and invited her over so they could “have some fun,” suggesting that they could have sex and “have the bed hit the wall real hard.” Presumably, he was referring to the same bed upon which he tortured, raped, and murdered Teresa Halbach less than twenty-four hours later. If this isn’t proof of motive and intent, I don’t know what is.
The next morning, at eight-twelve a.m., Avery concealed his identity when he called Auto Trader magazine and asked for “the same girl they sent last time.” The receptionist wasn’t sure if the caller was a male or a female, as the voice was too hard to understand. He left a name with an ambiguous gender, “B. Janda,” and gave Barb’s telephone number instead of his own, even though he was the one planning to meet the photographer.
Why didn’t he call Halbach directly, as he had done on the prior occasion when he called her for a hustle shot? He obviously had her phone number. Why go through the Auto Trader receptionist unless he didn’t want Halbach, who he’d upset on the previous appointment, to know he was calling?
After I considered all these facts, it seemed clear to me that the overriding motive behind Avery’s actions was to act upon his perverse satisfaction from engaging in physical violence and unwanted sexual aggression, without a whit of remorse or concern for the harm he inflicted upon his victims.

…given the violent and sexually deviant conduct he engaged in from his young adulthood to the very night before he murdered Teresa Halbach as set forth in the state’s “other acts” motion, it’s hard to conclude with any level of confidence that he wouldn’t. His sexual deviancy knew no bounds and never lay dormant, not even in prison, where he told fellow inmates of his violent plans regarding women when he was released.
On March 9, 2006, police interviewed a former cellmate of Steven Avery. He was no longer incarcerated and therefore had no expectation of a reduced sentence if he provided information. Ex-con Ronald Rieckhoff spoke with Investigator Gary Steier from Calumet County in a telephone interview that was summarized as follows:
RIECKHOFF indicated he had seen the news in which inmates had been telling the police that AVERY had shown them a torture chamber on a piece of paper. RIECKHOFF indicated he was in prison with STEVEN AVERY in STANLEY PRISON in the Wausau area and had spoken to STEVEN approximately 20 times. RIECKHOFF indicated he was in Unit 3 and AVERY was in Unit 2, but he would talk to STEVEN AVERY in the recreation field and in the prison library. RIECKHOFF indicated STEVEN hated all women and would resort to the saying about women, find them, feel them, fuck them, forget them.
At approximately 3:30 p.m., I (Inv. STEIER) again had telephonic contact with RONALD RIECKHOFF. RONALD stated he had been in prison with STEVEN AVERY since 2001 and had spoken with STEVEN approximately 20 times while he was in prison. RIECKHOFF stated he was a paralegal and from time to time AVERY would ask him questions. RIECKHOFF stated STEVEN AVERY had told him he wanted to kill that young bitch that had set him up for the rape when he got out. RIECKHOFF again stated he would talk to STEVEN AVERY in the recreation field or in the prison library. RIECKHOFF again indicated in RIECKHOFF’s words, he hated all bitches, he hated all women. RIECKHOFF again reiterated STEVEN’s comment to him, I’ll find them, feel them, fuck them, forget them.
Years later, long after Avery was convicted of Halbach’s murder, Jodi Stachowski’s words to Nancy Grace concerning Avery’s attitude toward women revealed that he was true to his word after his release: “We all owed him,” Jodi explained, “and he could do whatever he wanted.”

* After watching Making a Murderer, I viewed the entire four-hours March 1, 2006, video taped interrogation of Brendan Dassey. It was painful to say the least. Here are my observations, which I’ll state in an overview first and then in detail:
Brendan was not physically hurt. He was not physically threatened. In fact, his interrogators never raised their voices. In a nutshell, Investigator Mark Wiegert and Special Agent Thomas Fassbender, sometimes unfairly dubbed “Liegert” and “Fact-bender” by critics, did not force, threaten, hurt, or yell at Brendan. They offered him breaks, snacks, and drinks to keep him comfortable.

* “As I was talking with Kayla, she stated to me that her cousin, Brendan who had been burning things with Steven on Halloween night had been acting up lately. I asked Kayla what she meant by him acting up to which she stated Brendan would just sit there and stare into space and start crying. Kayla also told me that Brendan had lost approximately 40 lbs. since this all started a couple of months ago. Kayla and her mother CANDY, both told me at that time they both remember seeing the bonfire by STEVEN’s house on Halloween night. Kayla and CANDY had stopped by Kayla’s grandmother’s, Delores, on Halloween night and they remember seeing the fire down by Steven’s trailer.”

Police spoke to Brendan Dassey a week later. During that interview it quickly became clear to the officers that he knew something about Teresa Halbach’s murder. They knew that he was helping his uncle burn garbage in a fire that night, and they thought that he might have seen something in the fire.

* Making a Murderer spliced the video so that viewers didn’t see the rest of Brendan Dassey’s responses showing he knew what kind of gun Avery used, and how many times he shot Halbach in the head, which was not public knowledge and even the police didn’t know that then. Investigators did not find out until later that there were two confirmed entrance defects on two different pieces of Halbach’s skull.

* Dassey’s statement that they placed Halbach’s body in the RAV4 also explains why splotches of her blood were found in the back of the vehicle, which was consistent with the scenario of her body being placed in the back of the vehicle with blood in her hair. Also, Avery’s DNA on the hood latch was not found until Dassey told the police that Avery had opened the hood, although Dassey could not say why.
It seems, then, that at least some portions of Dassey’s confession are true.

* Kayla Avery was just fourteen when Dassey told her at a birthday party in December 2005, less than two months after Halbach’s death, that he had seen Teresa Halbach “pinned up” in Steven Avery’s trailer. She told police that her cousin “had gotten very shook up” after telling her that he had seen this and then observing the bones in the fire.

