{"id":169744,"date":"2026-02-15T06:33:58","date_gmt":"2026-02-15T14:33:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=169744"},"modified":"2026-02-15T07:27:39","modified_gmt":"2026-02-15T15:27:39","slug":"lat-bass-helped-raman-win-reelection-now-raman-wants-to-unseat-her-some-call-it-a-betrayal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=169744","title":{"rendered":"LAT: Bass helped Raman win reelection. Now Raman wants to unseat her. Some call it \u2018a betrayal\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Los Angeles Times reports<\/a>: <\/p>\n

Raman\u2019s entry into the race, hours before the filing deadline, shocked the city\u2019s political elite and infuriated the mayor\u2019s supporters. Some observers called it a betrayal of Shakespearean proportions.<\/p>\n

Raman\u2019s name had appeared on a list of Bass endorsers just weeks earlier. Bass\u2019 support for Raman\u2019s 2024 reelection bid had helped the councilmember earn 50.7% of the vote and avoid a messy runoff.<\/p>\n

\u201cHow can she treat a relationship like this, and dispose of it once it\u2019s served its purpose?\u201d said Julio Esperias, a Democratic Party activist who volunteered with Raman\u2019s 2024 campaign at Bass\u2019 request. \u201cIt\u2019s a breach of trust, a betrayal, and it\u2019s kind of hard for me to stomach at the moment.\u201d<\/p>\n

In 2024, Bass \u2014 then at the peak of her popularity \u2014 was featured prominently in Raman\u2019s campaign mailers. She sent canvassers to knock on voters\u2019 doors. A speech Bass delivered at Raman\u2019s rally in Sherman Oaks was turned into a social media video with stirring background music.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Betrayal is the hyperbolic term we give to people who don’t behave as we expect. You cannot relate to others without becoming vulnerable to feeling betrayed, because other people are not fully knowable, just as we are not fully knowable, not even to ourselves. One reason for this is the power of the situation. We typically know people in just one situation such as work or play or worship, and so they become predictable to us in that situation and we tend to generalize that view of them to their whole selves. Big mistake. When the situation changes, people change. People don’t act the same way in shul, at work, in sex, and at a sports stadium. <\/p>\n

David Pinsof’s Alliance Theory<\/a> suggests that political beliefs do not stem from deep moral values but rather from strategic social alliances. We join groups and then adopt ideologies to support our allies and attack our rivals. In this framework, the conflict between Mayor Karen Bass and Councilmember Nithya Raman is not a clash of principles but a shift in the perceived benefits of their partnership.<\/p>\n

Alliances depend on three main factors: similarity, transitivity, and interdependence. In 2024, Bass and Raman shared a strong interdependence. Bass used her high popularity to secure Raman’s reelection, helping her avoid a runoff with 50.7% of the vote. Raman provided Bass with progressive credibility and fundraiser support. This mutual benefit created a stable alliance where both women defended one another\u2019s records.<\/p>\n

Betrayal occurs when an ally finds a more advantageous position elsewhere or perceives the current partner as a liability. Raman now argues that the city is at a breaking point regarding housing and homelessness. Through the lens of Alliance Theory<\/a>, this is a propagandistic tactic. To justify unseating an ally, one must generate a narrative that the ally has failed a moral or practical test. Raman points to the failures of Inside Safe and the obstacles created by Measure ULA. These are not necessarily new realizations but are necessary justifications for a new rivalry.<\/p>\n

The theory also explains the reactions of onlookers like Julio Esperias and the Los Angeles Sentinel. They see the broken alliance as a violation of transitivity. An ally of my ally should be my ally. When Raman turns on Bass, she forces everyone in the Bass camp to reclassify Raman as a rival. The language of backstabbing used by the Police Protective League and Danny Bakewell Jr. serves a strategic function. It signals to others that Raman is an unreliable ally, which lowers her social status and warns potential future partners of the risks of working with her.<\/p>\n

Bass herself is playing a different strategic game. By downplaying the betrayal and saying she looks forward to serving with Raman in a second term, she signals high status and stability. She refuses to engage in the rivalry Raman is trying to initiate. Raman is betting that the electorate cares less about her previous loyalty to Bass and more about the results she promises. Alliance Theory suggests that if she wins, her previous betrayal will be forgotten because she will become the new center of power that others must court.<\/p>\n

