{"id":158646,"date":"2025-01-20T12:07:03","date_gmt":"2025-01-20T20:07:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=158646"},"modified":"2025-01-20T12:07:03","modified_gmt":"2025-01-20T20:07:03","slug":"politico-an-expert-in-grand-strategy-thinks-trump-is-on-to-something-do-you-want-a-future-in-which-canada-defects-to-the-eu-russia-rules-the-arctic-and-china-runs-latin-america-thats-the-d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lukeford.net\/blog\/?p=158646","title":{"rendered":"Politico: An Expert in Grand Strategy Thinks Trump Is on to Something Do you want a future in which Canada defects to the EU, Russia rules the Arctic and China runs Latin America? That\u2019s the default outcome of non-action."},"content":{"rendered":"

Thomas Barnett writes for Politico Jan. 16, 2025<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Three key trends animate the globe right now: (a) an East-West decoupling dynamic, (b) a re-regionalization imperative along North-South lines that brings \u201cnear-shoring\u201d production close to home markets, and (c) a growing superpower clash animating all these \u201craces\u201d \u2014 namely, adapting to climate change, winning the energy transition, achieving AI supremacy, etc.<\/p>\n

Trump, love him or loath him, sees just enough of this world and the fear it generates to know the right plan of attack.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s approach to international affairs reflects Americans\u2019 judgment that we are done building a world order \u2014 which we\u2019ve overseen from 1954 to 2008 \u2014and now must vigorously embrace an aggressively competitive approach to this multipolar world; in other words, be less the generous market-maker and more the selfish market-player.<\/p>\n

The world\u2019s superpowers (U.S., Europe, Russia, India, China) fear one another more and more. We sense an imperative in this re-regionalization\/decoupling era \u2014 one that screams get yours now before somebody else does!<\/p>\n

Russia evinces that ambition in the nastiest ways (see Georgia, Ukraine). China, presently globalization\u2019s premier integrating power, does so systematically with its Belt and Road Initiative, securing long and critical supply chains across the world through that multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure building scheme. India is just beginning to think and act along such lines, for now instinctively pushing back against China\u2019s efforts to integrate South Asia into its global value chains \u2014 in effect, boxing in New Delhi\u2019s ongoing \u201crise.\u201d<\/p>\n

Europe and the U.S., with Trump\u2019s return, seem destined to complete their conscious uncoupling like two self-absorbed celebrities whose career needs no longer jibe. And just as Russia has sought to put the pieces back together of its empire, we now spot the same acquisitive rumblings within Western ranks.<\/p>\n

Trump has long argued that Europe and Canada both \u201cowe\u201d America vast sums of money for defending them for decades against the Soviet\/Russian threat. He now implies that America deserves Greenland as compensation for that strategic debt, arguing that we\u2019ll do a better job of developing and defending Greenland than tiny Denmark has ever managed.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Thomas Barnett writes for Politico Jan. 16, 2025: Three key trends animate the globe right now: (a) an East-West decoupling dynamic, (b) a re-regionalization imperative along North-South lines that brings \u201cnear-shoring\u201d production close to home markets, and (c) a growing … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42984],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-158646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-greenland"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t