* By its skillful use of film and sound techniques and omission of facts that belied its conclusion, Making a Murderer has all but convicted two intelligent, honest, and well-respected police officers of planting evidence to frame Avery a second time. This is a narrative now widely accepted by legions of Netflix viewers whose only familiarity with the Avery case is the documentary itself.
Transformed into would-be jurors, who are cleverly manipulated by an all-knowing judge in the form of the documentarians, viewers are shown only one side of the evidence. The prosecution’s refutation of evidence-planting claims during cross-examination and rebuttal—the “truth-seeking machinery” of jury trials, as one legal scholar put it—is minimal. Avery’s criminal history is deconstructed beyond credulity. His lighting a cat afire after dousing it with gasoline when he was twenty years old is passed off as an accident while horsing around with friends. He didn’t intend to cause any harm to his neighbor after he ran her off the road and held her at gunpoint. As Making a Murderer would have it, he did so because the woman was spreading rumors about him. Never mind that he had been using a pair of binoculars to watch her for weeks, sexually gratifying himself as she drove by. I had to admit, though, I was impressed. The skill with which the documentarians made light of Avery’s criminal history rivaled that of seasoned criminal defense attorneys whom I have seen turn sinners into saints countless times at sentencing.
Nor are viewers informed of the handcuffs and leg irons found by police in Avery’s trailer home after the murder. There was no evidence he used the items on the day Teresa Halbach disappeared, but they were in keeping with what appears to have been on his mind in the days leading up to her murder. Left out, too, was his sketch of a “torture chamber” and his fantasizing to fellow inmates about using it to sexually assault and murder young women when he got out, foretelling the atmosphere surrounding his real victim’s final hour.
Clinging to claims of objectivity, the documentarians have pointed out that truth is elusive in the Steven Avery case, which is true enough. However, by excluding facts that don’t fit their aim and manipulating others, they have distorted the truth beyond recognition and have decided for the rest of us what we are to believe. “High-brow vigilante justice” is how columnist Kathryn Schulz put it in her column about the documentary in The New Yorker (“Dead Certainty”). To which I respond, “Right on.”

Posted in Eroticized Rage, Murder | Comments Off on Indefensible: The Missing Truth about Steven Avery, Teresa Halbach, and Making a Murderer

The Nightmare Of Intellectuals: Public Policy Falling To The People (8-26-22)

00:30 Conservative Claims of Cultural Oppression: The Nature and Origins of Conservaphobia
02:20 Tucker Carlson vs the FBI & American elites
53:00 ‘Most Americans are choosing to live a normal life in abnormal times’
1:05:40 Andy Nowicki: The problems with Richard Spencer and Colin Liddell in 2022
1:28:00 Andy Nowicki: Colin Liddell shamelessly shills for warmongers

Posted in America | Comments Off on The Nightmare Of Intellectuals: Public Policy Falling To The People (8-26-22)

The Cynical Genius Illusion: Exploring and Debunking Lay Beliefs About Cynicism and Competence

From this 2019 paper:

* Cross-cultural analyses showed that competent individuals held contingent attitudes and endorsed cynicism only if it was warranted in a given sociocultural environment. Less competent individuals embraced cynicism unconditionally, suggesting that—at low levels of competence—holding a cynical worldview might represent an adaptive default strategy to avoid the potential costs of falling prey to others’ cunning.

* Cynicism reflects a negative appraisal of human nature, a belief that self-interest is the ultimate motive behind all human actions, even the seemingly good ones, and that people will go to any lengths to satisfy it…

* Holding a cynical view of human nature has been associated with bad health outcomes and increased mortality risks, lower psychological well-being, diminished self-esteem, and reduced economic well-being…

* Even though social observers might think that being too cynical is wiser than being not cynical enough, this belief might not mirror the real associations of cynicism and competence. Indeed, studies using the trust game showed that people typically earned more if they were willing to trust strangers rather than not.

Longitudinal studies corroborated this idea, suggesting that cynical individuals earn lower incomes due to their ineptitude for cooperation, and cynicism might therefore be not that smart in terms of financial success (Stavrova & Ehlebracht, 2016).

Further studies demonstrated that cynicism is more likely to be a worldview endorsed by individuals with lower rather than higher levels of education (Haukkala, 2002; Stavrova & Ehlebracht, 2018) and intelligent individuals’ behavior was shown to be more likely to depart from the norms of selfinterest (Solon, 2014). Higher levels of education and competence in a broader sense might help individuals detect and avoid potential deceit in the first place, thus reducing the probability of negative social experiences, which might in turn contribute to a more positive view of human nature (Yamagishi, Kikuchi, & Kosugi, 1999). Indeed a number of studies showed general cognitive ability to be negatively related to cynical hostility (Barnes et al., 2009; Mortensen, Barefoot, & Avlund, 2012) and positively related to trust..

* Cynical individuals are likely to do worse (rather than better) on cognitive tasks, cognitive abilities, and competencies tests, and tend to be less educated than less cynical individuals.

* when people endorse a cynical stance concerning others and consequently forgo trust, they usually do not even get a chance to learn whether their untrustworthiness assumption was correct and being cynical thus spared them a “loss”—or whether it was incorrect and therefore denied them a “win.” In other words, cynicism often precludes the possibility of experiencing negative outcomes. As a result, it might be perceived as a smarter, more successful strategy and cynical individuals might be attributed higher levels of competence than their less cynical counterparts. After all, they are highly unlikely to be betrayed, deceived, and exploited, whereas it usually remains unknown whether their cynicism resulted in missed opportunities.

