{"id":163650,"date":"2025-09-12T17:19:56","date_gmt":"2025-09-13T01:19:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=163650"},"modified":"2025-09-12T17:34:55","modified_gmt":"2025-09-13T01:34:55","slug":"the-solutions-to-political-violence-in-america-and-how-leaders-can-restore-unity-with-robert-pape","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=163650","title":{"rendered":"Video: The Solutions to Political Violence in America and How Leaders Can Restore Unity, with Robert Pape"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/suPOewIaX68?si=Rx8SM9CHwHmy9ibb\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/p_0lCrVLWJk?si=yxZaCkNBO2OKiM66\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Mark Halperin:<br \/>\nWhat circumstances have led us to this moment\u2014economic, cultural, psychological? Why have we gotten here as a country?<\/p>\n<p>Robert Pape:<br \/>\nThere are social changes radicalizing our politics, which in turn are increasing support for political violence. As tragic as yesterday was, something like it was predictable. Our national surveys at the University of Chicago have, since summer 2021, shown rising support for political violence on both the right and the left\u2014higher than at any time since we began quarterly tracking. That\u2019s why I\u2019ve been writing op-eds warning we\u2019re on the brink of major political violence. We\u2019ve crossed a threshold. If left to its own devices, this can get worse. Your audience is important because you reach multiple parts of the country, and the problem spans multiple parts of the country.<\/p>\n<p>Halperin:<br \/>\nWhat, specifically, are people saying in your surveys? Are they telling pollsters that political violence is a good idea, a necessary evil, or inevitable because the other side will do it?<\/p>\n<p>Pape:<br \/>\nWe ask pointed questions, not just \u201cDo you support political violence?\u201d For example, in a nationally representative May survey with NORC (the gold standard), 39% of Democrats agreed that \u201cthe use of force\u201d would be justified to remove Donald Trump from the presidency. You might ask what \u201cuse of force\u201d means. Over four years of follow-up work\u2014focus groups, probes, expert surveys\u2014we\u2019ve found that 55% of respondents who endorse \u201cuse of force\u201d mean assassination, murder, killing, shooting, or a violent mob to remove someone. It\u2019s not all the same modality, but it is physical violence. About 40% interpret \u201cuse of force\u201d more softly (e.g., yelling). If you instead use the word \u201cviolence,\u201d only about one in ten interpret that as physical acts like shooting; 90% shift to the softer meanings. So wording matters.<\/p>\n<p>Halperin:<br \/>\nHistorically, how does this compare\u2014to the 1960s, or even the Civil War era? Is this unprecedented?<\/p>\n<p>Pape:<br \/>\nThere\u2019s an analog. I call our era \u201cviolent populism.\u201d I coined that term because between \u201ccivil war\u201d and \u201cnothing,\u201d there\u2019s a middle ground\u2014and that\u2019s where we are. Like the 1960s, major social change is producing radical politics. That social change makes political outcomes feel more fragile and more consequential, increasing support for political violence in the mainstream\u2014not just the fringe. The reasons today aren\u2019t identical to the 1960s, but globally it\u2019s common: social change often correlates with political violence. I\u2019ve studied this worldwide for 30 years; the last five I\u2019ve had to focus on the U.S. because it\u2019s become the critical case.<\/p>\n<p>Halperin:<br \/>\nWhen you say social upheaval, is it mostly economic? Or issues like trans rights, gay marriage? What exactly is provoking the reaction on left and right?<\/p>\n<p>Pape:<br \/>\nThere\u2019s one big social change, with others significant too. The big one: the U.S. is transitioning, for the first time in 250 years, from a white-majority democracy to a white-minority democracy. In 1990, the country was 76% non-Hispanic white. Today it\u2019s 57%. In the next 10\u201315 years\u2014by around 2035\u20132040, depending on deportations\u2014we\u2019ll be about 49% non-Hispanic white.<\/p>\n<p>Halperin:<br \/>\nHas any country gone from majority white to minority white before?<\/p>\n<p>Pape:<br \/>\nNot in those exact terms, but there are analogs\u2014Lebanon, Yugoslavia\u2014where demographic shifts interacted with who governs. For listeners wanting background, look at Donald Horowitz\u2019s work from the 1980s. He wasn\u2019t writing about the U.S., but the mechanism is familiar to experts: over decades, demographic change can create a disjuncture with political power, and that fuels instability.