Steve Sailer Last Night: ‘Is There Still Time for Hillary to Drop Out?’

Steve Sailer posted that question on his blog last night, before Hillary’s collapse today.

Comments at Steve Sailer:

* I have this mental image of Steve, ensconced in a dark room late at night, running his spreadsheet data, thoughtfully tapping a pencil against his chin, muttering to himself: “Yes, yes, my models point to a 95% chance of Hillary collapsing at the 9/11 ceremony tomorrow. I’ll make an indirect reference to it in a post a few hours before it happens.”

* Whoa. That video of Hillary falling at a 9/11 event does not look good, especially when seen in the context of her other public episodes. I used to kind of laugh off speculation about Hillary’s health, but I am starting to change my mind. Another couple of strange episodes and it will start looking like a legitimate issue — and not just among us righties. It will start to seriously hurt her in the polls.

I’m surprised more folks haven’t commented on the appearance of her “security van,” which conspicuously resembles one of those mobility vans used to transport seriously disabled people. Maybe I’m just especially attuned to this because I live in a part of Florida that is thick with retirees even by Florida standards, so I’m used to seeing those things puttering around.

* Steve’s post on this topic couldn’t have been more prescient — almost supernaturally so. Steve’s ouija board must be the best on the internet.

It really is a serious question now as to whether Hillary’s going to have to withdraw from the race. I honestly don’t see how she recovers politically from this episode. It’s not just the health issue, it’s the lying and intimidation she and her campaign engaged in before this event. Who will be able to believe anything she and they have to say about her health, or any other topic, after this event? Who will allow themselves to be bullied by them anymore?

Even the shameless media has been embarrassed by all its loud denunciations of a “conspiracy” over her health. It can look stupid, but it can’t look this stupid. It’s trusted by maybe 6% of the population — it can’t allow it to go down to 3%. It’s finally going to have to ask some serious questions.

The real question is how long Hillary will stick it out. It’s certainly possible she’ll take it to the bitter end of Nov 8, and, I think at this point, a very likely loss. But I’ve got to believe she’s going to get great pressure to drop out as early as possible, so that another Dem will have a shot. Yet it’s hard to see how Hillary is going to give up her one shot at the brass ring without a tremendous struggle.

The Democrats and the media are now going to be living in Interesting Times.

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Being white, and a minority, in Georgia

The future. Shame they don’t have a Jewish Community Center they can join.

Boston Globe: A generation ago, this Atlanta suburb was 95 percent white and rural with one little African-American neighborhood that was known as “colored town.’’ But after a tidal wave of Hispanic and Asian immigrants who were attracted to Norcross by cheap housing and proximity to a booming job market, white people now make up less than 20 percent of the population in Norcross and surrounding neighborhoods. It’s a shift so rapid that many of the longtime residents feel utterly disconnected from the place where they raised their children.

“It’s not that much anger, but you don’t feel comfortable knowing that all this is around you,” said Billy Weathers, 79, who has lived in the area for his whole life and doesn’t speak a lick of Spanish.

Many say they feel isolated in their own hometown, pushed to change their ways, to assimilate to the new arrivals instead of the other way around. They resent the shift, even knowing it’s nobody’s fault, really. And they have mostly kept their feelings to themselves. Who, they wonder, would listen to folks like us, anyway?

But this year, in Norcross and places like it, resentment has found its voice. The concerns of a white citizenry feeling displaced have been reinforced by the rhetoric of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who swept most of the state in the Republican primary.

His slogan, “Make America Great Again,” appeals to people here who don’t talk much to their newer neighbors anymore, not out of malice but because they often don’t even share a common language. When Trump talks about building a wall between the United States and Mexico, these largely white, Republicans nod in agreement.

“There used to be a place where we could go out to eat to get southern cooking,” said Billy’s wife, JoAnn Weathers, 79. “Well there’s no more southerners left here. . . . They came from other countries and completely changed our lives.”

It’s an attitude that many in the elites of both parties are quick to dismiss as out-of-date, wrongheaded, and frankly kind of embarrassing. It sounds like racial prejudice, and sometimes is. But to simply ignore or belittle this sense of loss and isolation is to close your eyes and ears to nativist sentiments that predated Trump’s rise, and even if he loses, aren’t going away. The demographic tide all but guarantees it…

Four counties in Georgia signed up for a program that allows local police and sheriffs to check the immigration status of any person charged with a crime, including Gwinnett County, where Norcross is located. Those four places deported more than 1,300 illegal immigrants using the program in the last year, according to federal statistics.

The Georgia General Assembly in 2011 passed a far-reaching law aimed at making conditions inhospitable to undocumented immigrants, with provisions that barred them from using state services and made it easier for more local law enforcement to cooperate with federal immigration officials.

“I want to take care of our people. I don’t want to take care of Mexico’s people who are here illegally,” said state Senator Renee Unterman, whose district is close to Norcross, during the contentious legislative debate. “I’m not spewing hate. I’m just talking about reality.”

Trump won all but four of Georgia’s 159 counties in the March Republican primary on his platform of sealing the border and deporting undocumented immigrants. His margins were high in the Norcross area, especially in the older neighborhoods that have seen an influx of immigrants.

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The Black-White Wage Gap In Brazil

The Economist: Brazil took more African slaves than any other country, and now has nearly three times as many people whose ancestors left Africa in the past few centuries as America does. Yet black faces seldom appear in Brazilian newspapers outside the sports section. Few firms have black bosses. The government has not a single black cabinet member; its predecessor, which called itself progressive, had one—for equality and rights. On average black and mixed-race Brazilians earn 58% as much as whites—a much bigger gap than in America (see chart).

