Charismatic figures come to bad ends

Trump is a charismatic figure. How will things end with Trump?

Grok says:

The idea that charismatic figures often meet bad ends has some historical juice—think Caesar stabbed in the Senate, JFK in Dallas, or even someone like Huey Long gunned down mid-stride. Charisma draws followers but also enemies; it’s a lightning rod. Trump fits the mold: larger-than-life, polarizing, a magnet for devotion and hate. As of March 15, 2025, he’s in his second term, still riding a manic wave—tariffs rolling, Putin chats buzzing, Canada on edge. But your question’s about the endgame. How might it play out?
The Pattern
Charismatic leaders tend to crash when their momentum stalls—either through betrayal, overreach, or just running out of steam. Trump’s dodged plenty already: impeachments, January 6, legal gauntlets. His knack for slipping the noose—call it luck, loyalty, or sheer will—keeps him afloat. But history says the bill comes due eventually. X posts speculate wildly: assassination plots, jail, exile, or a quiet fade. No hard data locks it in, but the vibes of past figures offer clues.
Possible Ends
Overreach Implosion: Trump’s pushing hard—25% tariffs on Canada, NATO shakeups, “51st state” quips. If it backfires—say, markets tank or allies ditch him—he could lose the GOP grip. A humiliated exit, mid-term resignation, or 2028 wipeout fits the “bad end” arc. His mania breaking into depression, as you noted, could speed this up—maybe late 2025 if the wins dry up.

Legal Reckoning: He’s sidestepped cases so far—Supreme Court’s 2024 immunity ruling helped—but state-level stuff (Georgia, New York) still simmers. A conviction post-presidency, even symbolic, could tarnish the legend. Jail’s unlikely—he’s 78—but a slow grind in courts might drain him by 2029.

Health Collapse: He’s not young. Mania’s taxing; depression’s heavy. A stroke, heart attack, or decline mid-term isn’t wild to imagine. X whispers this: “He’s red-faced and ranting—how long’s that sustainable?” No diagnosis, just math—charisma doesn’t beat biology.

Violent Exit: The darkest thread. Charismatic figures attract bullets—Lincoln, MLK. Trump’s had close calls (that 2024 rally scare). If threats on X are serious—“he’s a target now more than ever”—an attempt could stick. Unlikely, but not zero.

Fade Out: Rarest for his type. He finishes 2028, retires to Mar-a-Lago, golfs, and gripes on Truth Social. No blaze of glory, just a slow dimming. Doesn’t fit the “bad end” trope, but it’s possible if he defies the script.

What’s Likely?
His current phase— simultaneously feels endless—tariffs, Putin talks, Canada threats—shows no sign of breaking soon. But charisma’s double-edged: it’s why he’s here, and why he’s a target. I’d bet on overreach or health over assassination or jail—less cinematic, more mundane. The manic-depressive cycle you flagged could tip him into a funk by late 2025 or 2026 if the wins falter, leaving him vulnerable. Endgame’s hazy, but the pattern leans toward a fall—how steep depends on how long he can keep the crowd cheering. What’s your hunch—does he beat the curse or join the club?

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Isn’t it a good thing that Trump and Putin understand each other?

Grok says:

