{"id":164588,"date":"2025-10-31T05:37:24","date_gmt":"2025-10-31T13:37:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=164588"},"modified":"2025-10-31T05:37:24","modified_gmt":"2025-10-31T13:37:24","slug":"the-news-wants-us-to-believe-china-won-the-trade-war-with-america","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=164588","title":{"rendered":"The News Wants Us To Believe China Won The Trade War With America"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I don&#8217;t have an opinion on that. I do think Trump is heading us in the right direction.<\/p>\n<h1>Media narrative: \u201cChina won the trade war with Trump\u201d<\/h1>\n<h2>What the evidence shows<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li>The 2018 trade war delivered limited headline gains for the U.S. on jobs and the overall deficit, per mainstream analyses. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/backgrounder\/contentious-us-china-trade-relationship\">Council on Foreign Relations<\/a><\/li>\n<li>China\u2019s export engine proved resilient and diversified markets despite tariffs. <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2508.06828\">arXiv working paper<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Framing effects matter. Comparative content analyses show U.S. and Chinese outlets told different \u201cwinner\u201d stories. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ac-journal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Media-as-a-Front-in-the-US-China-Trade-War-A-Transnational-Comparative-Framing-Analysis-of-US-and-Chinese-Newspapers.pdf\">Academic framing study<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2>Why \u201cChina won\u201d is an oversimplification<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Trade wars produce diffuse costs and mixed outcomes across sectors.<\/li>\n<li>China took damage too, while juggling growth, real estate stress, debt, and demographics.<\/li>\n<li>Victory language often reflects editorial framing more than clear endpoints. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ac-journal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Media-as-a-Front-in-the-US-China-Trade-War-A-Transnational-Comparative-Framing-Analysis-of-US-and-Chinese-Newspapers.pdf\">Study<\/a><\/li>\n<li>The contest has shifted into tech controls, supply chains, and export restrictions rather than ended. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/looming-trump-xi-meeting-revives-hope-us-china-trade-truce-2025-10-29\/\">Reuters<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>What the media might be doing<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Favoring dramatic clarity over messy reality.<\/li>\n<li>Selecting deficit and jobs datapoints that imply a scoreboard.<\/li>\n<li>Underplaying internal costs on both sides.<\/li>\n<li>Amplifying official messaging campaigns. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2025\/04\/17\/china-us-trade-war-propaganda\/\">Washington Post<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Bottom line<\/h2>\n<p>Too early and too binary to declare a definitive winner. China avoided a crushing defeat and kept leverage. The U.S. did not achieve transformational aims. The fight migrated into tech, investment, and standards where outcomes remain unsettled.<\/p>\n<h3>Further reading<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2025\/04\/17\/china-us-trade-war-propaganda\/\">Amid Trump\u2019s trade war, China launches a PR blitz<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/en\/international\/article\/2025\/05\/06\/duel-with-trump-has-strengthened-xi-at-home-and-abroad_6740987_4.html\">Le Monde on Xi\u2019s strengthened position<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2025\/may\/30\/trump-china-tariffs-trade\">Guardian roundup on tariffs and claims<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr>\n<h1>How Trump changed U.S.\u2013China relations since taking office on Jan. 20, 2025<\/h1>\n<h2>Key changes<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Tariffs and trade pressure restored<\/strong><br \/> Expansive tariff use tied to national emergency rationales and synthetic opioids. <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war\">Backgrounder<\/a> Parallel talks dangled tariff relief for concrete Chinese moves like farm purchases or resource access. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/show\/trump-and-xi-outline-deal-to-ease-u-s-china-trade-war-but-tensions-remain\">PBS NewsHour<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Tech, supply chain, and investment screening elevated<\/strong><br \/> Export controls and inbound investment limits expanded as core tools in the competition. <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/United_States_sanctions_against_China\">Sanctions overview<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Transactional bilateralism over coalitions<\/strong><br \/> Emphasis on direct deals and threats rather than allied frameworks. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.china-briefing.com\/news\/us-china-relations-in-the-trump-2-0-implications\/\">China Briefing analysis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>No structural grand bargain<\/strong><br \/> Longstanding issues like IP protection and state industrial policy remain unresolved. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/backgrounder\/contentious-us-china-trade-relationship\">CFR<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2>What this means<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Policy centers on geoeconomic rivalry across trade, tech, and capital flows.<\/li>\n<li>Higher regulatory volatility for firms tied to China-facing supply chains and markets.<\/li>\n<li>Windows for tactical d\u00e9tente exist where Beijing seeks targeted relief.<\/li>\n<li>Expect rapid shifts that raise legal and business risk.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Bottom line<\/h2>\n<p>The relationship is reframed around comprehensive competition rather than narrow trade imbalances. Tools include tariffs, controls, and case-by-case deals. Core structural frictions are intact, so the outlook stays uncertain.<\/p>\n<h3>Recent coverage<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/2025\/05\/14\/trump-tariffs-china-trade\/\">White House eased China tariffs after warnings of harm<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/en\/international\/article\/2025\/10\/30\/trump-xi-meeting-brings-temporary-lull-to-escalation-between-us-and-china_6746920_4.html\">Temporary lull after Trump\u2013Xi meeting<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/82126a13-e66b-4f3b-bb6d-74f165a291d0\">FT on an extended truce framework<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <\/body><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I don&#8217;t have an opinion on that. I do think Trump is heading us in the right direction. Media narrative: \u201cChina won the trade war with Trump\u201d What the evidence shows The 2018 trade war delivered limited headline gains for &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=164588\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21791,4708],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-164588","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-america","category-china"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164588","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=164588"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164588\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":164589,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164588\/revisions\/164589"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=164588"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=164588"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=164588"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}