<\/p>\n<p>Mark Halperin:<br \/>\nLet\u2019s talk a little about solutions, because this is a grim picture you\u2019re painting with the data. You advise policymakers. What\u2019s required for this country to return to a societal sense that political violence is unacceptable\u2014that we can make change at the ballot box, through Congress, through lobbying, more peaceful means? What\u2019s required to reset people away from openness to political violence?<\/p>\n<p>Robert Pape:<br \/>\nThere are short-term things and longer-term things. Right now, because of the watershed moment of yesterday, millions of people who feel wounded and sorrowful over what happened\u2014because Charlie Kirk was so beloved\u2014may evolve from sorrow into anger, and then worse. We need to focus on the short term. The most important thing is for political leaders to condemn violence from their own constituents, their own side. We\u2019re seeing this from Democrats. We\u2019re also getting more evidence about the shooter\u2019s motives as we speak. There also needs to be restraint from the targeted side\u2019s supporters. This is tough. I\u2019ve been calling for this for years in my op-eds.<\/p>\n<p>Another idea I\u2019ve put forward is that all the former presidents should attend Charlie\u2019s funeral and make a big show of unity\u2014issue a joint statement, maybe even a joint interview\u2014to say that regardless of party, political violence is unacceptable.<\/p>\n<p>Halperin:<br \/>\nWould that kind of symbolic move be significant?<\/p>\n<p>Pape:<br \/>\nYes. And to add to your idea, after the funeral they could come to the University of Chicago on October 6, where we\u2019ve reserved a large forum. You could help moderate a discussion among the presidents that could be televised nationally. This is that level of importance. We haven\u2019t seen this surge in political violence since the 1960s. We now understand the causes better. The internet plays a role, but de-platforming hasn\u2019t stopped it\u2014that\u2019s because the internet is only a secondary factor. We\u2019re navigating a historic change, and we need historic responses by our leaders.<\/p>\n<p>Halperin:<br \/>\nWas President Trump\u2019s statement Wednesday night helpful\u2014when he said, \u201cWe\u2019re going to figure out who did this, and they\u2019re going to be punished\u201d? Did that tamp down political violence, or encourage it?<\/p>\n<p>Pape:<br \/>\nTwo things. First, for Donald Trump, that was a restrained statement. Second, he reflected the MAGA mood. His opening words were \u201csorrow\u201d and \u201canger.\u201d That sorrow will grow, and may evolve into anger. After 9\/11, leaders swore we would never be angry, but 18 months later we invaded Iraq with 70% public support. We did it because we were angry.<\/p>\n<p>Halperin:<br \/>\nSo it\u2019s not just presidents. Do governors, clergy, business leaders matter? Where do people get their signals about how to think about political violence?<\/p>\n<p>Pape:<br \/>\nAt all levels. All Democrats and Republicans\u2014governors, members of Congress, former presidents\u2014need to be involved. Presidents are the standard-bearers, but people also take cues from local leaders. That\u2019s why I\u2019ve worked with sheriffs\u2019 associations. They\u2019re trusted in their communities and carry significant weight. It\u2019s not just one group. Your idea about the funeral is spot on, but we need more than a one-and-done event. Politicians must put as much energy into tamping down violence among their own constituents as they put into running for office.<\/p>\n<p>Halperin:<br \/>\nWhat about deterrence through mechanics\u2014more security, more shows of force at events?<\/p>\n<p>Pape:<br \/>\nIn the short term, yes, that will happen. But Charlie Kirk, while prominent, was not an elected official. There are many others who are visible. Over time it\u2019s impossible to have perfect security, especially since personal addresses can be found online.<\/p>\n<p>Halperin:<br \/>\nIsn\u2019t there a big difference between \u201ccrazy people\u201d and those with a rational political motive? Isn\u2019t most of this just unstable individuals?<\/p>\n<p>Pape:<br \/>\nThese aren\u2019t alternative explanations. The more public support there is for political violence, the more \u201cvolatile actors\u201d on the edge will be nudged over the edge. The Secret Service did the best analysis of assassins in the U.S. in the late 1990s, covering nearly 100 cases. They found half had college or graduate education; about 40% had some degree of mental illness, but only a tiny fraction suffered hallucinations.<\/p>\n<p>Halperin:<br \/>\nAfter Charlie was assassinated, some say let\u2019s lower the temperature, others fear copycats or retaliation. Which does history suggest?<\/p>\n<p>Pape:<br \/>\nBoth pathways exist. Larger public support for political violence is one. Copycat or retaliation attacks are another. It\u2019s difficult to disentangle because events are often separated by months or years. But attackers study each other, learn from mistakes, and plan for weeks. Yesterday\u2019s attacker likely learned from prior failed attempts.