Why Are Some People Smarter Than Others?

James Thompson writes: Doug is a quiet guy, who has entirely ignored the American habit of self-promotion, but has gently put modern intelligence research on the map. Almost unseen, in 1977 he founded and edited one publication Intelligence from precarious obscurity, to fragile partial visibility, to its present position as the leading journal on intelligence research. He only got his freedom from the editorial coal mine last year. He also founded the International Society for Intelligence Research (ISIR) in 2000.

Now he looks back at 50 years of intelligence research, and avers that it is much more important than curing cancer, controlling global warming or ending poverty. He also regards teachers and schools as over-rated, since they only account for 10% of pupil achievement. Five decades dedicated to finding a satisfactory answer to a simple question: why are some people smarter than others?

His answer: a traffic jam. All the modules of the brain have to go through a central hub, and the poorer the connection the lower the intelligence.

Posted in IQ | Comments Off on Why Are Some People Smarter Than Others?

Schizos Are Dangerous

Dr. James Thompson writes:

Positive predictive value in schizophrenia_thumb[1]

As you can see, assaults are committed by 1 in 7 untreated schizophrenics and by 1 in 10 treated schizophrenic patients per year. Treatment is only moderately effective in this regard. These are very high rates compared to the general public. Even with a relatively weak predictor, you need to monitor only 2 or 3 patients to possibly prevent an assault. This would be a highly effective intervention, and should receive more publicity. Large et al. seem to be doubtful about the value of screening in general, but their own data show it has utility for assaults.

For violent crime, monitoring 26 patients is required for a possible prevention of a violent crime. Again, this is manageable given resources.

Homicide in untreated patients happens, according to this table, at the very high rate of 1 in 600 schizophrenics. That compares with homicide rates in the UK of 0.9 per 100,000 persons and in the US of 3.9 per 100,000 persons. (US 4 times as murderous as the UK). So, the rate of homicide in non-schizophrenics in the UK is 1 in 111,111 and in the US is 1 in 25,641 persons. Therefore, an untreated schizophrenic person, using the estimates given in this paper, is apparently about 42 times more likely to murder someone than a US citizen, and 185 times more likely to murder someone than a UK citizen. Can these figures be correct? If so, this is a very dangerous category of person. An instrument with a positive predictive value of 0.66% (extremely low) requires that 151 persons be monitored. This would be onerous, but would prevent a murder. It is an indicator of the level of risk to the population when patients do not take their medication.

A homicide committed by a treated patient (1 in 10,000) means that treated schizophrenics are apparently 11 times more dangerous than UK citizens and almost 4 times more dangerous than US citizens. In the US it requires 2500 patients being monitored, a high number, and the best estimate of how difficult it would be to prevent one person being murdered, assuming most patients comply with treatment. Monitoring for most patients would probably involve no more than chasing up non-attenders at follow-ups, and doing some random checks on compliance with medication. This would be worth studying, particularly now that monitoring in diabetes is being trialled using mobile phone apps, with good results.

Here are a few reflections. Risk estimates vary considerably, but all are raised for schizophrenics, particularly in the early untreated phase. By implication, a schizophrenic patient who does not comply with medication falls into a high risk category. It seems very worth-while to screen for assaults, violent crime and homicide, particularly in untreated or medication-refusing schizophrenics.

schizophrenia and violent crime in sweden_thumb[2]

Posted in Crime | Comments Off on Schizos Are Dangerous

‘Healing a divided Britain: the need for a comprehensive race equality strategy’

Dr. James Thompson blogs:

They give details of inequality in education and learning; work, income and the economy; health and care; justice, security and the right to life; and the individual and society.

I started by looking at the references, and they mostly relate to government reports, trade union reports, a Guardian article and some books and working papers. There was nothing I could find from the peer-reviewed literature on scholastic attainment or intelligence, and nothing on genetics or the heritability of behavioural characteristics. This is a prime example of a confection which is lawyerly rather than scholarly. It is written by lawyers who ignore the world-as-it-is for the world-as-they-want-it-to-be; nay, the world as they command it to be.