Finally, the abundance of smart and witty cynics in fiction might fuel the “cynical genius illusion” as well. As the primary goal of fiction is entertainment, fictional worlds are typically more dangerous, their villains are meaner, and the costs of mistakes are higher than in reality—or, as Barack Obama (2014) put it referring to the House of Cards series: “Life in Washington is a little more boring than displayed on the screen.” In these hostile and dangerous worlds created for our entertainment, cynicism is warranted and often turns out to be essential for survival, suggesting that those who endorse it are likely to be the smart ones. Our cross-cultural
analyses indirectly support this idea, showing that the negative association between competence and cynicism gets
weaker with increasing levels of environmental hostility, such that in the most corrupt countries in our sample, competent individuals are not necessarily less cynical than their less competent counterparts (see Table 4).
This observation inevitably leads to the conclusion that whether the “cynical genius” belief represents an illusion or not must depend on the sociocultural environment.

* the idea of cynical individuals being more competent, intelligent, and experienced than less cynical ones appears to be quite common and widespread, yet, as demonstrated by our estimates of the true empirical associations between cynicism and competence, largely illusory. As Stephan Colbert, an American comedian, writer, and television host, phrased it, “Cynicism masquerades as wisdom, but it is the furthest thing from it.”

Posted in Psychology | Comments Off on The Cynical Genius Illusion: Exploring and Debunking Lay Beliefs About Cynicism and Competence

The Brain has a Mind of its Own: Attachment, Neurobiology and the New Science of Psychotherapy

Jeremy Holmes writes in this 2020 book:

* Energy in FEP [Free Energy Principle] is not a physical phenomenon like heat, or electromagnetic radiation, but a superordinate explanatory category, akin to gravity (cf. Connolly & van Deventer, 2017), with both mental and physical connotations. FEP is a principle or framework for understanding the fundamentals of psychic life, conscious and unconscious, analogous, and not unrelated to, Freud’s pleasure and reality principles.
According to the FEP, the brain’s task is to select from, attend to, shape, and maintain homeostasis in the face of the streams of incoming neural energy from both its sense organs and its interoceptive and proprioceptive internal milieu. It does this by predicting , “top-down”, on the basis of previous experience, the likely meanings of this “bottom-up” input. These predictions follow the mathematics of the eighteenth-century cleric Thomas Bayes, and are thus known as “ Bayesian ”. The ever-changing discrepancies between prediction and sensation, between our generative models of the world and reality, activate Prediction Error Minimisation (PEM), in which the brain “instructs” itself to modify prior models of the world in the light of experience, whereby they become posteriors, and take actions which improve precision, clarify ambiguity, and align input with expectations.
From a psychotherapeutic viewpoint, interoceptions (i.e., bodily feelings) are especially important because they underpin affective life . In general, prediction errors – the discrepancies between what we want/expect and what our senses tell us is the case – are experienced as “bad” or painful, thereby motivating their minimisation. Conversely, when expectation and experience align, we feel “good” or happy. The psychological distress that brings people for psychotherapeutic help can be conceived as chronic states of unresolved prediction error. The aim of psychotherapy is to redress these by mobilising the capacity for action and model revision.
In FEP, energy is either free , or bound . Free energy reflects the ever-changing and potentially chaotic nature of the impact of the environment on the physical, psychological, and interpersonal self. Energy’s role is therefore ambiguous : it provides the vital information and sustenance needed for our evolutionarily derived tasks of adaptation, survival, and reproduction, and arguably forms the basis for creativity, but, unbound, can overwhelm the unprepared nervous system. The need to find and bind free energy is what motivates us, what “makes us tick”, what makes us exploit what we have, and explore and want to know more, and to think up better world models; failure to do so is demotivating, degenerating, and depressing.

* the brain needs to build up a repertoire of survival scenarios in order to match the likely risks with which its owner will be confronted in the course of a lifetime. Prediction error minimisation is continuously finessed against novelty so that we can go through the prior–posterior revision that improves adaptation. Since energy-binding is “rewarding” – via the dopaminergic system – PEM is powerfully motivating. When we are demotivated, or energy-minimising procedures are compromised by defective agency, chronic negative affective states presage psychological illness. Psychotherapy attempts to create the “duet for one” conditions where surprise becomes allowable and ultimately pleasurable – not least, as we shall see, in the form of healing tears.

* Prediction error minimising (PEM) will steer active inference – “Shall I look a little closer to make sure, or assume the worst and run away?” This describes a “secure attachment” response – a balanced attempt to match input with possible generative models of the world. In a UK park the stick is most unlikely to be a snake. In an Indian paddy field, it could well be.
A less secure response would be hyper activation, aka anxious attachment – “Treat all sticks as snakes” – or hypo activation, aka avoidant attachment – “Forget snakes, stick to sticks” – (cf. Mikulincer & Shaver, 2007). Each strategy may be understandable in the individual’s developmental context, but maladaptive in the present moment, the former leading towards anxiety/depression, the latter to potentially fatal risk-taking.

* A further useful, if oversimplified, distinction is between the worlds of people whose predictive dispositions classify them as orchids or dandelions (Boyce, 2019). The former (about 20 per cent in community samples) are hyper-responsive: in favourable environments they flourish, in unfavourable ones they fear they may wither and die. “Dandelions” are relatively insensitive to environmental influence, doing less well than “orchids” in good ones, but are somewhat impervious to unfavourable influences.

[LF: A friend says: I tell people I’m a sports car not a jeep. I’m not all weather, all conditions, reliable. I’m fickle, need maintenance, but if the road is clear, I can make up years of ground on people, but I will get caught in mud, rain. I’m not as resilient as normal people.”]

