If we don’t elect Trump now, we’ll elect Hitler later. (Ricky Vaughn)<\/p>\n
From Politico<\/a>:<\/p>\n If I asked you what most defines Donald Trump supporters, what would you say? They\u2019re white? They\u2019re poor? They\u2019re uneducated? If we don’t elect Trump now, we’ll elect Hitler later. (Ricky Vaughn) From Politico: If I asked you what most defines Donald Trump supporters, what would you say? They\u2019re white? They\u2019re poor? They\u2019re uneducated? You\u2019d be wrong. In fact, I\u2019ve … Continue reading
\nYou\u2019d be wrong.
\nIn fact, I\u2019ve found a single statistically significant variable predicts whether a voter supports Trump\u2014and it\u2019s not race, income or education levels: It\u2019s authoritarianism.
\nThat\u2019s right, Trump\u2019s electoral strength\u2014and his staying power\u2014have been buoyed, above all, by Americans with authoritarian inclinations. And because of the prevalence of authoritarians in the American electorate, among Democrats as well as Republicans, it\u2019s very possible that Trump\u2019s fan base will continue to grow.
\nPolitical pollsters have missed this key component of Trump\u2019s support because they simply don\u2019t include questions about authoritarianism in their polls. In addition to the typical battery of demographic, horse race, thermometer-scale and policy questions, my poll asked a set of four simple survey questions that political scientists have employed since 1992 to measure inclination toward authoritarianism. These questions pertain to child-rearing: whether it is more important for the voter to have a child who is respectful or independent; obedient or self-reliant; well-behaved or considerate; and well-mannered or curious. Respondents who pick the first option in each of these questions are strongly authoritarian.
\nBased on these questions, Trump was the only candidate\u2014Republican or Democrat\u2014whose support among authoritarians was statistically significant.
\nSo what does this mean for the election? It doesn\u2019t just help us understand what motivates Trump\u2019s backers\u2014it suggests that his support isn\u2019t capped. In a statistical analysis of the polling results, I found that Trump has already captured 43 percent of Republican primary voters who are strong authoritarians, and 37 percent of Republican authoritarians overall. A majority of Republican authoritarians in my poll also strongly supported Trump\u2019s proposals to deport 11 million illegal immigrants, prohibit Muslims from entering the United States, shutter mosques and establish a nationwide database that track Muslims.
\nAnd in a general election, Trump\u2019s strongman rhetoric will surely appeal to some of the 39 percent of independents in my poll who identify as authoritarians and the 17 percent of self-identified Democrats who are strong authoritarians.
\nWhat\u2019s more, the number of Americans worried about the threat of terrorism is growing. In 2011, Hetherington published research finding that non-authoritarians respond to the perception of threat by behaving more like authoritarians. More fear and more threats\u2014of the kind we\u2019ve seen recently in the San Bernardino and Paris terrorist attacks\u2014mean more voters are susceptible to Trump\u2019s message about protecting Americans. In my survey, 52 percent of those voters expressing the most fear that another terrorist attack will occur in the United States in the next 12 months were non-authoritarians\u2014ripe targets for Trump\u2019s message.
\nTake activated authoritarians from across the partisan spectrum and the growing cadre of threatened non-authoritarians, then add them to the base of Republican general election voters, and the potential electoral path to a Trump presidency becomes clearer.
\nSo, those who say a Trump presidency \u201ccan\u2019t happen here\u201d should check their conventional wisdom at the door. The candidate has confounded conventional expectations this primary season because those expectations are based on an oversimplified caricature of the electorate in general and his supporters in particular. Conditions are ripe for an authoritarian leader to emerge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"