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Category Archives: Iran
Why Different Groups View The Iran War Differently
The foreign policy establishment, often called the blob, operates with a buffered identity. These planners and analysts view the world as a system of manageable, secular states that respond to rational incentives. To a buffered mind, the threat from Iran … Continue reading
You Don’t Win Wars Through Logic & Rhetoric
The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 for reasons that had little to do with weapons of mass destruction. The weapons argument was a tool of mobilization, a pretext chosen because it could unite a domestic coalition, satisfy the requirements … Continue reading
Richard Haass: ‘America chose this war — and must now choose how to end it’
Richard Haass is speaking from the core of the American foreign policy establishment. His essay is less about Iran than about defending the worldview of the professional diplomatic class. Now think about David Pinsof’s argument that most public reasoning is … Continue reading
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Why do elites argue that Iran’s war plans are super rational and coolly calculating while Trump’s plans are impulsive and crazy?
The contrast between the “Rational Iran” and “Irrational Trump” narratives is a perfect example of what David Pinsof calls patchwork narratives. These are moral or intellectual stories created on the fly to support a specific alliance’s status. The Logic of … Continue reading
NYT: In War’s First Week, a Punishing Military Campaign With No Coherent Endgame
The New York Times reports: “The U.S. and Israel have pounded Iran’s leadership and undercut its defense capabilities, but President Trump has offered wildly different explanations for what he hopes to achieve.” The blob aka the foreign policy establishment places … Continue reading
When The Search For Meaning Leads To War
Ross Douthat writes in the NYT: The best essay for understanding right-wing support for Donald Trump’s war against Iran was published in National Review in 2023, at the 20th anniversary of the Iraq invasion. Written by Tanner Greer, a conservative … Continue reading
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The Leading Iran Experts
Academic and Policy Scholars Afshon Ostovar: An Associate Chair at the Naval Postgraduate School and FPRI Fellow, Ostovar is widely cited for his expertise on the IRGC and Iranian military strategy. He recently provided extensive commentary on the limitations of … Continue reading
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Where Do The Elites Get Their Iran War Info?
I’ll group them by the real prestige ecosystems that feed decision makers. Think of them as different alliance clusters in the information market. 1. The “insider strategy” publications These are read by Pentagon staff, intelligence analysts, and think-tank people. Many … Continue reading
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Decoding Iran Expert Hassan Ahmadian
Hassan Ahmadian is best understood through David Pinsof’s Alliance Theory as the internal-regime interpreter who explains the strategic logic of the Islamic Republic to foreign audiences. Most Iran analysts I have been decoding sit outside the Iranian state ecosystem. Ahmadian … Continue reading
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Decoding Iran Expert Arman Mahmoudian
Arman Mahmoudian is best understood through David Pinsof’s Alliance Theory as the technical logistics interpreter for Iran’s military endurance problem. Farzin Nadimi explains Iranian weapons systems and hardware. Afshon Ostovar explains the IRGC as an institution and political actor. Mahmoudian … Continue reading
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