<\/p>\n<p>Halperin:<br \/>\nLast one\u2014what gives you optimism?<\/p>\n<p>Pape:<br \/>\nSeventy percent of the public abhors political violence and supports joint calls to tamp it down. That\u2019s still a strong majority. Leaders can also see they have something at stake for themselves and their families, so their incentives align with the public. But we need them to act.<\/p>\n<p><A HREF=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Robert_Pape\">WIKIPEDIA<\/a>: <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Robert Anthony Pape (\/p\u00e6p\/; born April 24, 1960) is an American political scientist who studies national and international security affairs, with a focus on air power, political violence, social media propaganda, and terrorism. He is currently a professor of political science at the University of Chicago and founder and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I can&#8217;t believe this charlatan is a highly respected expert.<\/p>\n<p><A HREF=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/opinion\/census-misleads-race-ethnicity-mixed-hispanic-asian-white-black-diversity-index-11630250185?mod=opinion_lead_pos8\">John B. Judis wrote in the WSJ Aug. 29, 2021<\/a>: <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The most common reaction to the release of the 2020 census was summed up in the headline \u201cCensus Data show the number of white people fell.\u201d The data show the number of whites declining by 8.6%. This observation was often coupled with a political projection: that while gerrymandering could benefit Republicans in 2022, the political future belongs to the Democratic Party, which commands large majorities among minorities.<\/p>\n<p>But these conclusions about race and politics rely on misleading census results. Contrary to Democratic hopes and right-wing anxieties, America\u2019s white population didn\u2019t shrink much between 2010 and 2020 and might actually have grown.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRaces\u201d are defined not by biology but by cultural convention. As late as the early 20th century, many Anglo-Americans didn\u2019t identify Southern or Eastern Europeans as \u201cwhite.\u201d In 1918, 33-year-old Harry S. Truman, while visiting New York City, wrote his cousin: \u201cThis town has 8,000,000 people. 7,500,000 of \u2019em are of Israelish extraction. (400,000 wops and the rest are white people.)\u201d After World War II, Jews and Italians became identified as \u201cwhite.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Something similar seems to be happening to many Americans of Hispanic and Asian origin. About 3 in 10 Hispanics and Asians intermarry, usually to a white spouse. According to a 2016 study by economists Brian Duncan and Stephen J. Trejo, 35% of third-generation Hispanics of mixed parentage no longer identify as Hispanic; and 55% of third-generation Asian-Americans of mixed parentage no longer identify as Asian. A 2017 Pew report found that among Americans of Hispanic origin who don\u2019t identify themselves as Hispanic, 59% said that they were seen by others as white.<\/p>\n<p>The racial identity of Hispanics is especially confusing because the census asks about \u201cHispanic, Latino or Spanish origin\u201d separately from race. In the 2010 census, 53% of those who said they were of Hispanic origin checked off only \u201cwhite,\u201d a 58% increase in numbers from 2000. That rise in white Hispanics helped account for the increase in the number of whites from the prior census. But in the 2020 census, a mere 20.3% of Hispanics checked off only \u201cwhite,\u201d contributing to the 8.6% decline in the total number of people identifying only as white.<\/p>\n<p>That dramatic change probably stemmed not from a shift in social consciousness or demographics, but from a subtle change in the 2020 question about race. In 2010 the census asked respondents to check off whether they were white, black or African-American, American Indian or Alaska Native, various varieties of Asian or Pacific Islander, and \u201csome other race.\u201d They may check off as many race boxes as are applicable.<\/p>\n<p>But in 2020 the census asked respondents who checked off \u201cwhite\u201d to specify their nationality: \u201cPrint, for example, German, Irish, Italian, Lebanese, Egyptian, etc.\u201d No Spanish-speaking nationality was listed. That likely created the impression that Hispanic was another race, notwithstanding the previous question\u2019s disclaimer that \u201cHispanic origins are not races.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Thus, many Hispanics who would have checked off white alone in 2010 may have checked \u201cwhite\u201d and \u201csome other race\u201d in 2020. The number of Hispanics checking two or more boxes increased by 567% from 2010 and make up about two-thirds of those who checked both boxes. Seventy-one percent of the population checked white in 2020, either alone or with one or more other boxes\u2014an increase of 1.9% from 2010. It is very possible that if the census hadn\u2019t changed the race question in 2020, the number of \u201cwhites\u201d might not have declined at all or declined only slightly. The number certainly wouldn\u2019t have fallen 8.6%.