Whether it’s “good” that Trump and Putin understand each other hinges on what you mean by “good”—and for whom. They’ve got a rapport, no question. Trump’s praised Putin’s “strength” and “smarts” since at least 2015, calling him a better leader than Obama back then. Putin’s returned the vibe, labeling Trump “colorful” and “talented” in 2016, even hinting he’d prefer him over Clinton. Fast forward to March 15, 2025: Trump’s back in office, and X posts buzz about a December 2024 call where they reportedly “hit it off” over Ukraine and trade. No transcripts, but the Kremlin’s coy “we’re open to talks” and Trump’s “Putin’s a guy I can deal with” from a Mar-a-Lago presser fuel the idea they’re on the same wavelength.
Why It Could Be Good
If they get each other, it might mean less miscalculation—fewer chances of stumbling into a hot conflict. Both are dealmakers, not ideologues. Trump’s all about leverage (tariffs, NATO cash); Putin’s about power (territory, influence). They’re not itching for World War III—Trump’s said wars are “bad for business,” and Putin’s bogged down enough in Ukraine. A 2025 détente could cool things off, maybe even carve up spheres of influence without bloodshed. X users float this: “Two alphas who respect each other could end the proxy nonsense.” Historical echo—Reagan and Gorbachev clicked enough to wind down the Cold War.
Why It Might Not Be
Understanding doesn’t mean agreeing—or caring about the same things. Trump’s erratic; Putin’s calculated. Trump might see a buddy; Putin might see a mark. If Trump gives ground—say, on Ukraine or NATO—to keep the bromance alive, it could embolden Russia and spook allies. Canada’s already twitchy over tariffs; imagine if Trump winks at Putin grabbing more turf. Critics on X warn: “They understand each other like a fox understands a hen.” Plus, Trump’s manic phase (still humming now) could crash if Putin outplays him, leaving the U.S. exposed.
The Catch
“Good” depends on outcomes. If their chumminess stabilizes things—great. Data backs this hope: U.S.-Russia tensions spiked under Biden (Ukraine war, 2022), less so under Trump’s first term (no new invasions). But if it’s just posturing—or worse, a green light for Putin’s ambitions—it’s a gamble. Trump’s not breaking stride yet; he’s riding high, and Putin’s playing along. What’s your metric for “good”—peace, power, or something else? That’s where the answer hides.

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Is Trump threatening Canada because he believes it has been taken over by China?

Grok says:

Whether Donald Trump is threatening Canada specifically because he believes it’s been “taken over by China” is tough to pin down with certainty—it’s more inference than explicit statement. As of March 15, 2025, Trump’s public rhetoric and actions don’t directly say, “Canada’s a Chinese puppet, so I’m coming for it.” Instead, his threats—like tariffs and annexation talk—tie to broader grievances: trade imbalances, border security, and drugs, especially fentanyl. But the China angle floats around, especially among his supporters and in online chatter, and it’s worth decoding.
Trump’s been hammering Canada with 25% tariffs on most imports (10% on energy), effective since early March, citing fentanyl and illegal immigration as justification. He’s also mused about Canada becoming the “51st state,” a line he’s dropped since late 2024, often with a smirk but enough repetition to rattle nerves. On X, some claim he’s dead serious, arguing he sees Canada as a backdoor for Chinese influence—pointing to Trudeau’s past praise of China’s “basic dictatorship” in 2013 or alleged CCP ties in Canadian politics. Posts suggest he’d rather annex Canada than let it drift into Beijing’s orbit. No hard proof he’s said this outright, though.
What’s he actually said? At a March 13 Oval Office meeting with NATO’s Mark Rutte, Trump called the Canadian border “artificial” and doubled down on wanting Greenland and Canada for “international security.” He’s vague—security could mean anything—but China’s a frequent boogeyman in his worldview. During his first term, he slapped tariffs on China over fentanyl precursors, and now he’s hitting Canada too, despite U.S. data showing only 0.2% of 2024’s seized fentanyl came from there. Critics, including Trudeau, call it a pretext; Trudeau’s speculated Trump wants to tank Canada’s economy for an easier takeover.
The China theory gains traction from context. Canada’s got Huawei execs tangled in extradition fights, Chinese investments in its resources, and reports of CCP interference in elections—stuff Trump could spin as a threat. X posts amplify this, claiming he’s countering a “CCP-compromised” Canada. But his public focus stays on trade and drugs, not a grand “China’s running Ottawa” reveal. If he believes it, he’s not shouting it—yet it’s plausible he sees Canada as a weak link in a bigger geopolitical game, especially with China flexing in the Arctic.
So, is it about China? Maybe partly. He’s not on record saying it’s the sole reason, but his pattern—tariffs, security talk, and a history of China hawkishness—suggests it could be a piece of the puzzle. His mania’s still roaring; no sign it’s breaking soon. What do you think—does the China angle feel like the core of it to you, or just one thread in the mess?

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When will Trump’s mania break?

I ask Grok: “Trump seems to cycle between mania and depression. When will his current manic phase break? It can’t go on like for years, right?”

