{"id":175003,"date":"2026-03-11T06:14:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:14:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=175003"},"modified":"2026-03-13T08:53:16","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T16:53:16","slug":"175003","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=175003","title":{"rendered":"JPOST: Iran regime change not military goal, creating conditions for it is"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Jerusalem Post’s elite military correspondent, Yonah Jeremy Bob, writes<\/a>: <\/p>\n

\nThe defense sources noted that tackling Iran’s ballistic missile threat was among the military’s primary goals in the war.<\/p>\n

As doubts about the prospect of imminent regime change in Iran spike, defense sources have told The Jerusalem Post that regime change is not and never was a military goal.<\/p>\n

Rather, the IDF always hoped to enhance the conditions which might make regime change in Iran possible if the domestic opposition to the government were ready to take to the streets again in sufficient numbers to topple the regime, said defense sources.<\/p>\n

All of this means that the military would look positively on regime change and wanted to try to help the process, but never had illusions that military action by itself would guarantee such an outcome.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

When a military defines its objective as destroying ballistic missile launchers and degrading production capacity, it creates a measurable benchmark for success. If the standard for victory is the collapse of a theocracy, the military fails as long as that government stands. If the standard is stopping a factory from producing 300 missiles a month, success becomes something you can actually count.
\nThe specific production figures in the article reveal the underlying logic. Iran was moving toward a rate of 150 to 200 missiles per month, with 300 as the feared ceiling. Israel’s missile defense systems, Arrow and David’s Sling, are sophisticated but finite. A sustained saturation attack would eventually overwhelm them through arithmetic. The IDF treats this war as a preventive strike against that mathematical tipping point.
\nThis framing also serves different audiences at once. The military needs measurable outcomes it can defend. The political leadership needs transformational language to mobilize public support. International allies need the mission to sound defensive rather than imperialist, since “creating conditions for change” avoids the shadow of Iraq 2003. All three groups can look at the same war and see the story they need.
\nThe timing of these leaks suggests the IDF is preparing the public for the end of the current phase. They define the win now so critics cannot define it for them later. The hierarchy of objectives becomes clear: neutralize launchers and stockpiles first, degrade production and nuclear sites second, create conditions for domestic change third. Regime change sits at the bottom of the list, which means the war can end honorably without a banner flying over Tehran.
\nWhat you see here is classic alliance management. Netanyahu’s rhetoric pushed toward transformation because that language moves people. The operational plan never assumed transformation was achievable by force. The international coalition preferred the softer framing all along. So the story narrows after the fact, and the Jerusalem Post piece is the first stage of that reframing. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Jerusalem Post’s elite military correspondent, Yonah Jeremy Bob, writes: The defense sources noted that tackling Iran’s ballistic missile threat was among the military’s primary goals in the war. As doubts about the prospect of imminent regime change in Iran … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[183,37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-175003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-iran","category-israel"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/175003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=175003"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/175003\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":175455,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/175003\/revisions\/175455"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=175003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=175003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=175003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}