There’s a big race angle here. Bass is black and Raman is Indian. Blacks enjoy power just as much as non-blacks enjoy power. If Bass loses and Raman wins, blacks fear they will lose power. <\/p>\n

Alliance Theory<\/a> suggests that humans use identity markers like race and ethnicity as coordination signals to form and maintain coalitions. In a city with the demographic complexity of Los Angeles, these markers often function as the bedrock of political “firms.” When an alliance between leaders of different ethnic blocks dissolves, the resulting friction often triggers a retreat into these tribal coordinates.<\/p>\n

The condemnation from Danny Bakewell Jr. and the Los Angeles Sentinel carries specific weight in this context. By invoking the song Back Stabbers to describe Raman’s move against Bass, Bakewell signals to the Black political establishment that Raman has violated a cross-racial compact. In Pinsof\u2019s framework, this is a move to protect the status of the incumbent by framing the challenger\u2019s ambition as a threat to the representation and power of a specific group.<\/p>\n

Raman represents a different coalition that relies more on ideological alignment and the support of the Democratic Socialists of America than on a single ethnic identity. However, her base includes a significant portion of the progressive, multi-ethnic professional class and younger voters who may feel less tied to the traditional power-sharing agreements between the city’s Black and Latino establishments. This creates a structural tension where an attack on Bass is interpreted by some not as a critique of policy, but as an attempt to displace Black institutional power.<\/p>\n

The reactions from the LAPD union and other critics also follow this pattern of coalitional signaling. By labeling Raman a fugitive of political backstabbing, they attempt to lower her “cooperative value” in the eyes of the broader electorate. They are betting that voters will see her move as a sign of untrustworthiness rather than a principled disagreement. Bass manages this by maintaining a posture of calm authority, which is a high-status way of signaling that her coalition remains intact and unmoved by what she frames as a minor defection.<\/p>\n

The Los Angeles Times highlights the betrayal angle because it provides the most effective “tag” for mobilizing a coalition against a challenger. Under Pinsof\u2019s Alliance Theory, the media does not merely report on events; it participates in the generation of propagandistic tactics that help audiences choose sides. By framing Nithya Raman\u2019s candidacy as a betrayal, the newspaper leverages the concept of transitivity. Transitivity is the rule that allies should share the same friends and the same rivals. When Raman targets Bass, she breaks this rule, and the media highlights this rupture to signal that she is an unreliable partner.<\/p>\n

This narrative serves a specific strategic function for the incumbent’s allies. If the Los Angeles Times focused solely on policy differences\u2014such as streetlights or the nuances of Measure ULA\u2014the conflict would remain an abstract debate about governance. Abstract debates are difficult for most people to track. Betrayal, however, is a universal social cue that triggers an immediate emotional and coalitional response. It allows the Bass camp and its media allies to lower Raman’s social status by labeling her a defector. This warns other potential allies that Raman prioritizes her own ambition over the interdependence of the group.<\/p>\n

The focus on betrayal also obscures the vulnerability of Mayor Bass. With recent reports suggesting the mayor’s office influenced the watering down of the Palisades Fire after-action report, Bass faces a genuine threat to her popularity. Highlighting Raman’s “Shakespearean” betrayal shifts the public conversation away from the mayor\u2019s potential administrative failures and onto the challenger’s character. It creates a patchwork narrative where Raman is the primary moral actor who has sinned, rather than Bass being the administrator who may have stumbled.<\/p>\n

In the logic of political firms, the Los Angeles Times acts as a validator for the existing power structure. By emphasizing the broken bond, the paper reinforces the boundaries of the current establishment. It forces voters to decide not just who has the better plan for homelessness, but whether they want to reward someone who “disposes” of a relationship once it has served its purpose. This tactic is designed to make supporting Raman feel like a social risk, thereby protecting the stability of the primary alliance centered around Mayor Bass.<\/p>\n

In the logic of David Pinsof\u2019s Alliance Theory<\/a>, the reluctance of a major institution like the Los Angeles Times to emphasize racial conflict serves a protective function for the elite coalition it inhabits. Political alliances among the ruling class in Los Angeles often rely on a fragile “peace treaty” between different ethnic and interest-based power centers. Publicly framing the Raman-Bass contest as a racial power struggle risks destabilizing the very progressive coalition the newspaper generally supports. If the conflict is categorized as a policy dispute or a personal betrayal, it remains manageable within the existing social order. If it becomes a racial tribal war, the coordination costs for every other politician and institution in the city skyrocket.<\/p>\n

