Corona Comments

From comments to Steve Sailer’s blog:

* This morning’s story about Bronx Zoo tigers catching the WuFlu is certainly aimed at maintaining peak public anxiety.

* Japanese television programs are now being produced by dramatically reduced skeleton staff, as few as two people, camera and director. Post-pandemic I wonder how many businesses will think, “We never really needed all those people!”? Pareto’s Law, 20 percent of the staff can produce 80 percent of the profit? Unemployment may never recover, unless the bring all that manufacturing back from China.

* So the sky isn’t falling? Bodies aren’t piling up in the streets, stadiums and parks?

Too bad, many people I know have been waiting like vultures to buy real estate once the prices go down enough. They started buying stocks about March 15.

* Brace yourselves everyone, the Chinavirus pandemic is reaching its ‘peak’. The peak is when it will be its worst. This is literally the worst time, so don’t forget to freak out.

Sincerely, the Media

Americans brace for possible approach of coronavirus peak

New York’s scramble to brace for peak crisis is warning for rest of U.S.

Americans are being advised to steel themselves for one of the most agonizing weeks in living memory as President Donald Trump and his advisers predict that parts of the country are nearing a peak of cases of covid-19

New York doctor braces for peak of coronavirus pandemic

* Spain was most overwhelmed judging by the their death rate, but Spain was too weak economically to have done things differently. America’s death rates so far are tracking Italy’s, and neither had an income tax until 1910-20. Always the outlier, Germany has a very significantly lower death rate, has had an income tax since 1880, and etaxes very heavily while spending hardly anything on defence. They prioritise education health, and manufacturing. As a result German have a gold plated health service staffed by an abundance of superbly trained individuals that usually have so little to do they have to make up illnesses like low blood pressure to diagnose.

You need a gold plated health service to cope with an emergency. This emergency will continue long after the lockdown ends, and resources re-allocation will be far more disruptive in other countries that in subtly mercantilist defence freerider Germany and its totalitarian capital goods customer China. For instance, to supply the vast number of masks required the cheapest ones must be bought and that means buying from China. Economic strength has consequences, so does long term misallocation of resources, through pressure for lowering taxes and asset stripping to increase shareholder value. The West has been exposed as like a bodybuilder in competition shape with zero per cent fat and skin like tissue paper. Sure, he appears to be strong and efficient, but in reality he is out of reserves and can hardly stand.

* We are going to have to have the mother of all public enquiries when this is over…

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The Defining Decade: Why Your Twenties Matter–And How to Make the Most of Them Now

https://www.amazon.com/Defining-Decade-Your-Twenties-Matter/dp/0446561754
https://megjay.com/the-defining-decade/
https://www.nateliason.com/notes/defining-decade-meg-jay
https://www.businessinsider.com/dr-meg-jay-the-defining-decade-2012-7

I don’t think it is so much that your 20s define who you are, it is that they reveal who we are. Genetics is most important. The people I know who are most successful today did well in their 20s, but they also did well as children and in their teens. They have good genes, they come from families where their parents did well in life, and made good choices. People with athletic parents tend to be athletic, people from musical parents tend to be musical, people with good looking parents tend to be good looking, people with smart parents tend to be smart, people with disciplined parents tend to be disciplined, people with sociable friendly parents tend to be social and friendly. people whose parents divorced, are more likely to divorce, people with parents who are alcoholics or addicts are more likely to be addicts. As a psychologist and author, Meg Jay is going to be predisposed to thinking that if people take her advice, they’re going to succeed… Perhaps people with good genes have less need of her advice, and people with bad genes are going to have less ability to follow good advice.

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Making Friends Online

Justin Murphy blogs:

The best way to build community and make friends on the internet is to treat all internet interlocutors as if they are real humans in a real-life, local village. If you do this, over time many people will like you and want to form an alliance with you. Because most internet behavior is so atrocious, if you abide by traditional inter-personal norms (reciprocity, manners, courtesy, etc.), you quickly become a strange attractor. You become a kind of weird avatar from another time and place. Of course, you will encounter many haters in the short-run. They will interpret your quaint earnestness as an ironic performance, or “soy boy” pusillanimousness, or some kind of 4-dimensional hyper-grift. But in the long-run, traditional interpersonal ethics are irresistibly attractive because they are, in fact, good and superior.

Now, of course, there is a reason why average internet behavior is so atrocious.

It is seemingly impossible to abide by small-village norms on the internet, simply because those norms evolved in contexts where villagers had no choice but to play iterated games and everyone could remember everyone else’s behaviors. On the internet, neither of these conditions hold: nobody is forced to remain in any grouping over time, and there are so many people that nobody can remember everyone else’s behavior. There are strong incentives to exploit others, and no obvious reason to invest much care into others. So if you treat every potential interlocutor with care, you’ll quickly waste all of your resources and be exploited into nothingness.

However, it is feasible to apply traditional ethics to everyone who enters your personal sphere for the first time, and then simply ignore them as soon as they fail to reciprocate. In game theory this strategy is called “tit for tat,” and in my contexts it is found to be the best possible strategy. Many people seem to follow a variant of this strategy, in their “blocking” behavior. On Twitter, many people will block someone at the first indication of their enemy status. But most of these people are not really playing traditional-ethics tit-for-tat reciprocity because usually they’re usually also lobbing hand-grenades into the enemy camp for fun and profit on a daily basis. I’m saying one should treat the entire universe of internet denizens on a courteous, tit-for-tat basis: If they’ve done me no wrong, then I won’t do them any wrong. If they come into my sphere, I will treat them as a real friend until evidence of bad behavior, in which case I will not retaliate but simply ignore them.

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Rob Eshman Returns

https://forward.com/life/443018/rob-eshman-joins-the-forward-to-lead-national-expansion/

https://www.unz.com/isteve/cv-stats-by-los-angeles-county-neighborhood/

https://forward.com/opinion/442014/why-american-jews-are-at-greater-risk-for-coronavirus/

https://forward.com/news/443012/letter-from-la-the-humbling/

Comments at Steve Sailer:

* I hope Dennis Prager is alright — besides being a Jewish Angelino over the age of sixty who travels a lot, when the restriction guidelines came out, he found not visiting people to unthinkable, and insisted that you could visit the houses of friends while maintaining social distancing. An illustration of how deeply ingrained it is.

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The Power of Nations: Measuring What Matters (4-1-20)

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