* Let’s turn to an everyday example of the Bayesian brain in action, hoping, with its help, to link PEM with some familiar psychoanalytic themes.
One fine spring morning, in the course of a daily run across agricultural land, I noticed that the farmer had recently sprayed weedkiller. There was an unpleasant sickly smell, eliciting slight nausea, bringing to mind a mild feeling of illness I’d had at a similar time the previous year. The next day, following the same course, the smell had gone, but I noted in my peripheral vision a dark flapping object. My first thought was that this was a bird, perhaps a crow, affected by yesterday’s poison. I turned my head to engage central vision , then approached to investigate further and if necessary rescue the corvid. The closer I came, however, the putative stricken bird revealed itself to be no more than a fragment of wind-blown black plastic, part of a discarded fertiliser bag.
This trivial incident illustrates a number of FEP and Bayesian principles.
• The stimulus was ambiguous , and therefore subject to high levels of error and potentially “free energy”.
• The “ prior ”, or meaning, attributed to this experience was based on selective sampling in peripheral vision together with recalled interoceptive nausea, leading to a top-down construct of “sick bird”. This memory-based construction of an ambiguous stimulus could be deemed as an example of transference .
• In order to resolve the ambiguity, free energy minimisation (FEM) was required, via a) action – turning my head and moving towards the flapping object in order to reduce “noise”, and increase the precision of sensory sampling, and
b) hypothesis revision – “The poison will have dispelled by today so it would be odd if the bird were still affected”.
• Active inference led to a stable “ posterior ”: a free energy-minimised representation of reality, external (“It’s only flapping plastic”) and internal (“No nausea; no illness”).
• Parsimony had generated two possibilities: sick bird, or plastic bag; the latter prevailed. Flap (surprise) became no-flap. Free energy was once more bound.

* Parents who are good at mentalising tend to have secure infants (Meins, Fernyhough, Fradley, & Tuckey, 2001). They readily put themselves in the child’s shoes, and can see that what from an adult perspective might seem trivial – a mother momentarily inaccessible – to a small child would feel dangerous and trigger abandonment anxiety. Parental mentalising – understanding and resonating with their infants’ affects – is initially non-verbal and implicit, communicated by facial expression, tone of voice, affiliative touch, swinging rhythms of soothing or stimulation. These embodied gestures present a model of the infant and her world from the caregiver’s perspective. This helps the child to integrate primary sensory signals into regularities of emotional and interpersonal meanings.

* People suffering with personality disorders are typically on a hair trigger for overwhelming anxiety (Allen, Fonagy, & Bateman, 2008). For them fast, rather than slow thinking is the norm (Kahneman, 2011). They are in the grip of perceptual distortion and ingrained prediction errors, driven by the need to bind free energy into a modicum of predictability, however dysfunctional. An early psychotherapeutic task is to re-establish a degree of biobehavioural synchrony. The patterns and rhythms of therapy help with this, as do the joint attention and affective mirroring typical of secure attachments. But the more disturbed the individual, the more problematic this is likely to be; such trust remains a fragile and fluctuating flower which varies from session to session and moment to moment within sessions. Identifying, understanding, and overcoming obstacles to biobehavioural synchrony are preconditions for effective psychotherapeutic work.

* PEM underwrites the psychiatric maxim that it is counterproductive to try to argue people out of their delusions. Acceptance of the validity of clients’ experience is a precondition for progress to a higher level of the PEM hierarchy where the possibility of illness can be jointly entertained, without clashing with lower-level faulty inferences.

If psychosis represents dysfunction in topdown prediction error minimisation, FEP sees autism as the converse. Here there is “enslavement to the senses” in which the inherent noisiness of sensory input is discounted. The capacity to contextualise and attend only to relevant input is offline, while mentalising – thinking about thinking – and hence subjecting sensory data to relevance criteria, is in abeyance.

* Psychopathology is conceived in the FEP framework as difficulties with active inference, due to a) impaired agency/action and/or b) failure of model revision in the light of experience. These result from:
1 Over-weighting top-down inference (psychosis)
2 Over-weighting interoceptions (somatisation disorders, depression) or exteroceptions (autism)
3 Paucity of priors (trauma)
4 Repression of interoceptions, making them unavailable for conscious-level PEM (depression)
5 Difficulties with recruiting others in duets for one, and hence go-it-alone maladaptive PEM procedures (substance abuse, suicidal acts, personality disorders)
6 Inappropriate complexity procedures: oversimplistic priors (personality disorders), or failure to reduce complexity and hence inhibition of action (OCD).

* If mental illnesses are diseases of social brains, then it is likely that evolution will have produced both natural and culturally mediated repair systems to reverse or mitigate them. In order to stave off entropy, living systems have evolved defences which help resist chaos, maintain structure, and enhance adaptation and survival (Connolly, 2018). In humans defences operate “all the way up”, from the cellular level of the immune system, through the interpersonal attachment dynamic, to societal structures, ranging from social care to tidal barriers and military hardware. These, like the systems they are designed to protect, are initially involuntary and automatic but, prosthetically enhanced, become goal-directed societal formations. We share our immune system with fellow mammals, but the epidemiology of high-density communities, urbanisation, and migration mean that we need vaccination and immunisation programmes to augment our capacity to outwit disease.

* From an FEP perspective, dreaming helps rework potentially traumatic free energy so that the associated terror can be “bound” and its concomitant mental pain made more tolerable and less disruptive. Top-down inferences, capable of linguistic representation, “bind” the energy associated with likely future fears – moving, changing, aging. By generating multivalent free-energy minimising priors they reduce prediction error. There is no escaping the emotional pain of loss, separation, and death, but if (to adapt Kipling) those “impostors” can be “met” with top-down priors, they will safeguard against, or at least postpone, entropic surprise.