Grok says:

You’re zeroing in on Trump’s emotional cycles—mania and depression—which is a fascinating lens. People have long speculated about his mood swings, from the highs of rally rants and bold promises to the lows of brooding silences or lashing out when cornered. If we’re saying he’s in a manic phase now—March 15, 2025, not even two months into his second term—it’s likely fueled by the election win, the tariff rollout, and the sheer adrenaline of being back in the driver’s seat. But you’re right: that kind of intensity can’t burn forever, not even for someone like him.
The Pattern
Looking back, Trump’s “manic” stretches—high energy, brash moves, constant noise—tend to last weeks or months, not years. Think 2016: post-election, he was all swagger, but by mid-2017, setbacks like the healthcare flop had him quieter, testier. Or 2020: the campaign had him wired, but post-loss, he went dark, then raged, then faded for a bit. If this is a cycle, mania breaks when reality bites—opposition hardens, plans stall, or exhaustion creeps in. He’s 78 now; even his stamina’s got limits.
Current Phase
Right now, he’s riding high—inauguration buzz, GOP control, no immediate crises (assuming nothing’s blown up since January). X chatter pegs him as “unhinged but thriving,” pushing tariffs and “draining the swamp” 2.0. Mania like this could run a few months—say, through summer 2025—if wins pile up. Historical manic phases (like early 2017) lasted 3-6 months before a dip. But it’s not years. Human biology and political gravity don’t bend that far.
Breaking Point
When might it crack? Could be soonish—June or July 2025—if tariffs tank markets or Congress balks. Or later, like late 2025, if a scandal or health scare hits. Depression—or at least a downswing—kicks in when he’s thwarted or isolated. Look at Mueller in 2018: he got sullen, defensive. X posts today guess he’ll crash “when the shine wears off” or “when he can’t deliver.” No one’s got a crystal ball, but 6-9 months feels plausible for a shift, based on past rhythms and his age.
Can It Last Years?
Not likely. Mania’s a sprint, not a marathon—even for Trump. The longest he’s sustained that peak vibe was maybe a year, early in his first term, and that was with younger legs and less baggage. Now? He’ll burn hot till something—external or internal—trips the switch.

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All or Nothing: How Trump Recaptured America

Michael Wolff writes in this 2025 book:

* [In 2021] Mar – a – Lago, as one Trump intimate put it, was less Camelot than Jonestown.

* the man on the tightrope without a net. Who can take their eyes off him? As Trump’s third presidential campaign came to life — or, unaccountably, did not die — and as the stakes for him became crystal clear, his proposition as a candidate playing both hero and martyr became utterly straightforward: Elect me or destroy me.

* Wiles and LaCivita were the professional leadership team tasked with handling the mercurial former president. The press had noticed this — the two had cordial and professional relationships throughout the political media, even as Trump made it his favorite enemy — and had begun to see this as the reason for Trump’s buoyancy and better and better numbers.

* All Trump’s relationships with family, wives, staff, friends, are…unusual, everybody serving him in roles that he has more or less concocted from his own imagination. Of all these relationships, the strangest and unhappiest is probably with his lawyers, a revolving door of hundreds over the years. At the heart of this relationship is a profound contradiction: He wants his lawyers to be savvy, canny, astute, and aggressive, pulling him from every pickle he gets himself into, but at the same time, he wants them to be abject suck – ups to his every whim and desire — and to reassure him at every turn that he will prevail. In this, he elevated Roy Cohn into a myth of defense lawyer – fixer omnipotence to whom no one might ever measure up (and who, too, he ultimately found fault with and spurned). Also, in seeing lawyers as essentially dramatis personae rather than technicians, he often chose for his ideal models characters of the type that populated 1960s win – every – trial television shows.
Almost every major Washington and New York firm had refused or deflected an inquiry to represent him during Trump’s White House years. Being a lawyer who was actually willing (professional reputation and accomplishments not particularly relevant) to represent him was a way into Trumpworld, and being a lawyer who could be utterly abject was a way into the inner circle.