Naming the racial angle would force every ally to choose between a Black incumbent and a South Asian challenger on the basis of identity rather than ideology. For an outlet that caters to a multi-ethnic, liberal readership, triggering such a clear-cut tribal division creates a “social penalty.” The theory suggests that we avoid narratives that might alienate us from our most important allies. In this case, the Times likely views the maintenance of a unified progressive front as more beneficial than the clicks generated by an explosive racial headline.<\/p>\n

The “betrayal” narrative acts as a safer surrogate for the underlying racial tension. By focusing on Raman\u2019s lack of loyalty to Bass, the paper allows Bass\u2019s Black supporters to feel the grievance of a perceived ethnic displacement without the paper itself having to adopt a racially charged vocabulary. This allows the newspaper to signal support for the status quo while maintaining a veneer of objectivity. It is a form of “propaganda through omission,” where the most volatile information is suppressed to prevent a total collapse of the current alliance structure.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, the professional class that staffs and reads the Times tends to prefer an aesthetic of universalist, meritocratic politics. Admitting that the city operates on a system of ethnic spoils and racial firm-management is low-status behavior. By sticking to the “Shakespearean betrayal” frame, the writers can treat the story as a high-minded drama of character and governance. This protects the image of the city as a modern, post-racial bureaucracy, even as the actors on the ground like Danny Bakewell Jr. use much more explicit tribal signaling to protect their interests.<\/p>\n

ChatGPT says: Read this as alliance logic, not personal drama.<\/p>\n

The alliance frame
\nKaren Bass and Nithya Raman were never friends. They were coalition partners inside the same governing alliance. Bass supplied high-status cover, turnout machinery, and party discipline. Raman supplied ideological energy, district legitimacy, and a bridge to activist networks. The relationship held as long as Bass looked like the dominant coordination node.<\/p>\n

What changed
\nAlliance Theory says defections happen when the expected payoff from loyalty drops below the expected payoff from realignment. Bass took reputational damage from the Palisades fire and stalled service delivery. Polls and elite chatter signaled vulnerability. At the same time, no heavyweight alternative challenger emerged. That opened a rare window where a mid-tier actor could plausibly jump tiers.<\/p>\n

Why it feels like betrayal
\nMoral language appears when alliance norms are violated. Endorsements, letters, and door-knocking are not favors. They are public signals of mutual non-aggression within a coalition. When Raman endorsed Bass and then entered late, she broke the ritual order. Elites call that betrayal because it raises transaction costs for everyone. If signals are unreliable, alliances become brittle.<\/p>\n

Raman\u2019s calculation
\nRaman is executing a classic upward realignment. She reframes loyalty away from internal partners toward an abstract constituency, \u201cthe people of Los Angeles.\u201d That is a standard defection narrative. It converts a norm violation into a moral stand. Measure ULA and Inside Safe become policy justifications, but functionally they are pretexts for exit once Bass could no longer guarantee coordination success.<\/p>\n

Bass\u2019s response
\nBass minimizes the moral conflict. That is rational. Escalating the betrayal frame would harden factions and invite further defections. By stressing continuity and shared accomplishments, she tries to keep wavering allies from re-sorting.<\/p>\n

Why unions and legacy figures react harshly
\nGroups like the LAPPL and legacy brokers like Zev Yaroslavsky enforce alliance discipline. Public condemnation is a warning shot to others considering similar moves. It says defect early and you pay a reputational toll. Win and the toll disappears. Lose and the residue sticks.<\/p>\n

The bottom line
\nThis is not Shakespeare. It is a predictable alliance shift. Raman defected when Bass\u2019s coordinating power weakened and the opportunity structure changed. The outrage is the system policing itself. If Raman wins, the alliance rewrites the story as courage. If she loses, it will be remembered as disloyalty. That asymmetry is the rule, not the exception.<\/p>\n

LF: “Why is the LAT so eager to play up the betrayal angle?”<\/p>\n

Because the betrayal frame serves the paper\u2019s institutional incentives.<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Times is not a neutral stenographer. It is an elite coordination hub. Alliance Theory predicts three reasons it leans hard on betrayal.<\/p>\n

First, norm enforcement. Big-city governance depends on stable elite bargains. When a visible actor defects, the press moralizes the act to discourage copycats. Calling it betrayal is a warning label. It tells future councilmembers that late defection violates the rules of the game.<\/p>\n