* As one novice therapist breathlessly announced during her coffee break, “I’ve finally realised that transference is real: my first patient today described me as a hideous witch; the second said I was a beautiful angel.”

[LF: Reactions to Tony Fauci are often transference for people’s feelings about government bureaucratic power. Liberals generally approve while conservatives don’t.]

* For cooperation to be effective we need to take account of the viewpoints and motivations of others, and likewise to factor in our own psychology and how it will be perceived by our fellow co-operators. Again, this is typically implicit and below consciousness. It is a remarkable fact of urban life that opposing pedestrians in busy streets rarely bump into one another: walkers make unconscious predictions about the direction of travel of others and self and all runs smoothly.

* First, an “event” – for instance, a client’s outburst of explicit or covert anger triggered by a therapist’s holiday break, occupying no more than moments of clock time, may lead to extended collaborative reflection. Second, the discussion is likely to attend to “much previous” comparable interpersonal experience. The aim is to identify and modify both bottom-up and topdown procedures. Enhanced sensory sampling means that the client begins to tease out differences and the automatic assumptions these evoke, such as between a therapeutic break with a high probability of resumption, and a childhood history of being arbitrarily “dropped” by a divorcing parent. This scrutiny, if things go well, can lead to more realistic model revision about the nonirreversibility of losses.

* Avoidant clients, with intellectual defences, are both resistant to, and likely to benefit from encouragement to free associate. With their co-regulatory sensitive period reopened, they can explicitly think about repressed feelings and fears, which no longer have to be minimised for the sake of security. As in the Coan (2016) study, the potential for disruptive free energy associated with avoided feelings is mitigated by the therapist’s calm presence. Conversely, those with anxious attachment strategies typically feel overwhelmed by the uprush of interoceptive bodily feelings. Here the job of free association is to slow things down so they can be identified and subjected to rational top-down scrutiny (“Could we consider the possibility that that horrible stomach pain you get whenever your husband goes on a trip doesn’t necessarily spell gut cancer?”).

* Therapists help their clients to own their actions, and to become better able to differentiate those for which they are responsible from those in which they were victims, and thus to develop feelings of autonomy and enhanced control over their lives.

* From an FEP perspective, insecure attachments are vulnerability factors for psychological illness because they compromise active inference (Holmes & Slade, 2017). In the absence of an external or internal secure base, exploration, physical and psychological, is curtailed. This both limits the extent and range of sensory sampling of the environment, and the variety of priors or hypotheses available to account for them. Both the “breaking” (i.e., creative destruction) of existing priors and the “making” (i.e., creative construction) of new ones are inhibited (Holmes, 2010).
In anxious or “hyperactivating” attachment, agency tends to be absent or eroded. Rather than actively searching or changing their environment, sufferers remain passive in the face of loss, conflict, or trauma (Knox, 2010), a state famously described as “learned helplessness” (Maier & Seligman, 2016). Here the self is suffused with unmodulated affect. In terms of structure learning, commitment to the single prior of hopelessness (energy binding, but paralysing) – “Nothing I do will change anything” – precludes finding ways to live productively in the environment in which sufferers find themselves, and inhibits the testing of alternative hypotheses (“Maybe if I try this, things won’t be so bad after all”).

* Consider the tennis player John McEnroe’s famous challenge to the umpire: “ You cannot be serious ” in calling a ball “out” that the player was convinced was “in”. Pre-Hawk-Eye, an FEP-informed umpire might argue: “Neither of us can be absolutely certain whether that ball was on or off the line. Perceptions are inherently subject to error. Tennis balls fly faster than nerve impulses transmit. Your error minimisation procedure is informed by your interoceptive signals of desire to win the match. Your fury is an acting out of that desire, a manifestation of energy unbound. I on the other hand have no vested interest in who wins this game. My error minimisation procedure is fueled neither by amygdala-driven fear of failure, nor wish for dopaminergic reward. The rules of tennis require that you borrow my brain in inherently ambiguous circumstances such as this. My final and considered decision therefore is – the ball was out!”

The word conversation itself, with its implication of both togetherness (“con”) and opposition (“versus”), points to the essence of the psychotherapeutic project: acceptance – and challenge. The etymology of the word “conversation” includes the ideas of a) home, and b) sexual intercourse. Both bear on the work of psychotherapy. By providing a “home” – in attachment terms a secure base or holding environment – therapists offer the sense of safety and attention needed to explore and rework one’s deepest dispositions. “Sexuality” taken as a metaphor points to the arousal of intersubjectivity, mutuality, complementarity, and somatopsychic excitement which therapy must call into being if more complex psychic structures are to be generated.
If sex is a conversation, and conversation a form of sex, so too is attachment.

* Clients suffering from depression are conceptualised as being in the thrall of cognitive errors which dominate their affective world: “Everyone hates me”, “I am useless”, etc. These self-perpetuating, albeit spuriously parsimonious generalisations bind free energy, but also undermine agency. Passive helplessness pervades, interspersed with self-perpetuating depressive auto-denigration. CBT encourages its clients to see these negative views as “hypotheses”, in need of active testing through “experiments”. Action is thereby encouraged, with the hand-holding help of a therapist, enhancing sensory precision and reducing prediction error. When things go well, depressive priors begin to be revised in the light of experience: “Maybe I’m not such a failure as I thought I was”.
In psychoanalytic therapies the role of “action” is less explicit. But the very act of seeking help for psychological difficulties implies a degree of agency. Moreover, the process of “giving sorrow words” in the therapeutic setting, if seen in terms of speech acts, is agency-enhancing. By helping clients find the words to actualise their inchoate feelings, therapists help with the error minimisation that is, in Bernard’s terms, the condition of a free life. Expressing negative affect, with its concomitant enhancement of attention to interceptive detail, is especially conducive to reworking dysfunctional priors.