Posted in IQ | Comments Off on ‘Healing a divided Britain: the need for a comprehensive race equality strategy’

How Important Is High Average National IQ For Prosperity?

Gregory Cochran writes:

untitled

As far as average IQ scores go, this is what the world looks like. But there are two relevant tests: the Stanford-Binet, and life itself. If a country scored low on IQ but at the same time led the world in Cavorite production, or cured cancer, or built spindizzies, we would say “screw Stanford-Binet”, and we would be right to do so.

Does that happen? Are there countries with low average scores that tear up the technological track? Mostly not – generally, fairly high average IQ seems to be a prerequisite for creativity in science and mathematics. Necessary, although not sufficient: bad choices (Communism), having the world kick you in the crotch (Mongols), or toxic intellectual fads can all make smart peoples unproductive…

Diasporas track. The populations that scored low at home score low in new lands: those that scored high continue to score high. Chinese that entered Malaysia as illiterate tin miners end up doing well in a few generations: Japanese that moved to Brazil to pick coffee are high achievers now.

Is it easy to notice such differences? Well, for ordinary people, it’s real easy. Herero would ask Henry why Europeans were so smart – he said he didn’t know. But with the right education, it apparently becomes impossible to see. Few anthropologists know that such differences exist and even fewer admit it. I’m sure that most have never even read any psychometrics – more importantly, they ignore their lying eyes. Economists generally reject such explanations, which is one reason that they find most of the Third World impossible to understand. I must give credit to Garret Jones, who is actually aware of this general pattern. Sure, he stepped on the dick of his own argument there at the end of his book, but he was probably lying, because he had to. Sociologists? It is to laugh.

Generally, you could say that the major job of social science is making sure that people do not know this map. Not knowing has its attractions: practically every headline is a surprise.

Posted in IQ | Comments Off on How Important Is High Average National IQ For Prosperity?

Who Can You Trust?

All of the American nuclear scientists who gave secrets to Stalin were Jews. On the other hand, without Jewish scientists, America might not have had the bomb first.

Stalin’s hard turn against the Jews after WWII seems to fit historical patterns of gentile leaders suspecting their Jewish subjects of disloyalty.

According to Wikipedia:

Despite Stalin’s willingness to support Israel early on, various historians suppose that antisemitism in the late 1940s and early 1950s was motivated by Stalin’s possible perception of Jews as a potential “fifth column” in light of a pro-Western Israel in the Middle East. Orlando Figes suggests that

“After the foundation of Israel in May 1948, and its alignment with the USA in the Cold War, the 2 million Soviet Jews, who had always remained loyal to the Soviet system, were portrayed by the Stalinist regime as a potential fifth column. Despite his personal dislike of Jews, Stalin had been an early supporter of a Jewish state in Palestine, which he had hoped to turn into a Soviet satellite in the Middle East. But as the leadership of the emerging state proved hostile to approaches from the Soviet Union, Stalin became increasingly afraid of pro-Israeli feeling among Soviet Jews. His fears intensified as a result of Golda Meir’s arrival in Moscow in the autumn of 1948 as the first Israeli ambassador to the USSR. On her visit to a Moscow synagogue on Yom Kippur (13 October), thousands of people lined the streets, many of them shouting Am Yisroel chai (‘The people of Israel live!’)—a traditional affirmation of national renewal to Jews throughout the world but to Stalin a dangerous sign of ‘bourgeois Jewish nationalism’ that subverted the authority of the Soviet state.”