Second, legibility. Alliance politics is abstract and technical. Voters do not track coalition math, polling signals, or coordination failure. Betrayal is simple. It turns a structural realignment into a human story with heroes and villains. That makes the conflict intelligible and clickable.<\/p>\n

Third, source protection. The LAT\u2019s access depends on long-term relationships with City Hall, unions, and legacy brokers. Those actors overwhelmingly benefit from discouraging insurgent challenges once succession has been implicitly settled. Playing up betrayal reassures sources that the paper respects alliance etiquette.<\/p>\n

There is also timing discipline at work. Raman entered at the last possible moment. Late entry maximizes shock and minimizes counter-mobilization. From an alliance perspective, that is the most norm-violating way to defect. The press reacts by escalating moral language to reassert control.<\/p>\n

Notice what the betrayal frame excludes. It sidelines questions about whether Bass still functions as an effective coordination node. It downplays structural failure in service delivery. It avoids asking whether the alliance itself is decaying. Moral drama substitutes for institutional diagnosis.<\/p>\n

So the LAT is not confused. It is doing what elite media reliably does when coalitions fracture. It converts strategic realignment into a character story that pressures actors back into line. If Raman wins, the tone will flip overnight. If she loses, the betrayal narrative will harden into her biography.<\/p>\n

In Los Angeles, racial groups function as semi-autonomous political alliances layered on top of ideology and party. When control of a major office is perceived to be at risk of crossing alliance boundaries, emotional intensity spikes. That is what you are seeing.<\/p>\n

Karen Bass is not just an individual officeholder. She is a keystone node in Black political power in Los Angeles. Her mayorship represents continuity of access, appointments, contracts, staff pipelines, and symbolic standing that took decades to secure. From an Alliance Theory perspective, that power is not abstract. It is scarce, hard-won, and actively defended.<\/p>\n

Nithya Raman threatens that control not because she is ideologically radical but because she is outside the historic Black governing coalition. Indian Americans in LA politics are a rising but not yet dominant alliance. Raman\u2019s move reads, to many Black elites, as an out-group attempting a premature power grab.<\/p>\n

That is why the anger is concentrated where it is. The loudest \u201cbetrayal\u201d language comes from Black media figures, Black political brokers, and Black-aligned institutions. The rhetoric is not about policy. It is about boundary defense. Alliance Theory predicts this precisely. When an out-group actor challenges an in-group incumbent, the in-group moralizes the challenge as treachery rather than competition.<\/p>\n

Notice the asymmetry. White candidates challenging Bass would be framed as technocratic or managerial alternatives. A wealthy outsider like Rick Caruso could be criticized without triggering this level of moral fury. Raman\u2019s challenge activates a different alarm because it threatens intra-Democratic racial succession, not just leadership style.<\/p>\n

Also notice what is missing. The article does not seriously explore the idea that power rotation might be legitimate or healthy. That would imply Black political dominance is contingent rather than settled. Elite media avoids that implication because it destabilizes long-standing coalition norms.<\/p>\n

From an alliance lens, this is not about Indians versus Blacks in a crude sense. It is about a historically dominant local alliance sensing slippage and reacting with moralized outrage to freeze the hierarchy in place.<\/p>\n

The key tell is Danny Bakewell\u2019s reaction and the LAPPL statement using criminal metaphors. Those are not reasoned critiques. They are enforcement signals. They say: defect across coalition lines and you will be punished reputationally.<\/p>\n

If Raman wins, this will be reframed as inevitable demographic change and visionary leadership. If she loses, the \u201cbetrayal\u201d label will stick, especially within Black political networks. That is how alliance systems preserve themselves.<\/p>\n

You are right to focus on race, but the deeper mechanism is power retention under demographic transition. Race is the visible axis. Alliance control is the operative one.<\/p>\n

LF: “Why is the LAT unwilling to name the obvious race angle in this story? It’s the most explosive.”<\/p>\n

Because naming it would violate the paper\u2019s core alliance obligations.<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Times understands the race angle perfectly. It is not blind. It is constrained.<\/p>\n

First, the forbidden asymmetry. The race story here is not the approved one. The anger is not white resistance to a minority challenger. It is a Black governing coalition reacting to the prospect of losing control to a non-Black minority. Elite media has no safe moral language for that. Naming it would scramble the usual victim oppressor grammar the paper relies on to stay coherent.<\/p>\n