<\/p>\n<p>Over time, social mobility and intermarriage will likely further weaken the distinction between Americans identified as white and those with Asian and Hispanic ancestry. As sociologist Richard Alba has argued, census projections that the U.S. will become a \u201cmajority minority\u201d nation by 2045 are likely to prove false.<\/p>\n<p>To confuse matters more, the census introduced in 2020 a \u201cdiversity index\u201d that filtered out Hispanics who considered themselves \u201cwhite\u201d by creating a quasiracial category of 57.8% \u201cnon-Hispanic whites.\u201d This was the percentage most commentators reported as \u201cwhites.\u201d It eliminated the 20.3% of people of Hispanic origin who still checked off only \u201cwhite.\u201d The authors of the census appear determined to fuel nativist fears that whites are being \u201creplaced\u201d and liberal hopes of a growing minority-based Democratic majority.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>ChatGPT notes: <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Here are the strongest counterarguments you\u2019ll hear (or read) against Robert Pape\u2019s claim that the U.S. is moving from a \u201cwhite-majority democracy to a white-minority democracy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>1. Census Categories Are Artificial and Shifting<\/p>\n<p>Pape relies on the \u201cnon-Hispanic white alone\u201d category, which has indeed fallen to ~57% in 2020 and is projected to dip below 50% around 2035\u20132045.<\/p>\n<p>But as John Judis (WSJ) and Richard Alba (CUNY) point out, that\u2019s a census artifact. In 2020, the race question changed, and many Hispanics who had checked \u201cwhite only\u201d in 2010 instead checked \u201cwhite + some other race.\u201d That created the illusion of an 8.6% decline in whites.<\/p>\n<p>If you count all who checked \u201cwhite\u201d in any way (alone or mixed), the white share was actually 71% in 2020 \u2014 slightly higher than in 2010.<\/p>\n<p>2. Assimilation and Intermarriage Undercut the \u201cMinority\u201d Framing<\/p>\n<p>Intermarriage rates are high: ~30% of Hispanics and Asians marry whites.<\/p>\n<p>Studies show that by the third generation, 35% of Hispanics and 55% of Asians with mixed ancestry no longer identify as Hispanic\/Asian. Many identify (and are seen) as white.<\/p>\n<p>In lived social reality, these groups often assimilate into the white mainstream, meaning the sharp \u201cwhite vs. minority\u201d divide is blunted over time.<\/p>\n<p>3. \u201cMajority-Minority Nation\u201d Projections Are Misleading<\/p>\n<p>The Census Bureau\u2019s \u201cdiversity index\u201d filters out Hispanics who identify as white, narrowing \u201cwhite\u201d to \u201cnon-Hispanic white.\u201d That\u2019s what fuels headlines about whites \u201cshrinking.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Richard Alba argues this framing is misleading because it assumes permanent, impermeable boundaries between groups. In practice, categories blur: Irish, Italians, Jews were once seen as nonwhite but became white. Something similar may be happening with parts of Hispanic and Asian populations.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, the U.S. may never truly be a \u201cwhite-minority nation\u201d in the stark way Pape describes.<\/p>\n<p>4. Political Behavior Doesn\u2019t Map Cleanly to Census Boxes<\/p>\n<p>Pape links demographic change directly to rising political violence and \u201cradicalized\u201d politics.<\/p>\n<p>Critics argue that political coalitions aren\u2019t locked to census identities. Second- and third-generation Hispanics\/Asians are already trending more Republican in some areas (e.g., Miami, South Texas).<\/p>\n<p>So the \u201cthreat\u201d narrative tied to whites losing majority status may be overstated if assimilation and partisan realignment reduce the salience of racial blocs.<\/p>\n<p>Bottom line: Pape\u2019s warning about social upheaval tied to \u201cwhites becoming a minority\u201d is based on the narrowest census measure and may overstate the demographic rupture. Critics like Judis and Alba argue the real story is more continuity than rupture: broad assimilation, fuzzy boundaries, and a slower, less dramatic shift.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mark Halperin: What circumstances have led us to this moment\u2014economic, cultural, psychological? Why have we gotten here as a country? Robert Pape: There are social changes radicalizing our politics, which in turn are increasing support for political violence. 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