Historians Albert S. Lindemann and Richard S. Levy observe that “When, in October 1948, during the high holy days, thousands of Jews rallied around Moscow’s central synagogue to honor Golda Meir, the first Israeli ambassador, the authorities became especially alarmed at the signs of Jewish disaffection.[32]”. Jeffrey Veidlinger writes that “By October 1948, it was obvious that Mikhoels was by no means the sole advocate of Zionism among Soviet Jews. The revival of Jewish cultural expression during the war had fostered a general sense of boldness among the Jewish masses. Many Jews remained oblivious to the growing Zhdanovshchina and the threat to Soviet Jews that the brewing campaign against ‘rootless cosmopolitans’ signaled.”

Stalin sounds a lot like the Pharoah in the Book of Exodus.

Exodus 1:8-10:

Now there arose up a new king over Egypt, which knew not Joseph.

9 And he said unto his people, Behold, the people of the children of Israel are more and mightier than we:

10 Come on, let us deal wisely with them; lest they multiply, and it come to pass, that, when there falleth out any war, they join also unto our enemies, and fight against us, and so get them up out of the land.

I understand that since spy Jonathan Pollard, Jews as Jews (particularly those with ties to Israel) get increased security vetting before they are cleared.

Gregory Cochran writes in 2013:

But who could the Feds trust? It wouldn’t be like the Manhattan project, where the researchers were anti-Nazi even if they weren’t loyal to the US. Ted Hall and Klaus Fuchs may have delivered the implosion design to Los Arzamas, but at least they didn’t help the Germans.

Could you trust Chinese immigrants? Mostly not. Chinese Americans? Certainly not all of them. But then, what do you do with them?

Let them go home? This issue has come up before. The Feds locked up H. S. Tsien [Qian Xuesen] back in the 50s because they thought he was pro-Chinese and would aid the Chinese rocket program. When they finally let him go, that’s exactly what he did….

Seems to me that the right thing to do would be to get real, while staying reasonably humane. Discriminate. Don’t give out key information to people whose loyalties are plainly elsewhere (that’d be a change !) Arrest technically competent aliens and let them play chess for the duration.

Gregory Cochran writes July 31, 2016:

A while ago I was wondering about who you could trust to work in a modern equivalent of the Manhattan project. Thinking about it again, one problem is that people, if for example you consider the typical recent Ivy League graduate to be a human being, are bound and determined to be stupid about this question.

Imagine how we would have dealt with Japanese-Americans in 1942 if we had been informed by modern sensibilities.

Our stated and enforced policy would have been based on the notion that both Issei and Nisei were perfectly trustworthy, no more likely to aid the Empire of Japan than the Dutch in Grand Rapids

So we would have drafted them into the armed forces just like anyone else, and employed them where their skills seemed useful. We would have had them translating Japanese navy intercepts: we were short on Japanese-language translators, so why not? There would have been a bunch of them working with Hypo, down in the basement. Some would have worked in the Manhattan Project. They would have had jobs in the OSS, in the FBI. What could possibly have gone wrong?

Well, some of them were in fact disloyal: not most, but a far higher percentage than in most other ethnic groups in the US. There is nothing magical about this: it often happens. Were the Anglos that moved into Texas loyal to Mexico? Were the Sudeten Germans loyal to Czechoslovakia – was Conrad Henlein just misunderstood? Consider the Niihau incident.

If many Japanese Americans had been privy to the breaking of the Japanese fleet code – plausible, because of the large Japanese population in Hawaii and the need for people with Japanese language skills – the American Magic would have gone away. No Midway, not as we knew it. I figure that we would have lost tens of thousands more KIA in the Pacific than we did in this timeline. Also, probably hundreds of thousands of extra casualties in occupied Asia. Japan would have still have lost, though.

Detailed knowledge of the results from the Manhattan Project wouldn’t have done the Japanese any good, because they didn’t have the industrial muscle and sophistication to make anything of it.

I’m sure there wouldn’t have been any problems with Japanese Secret Service members, any more than Indira Gandhi ever had trouble with her Sikh bodyguards.

Posted in Israel, Japan, Jews, Nationalism | Comments Off on Who Can You Trust?