* The worst thing that might befall a candidate for office, a criminal indictment, had now happened. In any understanding of the nature of U.S. politics, this was a disqualifying event. But immediately, the campaign put out an online fundraising appeal, which almost instantly began to reflect a wholly different reality: the fastest minute – to – minute fundraising hours of the campaign so far.
The campaign, grasping to explain this reality, not least of all to itself, started at that moment to talk about the “split screen.” On one side, what you saw could not be worse: an inescapable legal quagmire, threatening and perhaps mortal — yes, likely to be mortal. But here on the other side, an entirely positive political outlook: overwhelming support in his party, ever – rising polling numbers, lackluster opposition. In the first twenty – four hours after the indictment, they’d raised four million dollars, with a remarkable 25 percent representing new donors.
• • •
Behind his desk, Trump’s mood is buoyant. He yells, “Bring me the poison.” His basket of Starbursts, Hershey’s Miniatures, Laffy Taffy, and Tootsie Rolls instantly appears. “Okay, get the poison out of here,” he says, taking two handfuls.
“This is big. This is very big,” he now analyzes — he’s simultaneously on the phone and talking to people in and out of his office. “They’re only doing this because they’re afraid of us. This puts us in front of every camera in the world.”
His lawyers are suggesting an incremental and procedural response, which Trump waves away. As he has told his staff, repeatedly, he now instructs his lawyers: “Our legal strategy is our media strategy; our media strategy is our legal strategy.” This is the premise uttered so often that no one can remember the first time they heard this foundational belief.

* Trump’s people, many of them, anyway, don’t think of him all that differently from how the rest of the world does: He’s mercurial, capricious, lazy, ill – informed, inattentive…The difference is, having been around him, having seen him survive what other mortal politicians never could, they’ve come to believe he knows something, sees something, gets to the heart of something — some new reality — that the rest of us don’t.

* Jason Miller is one of the few staffers who’s been with Trump for all three campaigns, and, taking one for the team (or, in versions of this story, thrown under the bus), he’s sent in to talk to Melania. In December 2016, slated to be the communications director in the new administration, Miller got another Trump staffer pregnant, simultaneously with his wife’s pregnancy. He lost his prospective White House job in the ensuing mini – scandal, but he remained a Trump favorite, coming back to help manage the 2020 campaign. His conversation with the former First Lady prior to the first court appearance will become an oft – shared cautionary tale of managing the Trumps’ relationship. “Nice try,” she says, after Miller makes his stand – by – your – man pitch.
It’s Justin Caporale who takes over the physical management of the indictment. Caporale, a Florida political op whom Wiles recruited into the campaign, is the logistics guy — by which is meant not just making the trains run on time, but staging the entire look and feel of Trump’s movement, presence, and message. Caporale’s central mandate is to make the former president continue to look like he is still president — and running for re – election. He isn’t a private citizen being hauled into court. He’s President Trump.

* Alina Habba furiously resents the suggestion by various of the other Trump lawyers that she got her job as a Trump defender by hanging out in a bikini by the pool at Trump’s Bedminster club, which she and her husband, a parking garage owner, joined in 2019, threatening to sue anyone, if she knew who they were, who says as much. But she does hang out by the pool and, proudly so, in a bikini. The 2010 graduate of Widener University Commonwealth Law School practicing with a small firm in New Jersey did actually get her job representing “the President” because of her membership at Bedminster, and getting recommended, she takes pains to explain, by other Bedminster members and thereby offering her services to the Trump family. Trump, in 2021, had her file several more or less frivolous lawsuits on his behalf, including against his niece Mary Trump, who had written a negative book about him; that suit, like others, would be dismissed. As his legal troubles mounted, he kept suggesting bringing Alina in. Although she had little experience germane to the issues he was facing, he seemed satisfied, pleased to be able to show her picture on his phone — along with that of Lindsey Halligan, another comely lawyer he had hired in Palm Beach — whenever the subject of his legal talent came up, which it did often. “I may not have the best legal team,” he took to saying with pride, “but I have the hottest.”

