Why Are Ashley St. Clair & Grimes Creating Drama Online Over Elon Musk? (2-21-25)

Philosopher Michael Huemer writes:

There’s a stereotype held by men that “women are crazy”, and a stereotype held by women that “men are jerks”.

2.1. What are jerks?
I think it mostly means people who are overly self-centered. They think too much about their own interests and desires and not enough about others’; they have an overly high opinion of themselves, especially without justification; they tend to be too aggressive in interpersonal interactions.

2.2. Why are there jerks?
Evolution. The genes we have are those that, in our evolutionary history, caused people with them to leave behind more copies of their own genes, compared to their alleles. In general, having a very strong focus on oneself causes one to serve oneself, which tends to enhance one’s reproductive fitness. So, to the extent that personality is heritable, we would expect jerkiness to spread.

Surely few if any women would say that they like jerks. But they might prefer certain traits that are correlated with jerkiness.

First, it’s plausible that men who are higher in the social hierarchy are higher value mates, since they could give more advantages to their wives and children. But a certain degree of jerkiness probably enables men to climb the hierarchy. (Not too much, though.) So women might have evolved to be attracted to jerkiness, or they might have evolved to be attracted to status, which correlates with jerkiness.

Second, it is widely known that women desire confidence. Confidence may help one to succeed in life. Moreover, it is a sign of general success: The more you succeed in getting what you want, the more confident you feel. People who tend to succeed are generally going to be higher-value mates, so women might want to select confident men.

But that is a simplification. Actually, there are at least two reasons why someone might be highly confident:

Competence: Normal people start out with low confidence when they first start to do anything, because they know that they don’t know what they’re doing. As they gain skill and success (if they do), their confidence builds. This includes physical skills as well as social and intellectual skills.

Confidence hacking: Once other people have learned to associate confidence with competence, a personality type might develop to “hack” the system, so to speak, by just projecting confidence automatically, regardless of actual ability. These are people who are simply confident as a standing personality trait. This enables them to get the benefits of being perceived as competent, without actually needing to have high ability.

Aside: Why doesn’t everyone have this trait? Because it also has a downside: when you are overconfident, you tend to bite off more than you can chew and to take too many risks.

Confidence Hackers are likely jerks. They feel confident without basis, which means that they are at least a little narcissistic, and their personality type is an adaptation to manipulate other people. Of course, as with all of these things, they need not know what they are doing; they just find themselves feeling confident and feeling as though they themselves are great, without knowing why.

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The Fundamental Attribution Error (2-21-25)

Glenn writes:

Noah Smith is a very good writer and a very bad analyst of international affairs. He seems to spend a lot of time huffing and puffing himself into a fit about the notion that there is a “New Axis” of unmitigatedly belligerent totalitarian powers cartoonishly hell-bent on overturning the U.S.-led liberal international order and unleashing tyranny on the people of the world. The main thrust of his writing over the past several years seems to be that the United States needs to totally reorient its economy and society in order to fight “Cold War 2” against the New Axis.1

You can generally ascribe Smith’s errors to either of two common perceptual biases in U.S. national security thinking:

The Fundamental Attribution Error: Smith tends to impute the malfeasance of U.S. adversaries to their inherent nature, while chalking up U.S. and allied behavior to circumstance.

Threat Inflation: He treats any challenge to U.S. hegemony or international security from a U.S. adversary as if it’s the end of the world, and when evidence is ambiguous, he interprets it to that effect.

Yesterday, Smith reposted an article he wrote last year, “Japan, South Korea, and Poland need nuclear weapons immediately,” that illustrates both of these errors very well. He argues that, although it is unfortunate that more democratic countries would need to acquire nuclear weapons, it is necessary for them to proliferate because they face intolerable threats to their security from the insatiable revisionist Sino-Russian Axis and they can’t trust the United States to defend them. Moreover, because U.S. adversaries are already developing nuclear weapons with the help of Russia and China, controlled proliferation to U.S. allies would not be exceedingly costly to the international order.

Smith is wrong on both counts. There is no evil Axis, and it does not pose a looming threat to the survival of U.S. allies in Europe and Asia. There is also no Russian or Chinese conspiracy to undermine the global nonproliferation regime and spread nuclear weapons to U.S. adversaries — more of a paranoid delusion than a serious assessment of the facts about international security.

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Trump’s Realistic Worldview Makes Him Hard To Fool (2-20-25)

02:00 Is The Gaza War About To Turn Into The West Bank War? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIxYgmz2uCk
15:00 What were [Gonzalo Lira aka] Coach Red Pill’s contributions from Ukraine that made it worth risking his life?
20:00 How can Taiwan defend itself against China, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPMgzm_9K50
23:00 Jesse Waters
35:00 Is DT our first pessimist president? https://www.ft.com/content/a3b6e6c1-831f-45bc-8565-81193ce07f5a
1:09:30 Hugh Hewitt: President Trump’s EO “Ensuring Accountability For All Agencies” is a very big deal
1:14:00 Charles Lipson: Democrats built America’s over-mighty presidency. Now Trump is bending it to his will, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2025/02/20/democrats-america-over-mighty-presidency-trump-bend-it/
1:26:00 Gregory Clark on Social Mobility, Migration, and Assortative Mating, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwq_WKBpYJQ
1:32:00 Charles Lipson: Trump’s presidency is an ink-blot test for America – Democrats see a dictator. Republicans see a strong leader fulfilling his promises. https://thespectator.com/topic/trumps-presidency-is-an-ink-blot-test-for-america/

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Is Egypt About To Invade Israel? I Thought The US Bribed Egypt To Not Fight Israel? (2-20-25)

Posted in Egypt, Israel | Comments Off on Is Egypt About To Invade Israel? I Thought The US Bribed Egypt To Not Fight Israel? (2-20-25)

AXIOS: Trump’s mega-MAGA month transforms America (2-20-25)

Posted in America | Comments Off on AXIOS: Trump’s mega-MAGA month transforms America (2-20-25)