* To recall an incident from the author’s training, he was observing a young woman with anorexia nervosa being interviewed by a senior psychiatrist. In an interchange that lasted for five minutes or more, the following interchange was repeated over and over:
Interviewer: “Do you worry about your appearance?”

Patient: “Oh, no they’re fine, I never think about my parents” … etc., etc.

* The “conversational model” or “psychodynamic interpersonal therapy” (PIT) (Barkham, Guthrie, Hardy, & Margison, 2017) specifically foregrounds the therapeutic role of dialogue strategies. A prime therapeutic aim is to help clients develop a “feeling language” with which to give form to their inchoate sufferings. In the course of treatment patients learn to listen to their bodily sensations, and to find words with which to express, manage, and live with them. This corresponds with helping to overcome the interoception/generative model deficit, especially found in avoidant clients. Attention to the “minute particulars” of experience is emphasised, especially insofar as they are salient to the specific affordances of an individual’s life.

* An important psychotherapeutic implication of FEP is that in its mission to minimise surprise, as a proxy for entropy or free energy, the brain/mind can diminish or obliterate complexity and differentiation. The relational bedrock of psychotherapy helps clients tolerate and survive surprise , and so find new and more healthy ways of binding mental energy.

PAPER:

The binding of free energy equates to the resolution of prediction errors (i.e., surprise and uncertainty). Thus, the conversion of free into bound energy results from belief-updating to increase the accuracy–or decrease the complexity–associated with our beliefs about the world’s states of affairs.

In sum, Friston maintains that the brain’s main aim is to minimize “surprise”–as best it can.

Prediction error is minimized in two main ways:

Action, which reduces prediction errors by selectively sampling sensations that are the least surprising,6 thereby helping to approximate the organism to its environmental niche, or affordance (see below).
Perception. Changed perceptions follow from belief updating resulting in more reality-consonant predictions.

* We will touch on a number of key features of the analytic approach: free association, dreams, sexuality, reflective discourse, transference, and mentalising. All depend on “decoupling”–introducing a degree of “play” into the bottom-up/top-down surprise-minimizing articulations of everyday life (c.f., Holmes and Slade, 2017). In the presence of a modulating, moderating, affect-buffering therapist, surprise/energy unbound becomes tolerable and, when therapeutically scrutinized, extends the repertoire and range of a person’s counterfactual realities, i.e., priors. Built into this model is both “creativity” and “destruction,” in the sense that modification of error-prone priors entails their replacement with alternative hypotheses. The greater the range of prior hypotheses, the greater the opportunities for error-minimized binding and the less the need to resort to rigid, limited, or anachronistic priors, at the different levels of a hierarchy of generative models. This, in turn, enhances the adaptedness of the sufferer to their environment, including, via mentalising, the self. Part of the process makes the patient’s model more accurate by revised belief-formation, and part by complexity reduction, especially in relation to resolution of conflict and trauma.

* From a free energy perspective, psychological ill health implies simplistic top-down models, and/or restricted sensory sampling, while structured complexity, as opposed to chaos or rigidity, is a mark of psychological health. Psychotherapy aims to increase the repertoire of its subjects’ models of themselves and their environment. It is no mean task for analysts to challenge their patients, to break the mold of maladaptive energy binding, and to move psychic structures toward this augmented complexity.

* Analyzing transcripts of psychotherapy sessions, they show how the nature of therapeutic dialogue depends on the attachment status of both client and therapist. Securely attached clients–and therapists–engage in turn-taking “duets,” in which there is contact seeking, free exchange and modulation of affect and ideas. By contrast, insecurely attached people typically rebuff mutative speech acts. Their dialogue tends to be non-relational, with little affect-modulation, frequent backtracking, and repetitive interactive patterns.

The partial or occasionally total impasse created by these insecure speech patterns then becomes the focus of therapy. Painful affects–anxiety or misery–signal prediction errors, misalignment between wish and reality. But rather than leading to change, these become chronic and embedded. Psychotherapy mobilizes the active inference needed to resolve the impasse. The therapist enjoins the client to look at–mentalise–what is happening between them. Knowing that his or her hand is being metaphorically held, and that energy binding can be temporarily left to the therapist, the client can become more adventurous. In “duet for one” moments, initially fleetingly, therapist and client “sing” in ways that pertain to each and neither participant. Classical analytic geometry may encourage this–prone, in the absence of visual contact, patients take their analysts as part of themselves, drawing on the other’s “priors”–i.e., verbal “interpretations”–to widen the range of available top-down models of the world and its possibilities.

ESSAY:

* We live in an entropic universe. Broken cups don’t spontaneously reassemble. Coffee cools once poured. Stars burn out. The exception is life itself. Quantum physicist Schrödinger coined the term ‘negentropy’ to describe how living matter, Canute-like for its lifetime, reverses this cosmic tide towards disorder and homogeneity.

The key to negentropy is homeostasis. As Bernard famously put it, the condition of a free life is the stability of the interior milieu – whether one is a unicellular amoeba or, like Schrödinger, a Nobel-prize winning primate. Homeostasis, and the more general processes of allostasis resist the forces of entropy, physiologically and behaviourally. Inherent in homeostasis are boundaries: cell membranes, the skin, the brain within its skull. Janus-like, homeostasis faces outwards towards the environment and inwards towards the milieu interieur. Temperature sensors in the skin tell us it’s a hot day; the sympathetic nervous system activates sweat glands, the brain tells us to fling off jumpers, move into the shade, etc., all in the service of resisting being entropically fried. Note that homeostats vary in ‘precision’ – some are highly sensitive, whereas others tolerate a great range of variation.