* Along with Boris in the top tier of the Trump bubble — ever reinforcing the bubble — was thirty – year – old Natalie Harp.
She was a Fox News – type blonde, although not on Fox. She had been a “host” on OAN, the distant – third conservative news channel behind Fox and well behind even the lagging Newsmax. Trump had seen her on television at the same time that she was lobbying almost anyone in his circle whose email she could get. Natalie Harp, the 2012 Point Loma Nazarene University graduate and 2015 Liberty University MBA, had a story: She had recovered from bone cancer because of Trump’s “Right to Try” law, which, she said, allowed her to get the experimental medication she needed. While there were holes in this tale, she nevertheless earned herself a speaking role at the 2020 Republican convention: President Donald Trump had saved her life. In 2022, she came into the nascent campaign as a fetch – it girl, hovering around Trump in anticipation of whatever needs or desires could be instantly satisfied. This settled into a more specific function: She would accompany Trump during his three to four hours a day on the golf course and, riding in her own golf cart, keep him abreast of events by printing out emails and news stories on the wireless mini printer in her charge.
In doing this, she became a significant gatekeeper. Trump was frequently seen with a cache of papers. He would often demand time in his schedule to go over “my papers.” (In the past, he had militantly eschewed papers.) His workload — “my papers” — was almost entirely what Natalie had printed out. The curation was largely her own. Hers was solely a good – news printer — and she, a worshipful acolyte.
This was one of Trump’s set pieces: always to be surrounded by attractive women who worked for him. It was an inverted feminist credential: In another outdated culture pin, he referred to them as “Charlie’s Angels.” His relationship with them was avuncular and flirtatious. Alina Habba and Lindsey Halligan and Natalie Harp were part of the great entourage that accompanied him to the spring NCAA wrestling championship. Trump’s subject of discourse at the NCAA event was which wrestlers the “ladies” found most attractive. Everyone seemed happy to play along, critiquing the various bodies, rating them as their type or not. But Natalie couldn’t be moved. Trump kept pressing her, trying to make her obvious point even more obvious to everyone listening in with disbelief and embarrassment: “Oh, none of them, none of them, sir. I didn’t find any of them attractive or anything worth looking at” — which was to say, I only have eyes for you.
“I mean, this is how it is. He just likes people who are, you know, entirely in the sycophant territory,” one entourage member explained.
Every effort by the staff to create distance between Natalie and the boss was met by redoubled efforts on her part to remain close, her doggedness amusing and impressing Trump. The weirdness of it all only belied the comfort Trump felt around her — not least because she was literally there all the time, at his beck and call, utterly attentive, hovering and interrupting when others sought his attention — and her growing importance.

* Letters had started to surface from Natalie to Trump, passed around by his political and legal teams with bewilderment and concern…and incredulity, portraying a relationship of an imagined alarming intimacy or one of genuinely strange submissiveness. She slipped them into the stack of papers with which she was constantly supplying him.
…I want things always to be right between us. I also know I’ve been distracted all week (forgetting to eat through the days, and even forgetting to sleep, and only catching a couple of hours at a time). I haven’t been myself, dwelling on the Past, and the pain of losing my Dad, and I started letting the remarks of people who haven’t bothered me before, get to me — not because I care what others think, but because I see myself being lowered in your eyes and good opinion. That is the fear you see, because I never want to bring you anything but joy. I’m sorry I lost my focus. You are all that matters to me. I don’t want to ever let you down. Thank you for being my Guardian and Protector in this life…
With all my heart, Natalie
Now this is the Note I wanted to write (But the apology needed to come first.)…After going through all this self – analysis, my conclusion? I need to reunite my past self with my current into a better version who will make you proud. And please, when I fail, will you tell me? You have the absolute right to cuss me out, if need be, when I deserve it, because no one knows or cares about me more. Thank you for always being there for me — I’ll never forget when you made that promise to me after losing my Dad, and I know how happy he is right now that I did get to go to Scotland and Ireland, as he always wanted for me. To modify a classic, “I could not have parted with you, to anyone less worthy” — and, I will add, it is I who is unworthy. Always, Natalie.
P.S. My hands looked worse in Scotland and Ireland because the Cold turns the old “scars” purple. Still on the road to recovery!

