{"id":62750,"date":"2015-02-03T12:44:05","date_gmt":"2015-02-03T20:44:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=62750"},"modified":"2015-02-03T12:55:46","modified_gmt":"2015-02-03T20:55:46","slug":"israel-shows-the-way-forward","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=62750","title":{"rendered":"Israel Shows The Way Forward"},"content":{"rendered":"

Anthropologist Peter Frost writes<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Westernization seemed to be the secret to success. In the 19th century, Ashkenazi Jews embraced it with the fervor of the newly converted, using Yiddishkeit as a vehicle to spread the ideals of the Enlightenment\u2014progress, freedom, and personal autonomy. The Japanese converted during the Meiji Restoration, turned away during the 1930s, and finished the job under American tutelage. In Russia, the Bolshevik Revolution began as an effort of accelerated Westernization, which later reversed course under the pressures of autarky and fear of the West. In the 1990s, with the end of communism, the West once more became the model to be followed.<\/p>\n

Today, non-Orthodox American Jews have a fertility rate of only 1.3 children per woman. Similar baby busts have played out elsewhere, especially where collectivism has rapidly given way to individualism: Japan, Russia, Spain, Germany, Italy \u2026 Modern Western culture is toxic for family formation in most societies, but its effects seem to be more toxic in some than in others.<\/p>\n

Sad but inevitable, you say? Only if you think Western modernity is inevitable. In recent years, both Israel and Russia have dramatically reversed their fertility declines, while continuing to be modern societies (Goldman, 2013; Karlin, 2014). Cash inducements have been one factor. But the really key changes lie in the realm of culture and ideology, particularly in the effort to strike a new balance between the individual and the collectivity. And by the collectivity, I don\u2019t mean the artificial structures of State, ideology, and corporate loyalty. I mean the natural ones of family, kith and kin, and ethny. This will be the basis for postmodern traditionalism, including that part of the world where Western modernity began…<\/p>\n

Russia and Israel are large enough to sustain their own cultures, but this is not the case with the Parsis. Unless they want to be like the Amish or the Hassidic Jews, by blocking out modern Western culture as much as possible, they will have to find some other way.<\/p>\n

I would argue that it\u2019s critical for southern Europe (Spain, Italy, Greece), since they border other countries where fertility is much higher. All three countries are at risk of rapid population change. One could argue that it\u2019s also critical for American Jews. Over the next decade, we\u2019ll see fewer and fewer Jewish Americans in public life, entertainment, and academia.<\/p>\n

The only religious groups with above-replacement fertility are those that can block out modern Western culture. This is the case with the Amish, the Hutterites, and various Orthodox Jewish sects. It\u2019s also the case with the Mormons, who have been able to create a viable alternative subculture. But religion, in itself, is not a relevant factor.<\/p>\n

COMMENTS:<\/p>\n

* We already have a more elegant explanation for fertility declines that fits the data more closely: Caldwell\u2019s cost of kids model. Caldwell points out that all fertility declines have coincided with the onset of mass education, which massively raises the cost of kids to the parent. Before it, wealth flows from kids to parents\u2013kids do not quite deliver a market-beating return but it\u2019s not much worse. Combined with the other reasons to have kids families might aim for 7 or 8 or 10. Post education wealth flows the other way.<\/p>\n

This \u2018cost of kids\u2019 model also fits nicely with loads of other evidence we have. For example when kibbutz broke up, Israelis from them had on average substantially fewer kids because the cost of raising them was higher. Another example is cheap immigrant labour, which by lowerng the cost of childcare raises native fertility.<\/p>\n

* The problem of low and sub-replacement fertility is hardly just a NW Euro one. Indeed, every high-IQ group of people on Earth (collectively) have sub-replacement fertility (by collectively, I mean certain subsets within some groups, like Mormons and Amish in the U.S. or Orthodox Jews in Israel have much higher fertility rates).<\/p>\n

But, the problem is actually least acute in NW Europe. Southern and Eastern Europeans (and East Asians) have significantly lower fertility rates.<\/p>\n

Sub-replacement fertility, in and of itself, is hardly a problem for immediate concern for most groups. The Parsis stand alone as a group for which sub-replacement fertility is a matter of critical importance. The NW Euro countries, with fertility rates only barely below replacement, have plenty of time to address the issue in one manner or another. The East Asian nations \u2013 being so crowded \u2013 might stand to gain in the long run from a period of population decline. And Eastern Europe demonstrates the conclusion of the process: rebounding fertility both as natural selection works its magic and as effective cost of living declines.<\/p>\n

The occurrence of sub-replacement fertility is perhaps an example of adaptations misfiring in a new environment. People act as if there was a quantity-quality trade off when in fact there is none in today\u2019s world.<\/p>\n

* Religious peoples have above replacement level fertility, non-religious have below replacement level fertility. There is something about a commitment to a supernatural order that encourages fertility, while a commitment to secularism discourages same. \u201cPraise God from Whom all blessings flow\u201d and children are such a blessing.<\/p>\n