The gap in Brazil, as in America, used to be even wider. Much progress has come from anti-poverty schemes, which, though colour-blind in design, benefit darker-skinned Brazilians more, since they are poorer. More recently, Brazil has started to try explicit racial preferences (known in America as “affirmative action”). But American ideas cannot simply be transplanted to Brazil. Differences in how the two countries were colonised, and how the slave economy operated, led to distinct ideas of what it means to be “black”—and different attitudes to compensatory policies and whom they should target.

Of the 12.5m Africans trafficked across the Atlantic between 1501 and 1866, only 300,000-400,000 disembarked in what is now the United States. They were quickly outnumbered by European settlers. Most whites arrived in families, so interracial relationships were rare. Though white masters fathered many slave children, miscegenation was frowned upon, and later criminalised in most American states.

As black Americans entered the labour market after emancipation, they threatened white incomes, says Avidit Acharya of Stanford University. “One drop” of black blood came to be seen as polluting; laws were passed defining mixed-race children as black and cutting them out of inheritance (though the palest sometimes “passed” as white). Racial resentment, as measured by negative feelings towards blacks, is still greater in areas where slavery was more common. After abolition, violence and racist legislation, such as segregation laws and literacy tests for voters, kept black Americans down.

But these also fostered solidarity among blacks, and mobilisation during the civil-rights era. The black middle class is now quite large. Ms Loras would not seem anomalous in any American city, as she did in São Paulo.

Colour card

In Brazil, unlike America, race has never been black and white. The Portuguese population—700,000 settlers had arrived at the start of the 19th century—was dwarfed by the number of slaves: a total of 4.9m arrived. Portuguese men were encouraged to consort with African women. Since most came without wives, such unions gained some legitimacy. Their offspring, referred to as mulatto, enjoyed a social status above that of pretos. They worked as overseers or artisans, but also doctors, accountants and lawyers. A mulatto, Machado de Assis, was regarded as Brazil’s greatest writer even during his lifetime in the 19th century.

Mixing led to a hotch-potch of racial categories. In 1976 the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) recorded 134 terms used by Brazilians to describe themselves, mostly by skin colour. Some were extremely specific, such as branca suja (literally “dirty white”) or morena castanha (nut-brown). The national census offers just a few broad categories—as in America, which offers five, though these days America’s also allows you to tick as many as you like and add a self-description. Tiger Woods, a golfer, calls himself “cablinasian” (a portmanteau of caucasian, black, American Indian and Asian).

Both black and white Brazilians have long considered “whiteness” something that can be striven towards. In 1912 João Baptista de Lacerda, a medic and advocate of “whitening” Brazil by encouraging European immigration, predicted that by 2012 the country would be 80% white, 3% mixed and 17% Amerindian; there would be no blacks. As Luciana Alves, who has researched race at the University of São Paulo, explains, an individual could “whiten his soul” by working hard or getting rich. Tomás Santa Rosa, a successful mid-20th-century painter, consoled a dark-skinned peer griping about discrimination, saying that he too “used to be black”.

Though only a few black and mixed-race Brazilians ever succeeded in “becoming white”, their existence, and the non-binary conception of race, allowed politicians to hold up Brazil as an exemplar of post-colonial harmony. It also made it harder to rally black Brazilians round a hyphenated identity of the sort that unites African-Americans. Brazil’s Unified Black Movement, founded in 1978 and inspired by militant American outfits such as the Black Panthers, failed to gain traction. Racism was left not only unchallenged but largely unarticulated.

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The Race for President is (Probably) Over

Scott Adams writes: If you are following breaking news, Hillary Clinton abruptly left the 9-11 memorial today because she was reportedly “overheated.” Her campaign says she is fine now.

You probably wonder if the “overheated” explanation is true – and a non-issue as reported – or an indication of a larger medical condition. I’m blogging to tell you it doesn’t matter. The result is the same.

Here’s why.

If humans were rational creatures, the time and place of Clinton’s “overheating” wouldn’t matter at all. But when it comes to American psychology, there is no more powerful symbol of terrorism and fear than 9-11 . When a would-be Commander-in-Chief withers – literally – in front of our most emotional reminder of an attack on the homeland, we feel unsafe. And safety is our first priority.

Hillary Clinton just became unelectable.

The mainstream media might not interpret today’s events as a big deal. After all, it was only a little episode of overheating. And they will continue covering the play-by-play action until election day. But unless Trump actually does shoot someone on 5th Avenue, he’s running unopposed.

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WP: Hillary Clinton’s health just became a real issue in the presidential campaign

Chris Cillizza writes this morning: Hillary Clinton falling ill at a memorial service on the 15th anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks Sunday morning will catapult questions about her health from the ranks of conservative conspiracy theory to perhaps the central debate in the presidential race over the coming days.

“Secretary Clinton attended the September 11th Commemoration Ceremony for just an hour and thirty minutes this morning to pay her respects and greet some of the families of the fallen,” spokesman Nick Merrill said. “During the ceremony, she felt overheated, so departed to go to her daughter’s apartment and is feeling much better.”

What that statement leaves out is that a) it came 90 minutes after Clinton left the ceremony b) reporters — or even a reporter — were not allowed to follow her and c) the temperature in New York City at the time of Clinton’s overheating was in the low 80s. (A heat wave over the eastern United States broke last night/this morning.)

Whether Clinton likes it or not, her “overheating” comes at a very bad time for her campaign. Thanks to the likes of Rudy Giuliani and a small but vocal element of the Republican base, talk of Clinton’s health had been bubbling over the past week — triggered by a coughing episode she experienced during a Labor Day rally.

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