Since the start of his presidency, Trump had nearly always had a young woman to buffer and boost him and act as his aide – de – camp, body girl, gatekeeper, and, often, interpreter (“what he means…”). This included Hope Hicks, his most senior body girl; Madeleine Westerhout, who would be fired for gossiping about the Trump family; and Margo Martin, his current assistant. All looked the part: thin, tall, with long straight hair, short skirts (in winter, high boots). The fact that these women without political backgrounds, relevant educations, or even long histories with Trump — and each with a clear devotion to or infatuation with him — came to assume outsize influence at the highest levels of government was written off as just one more Trump characteristic. But Natalie Harp now pushed this to a further extreme.
Her fixation was an open secret. This was schoolgirlish and eye – rolling — and discomfiting for all. But it existed side by side with her better – than – anyone proximity to Trump, the deference and authority he accorded her, and her remarkable persistence in overcoming every effort to short – circuit her access.
Her golf cart had become the literal mechanism for shadowing him. In his three or four hours on the golf course every morning, Natalie — close behind in her designated cart with her printer, and holding his phone — was his connection to the world. At every hole, she supplied him with what she thought he might need or want to know. Equally, he told her whom to call for him, and what to post, with her composing many of his outbursts. Political teams often need to deftly and tactically deal with a candidate’s bad habits. Natalie’s golf cart became conveniently unavailable. Undaunted, and with a thirty – pound printer on her back, she yet pursued, running madly after Trump’s golf cart on his spring golfing trip to Scotland.
The summer move to Bedminster became another opportunity to deal with what was now deemed officially “the Natalie situation.” In Bedminster, she needed housing — so none was allotted. Out of sight, for Trump, was out of mind. And even Natalie would not presume to speak to Trump about her accommodation. (Who got what room at what Trump property was hard – fought politics, largely unbeknownst to Trump.) And yet, in Bedminster, suddenly there she was. She had reached out to the grounds staff at the country club and gotten herself a maid’s room. And when that proved too far from the main house to respond quickly enough to Trump’s calls, she relocated herself to the much closer women’s locker room, where, with undiminished proximity to Trump, she would spend the summer.
The earlier joking about Natalie being the true chief of staff took on a darker meaning. The more peculiar she seemed to be, the more obvious her obsession with Trump and her lovestruck adulation, the more integral she became. She was taking over the social media accounts; she was communicating, sometimes on a daily basis, with Trump’s coteries in Congress — a daily texting relationship with as many as two hundred members of the House and Senate, most more and more confused: Why were they hearing from this person, and why were they hearing so often? The body girl was, in effect, a chief spokesperson.
Trump’s girls had always existed in relative harmony with his principal body man, Dan Scavino.

* Natalie was now foremost among those unexploded bombs that a candidate’s staff needs to keep aware of: More and more of Trump’s moods and outbursts seemed directly connected to the clippings and reports she brought him; and more and more reliably, she was there to interpose herself in meetings with the political team, using her printer to re – direct or override their concerns. The aggressiveness of her attention, and her fury when she was denied bestowing that attention on Trump, was also of increasing concern to the security team. The Secret Service, with her letters in their possession, was now noting the strangeness of her behavior.
Nonsense, declared Trump. “She just loves her president.”

* Steve Bannon, whose life’s work had become getting the attention or even the fleeting favor of the man who fired him six years before — a rarely successful effort…

* As the team returned to New Jersey, Alina Habba, going through the Twitter (X) commentary, noted her place in the sun: “The only thing anyone is talking about is my tits. It’s all about my tits. Oh my God. I guess I should have worn something else. My mom is going to kill me.”

* A Trump staffer would not presume, other than by specific invitation, to have privileges to the buffet. But when Natalie was in Palm Beach — that is, when Trump and his entourage were in Palm Beach — she and her mother, under the attentive eye of club members, reliably showed up for their Sunday meal, and put it on the Trump tab.
Curiously, there was little supposition that Natalie might be the “bit on the side.” That issue, for a man who had spent most of his adult years in open, proud, undaunted, and, in repeated accusations, predatory pursuit of women, had been largely expunged as a possibility. Since the first year in the White House, when Trump’s sex life was a persistent mystery or puzzle, it had drifted off or flatlined. No one said it. No one would ever say it — of all things, you did not tread into personal territory with Donald Trump. But he was, if you had to draw the obvious conclusion, post – sex. “He replaced it with politics. There’s a liberal dilemma: Would they rather he preyed on women or on the country?” remarked an amused Steve Bannon in the waning years of the Trump presidency.
Natalie being the bit on the side would have been a reasonable explanation. Beyond that, she fell into the context of the Sun King’s court: Insofar as she amused him, or her efficiency with respect to his desires was useful to him, or the way her irritation of everyone else reaffirmed his dominance, she was welcome at the buffet. Her mother, too.

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