* Non-Orthodox Jewish-Americans\u2019 intermarriage rate is reducing their population far faster than their low fertility rate.
\n– 1.3 children per woman reduces the next generation to 62% of the size of the last generation (1.3 \/ 2.1 replacement rate = 62%).
\n– Their 71% intermarriage rate reduces the next generation to 29% of the size of the last generation.<\/p>\n

Multiplied together, the next generation of non-Orthodox Jewish-Americans should be expected to be 18% the size of the last generation (.62 * .29 = .18).<\/p>\n

* Some of the most famous Jews today:<\/p>\n

Jon Stewart: Married a Catholic.
\nKevin Rose: Married a Christian.
\nMark Cuban: Married a Christian.
\nMark Zuckerberg: Married an Asian.
\nLarry Page: Half-Jewish, married a Christian.
\nDustin Moskovitz: Married a Turk.
\nLarry Ellison: Married a Christian.
\nSteve Ballmer: Half-Jewish, married a Christian.
\nBen Horowitz: Married an African-American.
\nSteven Spielberg: Married a Kate Capshaw.
\nJared Kushner: Married Ivanka Trump.
\nWesley Clark: Half-Jewish.
\nNeil Gaiman: Married a Christian
\nDavid Cameron: 3\/32 Jewish.
\nBoris Johnson: 1\/8 Jewish.<\/p>\n

Jennifer Connelly: Half-Jewish, married Paul Bettany.
\nGwenyth Paltrow: Half-Jewish, married Chris Martin.
\nNatalie Portman: Married Benjamin Millepied.
\nRachel Weisz: Married Daniel Craig.
\nScarlett Johansson: Half-Jewish, married Ryan Reynolds, then Romain Dauriac.
\nMila Kunis: Married Ashton Kutcher.
\nRachel Bilson: Half-Jewish, has a kid with Hayden Christensen.
\nDianna Agron: Half-Jewish.
\nAllison Brie: Half-Jewish.
\nWinona Ryder: Half-Jewish.
\nYasmine Bleeth: Half-Jewish.
\nLily Collins: 1\/8 Jewish.
\nRosie Huntington-Whiteley: 37.5% Jewish.
\nHelena Bonham Carter: 37.5% Jewish.
\nAlicia Silverstone: 1\/2 Jewish.
\nOlivia Newton-John: 37.5% Jewish.
\nJessica Biel: 1\/8 Jewish.
\nOlivia Wilde: Distant Jewish.
\nNeve Campbell: Distant Jewish.
\nJessica Alba: Distant Jewish.<\/p>\n

Harrison Ford: Half-Jewish, married Calista Flockhart.
\nArmie Hammer: 1\/2 Jewish, married a Christian.
\nDaniel Day-Lewis: Half-Jewish, married a half-Jew-raised-Christian, neither are religious.
\nPaul Newman: Half-Jewish, married a Christian.
\nSacha Baron Cohen: Married Isla Fisher.
\nLiev Schreiber: Half-Jewish, married Naomi Watts.
\nMichael Douglas: Half-Jewish, married Catherine Zeta-Jones.
\nJake Gyllenhaal: Half-Jewish.
\nChris Pine: 1\/4 Jewish.
\nNoah Wyle: 1\/2 Jewish.
\nEd Skrein (Game of Thrones): 1\/2 Jewish.
\nAdam Levine: 3\/4 Jewish, married Behati Prinsloo.
\nSylvester Stallone: 1\/4 Jewish.
\nDaniel Radcliffe: 1\/2 Jewish.
\nMark-Paul Gosselaar: 1\/4 Jewish.
\nRiver Phoenix: 1\/2 Jewish.
\nSean Austin: 1\/2 Jewish.
\nAnsel Elgort: 1\/2 Jewish.
\nLewis C.K.: 1\/8 Jewish.
\nTopher Grace: 1\/8 Jewish.
\nWill Wheaton: 1\/8 Jewish.
\nCary Elwes: 1\/8 Jewish.
\nRobert Downey Jr: 1\/8 Jewish.
\nLars Ulrich: 1\/4 Jewish.
\nYul Brynner: 1\/4 Jewish.
\nDavid Beckham: 1\/4 Jewish by ancestry, 1\/2 Jewish by identity.
\nTom Hanks\u2019 children: 1\/8 Jewish.<\/p>\n

Sources: ethnicelebs.com\/tag\/jewish\/<\/p>\n

Even if the Jewish intermarriage rate were lower for some reason, there\u2019s a lot of evidence that it\u2019s one of the largest trends in the Jewish-American population.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Anthropologist Peter Frost writes: Westernization seemed to be the secret to success. In the 19th century, Ashkenazi Jews embraced it with the fervor of the newly converted, using Yiddishkeit as a vehicle to spread the ideals of the Enlightenment\u2014progress, freedom, … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37,13775],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-israel","category-russia"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t