A Jewish friend says: There is an obvious divergence in the polls, with the Los Angeles Times\u2019 poll the outlier.\u00a0 It has a different polling methodology in that the same persons have been polled since the polling started so it does reflect voters changing their minds.\u00a0 Whether it is more accurate than traditional polling methods drawing a different sample to poll will be proven after the results are in.
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\nAlmost all the national polls show a \u201ctightening\u201d of the race, especially since Comey made his announcement a couple of weeks ago.\u00a0 It also remains to be seen whether Comey\u2019s memo of today makes any meaningful difference in the results.
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\nPolitico ran a story earlier this week based on a Morning Consult Poll that they said showed that there isn\u2019t much difference in how persons say they will vote based on whether they are\u00a0 interviewed by a human being or responding to on-line anonymous questions.\u00a0 The theory was that Trump supporters may be reluctant to admit their support of Trump to a human being.\u00a0 Overall Trump did narrow the gap based on the entire sample from 5 points to 3 points, and among those earning $50K a year or more from 10 points to 1 point.
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\nThere also is a big difference in the samples for some polls among, registered voters, likely voters and voters who have made up their mind.\u00a0 Apparently Trump holds a not insignificant lead among voters who have decided who they will vote for.
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\nSome sites that fervently back Trump-The Conservative Treehouse and The Gateway Pundit \u2013 think that there is a \u201cmonster vote\u201d out there of up to 73 million persons who will cast ballots for Trump.\u00a0 Since most projections are the total number of\u00a0 voters will be around 120 million persons, this would, if true, deliver a blow out-mandate type of election.\u00a0\u00a0
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\nVirtually, all establishment pundits and pollsters have weighed in that this won\u2019t happen.
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\nThe Trump supporters also say that the clear enthusiasm gap between the Trump personal appearances at rallies and those of Clinton show that Trump voters are more numerous and more committed to vote than the Clinton supporters.\u00a0 It is worth recalling that this same pattern was raised by Mitt Romney supporters in 2012 because he was filling areas with fervent supporters, yet he lost the election by a margin predicted by the polls.
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\nBefore I get to the prediction of the election, if Trump wins the election, it will\u00a0 be the death knell for traditional political consultants and even traditional grass roots activism and get out the vote operations.\u00a0 It will be very damaging to those who create, buy and broadcast political advertising.\u00a0 It will be very damaging to traditional media ways of covering elections.\u00a0 (Much of this media damage will be self inflicted because of the obviously one sided coverage of the campaign to favor Clinton, and the rest because the Wikileaks reveals the close relationship between many of the top \u201creporters\u201d and the Democrats.\u00a0 I think that most persons realize that reporters and journalists have to cultivate sources and relationships, but much of what has been released in the emails goes far beyond that)\u00a0 However if Clinton wins the election almost everyone who would be shook up by a Trump victory will go back to\u00a0 business as usual, although there will a continuing diminution, at least as far as the press goes, in influence, since traditional print media are all losing money, and a significant minority (if not an outright majority) no longer trusts the mass media.
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\nThe election will come down to a few states.\u00a0\u00a0 What is clear is that African American participation (relative to the rest of the electorate) is down and that a higher percentage of Blacks will support Trump than have supported Republican presidential candidates in decades.\u00a0 It does look like Latino participation is up, but it really must be\u00a0 broken down into subgroups of Latinos- Mexicans, Central Americans, Cubans, and Puerto Ricans.
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\nThe Cubans are typically a strong Republican contingent\u00a0 and are very important to the Republicans in Florida.\u00a0 However, as a result of the economic distress in Puerto Rico, a number of Puerto Ricans, who typically support Democrats are voting in Florida.\u00a0 Large numbers of Mexican and Central American immigrants now live in all parts of the country.\u00a0 However, a large percentage of them outside the Southwest (California, Nevada, Arizona, New\u00a0 Mexico and Texas) are illegals and should not be able to vote.\u00a0
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\nIt is not exactly clear how strong Clinton\u2019s support among women is.\u00a0 She certainly has the strong backing of single or unmarried women over fifty, but this may not be true for married women or younger women.\u00a0 Since this is the centerpiece of her support, how these demographics break will be instrumental in calling the election.\u00a0
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\nIt is also not clear whether millennials (or Bernie Bros) will support Clinton.\u00a0\u00a0 Clinton\u2019s campaigning is based on stirring up fear among this group of Trump presidency, but their personal loyalty to Sanders, in light of the Wikileaks comments about Sanders) and Clinton\u2019s continuing close relationship with investment banks may either lead them to abstain for voting or even vote for Trump.\u00a0
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\nIn terms of watching the election, if Clinton carries Florida, she will win the election.\u00a0 If Trump carries Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire and either carries or comes close in Virginia, Trump will likely win.\u00a0 If Trump does not come close in Virginia, we have to wait until we see the results of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota.\u00a0 If Trump carries Pennsylvania he will likely win.\u00a0\u00a0 If he carries Michigan and either Wisconsin or Minnesota he will likely win.
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\nPat Caddell, Jimmy Carter\u2019s pollster, who has been very critical of the Democrats, says Trump can win if he points out how he and Clinton differ on the issues, since Trump\u2019s positions are more popular.\u00a0 Trump has not followed this advice\u00a0 but rather run the 2 minute commercial, now criticized as anti semitic by Josh Marshall and Al Franken.\u00a0\u00a0 Scott Adams thinks the commercial is very persuasive and that Clinton cannot really\u00a0 counter it.
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\nMy prediction is that Trump will win the election, although narrowly and not in a blow out.\u00a0\u00a0 This despite the superior \u201cground game\u201d that Clinton has, her early voting advantage (although this has been disputed) and despite the unprecedented intervention in the election by Obama who is more popular by far than either Trump or Clinton and fears he has stirred up against Trump.\u00a0
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\nDespite this prediction, it is possible that Clinton will pull it out, and it is not impossible that Trump will win the electoral vote yet lose the popular vote by a margin of a million or more opening himself up to attacks that his presidency lacks consensus and is illegitimate.
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\nAssuming there is no ongoing litigation challenging some state\u2019s results, the time between the election and inauguration will be most interesting.\u00a0 I don\u2019t think any outgoing president has attacked the other parties candidates in such harsh terms \u2013 yet Trump and Obama will have to work together for the transition.\u00a0\u00a0 There is the possibility that the Republican congress may enact legislation that they know they can\u2019t get through under Trump for Obama to sign, creating even more fissures in the Republican party.
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\nI do think the consequence of the demonization by each candidate of the other, will certainly lead to protests, likely lead to riots and possibly lead to insurrection by the followers of the defeated candidate. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A Jewish friend says: There is an obvious divergence in the polls, with the Los Angeles Times\u2019 poll the outlier.\u00a0 It has a different polling methodology in that the same persons have been polled since the polling started so it … Continue reading