{"id":95198,"date":"2016-05-07T20:15:49","date_gmt":"2016-05-08T04:15:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=95198"},"modified":"2016-05-07T20:15:49","modified_gmt":"2016-05-08T04:15:49","slug":"they-totally-knew-the-people-who-foresaw-the-rise-of-donald-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=95198","title":{"rendered":"They Totally Knew: The People Who Foresaw the Rise of Donald Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"

From Slate<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Scott Adams<\/p>\n

Who he is: Creator of Dilbert, author, blogger.<\/p>\n

When he called it: Aug. 5, 2015<\/p>\n

What he said: \u201c[I]f Hillary does not coast into the White House as I expect (and this is a prediction, not a preference) you will see a Donald Trump presidency.\u201d Later called Trump a \u201cclown genius.\u201d<\/p>\n

What tipped him off: \u201cI certainly understand that Trump comes off as arrogant, obnoxious, and lots of other bad stuff,\u201d Adams wrote on his blog. \u201cBut over time, and compared to the liars on stage with him, you might get hooked on hearing his honest opinions. That\u2019s how the New York style works. At first you hate it because it seems so harsh. In time you start to appreciate the honesty. And when you realize the harshness is not a signal of real evil\u2014just a style\u2014you tend to get over it. He won\u2019t win over all of his haters, but I predict that his New York style will grow on people more than you would expect. You could say his style is his biggest problem, but it might be self-solving with time and exposure. He is getting both.\u201d<\/p>\n

He elaborated on his reasoning in an interview over FaceTime this week: \u201cI have a background as a trained hypnotist and I\u2019ve been studying persuasion and influence in all its forms\u2014everything from advertising and marketing to you name it\u2014for decades. I\u2019ve gone deeper than most people in the art of influence, and when I started watching Trump I realized early that what looked like the random behavior of a clown to people who were untrained, was almost pitch perfect persuasion.\u201d<\/p>\n

What he says about it now: Adams thinks Trump will win the general election in a \u201clandslide.\u201d \u201cI no longer think it\u2019ll be close, unless he gets assassinated or something,\u201d he said. As for what it was like to be taking Trump seriously when no one else was: \u201cIf you imagine politics as a stick fight, all other stick fights have been won by a person with a stick. But here was Trump who said, \u2018I read the rules and there\u2019s nothing against bringing a flamethrower.\u2019 So I\u2019m watching Donald Trump walk up to a stick fight with a flamethrower in his hands that only I can see. It\u2019s like an invisible flamethrower! And the only reason I can see it is I have the same tool box.\u201d<\/p>\n

Chris Cillizza<\/p>\n

Who he is: Political reporter for the Washington Post\u2019s the Fix<\/p>\n

When he called it: Aug. 2\u20134, 2015 <\/p>\n

What he said: Cillizza was wrong about Trump before he saw the light. In June he wrote a blog post titled, \u201cWhy No One Should Take Donald Trump Seriously, in One Very Simple Chart.\u201d It doesn\u2019t matter what the chart was. On Aug. 4, Cillizza published a follow-up: \u201cBoy, Was I Wrong About Donald Trump. Here\u2019s Why.\u201d<\/p>\n

What tipped him off: In the August post, Cillizza noted that Trump\u2019s favorability ratings had gone up significantly in just a few months\u2014something he did not expect because, as he put it, \u201cI had NEVER EVER seen a reversal in how people perceive a candidate who is as well known as Trump\u2014much less a reversal in such a short period of time.\u201d This made Cillizza realize that Trump was in uncharted waters.<\/p>\n

What he says now: \u201cMy guiding belief with Trump has been that no political rules\u2014or at least no conventional political rules\u2014apply to him,\u201d Cillizza said in an email. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From Slate: Scott Adams Who he is: Creator of Dilbert, author, blogger. When he called it: Aug. 5, 2015 What he said: \u201c[I]f Hillary does not coast into the White House as I expect (and this is a prediction, not … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29752],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-95198","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-donald-trump"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95198","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=95198"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95198\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":95199,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95198\/revisions\/95199"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=95198"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=95198"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=95198"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}