{"id":175543,"date":"2026-03-13T13:49:44","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T21:49:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=175543"},"modified":"2026-03-13T14:15:41","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T22:15:41","slug":"the-dangers-of-a-weak-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=175543","title":{"rendered":"Iran Experts On The War"},"content":{"rendered":"

Afshon Ostovar is an expert on Iran<\/a>, the Middle East, and security issues\u2014Associate Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, and author of books like Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Middle East. He says that Iran remains dangerous even when weakened. On March 12, he promoted his new Foreign Affairs piece “The Dangers of a Weak Iran<\/a>,” writing: “Iran\u2019s regime has remained unified and unbending. As Mojtaba\u2019s first message signals, he\u2019s a reflection of his father. No creativity, no foresight. Where does Iran go in the postwar with these guys in charge?” The article argues that despite devastating U.S.\/Israeli strikes (destroying much of Iran’s military, nuclear sites, navy, and leadership), the regime prioritizes survival, stays ideologically rigid under Mojtaba, and could pose greater risks through terrorism, proxy aggression, or even a nuclear dash\u2014since a wounded Iran falls back on low-cost asymmetric tactics and may seek vengeance.
\nHe’s pessimistic about creative change from the top, viewing the leadership as inflexible and reflective of past patterns.
\nAbbas Milani<\/a>, the Stanford University historian and director of Iranian Studies (also a Hoover Institution fellow)<\/a> says Iran’s regime is on the brink of collapse.
\nIn a March 6, 2026, CNN Amanpour interview, he stated the Iranian regime has pursued policies making conflict almost inevitable for 47 years and is willing to pay the price with ordinary Iranians’ lives. He expressed profound sadness over innocent deaths but blamed the regime for the warpath.
\nMilani portrays the regime as responsible for escalation and suffering, increasingly illegitimate, with high public support for change (e.g., 88% cited), and the current war as potentially accelerating its downfall.
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