* The brain’s job is to counteract entropy and to maintain internal stability on behalf of the organism whose processes and behaviour it controls and directs; this applies, reflexively, to itself.

* Our sense organs, external and internal, are constantly bombarded by a vast range of stimuli from an ever-changing environment. To operate with maximum efficiency, the brain selects out the ‘meaning’ of its sensations, attending only to those that are relevant to its ‘affordances’ – its specific ecological niche – and especially to input that is anomalous or novel.

* On the basis of prior experience, the Bayesian brain continuously estimates the likelihood of future events. Probabilities are computed by comparing current states of affairs with past occurrences, estimating the extent of correspondence between them, factoring in the likelihood of errors in both memory and perception, and ending with a portion that represents that which cannot be predicted. This is ‘prediction error’, which must, in the service of negentropy, be minimised as far as is possible – prediction error minimisation or PEM.

The brain, ‘top-down’, uses Bayesian probabilities to clarify ‘bottom-up’ input, extero- and interocaptive: ‘My stomach is complaining, but it’s not surprising – I overdid it on the pudding, so it’s probably not cancer’; ‘I know that tune, I’ve heard it so many times – yes of course, it’s the Beatles’ Yellow Submarine’; ‘Is that a stick or a snake? Come on, no adders in city centres, probably safe to pick it up’.

* ‘Energy’ equates to information, albeit physically embodied in patterns of neuronal impulses, synaptic transmission (‘fire together, wire together’) and the neurohormonal environment. Prior models of the world, top-down, ‘bind’ incoming bottom-up information. Energy unbound, or prediction error, reflects novelty in need of binding – and so forestall the dangers of entropic chaos.

* Prediction error is minimised by ‘binding’ bottom-up energy (informational as well as physiological) by top-down generative models based on pre-existing patterns and concepts. Thus is order preserved, entropy eschewed. We know what we like and, mostly, see what we want and expect to see.

* But there will always be a discrepancy between our pre-existing models of the world and incoming sensations, an excess of energy that cannot be bound and will have to be passed onto the next level up of the hierarchy. Lockdown excepted, we don’t live huddled in ‘dark rooms’. The environment is constantly in flux; we need to explore as much as conserve – to find new sources of food, suitable mates, interest and excitement. Surprise, calibrated by the brain as the discrepancy between expectation and incoming sensation, is a proxy for free energy – and hence entropy. Surprise is both vital to survival but also potentially entropic, disruptive or even life-threatening. This represents the prediction error aforementioned. The brain minimises such surprise/error by whatever means possible.

At this point the role of affect becomes important. Free energy is aversive and can be thought of as representing mental pain. Conversely, ‘binding’ free energy is rewarding and therefore motivating. The role of affect, positive and negative, is to drive the free energy minimising processes.

* Given that incoming stimuli are inherently subject to error and imprecision, the brain increases precision by movement – approaching an ambiguous stimulus source, turning the head to use foveal rather than peripheral vision, switching lights on in order to see better, etc. Second, top-down model revision. Now we know what that vague shape really ‘is’ – a cat, clothes strewn on the floor, etc.: ‘Let’s listen more carefully. Oh, that’s not the Beatles at all, it’s the Beach Boys’. Third, and vitally in the case of social species such as our own, active inference is enhanced by recruiting help or ‘twogetherness’: ‘Did you hear something, or was I just imagining it?’; ‘You know about ’70s music – what was that group’s name?’. Friston & Frith call this ‘duets for one’ and have worked out the mathematics of such collaborative Markov blankets. Fourth, if all else fails, by choosing or fashioning environments that conform to the brain’s pre-existing models of the word: ‘I can’t stand modern music. Let’s go over to Classic FM’. This last aspect is captured by the psychoanalytic concept of ‘projective identification’, in which we shape our interpersonal world, often deleteriously, to conform with expectations: ‘You psychiatrists are all the same – never there when I need you’.

* Consider depression, typically triggered by loss, trauma or multiple setbacks. Adversity is widespread – poverty, inequality, racism – but not all succumb. To understand resilience, we need an illness model that encompasses not just events, but individuals’ responses to them. Attachment research shows that those who are securely attached are able to repair the inevitable ruptures to which all are prone, often through the typical sequence of protest, rage, grief and mourning. As children, securely attached people have had caregivers they could depend on to acknowledge their pain, tolerate protest and help them to move on. Repeated episodes of everyday rupture–repair cycles help build this resilience.

The free energy released by the rupture is bound by the child’s knowledge that help is at hand and that their epistemically trusted caregiver will provide a generative model to counteract the free energy associated with ruptures: ‘Don’t worry love, I’m just going to the loo, I’ll be back in a minute’. In the ‘still face’ paradigm, parents are asked to freeze their facial expression for 1 minute while talking or playing with their child. Securely attached children continue actively to try to re-engage with their caregivers in the confident expectation that they will be ‘back soon’. For insecurely attached children, by contrast, rather than rupture–repair, cycles of rupture–despair or rupture–disappear are the norm. Their caregivers have either themselves been overwhelmed by their child’s unhappiness and so despairingly abandon attempts to alleviate it; or repress the impact of the child’s mental pain and so ‘disappear’ emotionally. Both leave the child alone to find ways to bind the free energy the rupture evokes. When their caregiver’s face freezes they look away, become miserable and regressed, and often resort to self-soothing rituals such as rocking or emotional dissociation.