Second, coalition protection. The LAT is structurally aligned with Black political leadership in Los Angeles. Not ideologically in every case, but institutionally. Sources, access, legitimacy, and historical positioning all run through that relationship. Explicitly saying \u201cthis backlash is about Black power retention\u201d would be read as hostile exposure, not neutral analysis.<\/p>\n

Third, narrative instability. Once you name race here, uncomfortable questions follow. Who gets to hold power, for how long, and by what entitlement. Is demographic change supposed to rotate power or just add representation underneath a fixed hierarchy. The paper does not want to open that door because it has no way to close it cleanly.<\/p>\n

Fourth, reputational risk. Saying out loud that Black elites fear losing power sounds too close to right-wing racial rhetoric, even when true. The LAT\u2019s editors are allergic to anything that could be clipped, reframed, or weaponized against them as minimizing racism or questioning historic injustice. Silence is safer than precision.<\/p>\n

So the paper reaches for betrayal. Betrayal is moral without being racial. It personalizes what is actually a structural conflict. It allows Black outrage to be voiced without explaining why it is so intense. It lets the reader feel the heat without seeing the wiring.<\/p>\n

You can see this in what the article does do. It quotes Black figures expressing rage. It invokes music, crime metaphors, and wounded trust. But it never asks why this challenge triggers such disproportionate fury compared to other mayoral contests. That omission is not accidental.<\/p>\n

The race angle is explosive precisely because it reveals that progressive multiethnic politics still has internal hierarchies. The LAT cannot acknowledge that without undermining the moral authority of the coalition it depends on.<\/p>\n

So the silence is the tell. When elite media refuses to name the most obvious variable, it is almost always because that variable points back at the power structure the media itself is embedded in.<\/p>\n

The moralization of this story is a tell. It is not just a tell of high stakes, it is evidence that raw coordination power is in doubt. When incumbents are confident they can win on performance or institutional leverage, they do not moralize. They proceduralize. They say process, experience, continuity, competence. Moral language appears when those tools are no longer sufficient.<\/p>\n

That is why the rhetoric here is so overheated.<\/p>\n

The Bass coalition is not arguing \u201cour housing metrics are better\u201d or \u201cInside Safe outperforms alternatives.\u201d Instead, it is arguing character. Betrayal. Backstabbing. Shakespeare. Those are reputational weapons, not policy ones. They are used to contaminate Raman socially, not refute her substantively.<\/p>\n

This also explains the Los Angeles Times\u2019 role. Los Angeles Times amplifies moral language when neutrality itself becomes destabilizing. In an internal elite conflict, staying technical invites bystanders to wait and see. Moralization collapses that option. It forces alignment now, before polling, donors, or endorsements can drift.<\/p>\n

Your three functions are right, and they map cleanly onto alliance mechanics.<\/p>\n

Mobilizing third parties is about converting ambient observers into allies. Moral outrage is a recruitment flare.<\/p>\n

Lowering rival status is about poisoning Raman\u2019s cooperative value. In alliance systems, unreliability is worse than incompetence. You can work around weak performance. You cannot coordinate with someone branded disloyal.<\/p>\n

Patchwork narratives are the clearest tell that morality is instrumental. Loyalty is suddenly sacred because it serves the current coalition. Had the direction of challenge been reversed, loyalty would be redescribed as complacency or machine politics. The value flips with the strategic need.<\/p>\n

One more point. Moralization also protects the incumbent\u2019s flank. By turning the contest into a question of ethics rather than outcomes, Bass supporters insulate her from blame. If the city is failing, that becomes secondary. The primary sin becomes Raman\u2019s audacity in challenging authority at all.<\/p>\n

So yes. The intensity of the betrayal frame is not confidence. It is anxiety. It signals that the alliance holding LA governance together no longer trusts that policy arguments or institutional momentum will carry the day. When that happens, coalitions reach for the oldest tool available. Moral fire.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Los Angeles Times reports: Raman\u2019s entry into the race, hours before the filing deadline, shocked the city\u2019s political elite and infuriated the mayor\u2019s supporters. Some observers called it a betrayal of Shakespearean proportions. Raman\u2019s name had appeared on a … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43035,34,50],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-169744","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-alliance-theory","category-blacks","category-los-angeles"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t