Such insecurely attached children are primed in later life for depression in response to loss or trauma or, in extreme cases, to developing post-traumatic stress disorder. The ingredients of free energy minimisation needed to maintain psychological equilibrium are for them problematic. Active inference is compromised. They tend to be passive rather than active. They stick with limited and simplistic and inflexible ‘top-down’ models such as ‘It’s no use trying to make things better, it never works’ or ‘Feelings are dangerous, best to keep them buried’. They find it hard to trust people and so can’t ‘borrow’ an intimate other’s brain with which to process feelings and build up alternative ways of viewing the world.

* The most commonly used therapy for depression, CBT, attempts to address these deficiencies. Therapists encourage patients actively to test their negative ‘hypotheses’ by looking more closely at their experiences and by exploring alternative top-down models to account for them (‘Maybe my boyfriend didn’t answer his phone because he’d run out of battery, not because he doesn’t love me’). But CBT has its limitations. ‘Treatment-resistant depression’ is common.15 People with personality disorders do badly with standard CBT, often refusing to engage or dropping out. The FEP provides explanations for this. From an FEP perspective, one way to minimise free energy is to gravitate towards or engender environments that confirm one’s view of the world, however negative. Depression relegates sufferers to emotionally impoverished relationships, stereotyped and simplistic top-down models, and thus becomes a self-fulfilling hypothesis, resistant to psychotherapeutic interventions. In addition, these negative top-down priors are ‘inferentially inert’, i.e. inaccessible for modification.

A degree of chaos/uncertainty/free energy needs to be tolerated before new generative models can evolve. Homeostatic imprecision needs to be tolerated for a while. The holding and ‘negative capability’ of the therapist’s ‘borrowed brain’ paves the way for a more complex, nuanced top-down reset. Given that people with personality disorders notoriously find it difficult to trust others, the brevity and defocus on the therapeutic relationship in standard CBT limits the scope for such fundamental change.

Moving from depression to an FEP perspective on trauma, the latter creates an overwhelming influx of free energy for which there are no available top-down models with which to bind it. Thoughts of cruelty, neglect and abuse remain in the realm of the unthinkable and are therefore ‘defended against’ by repression or dissociation. However, when jointly considered – under a shared Markov blanket – these bottom-up unprocessed experiences can be bound with the therapist’s encouragement and expertise into manageable narratives. However painful, they become less overwhelming, a source of new ways of thinking and psychic reorganisation.

* Free association taps into the mind’s normally unvoiced upward-welling stream of consciousness, counteracting the elusiveness of affect seen in the rupture–despair/disappear attachment pattern. This enables the range of top-down responses to be enhanced and aversive free energy minimised. At the top-down level, in a process comparable to the immune system’s lexicon of antigen-activated antibodies, dreaming is the means by which the mind generates a repertoire of narratives with which to bind the free energy which life’s vicissitudes engender. Transference analysis turns the spotlight on the limited varieties of top-down narratives that sufferers use in their dealings with intimate others to minimise free energy. The enigmatic ambiguity of therapists’ persona enables patients to experience, reconsider and extend the top-down assumptions with which they approach the world of intimate others.

* Psychoanalytic and attachment-derived mentalisation-based therapy (MBT) is now established as a highly effective therapy for borderline personality disorder, previously considered untreatable.Reference Bateman and Fonagy18 MBT leads to big reductions in medication use, suicide attempts, hospital admission and unemployment among people with borderline personality disorder, as compared with treatment as usual.

MBT is both practically and conceptually consistent with the FEM. It encourages patients (a) to identify the bottom-up feelings that fuel their self-injurious actions, (b) to pause and think of different ways of handling these, i.e. to tolerate a quantum of free energy with the help of the therapists’ ‘borrowed brain’ and (c) through mutual mentalising (therapist and patient together forming a neurobiological ‘bubble’) to generate more complex and adaptive models of the self and significant others. The result is manageable surprise: confounding sufferers’ negative assumptions about the world, becoming less overwhelmed by unbound affect (fewer ‘melt-downs’) and facilitating greater resilience.

Posted in Attachment | Comments Off on The Brain has a Mind of its Own: Attachment, Neurobiology and the New Science of Psychotherapy

California Burning: The Fall of Pacific Gas and Electric—and What It Means for America’s Power Grid

This piece is the best thing I’ve read in the Wall Street Journal in years. I can’t wait to read the book. It comes out in five days.

WSJ: Inside the Investigation That Secured a Guilty Plea for 84 Wildfire Deaths:

A brilliant flash broke the morning darkness on Nov. 8, 2018, as strong winds pummeled a power line scaling the Sierra Nevada mountains 90 miles north of Sacramento, Calif. A worn hook hanging from a century-old transmission tower owned by PG&E Corp. broke clean, dropping a high-voltage wire that spit electricity just before sunrise. A shower of sparks set dry brush aflame. PG&E recorded an outage on the line at 6:15 a.m.

The message reached the local fire station at 6:29 a.m. Two engines sped north along a remote road running up a steep river canyon that funnels mountain winds down to the valley below. Within 15 minutes, they arrived on the east bank of the Feather River, opposite the makings of a firestorm. There was no way to get ahead of it. The transmission tower, perched high along a steep, gravelly access route, was almost completely inaccessible by fire engine.

Within an hour, the fire had spread 7 miles to arrive at the outskirts of Paradise, a town nestled in the Sierra foothills. Residents awoke to emergency evacuation orders as softball-sized embers collided with dead trees. The fire was entirely out of control. At its fastest, it engulfed the equivalent of 80 football fields a minute, by some estimates. As the evacuation process began, thick black smoke took on the hellish orange hue of the flames. Escape routes became choke points, lines of cars inching along melting asphalt.

Posted in California | Comments Off on California Burning: The Fall of Pacific Gas and Electric—and What It Means for America’s Power Grid